AAA: Maxwell projects playoff draws, results

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons, approximately 51 each second.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. In Class AAA, there are 2.14 x 10^35 possible brackets. For comparison, scientists estimate there are 7.5 x 10^18 grains of sand on earth.

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.