High School Sports Blog

Maxwell First Round summary

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It's playoff time: North Gwinnett players run onto the field before Friday's 51-14 win over Shiloh in the Class AAAAAAA playoffs. (Jason Getz/Special)
By Loren Maxwell
Nov 19, 2019

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 422 teams throughout the 2019 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

» MORE: GHSA football playoff schedule, brackets

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 0.09%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,013 of 2,169 total games including 1 tie(s) (92.83%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.66 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.01

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Lowndes11-0100.681Valdosta9-281.93
2Colquitt County9-289.312Dacula11-076.82
3McEachern11-085.393Lee County10-176.79
4North Gwinnett10-184.644Harrison11-072.97
5Grayson10-181.165Coffee8-368.97
6Marietta9-280.646Allatoona8-2-163.62
7Mill Creek9-275.497Johns Creek10-162.75
8Archer8-371.588Mays10-159.17
9Parkview10-171.569Houston County6-558.84
10Camden County7-368.6510Lanier10-157.82
11Milton8-364.9211Glynn Academy6-453.24
12Collins Hill6-563.6612Dalton7-452.53
13North Cobb7-462.6713Stephenson10-151.86
14Hillgrove7-462.0114South Paulding9-251.73
15Newton7-460.0315Creekside7-450.79
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Carrollton11-075.371Cartersville11-072.07
2Warner Robins10-173.162Woodward Academy11-071.90
3Buford10-167.753Marist10-169.45
4Ware County8-366.754Blessed Trinity10-168.23
5Rome9-266.265Sandy Creek10-167.54
6Dutchtown10-163.556West Laurens10-161.65
7Kell9-261.037Oconee County10-160.14
8Jones County10-160.018Denmark7-358.72
9Wayne County8-258.019Flowery Branch7-456.73
10Veterans9-257.7210Carver (Columbus)10-152.11
11Griffin10-157.4711Cedartown5-649.74
12Bainbridge7-455.5212North Oconee10-149.60
13Clarke Central8-353.7413Troup6-549.05
14Statesboro5-551.5714Burke County8-348.61
15South Effingham6-550.6615Cairo8-348.39
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove9-268.961Rabun County11-069.12
2Peach County10-168.272Rockmart11-061.14
3Pierce County11-063.783Hapeville Charter9-1-160.22
4Jefferson9-159.664Callaway10-156.08
5Greater Atlanta Christian10-157.975Dublin10-151.00
6Crisp County8-355.436Brooks County7-446.18
7North Murray10-155.097Fitzgerald8-342.91
8Jenkins10-154.038Thomasville7-442.89
9Appling County9-250.539Pepperell9-242.13
10Westminster (Atlanta)6-548.0410Bremen8-341.64
11Hart County9-247.6911Union County10-141.35
12Dawson County8-347.6512Douglass10-140.62
13Calhoun10-147.3113Washington County7-440.25
14North Hall8-346.4314Swainsboro8-337.70
15Lovett7-445.1415Bleckley County7-437.09
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Irwin County9-064.561Holy Innocents10-069.16
2Clinch County9-153.702Eagle's Landing Christian9-166.36
3Wilcox County9-240.233Fellowship Christian10-065.75
4Bowdon8-238.274Athens Academy10-064.39
5Mitchell County9-137.175Darlington9-152.76
6Commerce9-235.746Wesleyan9-247.11
7Pelham9-130.447Christian Heritage9-144.92
8Lincoln County8-229.208Prince Avenue Christian9-244.76
9Johnson County8-228.639Hebron Christian7-442.34
10Marion County8-227.0210Savannah Country Day10-036.56
11Manchester9-226.1611North Cobb Christian8-335.14
12Turner County7-423.0112Mount de Sales10-033.11
13Schley County7-418.8613Whitefield Academy7-432.36
14Emanuel County Institute6-518.7114Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)7-430.67
15Telfair County4-616.4515St. Francis7-430.37

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating SchStr Rank
1 [1]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA11-0100.6865.813 [3]
2 [2]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA9-289.3169.121 [1]
3 [3]McEachern3 - AAAAAAA11-085.3955.0615 [12]
4 [4]North Gwinnett6 - AAAAAAA10-184.6451.6722 [17]
5 [1]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA9-281.9357.579 [2]
6 [5]Grayson8 - AAAAAAA10-181.1656.9110 [8]
7 [6]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA9-280.6464.704 [4]
8 [2]Dacula8 - AAAAAA11-076.8242.7089 [14]
9 [3]Lee County1 - AAAAAA10-176.7947.2048 [7]
10 [7]Mill Creek6 - AAAAAAA9-275.4955.9713 [10]
11 [1]Carrollton7 - AAAAA11-075.3736.99147 [31]
12 [2]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA10-173.1649.2635 [6]
13 [4]Harrison6 - AAAAAA11-072.9737.07146 [38]
14 [1]Cartersville5 - AAAA11-072.0744.7869 [13]
15 [2]Woodward Academy4 - AAAA11-071.9019.41330 [51]
16 [8]Archer8 - AAAAAAA8-371.5858.547 [6]
17 [9]Parkview7 - AAAAAAA10-171.5643.3584 [41]
18 [3]Marist7 - AAAA10-169.4545.5563 [11]
19 [1]Holy Innocents5 - A10-069.1620.32317 [19]
20 [1]Rabun County8 - AA11-069.1220.00323 [34]
21 [5]Coffee1 - AAAAAA8-368.9750.1428 [5]
22 [1]Cedar Grove5 - AAA9-268.9636.52151 [6]
23 [10]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA7-368.6562.195 [5]
24 [2]Peach County4 - AAA10-168.2731.00201 [17]
25 [4]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAA10-168.2347.5647 [3]
26 [3]Buford8 - AAAAA10-167.7541.44100 [21]
27 [5]Sandy Creek5 - AAAA10-167.5441.09102 [18]
28 [4]Ware County2 - AAAAA8-366.7553.3517 [1]
29 [2]Eagle's Landing Christian5 - A9-166.3628.79226 [4]
30 [5]Rome7 - AAAAA9-266.2634.39167 [35]
31 [3]Fellowship Christian6 - A10-065.7516.06352 [27]
32 [11]Milton5 - AAAAAAA8-364.9246.2458 [33]
33 [1]Irwin County2 - A9-064.5621.34303 [9]
34 [4]Athens Academy8 - A10-064.3924.02270 [12]
35 [3]Pierce County2 - AAA11-063.7821.68295 [48]
36 [12]Collins Hill6 - AAAAAAA6-563.6657.888 [7]
37 [6]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA8-2-163.6244.8167 [10]
38 [6]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA10-163.5543.8078 [14]
39 [7]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA10-162.7532.59185 [49]
40 [13]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA7-462.6752.6719 [14]
41 [14]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA7-462.0151.1424 [18]
42 [6]West Laurens2 - AAAA10-161.6537.07145 [26]
43 [2]Rockmart7 - AA11-061.1418.55338 [38]
44 [7]Kell7 - AAAAA9-261.0337.17144 [30]
45 [3]Hapeville Charter6 - AA9-1-160.2221.81291 [23]
46 [7]Oconee County8 - AAAA10-160.1438.63131 [22]
47 [15]Newton8 - AAAAAAA7-460.0352.0621 [16]
48 [8]Jones County4 - AAAAA10-160.0143.4082 [15]
49 [4]Jefferson8 - AAA9-159.6629.65214 [22]
50 [8]Mays5 - AAAAAA10-159.1739.15127 [32]
51 [16]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA6-558.9456.4911 [9]
52 [17]Roswell4 - AAAAAAA8-258.9139.52120 [44]
53 [9]Houston County1 - AAAAAA6-558.8456.2812 [3]
54 [8]Denmark7 - AAAA7-358.7242.7488 [15]
55 [9]Wayne County2 - AAAAA8-258.0146.5255 [10]
56 [5]Greater Atlanta Christian7 - AAA10-157.9736.06153 [7]
57 [10]Lanier8 - AAAAAA10-157.8240.00113 [25]
58 [10]Veterans1 - AAAAA9-257.7246.9551 [8]
59 [11]Griffin3 - AAAAA10-157.4736.00154 [33]
60 [9]Flowery Branch7 - AAAA7-456.7346.7453 [5]
61 [4]Callaway5 - AA10-156.0820.05321 [33]
62 [18]Cherokee4 - AAAAAAA8-355.7945.5761 [34]
63 [12]Bainbridge1 - AAAAA7-455.5250.1129 [4]
64 [6]Crisp County1 - AAA8-355.4340.48107 [2]
65 [19]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA3-755.1166.772 [2]
66 [7]North Murray6 - AAA10-155.0924.85258 [39]
67 [20]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA6-554.8448.0744 [30]
68 [21]Shiloh8 - AAAAAAA7-454.7444.2175 [36]
69 [8]Jenkins3 - AAA10-154.0321.81292 [46]
70 [13]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA8-353.7441.5298 [20]
71 [2]Clinch County2 - A9-153.7024.78259 [4]
72 [22]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA6-553.6251.0225 [19]
73 [11]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA6-453.2445.0964 [9]
74 [5]Darlington6 - A9-152.7628.37230 [5]
75 [12]Dalton6 - AAAAAA7-452.5336.91148 [39]
76 [23]Mountain View6 - AAAAAAA5-652.1255.2814 [11]
77 [10]Carver (Columbus)1 - AAAA10-152.1127.38240 [38]
78 [24]Walton4 - AAAAAAA6-552.0849.9230 [21]
79 [13]Stephenson4 - AAAAAA10-151.8631.22195 [53]
80 [14]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA9-251.7339.83116 [27]
81 [14]Statesboro2 - AAAAA5-551.5751.2423 [3]
82 [5]Dublin3 - AA10-151.0031.10198 [10]
83 [25]Westlake2 - AAAAAAA6-550.9149.6131 [22]
84 [15]Creekside5 - AAAAAA7-450.7942.1593 [16]
85 [15]South Effingham2 - AAAAA6-550.6649.1537 [7]
86 [16]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA8-350.5639.70118 [24]
87 [9]Appling County2 - AAA9-250.5326.36248 [35]
88 [16]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA7-350.2440.03112 [24]
89 [17]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA3-749.8361.206 [1]
90 [11]Cedartown5 - AAAA5-649.7448.8339 [2]
91 [12]North Oconee8 - AAAA10-149.6027.87236 [37]
92 [26]South Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA6-549.4049.2136 [25]
93 [17]Ola4 - AAAAA7-449.3742.9087 [18]
94 [13]Troup5 - AAAA6-549.0546.2457 [7]
95 [14]Burke County3 - AAAA8-348.6135.95155 [28]
96 [18]Starr's Mill3 - AAAAA8-348.5237.30143 [29]
97 [15]Cairo1 - AAAA8-348.3934.44165 [30]
98 [19]Union Grove4 - AAAAA7-348.3230.66206 [42]
99 [10]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA6-548.0444.3574 [1]
100 [11]Hart County8 - AAA9-247.6929.85212 [20]
101 [12]Dawson County7 - AAA8-347.6531.06199 [16]
102 [13]Calhoun6 - AAA10-147.3121.74294 [47]
103 [18]Alexander5 - AAAAAA6-547.3142.5891 [15]
104 [19]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA6-547.1540.97103 [20]
105 [6]Wesleyan5 - A9-247.1124.25266 [10]
106 [27]Etowah4 - AAAAAAA5-647.0748.5041 [27]
107 [20]Hiram7 - AAAAA6-546.9844.8566 [11]
108 [28]South Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA4-646.9650.9427 [20]
109 [29]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA6-546.8644.8168 [35]
110 [20]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA6-546.8543.9777 [12]
111 [14]North Hall7 - AAA8-346.4333.02179 [11]
112 [6]Brooks County1 - AA7-446.1839.03128 [3]
113 [16]Chapel Hill5 - AAAA5-546.0547.0649 [4]
114 [30]North Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA7-445.7440.69105 [43]
115 [21]Gainesville8 - AAAAAA5-645.4847.6246 [6]
116 [31]West Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA4-645.3747.6245 [31]
117 [15]Lovett5 - AAA7-445.1439.00129 [4]
118 [22]Alpharetta7 - AAAAAA7-445.0838.73130 [33]
119 [7]Christian Heritage6 - A9-144.9220.75313 [18]
120 [17]Thomson3 - AAAA6-544.8239.62119 [21]
121 [8]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A9-244.7618.29342 [24]
122 [21]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAAA8-344.7233.17177 [36]
123 [18]Perry2 - AAAA7-444.6237.75140 [25]
124 [23]Creekview6 - AAAAAA6-444.2739.41122 [30]
125 [19]Baldwin3 - AAAA5-643.7444.4373 [14]
126 [20]Mary Persons2 - AAAA6-543.4042.6090 [16]
127 [7]Fitzgerald1 - AA8-342.9129.57218 [12]
128 [8]Thomasville1 - AA7-442.8939.89114 [1]
129 [22]Riverdale3 - AAAAA7-442.6831.02200 [40]
130 [23]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA9-242.6621.20306 [51]
131 [24]Riverwood6 - AAAAA11-042.4821.18307 [52]
132 [24]Tucker4 - AAAAAA6-542.4539.27125 [31]
133 [9]Hebron Christian8 - A7-442.3431.21197 [2]
134 [32]Brookwood7 - AAAAAAA5-642.3142.3492 [42]
135 [9]Pepperell7 - AA9-242.1319.10333 [36]
136 [16]Benedictine3 - AAA8-341.9822.44285 [44]
137 [25]New Hampstead2 - AAAAA3-741.8653.0818 [2]
138 [10]Bremen5 - AA8-341.6425.62252 [16]
139 [21]St. Pius X8 - AAAA6-541.4140.94104 [19]
140 [11]Union County8 - AA10-141.3512.79367 [47]
141 [25]Sequoyah6 - AAAAAA5-540.9440.34109 [22]
142 [22]White County7 - AAAA5-540.8540.30110 [20]
143 [26]Harris County1 - AAAAA5-640.7346.5954 [9]
144 [33]Woodstock4 - AAAAAAA3-740.7248.5640 [26]
145 [12]Douglass6 - AA10-140.629.13389 [56]
146 [17]Liberty County2 - AAA6-340.4927.13242 [33]
147 [13]Washington County3 - AA7-440.2534.39166 [4]
148 [3]Wilcox County2 - A9-240.2311.10380 [25]
149 [26]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA3-840.0551.0026 [4]
150 [23]Americus-Sumter1 - AAAA6-539.9837.77139 [24]
151 [18]Jackson4 - AAA8-339.8925.85251 [36]
152 [34]Wheeler2 - AAAAAAA5-639.8243.7479 [38]
153 [27]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA5-539.6440.65106 [21]
154 [28]Morrow4 - AAAAAA6-539.3936.81150 [40]
155 [35]Rockdale County8 - AAAAAAA4-639.3649.3932 [23]
156 [27]Thomas County Central1 - AAAAA5-539.2639.41123 [25]
157 [19]Monroe Area8 - AAA7-438.9131.22194 [15]
158 [28]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA5-638.7642.0694 [19]
159 [24]Upson-Lee2 - AAAA4-738.7446.3556 [6]
160 [29]Evans3 - AAAAAA7-338.5630.27209 [57]
161 [4]Bowdon6 - A8-238.2727.83237 [2]
162 [25]Howard2 - AAAA5-537.8238.02135 [23]
163 [20]Pace Academy5 - AAA5-537.7939.24126 [3]
164 [21]Islands3 - AAA8-237.7618.50340 [54]
165 [14]Swainsboro2 - AA8-337.7025.35255 [18]
166 [30]Northview7 - AAAAAA6-537.2934.07171 [45]
167 [31]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA6-437.2831.22196 [53]
168 [5]Mitchell County1 - A9-137.17-14.70418 [48]
169 [15]Bleckley County3 - AA7-437.0930.86204 [11]
170 [32]North Atlanta7 - AAAAAA7-437.0830.73205 [54]
171 [10]Savannah Country Day3 - A10-036.5612.84366 [31]
172 [6]Commerce8 - A9-235.7412.04372 [21]
173 [29]East Paulding7 - AAAAA4-635.5543.1186 [17]
174 [26]Central (Carrollton)5 - AAAA3-735.4945.0365 [12]
175 [30]Columbia5 - AAAAA5-635.3331.80189 [39]
176 [33]M.L. King4 - AAAAAA7-435.1930.29208 [56]
177 [11]North Cobb Christian6 - A8-335.1423.36279 [13]
178 [22]Morgan County8 - AAA7-435.1229.76213 [21]
179 [27]Westover1 - AAAA6-434.8528.59227 [34]
180 [16]Metter2 - AA9-234.6817.27345 [40]
181 [28]Eastside4 - AAAA7-434.4022.27288 [46]
182 [23]Westside (Macon)4 - AAA6-534.4031.74190 [13]
183 [17]Northeast3 - AA5-534.2332.59184 [8]
184 [18]Dodge County3 - AA4-734.1539.29124 [2]
185 [36]Peachtree Ridge6 - AAAAAAA3-733.6348.2843 [29]
186 [24]Haralson County6 - AAA8-333.5019.58326 [52]
187 [29]Hardaway1 - AAAA7-433.4828.12234 [36]
188 [19]Jefferson County4 - AA9-233.3613.24365 [46]
189 [20]Toombs County2 - AA8-233.2614.51359 [45]
190 [12]Mount de Sales7 - A10-033.116.61401 [35]
191 [31]Loganville8 - AAAAA3-833.0440.45108 [23]
192 [34]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA4-632.9135.71156 [41]
193 [37]Central Gwinnett7 - AAAAAAA3-832.8549.2934 [24]
194 [35]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA7-332.7728.53228 [58]
195 [36]Pope7 - AAAAAA5-532.7234.20169 [44]
196 [30]Madison County8 - AAAA5-632.6936.86149 [27]
197 [37]Northgate5 - AAAAAA3-732.6041.9395 [17]
198 [13]Whitefield Academy6 - A7-432.3623.00283 [15]
199 [31]Shaw1 - AAAA6-432.2828.14233 [35]
200 [25]Fannin County7 - AAA6-532.1531.45192 [14]
201 [32]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA2-831.7444.4972 [13]
202 [38]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA3-731.3543.6380 [39]
203 [33]Carver (Atlanta)6 - AAAAA7-431.3523.60277 [47]
204 [38]Mundy's Mill4 - AAAAAA5-531.0431.55191 [51]
205 [39]Heritage (Conyers)3 - AAAAAA5-630.8432.80182 [48]
206 [14]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)5 - A7-430.6724.74260 [9]
207 [40]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA3-730.6239.85115 [26]
208 [7]Pelham1 - A9-130.44-14.86419 [49]
209 [15]St. Francis6 - A7-430.3721.25304 [17]
210 [39]Forsyth Central5 - AAAAAAA4-530.0027.48239 [47]
211 [21]Elbert County8 - AA6-529.7924.15267 [20]
212 [34]Cass7 - AAAAA4-629.7337.41142 [28]
213 [35]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA1-829.3849.3533 [5]
214 [8]Lincoln County7 - A8-229.208.71392 [30]
215 [41]Hughes5 - AAAAAA2-829.1244.6370 [11]
216 [16]Savannah Christian3 - A7-329.0914.15362 [30]
217 [42]Apalachee8 - AAAAAA3-728.9939.49121 [29]
218 [17]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A5-628.9328.89225 [3]
219 [32]Heritage (Ringgold)6 - AAAA8-328.9221.47300 [49]
220 [43]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA3-728.7640.13111 [23]
221 [9]Johnson County3 - A8-228.637.59398 [35]
222 [36]Decatur6 - AAAAA7-428.5920.89312 [53]
223 [33]Ridgeland6 - AAAA6-528.5826.82245 [39]
224 [22]Vidalia2 - AA7-428.4521.59296 [25]
225 [44]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)4 - AAAAAA3-728.3635.40159 [43]
226 [34]Pickens6 - AAAA6-528.0424.38264 [41]
227 [26]Sonoraville6 - AAA5-627.9628.51229 [30]
228 [35]Northwest Whitfield6 - AAAA7-427.8222.65284 [45]
229 [45]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA4-627.7832.10186 [50]
230 [18]George Walton Academy8 - A6-527.7019.04335 [23]
231 [46]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA2-827.4843.4083 [13]
232 [23]Heard County5 - AA4-727.4834.02172 [6]
233 [37]Whitewater3 - AAAAA2-827.4044.5871 [12]
234 [36]LaGrange5 - AAAA2-827.2645.5662 [10]
235 [24]Jeff Davis2 - AA7-327.0415.60354 [42]
236 [10]Marion County4 - A8-227.0211.12379 [24]
237 [25]Southwest3 - AA4-626.6733.97173 [7]
238 [38]Paulding County7 - AAAAA3-726.6341.37101 [22]
239 [26]Early County1 - AA5-626.5526.81246 [15]
240 [40]Discovery6 - AAAAAAA2-826.5252.6220 [15]
241 [27]South Atlanta6 - AA7-426.3515.25357 [44]
242 [11]Manchester4 - A9-226.168.08395 [32]
243 [47]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA3-725.9233.75176 [47]
244 [48]New Manchester5 - AAAAAA2-825.8437.99136 [35]
245 [49]River Ridge6 - AAAAAA3-725.3541.6197 [19]
246 [37]Chestatee7 - AAAA2-825.0445.5760 [9]
247 [27]Beach3 - AAA5-424.3721.35302 [49]
248 [38]Stephens County8 - AAAA1-924.3045.9659 [8]
249 [28]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA3-723.8837.99137 [5]
250 [39]Lithonia5 - AAAAA6-523.4623.05282 [48]
251 [29]Cook1 - AAA4-723.1329.62215 [25]
252 [12]Turner County2 - A7-423.0118.77336 [14]
253 [41]Lassiter4 - AAAAAAA1-922.6948.4542 [28]
254 [40]McIntosh3 - AAAAA3-722.3232.93181 [37]
255 [50]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAA3-722.1133.89175 [46]
256 [30]Adairsville6 - AAA5-621.9926.57247 [34]
257 [41]Villa Rica7 - AAAAA2-821.7038.59133 [27]
258 [42]Banneker6 - AAAAA4-621.5225.91250 [45]
259 [28]Harlem4 - AA7-421.4910.97382 [51]
260 [31]Central (Macon)4 - AAA3-821.4234.72164 [10]
261 [43]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA5-521.2621.48299 [49]
262 [29]Temple5 - AA6-521.2020.06320 [32]
263 [42]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA3-721.1535.34160 [45]
264 [30]Model7 - AA5-620.6221.39301 [26]
265 [51]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA2-820.6235.47158 [42]
266 [19]Mount Paran Christian6 - A6-420.5115.11358 [29]
267 [32]Monroe1 - AAA4-720.3630.15211 [19]
268 [39]Richmond Academy3 - AAAA4-620.2833.05178 [32]
269 [20]Brookstone4 - A7-420.0612.49370 [32]
270 [33]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA4-620.0023.70275 [43]
271 [21]First Presbyterian7 - A5-619.9119.41329 [21]
272 [31]Chattooga7 - AA5-619.8624.00271 [21]
273 [52]Greenbrier3 - AAAAAA2-919.7137.50141 [37]
274 [22]Aquinas7 - A7-419.5011.34378 [34]
275 [32]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - AA4-719.0629.50220 [13]
276 [40]Dougherty1 - AAAA2-818.9334.76163 [29]
277 [34]Stone Mountain5 - AAA3-718.9128.21232 [32]
278 [33]Hephzibah4 - AA7-318.876.81400 [59]
279 [13]Schley County4 - A7-418.868.64393 [31]
280 [35]Windsor Forest3 - AAA5-618.8018.72337 [53]
281 [14]Emanuel County Institute3 - A6-518.7114.27361 [18]
282 [23]Calvary Day3 - A6-518.1717.90343 [25]
283 [36]Jackson County8 - AAA3-717.5529.29221 [27]
284 [43]Kennesaw Mountain3 - AAAAAAA0-1017.2853.9916 [13]
285 [41]Hampton4 - AAAA5-617.0921.59297 [48]
286 [44]Fayette County3 - AAAAA2-816.9530.89202 [41]
287 [34]Lamar County5 - AA6-416.9412.15371 [49]
288 [35]Screven County4 - AA7-416.9310.31385 [53]
289 [45]Grady6 - AAAAA3-716.7126.84244 [44]
290 [15]Telfair County2 - A4-616.4520.02322 [12]
291 [16]Warren County7 - A7-416.147.31399 [36]
292 [44]Lambert5 - AAAAAAA0-1016.1243.6081 [40]
293 [42]Spalding2 - AAAA1-916.0641.4499 [17]
294 [37]Brantley County2 - AAA5-615.9120.94310 [50]
295 [38]Franklin County8 - AAA2-815.8331.90188 [12]
296 [43]LaFayette6 - AAAA3-715.7924.04269 [43]
297 [36]Washington6 - AA4-615.7619.75325 [35]
298 [17]Gordon Lee6 - A4-615.5822.40286 [7]
299 [18]Trion6 - A5-615.4420.89311 [11]
300 [46]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA1-915.3443.1485 [16]
301 [24]Stratford Academy7 - A4-715.2723.15280 [14]
302 [44]Luella4 - AAAA4-714.7724.57261 [40]
303 [19]Washington-Wilkes7 - A6-514.5813.51364 [20]
304 [25]Walker6 - A4-614.5522.31287 [16]
305 [20]McIntosh County Academy3 - A4-713.9819.52327 [13]
306 [26]Tattnall Square7 - A5-513.6416.53349 [26]
307 [47]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA4-713.5921.21305 [50]
308 [39]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA4-713.5419.80324 [51]
309 [37]Monticello8 - AA3-713.5025.57253 [17]
310 [40]East Hall7 - AAA2-813.4135.31161 [8]
311 [38]Putnam County8 - AA5-613.2821.78293 [24]
312 [48]Arabia Mountain5 - AAAAA2-913.2735.48157 [34]
313 [21]Claxton3 - A6-513.1111.66374 [22]
314 [22]Macon County4 - A6-512.7710.32384 [27]
315 [45]Gilmer6 - AAAA4-612.6917.16347 [53]
316 [45]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA0-1012.4347.0550 [32]
317 [39]Spencer5 - AA3-712.1523.69276 [22]
318 [41]Worth County1 - AAA2-811.5729.01223 [28]
319 [53]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA1-911.5446.8152 [8]
320 [27]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A3-711.3624.09268 [11]
321 [23]Lanier County2 - A3-711.0724.41263 [5]
322 [42]Pike County4 - AAA4-611.0515.84353 [56]
323 [24]Dooly County4 - A4-611.0316.10351 [16]
324 [25]Atkinson County2 - A3-710.4321.13308 [10]
325 [40]Berrien1 - AA2-810.3131.38193 [9]
326 [41]Therrell6 - AA3-710.2520.22319 [31]
327 [43]Murray County6 - AAA4-610.2518.44341 [55]
328 [49]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA1-910.1836.22152 [32]
329 [46]Northside (Columbus)1 - AAAA1-910.0232.96180 [33]
330 [54]Centennial7 - AAAAAA0-109.9539.72117 [28]
331 [55]Tri-Cities5 - AAAAAA0-109.6041.7596 [18]
332 [44]East Jackson8 - AAA3-79.3724.89257 [38]
333 [28]Athens Christian8 - A4-69.3419.42328 [20]
334 [47]Columbus1 - AAAA1-99.1733.91174 [31]
335 [42]Gordon Central7 - AA3-78.9120.59316 [29]
336 [48]McDonough4 - AAAA4-68.8719.04334 [52]
337 [26]Hancock Central7 - A5-58.617.89396 [33]
338 [45]Redan5 - AAA3-78.3728.25231 [31]
339 [27]Montgomery County3 - A5-58.0710.18386 [28]
340 [29]Riverside Military Academy8 - A5-56.705.56403 [36]
341 [46]Duluth6 - AAAAAAA1-96.6644.0376 [37]
342 [28]Chattahoochee County1 - A7-46.63-8.40413 [45]
343 [29]Taylor County4 - A5-65.9211.03381 [26]
344 [50]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA4-65.5917.22346 [54]
345 [56]Drew4 - AAAAAA1-95.5538.53134 [34]
346 [46]Lumpkin County7 - AAA1-95.2429.62216 [25]
347 [47]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA4-65.1019.18331 [48]
348 [43]Banks County8 - AA3-74.6516.22350 [41]
349 [30]Terrell County1 - A7-44.65-8.53414 [46]
350 [31]Treutlen3 - A5-54.221.40406 [39]
351 [30]Pinecrest Academy6 - A2-83.9019.11332 [22]
352 [47]Rutland4 - AAA2-83.6428.90224 [29]
353 [51]Chamblee5 - AAAAA1-83.3025.41254 [46]
354 [32]Wilkinson County7 - A2-83.2821.59298 [8]
355 [49]Salem4 - AAAA2-83.2121.87290 [47]
356 [52]Miller Grove5 - AAAAA0-103.2031.98187 [38]
357 [31]Strong Rock Christian5 - A2-83.1534.08170 [1]
358 [44]Laney4 - AA4-63.1110.66383 [52]
359 [45]East Laurens3 - AA1-93.0434.24168 [5]
360 [32]Lakeview Academy8 - A2-72.6427.36241 [7]
361 [48]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA2-82.3523.70274 [43]
362 [33]Jenkins County3 - A3-71.6411.39377 [23]
363 [50]North Clayton4 - AAAA2-81.5723.07281 [44]
364 [46]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA3-71.579.06390 [57]
365 [33]Pacelli4 - A5-51.293.35405 [37]
366 [49]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA2-81.2023.72273 [41]
367 [34]Greenville4 - A4-60.685.57402 [37]
368 [53]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA0-100.6338.61132 [26]
369 [47]Glenn Hills4 - AA4-60.1010.00387 [54]
370 [54]North Springs6 - AAAAA1-9-0.3027.62238 [43]
371 [50]Tattnall County2 - AAA1-9-0.3329.62217 [25]
372 [35]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A1-9-1.0423.59278 [6]
373 [51]Ringgold6 - AAA0-10-1.3429.57219 [26]
374 [36]Charlton County2 - A1-9-1.4530.26210 [1]
375 [57]Forest Park4 - AAAAAA1-9-1.4630.61207 [55]
376 [48]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA2-8-1.7420.71315 [28]
377 [51]Cross Creek3 - AAAA2-8-1.8024.31265 [42]
378 [34]Landmark Christian5 - A2-8-2.2527.01243 [8]
379 [49]Bacon County2 - AA1-9-2.3229.27222 [14]
380 [50]Dade County7 - AA2-8-2.5715.51355 [43]
381 [52]West Hall7 - AAAA0-10-3.2748.8438 [1]
382 [51]Butler4 - AA2-8-3.298.34394 [58]
383 [53]Southeast Whitfield6 - AAAA0-10-3.8821.05309 [50]
384 [52]Kendrick4 - AAA1-9-5.6424.94256 [37]
385 [52]Jordan5 - AA0-10-6.8820.72314 [27]
386 [54]Druid Hills4 - AAAA2-8-6.9811.60375 [54]
387 [53]Long County2 - AAA1-9-8.0835.06162 [9]
388 [37]Greene County7 - A1-9-8.5416.53348 [15]
389 [58]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-10-9.6437.98138 [36]
390 [38]Hawkinsville4 - A2-8-10.299.04391 [29]
391 [53]Oglethorpe County8 - AA2-8-10.7612.66369 [48]
392 [54]Savannah3 - AAA1-9-11.3822.03289 [45]
393 [48]Lakeside (Atlanta)7 - AAAAAAA0-10-11.8732.68183 [46]
394 [54]Coosa7 - AA1-9-12.0517.57344 [39]
395 [39]Twiggs County7 - A1-9-12.4914.29360 [17]
396 [40]Seminole County1 - A5-6-12.50-1.71409 [41]
397 [41]Portal3 - A1-9-12.8613.97363 [19]
398 [42]Central (Talbotton)4 - A2-8-14.914.48404 [38]
399 [43]Crawford County4 - A2-8-15.92-1.38408 [40]
400 [55]Towers5 - AAA1-9-16.9730.86203 [18]
401 [44]Miller County1 - A4-6-17.60-7.27412 [44]
402 [35]King's Ridge Christian6 - A1-9-18.0215.38356 [28]
403 [55]Josey4 - AA0-10-22.649.17388 [55]
404 [56]Groves3 - AAA0-9-23.7523.87272 [40]
405 [56]Social Circle8 - AA2-8-24.7011.71373 [50]
406 [36]Georgia Military College7 - A2-8-24.71-0.08407 [38]
407 [37]Providence Christian8 - A2-8-25.9011.47376 [33]
408 [38]Our Lady of Mercy5 - A0-10-26.4127.92235 [6]
409 [57]Armuchee7 - AA0-10-26.7618.55339 [38]
410 [45]Baconton Charter1 - A4-6-29.84-17.23420 [50]
411 [58]Bryan County2 - AA0-9-30.8924.47262 [19]
412 [55]Clarkston5 - AAAAA†0-10-32.3812.79368 [55]
413 [59]McNair6 - AA0-10-32.5320.23318 [30]
414 [46]Wheeler County3 - A1-9-34.987.81397 [34]
415 [47]Towns County8 - A0-10-37.9925.99249 [3]
416 [48]Calhoun County1 - A2-8-43.37-5.39411 [43]
417 [1]ACE Charter7 - A†3-5-45.63-11.79416 [1]
418 [2]Glascock County7 - A†2-7-55.54-37.55421 [2]
419 [49]Stewart County1 - A1-9-57.51-14.40417 [47]
420 [50]Randolph-Clay1 - A0-10-63.57-3.92410 [42]
421 [3]Pataula Charter1 - A†3-7-70.08-48.47422 [3]
422 [56]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA†0-10-89.08-9.86415 [56]
† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA94.4978.65
23 - AAAAAAA81.1363.18
31 - AAAAAA79.9767.55
46 - AAAAAAA77.1550.13
58 - AAAAAAA75.3658.57
67 - AAAA68.5349.68
77 - AAAAA68.2640.10
85 - AAAA67.7249.24
91 - AAAAA66.9652.89
108 - AAAAAA66.3144.93
116 - AAAAAA65.7441.63
122 - AAAAA64.5453.68
135 - A62.9128.67
144 - AAAAA62.1244.55
157 - AAAAAAA60.4831.70
164 - AAAAAAA59.8447.24
178 - AAAAA59.2736.30
185 - AAAAAAA58.5842.60
195 - AAA58.1132.53
205 - AAAAAA57.4239.13
212 - AAAAAAA55.9241.29
222 - AAAA55.5040.81
236 - A55.4323.79
 6-Div B - A49.7318.93
 6-Div A - A48.5029.69
248 - AAAA55.2041.51
252 - AAA55.0827.38
262 - A55.0524.54
274 - AAA53.7722.61
287 - AAAAAA53.6633.54
292 - AAAAAA53.5741.74
304 - AAAA53.5013.53
313 - AAAAA53.1536.27
328 - AA53.0815.15
337 - AAA52.8032.77
348 - A52.6719.55
 8-Div A - A53.6927.01
 8-Div B - A36.2912.50
358 - AAA52.3331.64
361 - AAAA50.2231.54
374 - AAAAAA49.3931.94
383 - AAAA48.3634.19
393 - AA48.0933.64
406 - AAA47.8423.40
417 - AA47.5912.53
426 - AA47.2918.03
431 - AA47.1835.09
445 - AA46.4023.45
453 - AAA45.8318.50
461 - AAA44.5625.01
473 - AAAAAA39.5328.38
482 - AA39.4624.13
496 - AAAAA38.3122.01
505 - AAAAA35.8019.67
516 - AAAA34.0320.68
523 - A34.0012.31
 3-Div A - A32.5917.49
 3-Div B - A23.207.02
537 - A31.5611.23
 7-Div A - A26.8512.70
 7-Div B - A25.299.88
544 - A28.207.34
 4-Div A - A26.7610.70
 4-Div B - A18.084.47
554 - AA27.978.02
561 - A26.88-14.81

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
10/18Dooly CountyCrawford County19 - 2025.9493.0%0.146
09/12StephensonMount Zion (Jonesboro)9 - 1423.5191.3%0.151
10/11Clarke CentralLoganville21 - 3819.7087.8%0.155
09/06Turner CountyTaylor County7 - 1216.0883.3%0.243
09/27ThomsonGrovetown12 - 1616.0383.2%0.249
11/01Carver (Atlanta)Lithia Springs14 - 1516.7684.2%0.254
10/03HamptonNorth Clayton7 - 815.5282.5%0.272
11/08McIntosh County AcademyTreutlen0 - 2710.7774.6%0.272
09/05PerryWestside (Macon)13 - 3310.2273.5%0.293
11/15Whitefield AcademyBrookstone7 - 1013.3179.1%0.295
11/08BufordClarke Central28 - 3113.0078.6%0.300
11/08Jones CountyStockbridge14 - 448.4569.9%0.314
11/08DublinWashington County23 - 2711.7676.4%0.315
09/06McIntoshMcDonough32 - 3312.4577.6%0.319
11/08WaltonWoodstock29 - 3012.3777.5%0.320

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
91.4411/01LowndesColquitt County28 - 1712.3877.5%
86.4408/24Colquitt CountyNorth Gwinnett17 - 64.6761.5%
84.6209/13Colquitt CountyValdosta49 - 506.3865.4%
83.4009/27LowndesValdosta24 - 019.7687.8%
83.2209/27Colquitt CountyGrayson31 - 79.1671.4%
82.6710/18McEachernMarietta14 - 123.7359.2%
80.8409/13GraysonMarietta28 - 141.5253.8%
78.4610/11North GwinnettMill Creek45 - 38.1569.3%
78.4310/25ValdostaLee County50 - 536.1464.9%
76.0208/30DaculaMill Creek24 - 212.3455.8%
74.9409/20Colquitt CountyWarner Robins31 - 1417.1684.8%
74.6010/18GraysonArcher34 - 318.5770.2%
74.3811/22Colquitt CountyParkview - 16.7584.2%
72.9409/13Mill CreekArcher10 - 74.9162.0%
72.1210/18ValdostaCoffee28 - 711.9576.8%

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Loren Maxwell

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