Class AAA blog: Some interesting first-round games could short-circuit the AJC/Maxwell computer

The first round of the GHSA playoffs begins Friday in what is forecast to be a cold, wet and arguably miserable day to embark on the journey toward the state finals. But hey, if it ain't raining, we ain't training ... or whatever the Marines said.

According to the AJC's Maxwell projections, Cedar Grove and Peach County will win the state championship more than half the time out of 1,000,000 playoff computer simulations. Cedar Grove has the edge, 275,241.33 to Peach's 250,417.49. Pierce County was picked to win the title 219,730.49 times. Then, according to Maxwell's list, there's a pretty large drop-off.

Jefferson, the next in line, will win the title 79,615.12 times, then Jenkins (43,796.47 times), North Murray (31,592.62 times), GAC (31,398.02 times) and Crisp County (30,869.61 times). Westminster (17,548.00) and Appling County (12,584.21) are the only remaining programs predicted to win the title more than 10,000 times. Lovett is next in line, with 3,018.63 titles out of 1,000,000 computer runs.

It's clear that plenty of consideration should be given to the titans of the classification, those teams whose upcoming state championship likely has been predicted by fans once or twice since Jadon Haselwood's game-winning touchdown pass last season that led Cedar Grove past Peach County in the title game.

If you are looking for a list of teams "that might make a run," you could focus to the top-right quadrant of the bracket, where Westside-Macon, the Region 4 No. 3 seed, is traveling to Region 2 No. 2-seeded Appling County. According to the Maxwell projections, Appling will win the state title 12,584.21 times. Westside captures its first-ever state championship just 3.66 times out of 1,000,000 simulations.

But that's computer talk. This is not:

Appling County enters the playoffs after first-round exits in the past three seasons. Its best appearances were semifinal exits in 1999 and 2011. Westside made it to the quarterfinals in 2015 and then made second-round exits in 2017 and 2018. Its best playoff results were two semifinal exits in 2000 and 2003.

Appling averages 261.1 rushing yards and 55.6 passing yards. The Pirates have scored 41 touchdowns this season, nine rushing. Junior quarterback Jeremiah Holmes leads the Appling running game with 65 carries for 578 yards and 10 touchdowns. He is 25-of-59 passing for five touchdowns. Sharode Roberts has 81 carries for 580 yards and eight touchdowns. Senior R.J. Conaway has 83 carries for 508 yards and seven touchdowns. Six other players have scored rushing touchdowns for the Pirates.

On the other side, the Seminoles also pass, averaging 244 receiving yards and 122 rushing yards. Senior Victor Dixon Jr. is 170-of-264 passing for 2,381 yards and 27 of Westside's 48 touchdowns. Dixon has added 94 carries for 220 yards and eight touchdowns. Junior Vansean Jackson has 123 carries for 699 yards and six touchdowns. Senior receiver Jaylon Barden has 65 receptions for 1,208 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Here are some other interesting games to watch in the first round:

-- Morgan County (7-3, 4-2) at Calhoun (9-1, 7-1): It's safe to say that a lot is on the line when Calhoun enters its first-round matchup with Morgan County. If the Yellow Jackets lose, it will be the first time since 2000 that Calhoun has not advanced to at least the second round of the playoffs. In that 19-year span, Calhoun has won three state championships and lost in the finals five times. From 2008 to 2012, it made it to the title game each season and won the Class AA title in 2011. The Jackets won AAA titles in 2014 and 2017. Since 2008, Calhoun, which advanced to the semifinals last season, has not been eliminated before the quarterfinals. Morgan County had plenty of success in the late 1950s and early 1960s when the Bulldogs won championships in 1955, 1956, 1958, 1959 and 1962. But its best finishes since a quarterfinal loss in 1990 were several second-round exits. It has advanced to the playoffs in each of the past three seasons, but hasn't punched through to the second round.

-- Dawson County (7-3, 4-2) at No. 10 Westminster (6-4, 5-1): Dawson County has one region title (2015/7-AAA), and before its quarterfinal appearance that season, had been to the playoffs four times since 1967. Westminster has three consecutive quarterfinal exits since its 2015 state championship. Since 2007, it hasn't missed the playoffs. In fact, Westminster has only missed the playoffs three times -- 2002, 2005 and 2006 -- since 1995. Dawson County is coming off a 40-37 loss to North Hall last week, and Westminster is riding momentum from a 31-21 victory against Lovett. According to the Maxwell's computer, Westminster will win the title 17,548 times, and Dawson County will win it 100.45 times. To note, Gerry Romberg has been the head coach at Westminster since 1992 and is making his 22nd playoff appearance there.

-- Lovett (7-3, 5-1) at North Hall (7-3, 5-1): Lovett has only missed the playoffs three times -- 1991, 1997 and 2001 -- since 1987. It won the Class AA championship in 2013, but hasn't advanced past the second round since 2014. North Hall made it to the second round last season, its best appearance since making it to the semifinals in 2012. North Hall prefers to run, averaging 291 yards rushing and 65 yards passing. Lovett is balanced -- 165 passing, 169 rushing. Lovett lost to Westminster 31-21 last week and missed out on the 5-AAA No. 2 seed because of it. North Hall defeated Dawson County 40-37 last week to grab home-field advantage in the first round.

Class AAA first-round schedule

R8 #3 Morgan County at R6 #2 Calhoun

R2 #4 Brantley County at R4 #1 Peach County (AJC No. 1)

R1 #3 Monroe at R3 #2 Benedictine

R7 #4 Fannin County at R5 #1 Cedar Grove (AJC No. 2)

R6 #3 Haralson County at R8 #2 Hart County

R4 #4 Central-Macon at R2 #1 Pierce County (AJC No. 3)

R3 #3 Windsor Forest at R1 #2 Cook

R5 #4 Pace Academy at R7 #1 Greater Atlanta Christian (AJC No. 5)

R4 #3 Westside-Macon at R2 #2 Appling County (AJC No. 8)

R6 #4 Sonoraville at R8 #1 Jefferson (AJC No. 4)

R5 #3 Lovett at R7 #2 North Hall

R3 #4 Southeast Bulloch at R1 #1 Crisp County (AJC No. 6)

R2 #3 Liberty County at R4 #2 Jackson

R8 #4 Monroe Area at R6 #1 North Murray (AJC No. 9)

R7 #3 Dawson County at R5 #2 Westminster (AJC No. 10)

At Large Adairsville at R3 #1 Jenkins (AJC No. 7)

Here's the second round schedule according to my predictions in Tuesday's blog, which will be reviewed and, if needed, corrected on Saturday.

R6 #2 Calhoun at R4 #1 Peach County