Maxwell playoff projections after Week 12

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2018 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.

Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Lowndes#1 (1 - AAAAAAA)10-0102.3175.544.25634,975.100.57
Colquitt County#2 (1 - AAAAAAA)8-290.1877.113.33203,652.053.91
McEachern#1 (3 - AAAAAAA)10-085.4781.342.6761,439.7815.28
North Gwinnett#1 (6 - AAAAAAA)9-183.5082.292.4338,678.4124.85
Grayson#1 (8 - AAAAAAA)9-181.1183.562.0219,682.4949.81
Marietta#2 (3 - AAAAAAA)8-278.1780.541.7519,444.6450.43
Mill Creek#2 (6 - AAAAAAA)8-273.4379.541.889,062.94109.34
Archer#2 (8 - AAAAAAA)7-371.4180.041.554,960.96200.57
Parkview#1 (7 - AAAAAAA)9-171.6280.541.274,575.55217.55
Camden County#3 (1 - AAAAAAA)7-271.5782.520.652,152.03463.68
Milton#1 (5 - AAAAAAA)7-364.7879.811.36896.531,114.41
Collins Hill#3 (6 - AAAAAAA)6-462.6181.750.49189.475,276.77
Newton#3 (8 - AAAAAAA)7-361.7881.670.39137.667,263.36
Roswell#1 (4 - AAAAAAA)7-256.4279.671.0764.2615,560.62
North Cobb#3 (3 - AAAAAAA)7-361.2283.770.0737.7526,486.45
Westlake#1 (2 - AAAAAAA)6-453.4780.070.7014.7967,601.06
East Coweta#2 (2 - AAAAAAA)5-558.8386.780.9113.8072,439.72
Hillgrove#4 (3 - AAAAAAA)7-360.5187.120.0213.0776,535.96
Cherokee#4 (4 - AAAAAAA)7-351.3781.540.482.99334,617.36
Shiloh#4 (8 - AAAAAAA)7-355.3986.520.092.66376,228.02
North Paulding#4 (3 - AAAAAAA)6-451.2286.390.050.701,432,362.22
Norcross#2 (7 - AAAAAAA)5-550.8786.770.540.641,572,884.79
Walton#2 (4 - AAAAAAA)5-549.5086.280.630.551,834,633.00
South Forsyth#3 (5 - AAAAAAA)6-450.4986.810.460.462,177,834.75
Mountain View#4 (6 - AAAAAAA)5-551.1587.120.060.323,172,769.84
Newnan#3 (2 - AAAAAAA)6-446.7186.340.420.147,215,381.47
North Forsyth#2 (5 - AAAAAAA)6-444.4486.220.590.1010,375,843.75
West Forsyth#4 (5 - AAAAAAA)4-545.1983.490.060.0519,362,446.14
Brookwood#3 (7 - AAAAAAA)5-542.7686.250.440.0426,048,048.42
Etowah#3 (4 - AAAAAAA)5-545.4387.040.200.0427,411,153.26
Wheeler#4 (2 - AAAAAAA)5-540.3081.440.160.0251,000,614.39
Central Gwinnett#4 (7 - AAAAAAA)3-732.4182.170.030.004,741,295,840.47

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Valdosta#2 (1 - AAAAAA)8-283.1161.963.92487,303.501.05
Lee County#1 (1 - AAAAAA)9-178.0965.423.16202,812.483.93
Harrison#1 (6 - AAAAAA)10-072.3564.353.06112,153.097.92
Dacula#1 (8 - AAAAAA)10-075.4468.192.54109,480.968.13
Coffee#3 (1 - AAAAAA)7-369.9066.252.5559,951.1615.68
Allatoona#2 (6 - AAAAAA)7-2-161.3667.701.617,419.22133.79
Johns Creek#1 (7 - AAAAAA)9-162.0568.361.087,275.88136.44
Houston County#4 (1 - AAAAAA)5-560.0868.721.754,542.09219.16
Lanier#2 (8 - AAAAAA)9-158.7167.521.464,006.46248.60
Stephenson#1 (4 - AAAAAA)9-156.1767.181.502,252.90442.87
Mays#1 (5 - AAAAAA)9-156.2867.751.191,822.81547.60
Richmond Hill#1 (2 - AAAAAA)6-351.5767.261.16524.221,906.60
Glynn Academy#2 (2 - AAAAAA)5-452.7772.600.74133.797,473.40
South Paulding#2 (5 - AAAAAA)8-248.7269.411.03122.978,130.81
Dalton#4 (6 - AAAAAA)7-351.4573.290.1142.6823,428.70
Brunswick#3 (2 - AAAAAA)5-546.0469.820.5631.0632,197.63
Alpharetta#2 (7 - AAAAAA)7-348.6372.550.6130.2733,035.12
Sprayberry#3 (6 - AAAAAA)6-445.7569.350.2821.3246,901.11
Morrow#2 (4 - AAAAAA)6-444.5169.760.5419.0952,389.88
Gainesville#3 (8 - AAAAAA)5-545.8669.850.2115.4464,776.12
Tucker#3 (4 - AAAAAA)6-447.4872.950.3713.1576,020.97
Creekside#3 (5 - AAAAAA)6-446.6972.730.4411.2988,597.16
Alexander#4 (5 - AAAAAA)6-445.5571.390.156.75148,239.32
Evans#1 (3 - AAAAAA)7-239.4869.150.182.73366,428.46
North Atlanta#3 (7 - AAAAAA)7-338.5969.870.281.43697,967.41
Winder-Barrow#4 (8 - AAAAAA)3-739.2670.140.041.34744,631.40
M.L. King#4 (4 - AAAAAA)7-338.9869.390.231.24807,248.15
Northview#4 (7 - AAAAAA)6-438.4970.300.140.581,716,269.85
Heritage (Conyers)#2 (3 - AAAAAA)5-531.6669.330.030.0425,331,831.77
Lakeside (Evans)#3 (3 - AAAAAA)7-233.3771.120.010.0425,800,553.10
Bradwell Institute#4 (2 - AAAAAA)3-630.9469.890.070.0244,436,555.82
Greenbrier#4 (3 - AAAAAA)2-820.1572.750.000.0015,296,684,271.93

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Warner Robins#1 (1 - AAAAA)9-174.7458.553.29346,545.811.89
Carrollton#1 (7 - AAAAA)10-074.2858.733.25313,150.162.19
Ware County#1 (2 - AAAAA)7-368.5163.591.8381,130.2611.33
Buford#2 (8 - AAAAA)9-168.0363.621.8871,300.3813.03
Rome#2 (7 - AAAAA)8-264.3862.541.5744,816.9621.31
Dutchtown#2 (4 - AAAAA)9-161.3360.171.8639,428.6724.36
Kell#3 (7 - AAAAA)8-259.4059.742.1229,199.6833.25
Jones County#1 (4 - AAAAA)9-158.1259.631.6522,581.9943.28
Wayne County#2 (2 - AAAAA)7-258.6262.541.2612,398.0779.66
Bainbridge#3 (1 - AAAAA)7-357.2461.621.2111,170.7188.52
Clarke Central#1 (8 - AAAAA)7-353.7260.901.555,837.13170.32
Veterans#2 (1 - AAAAA)8-258.1965.151.045,682.00174.99
Griffin#2 (3 - AAAAA)9-154.5661.540.975,560.96178.83
Statesboro#3 (2 - AAAAA)5-454.3262.340.684,304.98231.29
South Effingham#4 (2 - AAAAA)6-453.5461.860.793,817.38260.96
Southwest DeKalb#1 (5 - AAAAA)9-147.9660.450.941,084.71920.91
Stockbridge#3 (4 - AAAAA)8-251.4164.180.45781.421,278.72
Starr's Mill#1 (3 - AAAAA)7-345.5460.610.84529.131,888.90
Riverwood#1 (6 - AAAAA)10-042.6960.280.93248.554,022.31
Cedar Shoals#3 (8 - AAAAA)7-342.7460.970.89174.385,733.55
Hiram#4 (7 - AAAAA)5-543.4062.130.4599.4010,059.20
Harris County#4 (1 - AAAAA)5-542.1062.330.4773.7513,558.09
Ola#4 (4 - AAAAA)7-348.5068.120.1257.3617,433.60
Columbia#2 (5 - AAAAA)5-537.7461.680.1615.3765,063.09
Riverdale#3 (3 - AAAAA)7-341.7366.890.155.70175,391.94
Carver (Atlanta)#2 (6 - AAAAA)7-332.5461.050.322.22450,246.65
Loganville#4 (8 - AAAAA)3-732.6962.160.261.58634,006.84
Jonesboro#4 (3 - AAAAA)5-537.7366.490.021.27788,860.78
Decatur#3 (6 - AAAAA)7-328.4567.730.020.0185,367,275.55
Lithonia#3 (5 - AAAAA)6-425.3866.230.020.01159,900,222.19
Lithia Springs#4 (6 - AAAAA)4-613.0363.980.020.0032,472,501,410.67
Arabia Mountain#4 (5 - AAAAA)2-814.8666.750.000.0042,246,594,961.74

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Woodward Academy#1 (4 - AAAA)10-076.0358.323.49359,256.301.78
Marist#2 (7 - AAAA)9-171.7059.243.05237,704.913.21
Blessed Trinity#1 (7 - AAAA)9-169.9761.302.67142,522.186.02
Cartersville#1 (5 - AAAA)10-069.6363.622.0795,278.399.50
Sandy Creek#2 (5 - AAAA)9-162.6961.151.5243,004.3722.25
Oconee County#1 (8 - AAAA)9-160.0758.852.2739,439.2124.36
West Laurens#1 (2 - AAAA)9-162.7761.572.2939,313.2224.44
Denmark#3 (7 - AAAA)7-261.3962.251.1325,876.1337.65
Burke County#1 (3 - AAAA)8-253.9759.361.489,377.91105.63
Carver (Columbus)#1 (1 - AAAA)9-152.0461.511.223,239.92307.65
Flowery Branch#4 (7 - AAAA)7-357.4867.450.412,361.94422.38
Cairo#2 (1 - AAAA)8-251.4065.280.93775.841,287.93
Mary Persons#3 (2 - AAAA)5-543.4259.651.22491.702,032.75
North Oconee#2 (8 - AAAA)9-149.3565.021.09474.542,106.31
Perry#2 (2 - AAAA)6-444.4361.901.14301.903,311.39
Cedartown#3 (5 - AAAA)5-548.9064.690.13293.113,410.66
Troup#4 (5 - AAAA)6-448.7966.460.15145.886,853.79
Thomson#2 (3 - AAAA)5-543.9366.410.8355.0718,157.66
Eastside#2 (4 - AAAA)7-336.5559.510.6141.0924,333.03
St. Pius X#3 (8 - AAAA)5-540.4366.380.7116.3961,004.42
Ridgeland#1 (6 - AAAA)6-431.7558.760.7510.1798,282.71
Baldwin#3 (3 - AAAA)4-640.7566.080.257.78128,485.59
Americus-Sumter#4 (1 - AAAA)5-535.6962.380.144.65214,859.64
Madison County#4 (8 - AAAA)4-630.5460.080.553.18314,924.57
Upson-Lee#4 (2 - AAAA)4-637.6666.790.032.86349,245.38
Hardaway#3 (1 - AAAA)7-334.0666.790.260.621,611,958.56
Heritage (Ringgold)#2 (6 - AAAA)8-231.7366.500.330.422,406,600.48
Northwest Whitfield#4 (6 - AAAA)7-329.2263.250.050.224,526,477.08
Pickens#3 (6 - AAAA)6-429.7765.870.120.0713,754,553.36
Richmond Academy#4 (3 - AAAA)4-521.0864.210.040.00388,703,559.75
Hampton#3 (4 - AAAA)5-517.4863.070.060.00726,937,348.95
Luella#4 (4 - AAAA)4-615.3065.830.010.0011,547,026,568.04

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Cedar Grove#1 (5 - AAA)8-271.7257.163.04275,241.332.63
Peach County#1 (4 - AAA)9-171.0057.152.97250,417.492.99
Pierce County#1 (2 - AAA)10-067.9255.513.10219,730.863.55
Jefferson#1 (8 - AAA)8-159.9355.052.4679,615.1211.56
Jenkins#1 (3 - AAA)9-156.9255.262.1943,795.4721.83
North Murray#1 (6 - AAA)9-155.5755.521.9931,592.6230.65
Greater Atlanta Christian#1 (7 - AAA)9-158.0758.052.0631,398.0230.85
Crisp County#1 (1 - AAA)7-355.1055.162.1730,869.6131.39
Westminster (Atlanta)#2 (5 - AAA)6-455.1257.601.4717,548.0055.99
Appling County#2 (2 - AAA)8-253.8157.671.4412,584.2178.46
Lovett#3 (5 - AAA)7-349.8158.430.983,018.63330.28
Liberty County#3 (2 - AAA)6-248.2757.591.152,685.96371.31
Hart County#2 (8 - AAA)8-247.4361.750.91644.241,551.21
Calhoun#2 (6 - AAA)9-146.5364.180.82227.484,394.92
North Hall#2 (7 - AAA)7-342.4158.780.44187.415,334.85
Benedictine#2 (3 - AAA)7-344.9163.941.01178.215,610.23
Dawson County#3 (7 - AAA)7-341.7459.600.23100.459,954.18
Pace Academy#4 (5 - AAA)5-440.9761.490.2778.9312,668.38
Monroe Area#4 (8 - AAA)7-339.5958.810.2160.4716,535.37
Jackson#2 (4 - AAA)7-335.3658.240.2815.2665,514.18
Westside (Macon)#3 (4 - AAA)6-433.9659.780.123.66273,096.36
Haralson County#3 (6 - AAA)8-235.2262.530.223.41293,038.45
Morgan County#3 (8 - AAA)7-336.2864.750.252.36423,829.81
Sonoraville#4 (6 - AAA)5-528.6659.780.040.323,101,328.98
Fannin County#4 (7 - AAA)6-430.7564.720.020.224,557,293.74
Windsor Forest#3 (3 - AAA)5-523.5961.080.550.147,005,165.43
Cook#2 (1 - AAA)3-721.2961.050.490.0617,486,883.34
Adairsville#4 (6 - AAA)5-522.5959.410.030.0244,771,570.87
Central (Macon)#4 (4 - AAA)3-720.6762.460.010.01179,262,096.38
Southeast Bulloch#4 (3 - AAA)4-617.0859.010.020.00558,467,143.09
Monroe#3 (1 - AAA)4-619.1664.620.060.00687,666,062.62
Brantley County#4 (2 - AAA)5-518.0864.680.000.001,613,776,006.93

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Rabun County#1 (8 - AA)10-071.0846.234.20566,355.190.77
Rockmart#1 (7 - AA)10-063.2949.123.49235,066.623.25
Callaway#1 (5 - AA)9-156.1549.862.9784,353.0910.85
Hapeville Charter#1 (6 - AA)8-1-158.7752.772.7684,351.2410.86
Dublin#1 (3 - AA)9-152.2554.922.0618,399.0353.35
Union County#2 (8 - AA)9-144.3554.351.593,435.31290.09
Pepperell#2 (7 - AA)8-242.5256.141.351,212.03824.06
Metter#1 (2 - AA)8-239.6753.941.381,063.26939.50
Brooks County#2 (1 - AA)6-442.8356.400.62886.821,126.62
Washington County#3 (3 - AA)7-343.2256.690.57864.371,155.92
Thomasville#1 (1 - AA)6-441.2455.691.05831.931,201.03
Bleckley County#2 (3 - AA)7-340.1454.940.72730.311,368.28
Bremen#2 (5 - AA)7-341.5657.371.19607.541,644.98
Fitzgerald#3 (1 - AA)7-339.2255.310.57437.662,283.87
Swainsboro#3 (2 - AA)7-340.7557.680.95365.892,732.05
Toombs County#2 (2 - AA)7-238.8956.690.93324.563,080.12
Douglass#2 (6 - AA)9-134.4954.030.86186.615,357.78
Vidalia#4 (2 - AA)7-334.9854.330.80174.105,742.67
Jefferson County#1 (4 - AA)8-233.3953.420.78152.476,557.62
Elbert County#3 (8 - AA)6-434.1354.290.73133.757,475.55
Dodge County#4 (3 - AA)4-635.8157.190.4763.7015,697.42
Heard County#3 (5 - AA)4-627.3757.150.202.18458,109.21
Harlem#2 (4 - AA)7-325.4658.140.200.681,475,276.70
South Atlanta#3 (6 - AA)7-323.1655.870.120.641,567,979.32
Early County#4 (1 - AA)5-524.9358.340.070.402,472,093.26
Chattooga#4 (7 - AA)5-521.0555.460.030.254,053,961.71
Hephzibah#3 (4 - AA)7-220.4257.470.120.1010,456,633.06
Model#3 (7 - AA)5-521.1658.270.110.0910,864,810.98
Screven County#4 (4 - AA)7-318.6855.850.110.0811,832,101.34
Temple#4 (5 - AA)6-420.3056.840.010.0713,990,647.44
B.E.S.T. Academy#4 (6 - AA)4-616.9857.480.000.0255,548,517.44
Putnam County#4 (8 - AA)5-514.7858.280.010.00225,939,151.60

Class A Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Irwin County#1 (2 - A)9-062.9333.304.40706,095.100.42
Clinch County#4 (2 - A)9-152.5940.683.18185,910.234.38
Wilcox County#11 (2 - A)8-239.7538.822.8048,535.6619.60
Commerce#10 (8 - A)8-236.2240.072.0220,112.6848.72
Lincoln County#7 (7 - A)8-233.3939.482.0613,221.3374.64
Mitchell County#3 (1 - A)9-131.5538.922.2810,558.8493.71
Bowdon#5 (6 - A)8-238.1446.082.1010,091.5098.09
Johnson County#8 (3 - A)8-232.6846.241.852,853.25349.48
Marion County#2 (4 - A)8-222.5738.901.841,173.24851.34
Pelham#6 (1 - A)9-124.3040.851.29833.841,198.27
Claxton#15 (3 - A)6-420.3840.751.07225.414,435.27
Turner County#14 (2 - A)6-421.3241.701.01215.434,640.83
Washington-Wilkes#16 (7 - A)6-421.8847.520.9956.7017,634.69
Manchester#9 (4 - A)8-221.1147.371.0749.2420,308.62
Emanuel County Institute#20 (3 - A)5-521.9748.550.5424.4740,871.24
Warren County#21 (7 - A)6-418.9248.120.9916.4160,932.19
McIntosh County Academy#13 (3 - A)4-620.1948.530.5013.0176,849.43
Schley County#18 (4 - A)6-412.4241.220.366.50153,873.10
Trion#23 (6 - A)5-514.8542.890.115.90169,469.48
Macon County#19 (4 - A)6-49.9642.250.241.26795,496.00
Taylor County#24 (4 - A)5-52.4947.750.130.01122,699,377.79
Terrell County#12 (1 - A)7-3-2.3348.330.120.00990,069,858.05
Chattahoochee County#17 (1 - A)6-4-11.7247.960.030.00148,401,641,756.41
Seminole County#22 (1 - A)5-5-24.5142.780.000.0019,834,526,528,874.80

Class A Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Champion Odds
Holy Innocents#2 (5 - A)10-075.3755.713.93452,015.541.21
Fellowship Christian#4 (6 - A)10-066.2651.313.90260,723.912.84
Eagle's Landing Christian#6 (5 - A)9-172.1862.902.91174,311.754.74
Athens Academy#3 (8 - A)10-067.2162.852.6184,993.4010.77
Wesleyan#9 (5 - A)8-254.0758.402.2718,330.6553.55
Darlington#7 (6 - A)9-153.1264.162.074,255.24234.00
Christian Heritage#8 (6 - A)9-146.1459.121.632,460.77405.38
Savannah Country Day#1 (3 - A)10-041.3557.471.991,265.60789.14
Hebron Christian#12 (8 - A)6-443.9559.461.381,140.90875.50
Prince Avenue Christian#11 (8 - A)8-248.6868.221.04221.354,516.67
Mount de Sales#5 (7 - A)10-036.3359.081.44166.136,018.49
Savannah Christian#16 (3 - A)6-334.0959.491.0345.3422,053.05
North Cobb Christian#13 (6 - A)7-334.7659.990.6839.3725,401.95
Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)#15 (5 - A)7-337.5665.930.769.94100,583.26
Mount Vernon Presbyterian#21 (5 - A)5-532.1860.280.309.70103,101.98
Whitefield Academy#14 (6 - A)7-337.4067.930.975.56179,840.97
George Walton Academy#20 (8 - A)6-429.9360.220.364.15241,142.93
Calvary Day#17 (3 - A)6-423.6859.810.270.372,693,466.71
Aquinas#10 (7 - A)7-325.4765.700.730.166,264,651.05
St. Francis#18 (6 - A)6-428.2366.150.260.137,917,612.05
First Presbyterian#24 (7 - A)5-521.1961.000.030.0426,763,885.13
Mount Paran Christian#23 (6 - A)5-418.5365.770.320.00216,694,975.66
Stratford Academy#22 (7 - A)4-619.6268.890.050.002,845,139,615.29
Brookstone#19 (4 - A)6-412.3168.160.070.0033,492,524,814.71

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