Sports

Maxwell End of Season Summary: Propst guides Packers to join historical elite

By Loren Maxwell
Dec 14, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

– Colquitt County topped Roswell in convincing fashion to win not only a second straight Class AAAAAA title, but a small trove of accolades from the computer as well:

Interestingly this year was also the highest rated seasons for Roswell and Mill Creek as well, both handily defeated by the Packers over the last two weekends. All three, along with a strong Grayson team, entered the semifinals undefeated before facing each other.

– Allatoona downed Glynn Academy in a close game to claim the AAAAA title. Allatoona was upended by East Paulding to open the season in what ended up being one of the season's least likely results, but then won 14 straight to close the season.

– Cartersville took the AAAA title by denying Buford their fourth straight. Both teams entered the championship game after having played relatively weak regular season schedules, but dominated each of their playoff opponents, including Buford's 35-18 defeat of previously undefeated Woodward Academy and Cartersville 38-7 drubbing of previously undefeated Bainbridge.

- Now, if there's any team that can complain about the computer underrating them, Westminster is it. The Wildcats, who started the season 3-4 before winning eight straight, were projected underdogs in each of the five rounds in the playoffs! Their amazing finish in the championship game only parallels their amazing finish to the season.

But although their rating has improved by nearly three touchdowns since the end of the regular season, the computer still can't quite overlook those early season losses and places Blessed Trinity and Calhoun ahead of them in the final ratings.

Still, I'm sure a quick glance at the trophy case soothes the sting :-)

- Pace Academy also played the underdog role for the last two games to win the AA championship. The Knights started in the semifinals by avenging their regular season loss to Greater Atlanta Christian and then routing Fitzgerald in the title game. They also achieved the highest rating in their school's relatively short history by two touchdowns. However, on the season as a whole, Greater Atlanta Christian edges them out in the final ratings.

- Clinch County is the third team to avenge a regular season loss in the championship game with a 24-7 victory over Irwin County to claim the Class A-Public title. From the start of the playoffs the computer pegged the Panthers as the favorites, but their eventual pairing with Irwin County, a fellow region member who had defeated them 28-12 in the regular season, made for an interesting rematch.

- Eagle's Landing Christian cruised to a 35-14 win over Aquinas in the Class A-Private championship game. ELCA faced the toughest schedule in Class A during the regular season, playing AAAAA Stockbridge, AAAA Woodward Academy, and AA Greater Atlanta Christian, all of whom were legitimate title contenders in higher classifications.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.10%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,045 of 2,241 total games including 2 tie(s) (91.30%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.10 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.67

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 15-0 104.95 1 Allatoona 14-1 77.13
2 Roswell 14-1 93.48 2 Northgate 12-2 71.71
3 Mill Creek 13-1 92.30 3 Glynn Academy 12-3 71.37
4 Grayson 13-1 89.92 4 Stockbridge 12-1 69.73
5 Archer 11-2 87.83 5 Houston County 11-2 69.29
6 McEachern 10-2 81.88 6 Ware County 11-3 69.15
7 Camden County 10-2 81.37 7 Mays 10-2 68.11
8 Peachtree Ridge 8-4 79.06 8 Stephenson 9-2 66.87
9 Lowndes 6-5 72.18 9 Starr's Mill 10-2 65.73
10 Valdosta 8-4 70.62 10 Coffee 10-2 64.62
11 Central Gwinnett 7-5 69.86 11 Lanier 11-1 63.77
12 Walton 9-2 69.38 12 Northside (Warner Robins) 9-2 62.70
13 South Forsyth 11-2 69.15 13 Jones County 9-2 62.68
14 Collins Hill 7-6 68.18 14 Drew 9-4 62.44
15 Westlake 10-3 67.84 15 Dalton 9-3 61.62
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Cartersville 15-0 84.25 1 Blessed Trinity 13-1-1 65.60
2 Buford 13-2 78.15 2 Calhoun 13-1 63.43
3 Woodward Academy 13-1 74.12 3 Westminster (Atlanta) 11-4 57.09
4 Bainbridge 13-1 67.64 4 Jefferson 10-2 56.34
5 Sandy Creek 9-3 63.37 5 Cedar Grove 11-2-1 55.84
6 St. Pius X 10-3 60.07 6 Elbert County 10-3 52.15
7 Marist 10-3 59.66 7 Peach County 9-3 47.35
8 Thomson 11-2 59.00 8 Adairsville 11-2 45.67
9 Jonesboro 11-2 58.24 9 Callaway 10-2 45.66
10 Worth County 8-4 57.66 10 Dodge County 11-1 45.48
11 Spalding 10-2 55.47 11 Oconee County 9-3 45.08
12 Mary Persons 11-1 54.42 12 Westside (Macon) 9-4 44.08
13 Liberty County 8-4 52.10 13 Hart County 7-4 42.93
14 Carrollton 6-6 51.14 14 Jackson 9-3 42.73
15 Burke County 7-4 49.11 15 Spencer 8-4 40.55
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 12-2 61.83 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 11-3 61.46
2 Pace Academy 13-2 60.14 2 Prince Avenue Christian 12-1 53.99
3 Fitzgerald 13-2 59.66 3 Clinch County 13-1 48.70
4 Benedictine 12-1 58.01 4 Aquinas 12-2 46.85
5 Brooks County 10-3 51.67 5 Mount Paran Christian 10-2 42.97
6 Wesleyan 9-3 51.17 6 Irwin County 10-3-1 42.66
7 Lovett 6-6 50.05 7 Stratford Academy 9-4 39.59
8 Jefferson County 11-3 49.85 8 Emanuel County Institute 11-2 38.47
9 Rabun County 11-2 49.64 9 Commerce 9-4 38.23
10 Macon County 10-3 43.43 10 Charlton County 7-3 36.71
11 Darlington 10-1 43.06 11 Trion 8-4 36.07
12 Screven County 10-2 41.89 12 Pinecrest Academy 10-2 35.82
13 Early County 7-4-1 40.56 13 Turner County 8-3 34.64
14 Hapeville 6-4 40.14 14 Savannah Christian 9-3 33.74
15 Model 9-2 37.65 15 Landmark Christian 7-4 33.01

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 15-0 104.95 66.34 6
2 [2] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 14-1 93.48 61.41 17
3 [3] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 13-1 92.30 61.35 18
4 [4] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 13-1 89.92 62.40 16
5 [5] Archer 8-AAAAAA 11-2 87.83 65.89 8
6 [1] Cartersville 7-AAAA 15-0 84.25 39.75 142
7 [6] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 10-2 81.88 59.19 22
8 [7] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 10-2 81.37 65.02 11
9 [8] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 8-4 79.06 64.41 13
10 [2] Buford 8-AAAA 13-2 78.15 36.80 173
11 [1] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 14-1 77.13 50.89 50
12 [3] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 13-1 74.12 45.15 95
13 [9] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 6-5 72.18 71.21 1
14 [2] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 12-2 71.71 46.82 79
15 [3] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 12-3 71.37 57.34 23
16 [10] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 8-4 70.62 61.11 20
17 [11] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 7-5 69.86 65.18 10
18 [4] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 12-1 69.73 43.34 113
19 [12] Walton 5-AAAAAA 9-2 69.38 53.19 36
20 [5] Houston County 2-AAAAA 11-2 69.29 42.08 121
21 [13] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 11-2 69.15 48.73 60
22 [6] Ware County 3-AAAAA 11-3 69.15 52.24 39
23 [14] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 7-6 68.18 62.88 15
24 [7] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 10-2 68.11 45.75 87
25 [15] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 10-3 67.84 46.18 85
26 [4] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 13-1 67.64 45.41 91
27 [8] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 9-2 66.87 36.38 180
28 [16] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 7-4 66.72 60.66 21
29 [17] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 8-3 66.69 53.80 34
30 [18] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 6-4 66.49 55.87 29
31 [19] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 5-5 65.86 67.71 3
32 [9] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 10-2 65.73 40.56 133
33 [1] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 13-1-1 65.60 43.47 111
34 [10] Coffee 3-AAAAA 10-2 64.62 44.49 100
35 [20] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 6-5 64.22 65.56 9
36 [21] Newton 2-AAAAAA 9-3 64.11 47.04 76
37 [11] Lanier 8-AAAAA 11-1 63.77 42.70 119
38 [2] Calhoun 6-AAA 13-1 63.43 28.36 257
39 [5] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 9-3 63.37 44.35 102
40 [12] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 9-2 62.70 40.96 128
41 [13] Jones County 2-AAAAA 9-2 62.68 36.54 179
42 [14] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 9-4 62.44 47.69 69
43 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 12-2 61.83 41.83 124
44 [15] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 9-3 61.62 49.11 57
45 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 11-3 61.46 34.67 196
46 [22] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 4-6 60.57 67.42 4
47 [2] Pace Academy 6-AA 13-2 60.14 38.98 154
48 [23] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 9-3 60.08 48.43 63
49 [6] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 10-3 60.07 39.89 139
50 [16] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 8-4 60.01 50.78 51
51 [24] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 5-5 59.85 63.85 14
52 [7] Marist 6-AAAA 10-3 59.66 38.74 156
53 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 13-2 59.66 38.98 153
54 [17] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 9-4 59.09 49.40 53
55 [8] Thomson 3-AAAA 11-2 59.00 39.20 150
56 [25] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 8-4 58.96 40.70 131
57 [18] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-3 58.91 44.74 97
58 [19] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 7-3 58.44 49.17 55
59 [9] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 11-2 58.24 42.93 115
60 [4] Benedictine 2-AA 12-1 58.01 30.90 229
61 [26] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 6-5 57.87 55.45 31
62 [27] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-5 57.75 51.69 42
63 [28] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 7-4 57.71 49.01 59
64 [20] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 9-3 57.66 45.90 86
65 [10] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 8-4 57.66 48.29 65
66 [29] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 5-6 57.64 56.12 28
67 [21] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 8-3 57.21 47.09 75
68 [22] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 57.16 52.72 38
69 [3] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 11-4 57.09 39.88 141
70 [30] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 8-3 56.70 47.55 72
71 [4] Jefferson 8-AAA 10-2 56.34 39.54 145
72 [31] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 3-7 56.05 64.98 12
73 [5] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 11-2-1 55.84 31.72 218
74 [11] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 10-2 55.47 34.89 193
75 [32] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 5-5 54.75 56.43 27
76 [12] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 11-1 54.42 39.65 143
77 [33] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 5-6 54.37 54.88 32
78 [23] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 7-4 54.24 47.61 71
79 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 12-1 53.99 18.31 343
80 [34] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 8-3 53.87 41.88 123
81 [24] Alexander 5-AAAAA 8-3 53.79 44.32 103
82 [25] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 8-4 53.75 44.36 101
83 [26] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 53.44 36.08 185
84 [35] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 5-6 52.42 53.50 35
85 [36] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-8 52.17 66.64 5
86 [6] Elbert County 8-AAA 10-3 52.15 40.88 130
87 [13] Liberty County 3-AAAA 8-4 52.10 43.62 110
88 [5] Brooks County 1-AA 10-3 51.67 32.99 205
89 [27] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 51.55 51.17 49
90 [37] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 3-8 51.47 65.89 7
91 [28] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 7-4 51.22 40.18 136
92 [38] Milton 5-AAAAAA 4-6 51.18 55.56 30
93 [6] Wesleyan 6-AA 9-3 51.17 36.10 184
94 [14] Carrollton 5-AAAA 6-6 51.14 46.84 78
95 [29] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 9-2 51.13 39.49 146
96 [30] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 51.09 36.75 175
97 [31] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 50.46 39.60 144
98 [39] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-5 50.40 48.44 62
99 [40] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-7 50.30 61.27 19
100 [32] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 7-3 50.17 43.46 112
101 [7] Lovett 6-AA 6-6 50.05 47.23 74
102 [41] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 5-6 49.96 51.93 41
103 [8] Jefferson County 3-AA 11-3 49.85 31.70 219
104 [33] Loganville 8-AAAAA 8-3 49.85 36.81 172
105 [9] Rabun County 8-AA 11-2 49.64 23.70 300
106 [15] Burke County 3-AAAA 7-4 49.11 44.31 104
107 [3] Clinch County 2-A 13-1 48.70 22.46 310
108 [34] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 7-4 48.55 40.96 127
109 [16] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 9-2 48.54 30.50 231
110 [17] West Laurens 2-AAAA 8-4 48.44 38.79 155
111 [35] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 47.81 52.04 40
112 [36] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 47.36 40.94 129
113 [7] Peach County 2-AAA 9-3 47.35 31.11 226
114 [4] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 12-2 46.85 22.48 308
115 [42] Northview 6-AAAAAA 6-5 46.81 45.56 90
116 [18] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 6-5 46.39 44.00 107
117 [43] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-5 46.33 48.22 66
118 [44] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-6 46.32 51.58 47
119 [37] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 46.24 43.63 109
120 [19] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 8-3 46.22 34.93 192
121 [8] Adairsville 6-AAA 11-2 45.67 20.73 329
122 [9] Callaway 5-AAA 10-2 45.66 29.48 245
123 [10] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 11-1 45.48 22.86 305
124 [45] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 3-7 45.39 56.71 26
125 [20] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 4-6 45.32 47.71 68
126 [11] Oconee County 8-AAA 9-3 45.08 29.88 241
127 [46] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-6 44.75 51.64 44
128 [47] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 5-5 44.55 45.63 88
129 [12] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 9-4 44.08 34.63 198
130 [38] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 5-5 43.62 44.23 105
131 [10] Macon County 4-AA 10-3 43.43 29.48 247
132 [21] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 43.31 37.94 160
133 [11] Darlington 7-AA 10-1 43.06 22.35 312
134 [39] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 6-4 43.02 34.61 199
135 [5] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 10-2 42.97 26.08 269
136 [13] Hart County 8-AAA 7-4 42.93 36.89 170
137 [22] Wayne County 3-AAAA 3-8 42.76 51.62 45
138 [14] Jackson 2-AAA 9-3 42.73 28.51 255
139 [40] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 6-5 42.70 42.75 118
140 [6] Irwin County 2-A 10-3-1 42.66 29.48 246
141 [23] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 6-4 42.20 36.57 178
142 [24] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 7-3 42.11 30.43 233
143 [25] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 6-5 42.00 36.68 177
144 [12] Screven County 3-AA 10-2 41.89 21.07 326
145 [26] Grady 6-AAAA 7-5 41.20 36.19 183
146 [41] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 5-5 41.06 39.10 151
147 [42] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 3-7 40.91 52.86 37
148 [27] Veterans 2-AAAA 4-7 40.79 46.78 80
149 [43] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 6-4 40.68 37.35 164
150 [13] Early County 1-AA 7-4-1 40.56 29.95 238
151 [15] Spencer 2-AAA 8-4 40.55 33.08 204
152 [28] Stephens County 8-AAAA 8-3 40.54 29.89 240
153 [44] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 40.17 39.94 138
154 [14] Hapeville 6-AA 6-4 40.14 27.96 260
155 [16] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 9-2 40.10 25.27 280
156 [7] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 9-4 39.59 25.12 282
157 [29] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-7 39.49 51.59 46
158 [30] Howard 2-AAAA 6-4 39.19 35.69 190
159 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 4-6 38.53 45.63 89
160 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 11-2 38.47 15.26 367
161 [9] Commerce 8-A 9-4 38.23 23.55 301
162 [45] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 5-5 38.16 37.08 167
163 [17] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 37.71 29.77 243
164 [15] Model 7-AA 9-2 37.65 24.96 285
165 [18] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 6-4 37.63 29.32 248
166 [46] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 4-6 37.40 39.47 147
167 [47] Columbus 1-AAAAA 7-4 37.21 32.92 206
168 [48] Salem 8-AAAAA 5-5 37.14 35.96 187
169 [49] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 37.09 32.42 209
170 [31] North Hall 8-AAAA 6-5 36.99 33.62 201
171 [32] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-7 36.98 49.32 54
172 [16] Heard County 5-AA 8-4 36.88 25.11 283
173 [10] Charlton County 2-A 7-3 36.71 24.41 290
174 [19] Laney 3-AAA 8-3 36.35 14.26 374
175 [17] Vidalia 2-AA 8-4 36.33 23.98 299
176 [50] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 36.18 39.44 148
177 [11] Trion 6-Div A-A 8-4 36.07 22.48 309
178 [49] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 3-7 35.90 45.33 92
179 [12] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 10-2 35.82 21.17 325
180 [51] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 3-7 35.67 49.59 52
181 [50] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 3-7 35.63 56.97 25
182 [52] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 35.58 42.80 117
183 [53] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 35.41 29.92 239
184 [33] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-6 35.36 40.53 134
185 [34] Pickens 7-AAAA 8-3 35.30 25.23 281
186 [54] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 2-8 35.18 49.02 58
187 [35] Columbia 6-AAAA 5-6 35.16 37.35 163
188 [55] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 34.98 41.92 122
189 [56] Shaw 1-AAAAA 5-6 34.88 37.63 161
190 [20] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 7-4 34.80 24.00 298
191 [21] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 34.75 29.56 244
192 [13] Turner County 2-A 8-3 34.64 19.91 333
193 [57] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 2-8 34.60 47.76 67
194 [22] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 34.08 28.90 252
195 [18] Lamar County 4-AA 7-4 33.84 26.10 268
196 [14] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 9-3 33.74 17.17 354
197 [58] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 33.70 36.27 182
198 [59] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-8 33.67 51.65 43
199 [51] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-8 33.50 46.24 84
200 [52] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 4-6 33.45 39.08 152
201 [36] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 7-4 33.39 25.62 275
202 [53] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-8 33.05 48.38 64
203 [15] Landmark Christian 5-A 7-4 33.01 21.98 321
204 [60] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 33.00 37.08 168
205 [54] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 2-8 32.67 45.23 93
206 [37] Lithonia 6-AAAA 6-4 32.34 28.44 256
207 [61] Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-7 32.29 44.57 99
208 [23] Sonoraville 6-AAA 8-4 32.22 18.28 344
209 [24] Pepperell 5-AAA 7-4 32.08 25.33 279
210 [38] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-7 32.02 40.37 135
211 [19] Chattooga 7-AA 7-4 31.89 25.75 274
212 [16] Marion County 4-A 10-2 31.71 11.94 385
213 [17] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 8-4 31.57 20.75 328
214 [25] Morgan County 8-AAA 4-6 31.54 35.36 191
215 [55] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-9 31.52 46.65 81
216 [18] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 6-6 31.51 31.22 225
217 [39] Perry 2-AAAA 2-8 31.50 44.57 98
218 [62] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 5-5 31.41 35.81 188
219 [19] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 9-2 31.22 9.80 397
220 [20] Athens Academy 8-A 9-2 31.03 8.30 403
221 [26] Dawson County 7-AAA 9-4 31.00 22.74 307
222 [40] North Oconee 8-AAAA 5-6 30.69 35.69 189
223 [27] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 30.68 25.59 277
224 [41] Fayette County 5-AAAA 3-8 30.58 48.69 61
225 [42] Baldwin 2-AAAA 4-6 30.47 36.70 176
226 [28] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 30.45 30.11 236
227 [63] Evans 2-AAAAA 4-6 30.42 33.73 200
228 [21] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 9-2 30.41 14.68 371
229 [20] Putnam County 4-AA 7-4 30.17 22.24 317
230 [29] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-4 30.17 24.02 296
231 [30] Jackson County 8-AAA 4-6 29.96 34.63 197
232 [21] Manchester 5-AA 8-4 29.26 19.49 336
233 [22] Dade County 7-AA 6-5 29.22 29.77 242
234 [23] Dublin 3-AA 6-4 29.00 23.19 302
235 [56] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-9 28.84 46.92 77
236 [64] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 28.47 39.98 137
237 [22] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 6-5 28.42 27.53 262
238 [65] Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-8 28.33 37.26 166
239 [66] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 28.12 37.42 162
240 [43] Redan 6-AAAA 4-6 28.05 29.96 237
241 [44] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 4-7 27.77 31.82 214
242 [57] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-9 27.73 57.32 24
243 [24] Swainsboro 3-AA 5-6 27.38 31.97 213
244 [45] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 27.33 30.98 228
245 [25] Union County 8-AA 9-2 27.10 10.84 391
246 [67] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 2-8 26.89 42.34 120
247 [31] Washington County 3-AAA 5-6 26.85 24.82 288
248 [32] East Hall 7-AAA 6-5 25.50 24.15 295
249 [46] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 5-5 25.24 28.24 259
250 [26] Metter 3-AA 6-5 25.22 26.68 266
251 [33] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 6-5 25.21 26.31 267
252 [34] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 6-4 25.08 15.54 366
253 [27] Bowdon 5-AA 6-6 24.87 25.84 270
254 [35] Franklin County 7-AAA 6-5 23.87 23.18 303
255 [28] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-8 23.84 41.43 125
256 [47] Troup 5-AAAA 1-9 23.73 47.24 73
257 [68] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 23.68 44.17 106
258 [48] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 23.61 28.27 258
259 [29] Pelham 1-AA 6-5 23.23 26.70 265
260 [36] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 23.09 33.30 203
261 [23] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 6-5 23.05 18.50 341
262 [69] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-10 22.97 51.22 48
263 [49] White County 8-AAAA 3-7 22.86 31.76 216
264 [70] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 22.33 29.00 250
265 [37] Ringgold 6-AAA 6-5 22.23 17.98 345
266 [30] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 4-7 21.92 30.61 230
267 [24] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 5-5 21.59 16.22 362
268 [31] Bacon County 2-AA 5-5 21.49 22.01 320
269 [58] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-10 21.46 68.23 2
270 [38] Jordan 2-AAA 3-7 21.33 31.62 221
271 [59] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 4-7 21.19 30.43 232
272 [39] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 20.80 32.50 208
273 [25] Athens Christian 8-A 6-5 20.54 17.39 350
274 [26] Telfair County 2-A 5-6 20.40 21.21 324
275 [40] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 20.22 19.75 334
276 [32] Bryan County 2-AA 5-6 20.17 23.03 304
277 [71] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 20.14 45.00 96
278 [33] Gordon Lee 7-AA 4-6 20.02 22.35 311
279 [27] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 6-5 19.87 17.80 348
280 [50] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 4-6 19.87 24.16 294
281 [34] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 19.77 43.26 114
282 [60] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-10 19.73 54.82 33
283 [28] Brookstone 4-A 6-5 19.69 16.37 360
284 [41] West Hall 7-AAA 5-6 19.64 22.28 316
285 [61] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 2-8 19.51 45.19 94
286 [42] Cedartown 5-AAA 2-9 19.42 31.74 217
287 [29] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 7-5 19.29 16.27 361
288 [35] Greene County 8-AA 5-6 19.22 22.86 306
289 [30] Dooly County 4-A 7-4 19.13 12.19 383
290 [43] Southwest 2-AAA 3-7 18.78 32.02 212
291 [51] Gilmer 7-AAAA 4-6 18.55 25.77 272
292 [52] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-5 18.40 17.36 351
293 [44] Banks County 7-AAA 5-5 18.04 17.80 349
294 [53] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 3-7 17.25 33.46 202
295 [62] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 3-6 17.19 27.48 263
296 [45] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-6 17.07 18.74 339
297 [31] Pacelli 4-A 7-4 17.02 10.81 392
298 [54] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-5 16.87 30.98 227
299 [36] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 4-7 16.86 25.37 278
300 [37] Berrien 1-AA 2-8 16.71 34.81 194
301 [32] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 4-7 16.44 22.03 319
302 [55] Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-8 16.39 47.64 70
303 [38] Bremen 5-AA 4-7 16.24 25.75 273
304 [46] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 16.04 31.81 215
305 [72] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-9 15.56 38.24 158
306 [73] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-10 15.41 46.59 82
307 [47] Kendrick 2-AAA 3-7 15.38 31.67 220
308 [63] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-8 15.22 36.97 169
309 [39] Jeff Davis 2-AA 5-5 15.00 14.28 373
310 [56] Chamblee 6-AAAA 2-8 14.18 32.29 211
311 [40] Thomasville 1-AA 1-8 14.18 39.88 140
312 [57] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 14.11 30.19 235
313 [74] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 14.00 40.61 132
314 [64] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 1-9 13.92 41.18 126
315 [75] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 2-8 13.40 37.35 165
316 [41] Harlem 3-AA 3-7 13.22 22.29 315
317 [33] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 6-4 13.02 10.36 396
318 [76] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-8 12.92 36.84 171
319 [34] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-6 12.58 16.37 359
320 [48] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 5-5 12.53 15.20 368
321 [35] Walker 6-Div A-A 4-6 12.06 24.48 289
322 [42] Northeast 4-AA 2-9 11.66 28.65 254
323 [43] Seminole County 1-AA 3-7 11.63 19.47 337
324 [77] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 11.39 38.49 157
325 [44] Crawford County 4-AA† 8-2 11.27 -4.19 416
326 [45] Long County 2-AA 3-7 11.12 20.47 331
327 [49] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 11.06 24.95 286
328 [36] Randolph-Clay 1-A 7-4 11.02 5.37 408
329 [78] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-9 10.98 36.78 174
330 [37] George Walton Academy 8-A 3-7 10.82 19.94 332
331 [38] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 5-5 10.58 11.79 387
332 [50] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-8 10.32 21.56 322
333 [79] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 10.16 26.95 264
334 [80] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-9 10.16 34.75 195
335 [51] Rockmart 5-AAA 2-8 10.10 24.23 293
336 [81] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-10 9.96 49.12 56
337 [46] Monticello 4-AA 1-9 9.41 25.84 271
338 [52] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-8 9.37 25.01 284
339 [39] Terrell County 1-A 5-5 9.27 10.60 393
340 [40] Hawkinsville 4-A 5-5 9.15 8.13 405
341 [53] Rutland 2-AAA 1-9 8.97 32.55 207
342 [54] North Murray 6-AAA 4-6 8.78 16.96 355
343 [47] East Laurens 3-AA 4-6 8.78 19.41 338
344 [55] Murray County 6-AAA 4-6 8.57 15.77 364
345 [48] Coosa 7-AA 1-9 8.51 31.39 224
346 [56] Josey 3-AAA 6-5 8.49 9.65 398
347 [41] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 4-6 8.46 17.98 346
348 [42] Atkinson County 2-A 3-7 8.19 21.54 323
349 [57] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 7.52 22.10 318
350 [43] Mitchell County 1-A 4-6 6.79 10.39 395
351 [58] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-8 6.67 18.45 342
352 [49] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-9 6.13 36.02 186
353 [44] Miller County 1-A 5-5 5.60 8.28 404
354 [59] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 1-9 5.51 36.35 181
355 [45] Taylor County 4-A 3-7 5.19 11.88 386
356 [58] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 5.19 24.32 291
357 [50] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-9 5.09 27.90 261
358 [59] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-9 5.07 22.34 313
359 [46] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 3-7 4.98 14.82 369
360 [47] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-7 4.53 17.34 352
361 [82] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 4.27 43.90 108
362 [51] Armuchee 7-AA 2-8 4.19 24.84 287
363 [48] Greenville 4-A 4-6 4.15 11.44 389
364 [52] Social Circle 8-AA 4-6 4.12 12.28 382
365 [49] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 4-6 3.54 12.05 384
366 [53] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-7 3.42 11.56 388
367 [50] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 6-4 3.11 -2.24 415
368 [54] Temple 5-AA 3-7 2.76 14.12 375
369 [60] Madison County 8-AAAA 1-9 2.69 28.67 253
370 [61] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 7-3 2.67 -5.00 417
371 [51] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 4-6 1.90 5.32 409
372 [52] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 4-6 1.37 6.25 407
373 [83] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-10 1.32 42.85 116
374 [60] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-9 1.23 20.80 327
375 [53] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 2-8 1.02 15.70 365
376 [54] Warren County 7-Div B-A 3-7 0.98 14.61 372
377 [62] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-9 0.89 32.32 210
378 [55] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 4-6 0.88 4.28 411
379 [56] Portal 3-Div A-A 2-8 0.61 13.47 378
380 [57] Wilcox County 2-A 2-8 0.51 20.59 330
381 [61] Butler 3-AAA 4-7 0.31 11.40 390
382 [62] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 0.16 31.50 223
383 [58] Claxton 3-Div A-A 2-8 -2.04 16.55 357
384 [59] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-9 -2.45 24.02 297
385 [63] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-9 -2.67 25.60 276
386 [60] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 3-7 -3.69 9.18 400
387 [55] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-9 -4.29 28.99 251
388 [64] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-10 -4.93 39.28 149
389 [61] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-8 -5.49 12.95 379
390 [62] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 3-7 -5.72 8.54 402
391 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-10 -5.86 38.05 159
392 [63] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 2-8 -6.29 17.88 347
393 [63] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -6.60 17.32 353
394 [64] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -6.69 19.58 335
395 [64] Lanier County 2-A 1-9 -6.69 22.32 314
396 [84] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 1-8 -6.77 29.27 249
397 [85] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 -7.13 46.38 83
398 [66] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-9 -7.32 31.55 222
399 [65] Hephzibah 3-AAA 3-7 -7.54 3.51 412
400 [66] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 2-8 -8.75 14.77 370
401 [56] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-9 -9.21 16.63 356
402 [67] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-10 -10.15 30.21 234
403 [65] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-9 -12.15 9.08 401
404 [67] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -12.34 16.12 363
405 [66] Baconton 1-A 3-7 -13.65 -0.85 414
406 [67] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-9 -15.95 12.77 380
407 [68] Providence Christian 8-A 0-10 -17.33 14.03 376
408 [69] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-10 -17.92 12.39 381
409 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-10 -18.11 16.39 358
410 [70] Calhoun County 1-A 0-10 -20.45 10.55 394
411 [68] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-10 -22.53 24.25 292
412 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-9 -24.37 13.94 377
413 [71] Schley County 4-A 0-10 -24.93 9.38 399
414 [72] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-9 -29.75 0.74 413
415 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-10 -32.05 18.55 340
416 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-5 -32.76 7.65 406
417 [73] Stewart County 1-A† 0-10 -42.45 5.31 410
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 94.75 73.90
2 8 - AAAAAA 84.82 64.10
3 7 - AAAAAA 83.10 60.68
4 5 - AAAAAA 76.63 55.14
5 3 - AAAAA 70.96 50.64
6 4 - AAAAAA 69.86 53.12
7 5 - AAAA 68.50 42.31
8 4 - AAAAA 67.29 43.76
4 - Div A - AAAAA 69.49 43.29
4 - Div B - AAAAA 64.57 44.09
9 5 - AAAAA 65.72 45.68
10 3 - AAAAAA 64.55 44.31
11 6 - AAAAAA 63.24 44.92
12 2 - AAAAA 63.01 37.40
13 2 - AAAAAA 62.67 37.48
14 7 - AAAAA 62.24 43.14
7 - Div A - AAAAA 65.24 46.64
7 - Div B - AAAAA 58.69 40.07
15 6 - AA 61.76 40.77
16 6 - AAAAA 60.72 38.91
6 - Div B - AAAAA 67.80 47.35
6 - Div A - AAAAA 51.73 33.29
17 3 - AAAA 59.93 45.27
18 1 - AAAA 59.59 39.96
1 - Div B - AAAA 64.84 41.68
1 - Div A - AAAA 54.85 38.68
19 8 - AAAAA 57.89 38.57
20 8 - AAA 57.35 39.11
21 2 - AAAA 57.34 41.56
22 4 - AAAA 54.01 32.81
4 - Div B - AAAA 57.50 33.64
4 - Div A - AAAA 50.67 32.19
23 1 - AA 53.82 29.43
24 6 - AAAA 53.64 34.34
25 4 - AAA 52.89 27.04
4 - Div B - AAA 60.25 35.26
4 - Div A - AAA 42.24 19.87
26 1 - AAAAA 52.12 35.63
27 2 - AAA 49.70 31.30
28 7 - AAAA 49.03 25.86
29 8 - AAAA 48.33 26.01
30 5 - A 48.21 14.41
31 3 - AA 46.62 27.63
32 2 - A 46.21 24.24
33 5 - AAA 45.34 25.10
34 6 - AAA 44.25 12.67
35 7 - AA 43.65 25.48
36 2 - AA 42.48 20.69
37 1 - AAA 41.23 21.81
1 - Div A - AAA 46.04 29.17
1 - Div B - AAA 32.65 10.06
38 6 - A 40.61 23.09
6 - Div A - A 45.05 31.49
6 - Div B - A 34.62 14.55
39 8 - A 40.12 14.68
40 4 - AA 39.90 21.93
41 5 - AA 37.23 19.05
42 8 - AA 36.61 13.60
43 7 - A 35.97 16.01
7 - Div B - A 36.66 14.44
7 - Div A - A 35.48 16.90
44 7 - AAA 35.75 20.78
45 3 - A 32.13 9.47
3 - Div B - A 32.28 9.12
3 - Div A - A 32.01 9.73
46 3 - AAA 28.26 3.59
47 4 - A 27.86 9.53
48 1 - A 15.35 0.76

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
0925 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 - 25 44.35 98.8% 0.039
0904 Central Gwinnett Mundy's Mill 20 - 35 21.95 90.0% 0.135
0904 Westminster (Atlanta) Laney 3 - 10 22.41 90.4% 0.155
0828 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 21.37 89.4% 0.166
0904 Bryan County Claxton 7 - 13 20.53 88.6% 0.180
1016 Gainesville Clarke Central 7 - 44 14.68 81.3% 0.197
0821 Allatoona East Paulding 10 - 17 18.24 86.1% 0.205
1023 B.E.S.T. Academy K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 26 - 27 19.38 87.4% 0.219
0904 Collins Hill South Gwinnett 17 - 20 17.69 85.4% 0.230
0925 Swainsboro Harlem 27 - 34 15.84 83.0% 0.238
0828 Crawford County Central (Talbotton) 21 - 30 15.31 82.2% 0.238
1009 First Presbyterian Mount de Sales 21 - 22 17.84 85.6% 0.239
0918 Pacelli Greenville 12 - 22 14.54 81.1% 0.246
0911 Jonesboro Eagle's Landing 7 - 17 14.36 80.8% 0.249
0918 Dalton Cass 8 - 23 12.58 77.9% 0.263

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
96.13 1212 Colquitt County Roswell 30 - 13 11.47 75.9%
95.78 1204 Colquitt County Mill Creek 52 - 31 10.97 75.0%
91.61 1204 Roswell Grayson 30 - 26 1.88 54.7%
89.14 1127 Mill Creek Archer 23 - 0 6.15 64.9%
88.53 0911 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 3.77 59.3%
84.40 1120 Archer McEachern 24 - 21 4.28 60.5%
83.92 1106 Colquitt County Camden County 33 - 14 21.91 89.9%
83.10 1120 Roswell Camden County 34 - 15 13.79 79.9%
80.85 0829 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 10.45 74.0%
80.71 1106 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge 20 - 17 14.92 81.6%
80.43 0911 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 6 - 9 1.15 52.9%
80.28 1212 Cartersville Buford 10 - 0 6.10 64.8%
79.29 0904 McEachern Buford 37 - 14 5.40 63.2%
75.34 1204 Buford Woodward Academy 35 - 18 5.70 63.9%
74.69 0904 Camden County Glynn Academy 24 - 17 8.32 69.7%

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Loren Maxwell

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