By Todd Holcomb
Aug 13, 2014The Maxwell Ratings have predicted the region standings and the won-lost records of Georgia’s Class AAA teams. The computer ratings are the work of Loren Maxwell, founder of the Georgia High School Football Historical Association. He has been involved with sports ratings since 1986.
His region-by- region breakdowns are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 trials at the rate of approximately 51 seasons per second.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the Monte Carlo simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure (i.e., schedules, region alignments, etc.).
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAA team).
Although some regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all region standings were deciding by recursive head-to-head comparisons with all remaining ties being broken randomly.
Region Strength and Parity
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Parity Index”, which is the probability of the region champion being a different team in two consecutive simulations adjusted for the number of teams in the region. The Parity Index takes into account each team’s schedule and game site. A higher Parity Index indicates a region whose championship is more open than a region with a lower Parity Index.
| Region |
Competitive Rating |
Average Rating |
Parity Index |
| 4 - Div B - AAA |
63.24 |
42.52 |
0.639 |
| 8 - AAA |
61.85 |
41.60 |
0.589 |
| 5 - AAA |
60.25 |
41.37 |
0.576 |
| 3 - AAA |
58.55 |
26.08 |
0.181 |
| 1 - Div A - AAA |
55.80 |
38.45 |
0.784 |
| 6 - AAA |
53.43 |
21.64 |
0.267 |
| 2 - AAA |
51.89 |
30.72 |
0.607 |
| 4 - Div A - AAA |
51.05 |
31.50 |
0.282 |
| 7 - AAA |
43.96 |
27.98 |
0.761 |
| 1 - Div B - AAA |
39.43 |
23.11 |
0.796 |
Region by Region Breakdown
Each team is shown with its rating, schedule strength, projected overall and region records, average finish in the region, and the number of times winning the region along with its associated odds.
1 - Div A - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Cook |
14 |
52.10 |
33.71 |
7.82-2.18 |
4.75-1.25 |
1.93 |
442,282 |
1.26 |
| Appling County |
15 |
50.02 |
36.07 |
7.46-2.54 |
4.49-1.51 |
2.41 |
281,593 |
2.55 |
| Pierce County |
17 |
47.91 |
33.89 |
7.63-2.37 |
4.19-1.81 |
2.64 |
226,823 |
3.41 |
| Dodge County |
24 |
38.98 |
36.08 |
5.71-4.29 |
3.05-2.95 |
3.93 |
41,462 |
23.12 |
| Toombs County |
37 |
30.30 |
38.28 |
3.98-6.02 |
1.94-4.06 |
5.24 |
4,073 |
244.52 |
| Tattnall County |
38 |
29.97 |
31.81 |
4.99-5.01 |
1.96-4.04 |
5.24 |
3,735 |
266.74 |
| Brantley County |
55 |
16.71 |
33.84 |
3.03-6.97 |
0.61-5.39 |
6.61 |
32 |
31,249.00 |
1 - Div B - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Jenkins |
27 |
34.92 |
31.53 |
5.37-4.63 |
3.87-1.13 |
1.93 |
466,554 |
1.14 |
| Johnson (Savannah) |
36 |
32.05 |
25.49 |
5.67-4.33 |
3.53-1.47 |
2.34 |
305,394 |
2.27 |
| Southeast Bulloch |
42 |
26.10 |
31.34 |
3.81-6.19 |
2.96-2.04 |
2.97 |
149,162 |
5.70 |
| Savannah |
51 |
20.63 |
28.67 |
3.43-6.57 |
2.18-2.82 |
3.92 |
42,905 |
22.31 |
| Beach |
52 |
20.36 |
26.87 |
3.57-6.43 |
2.15-2.86 |
4.00 |
35,864 |
26.88 |
| Islands |
67 |
-1.20 |
24.70 |
0.90-9.10 |
0.32-4.68 |
5.84 |
121 |
8,263.46 |
2 - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Westside (Macon) |
8 |
56.59 |
32.59 |
8.30-1.70 |
7.10-0.90 |
1.60 |
519,244 |
0.93 |
| Peach County |
9 |
55.62 |
32.34 |
8.05-1.95 |
7.10-0.90 |
1.73 |
435,108 |
1.30 |
| Rutland |
25 |
37.84 |
28.84 |
6.43-3.57 |
5.03-2.97 |
3.73 |
34,792 |
27.74 |
| Jackson |
35 |
32.19 |
31.05 |
5.18-4.82 |
4.31-3.70 |
4.47 |
6,892 |
144.10 |
| Kendrick |
33 |
33.21 |
27.39 |
5.89-4.11 |
4.34-3.66 |
4.51 |
3,580 |
278.33 |
| Spencer |
44 |
24.86 |
35.16 |
3.42-6.58 |
3.09-4.92 |
5.91 |
344 |
2,905.98 |
| Central (Macon) |
50 |
20.65 |
31.23 |
3.28-6.72 |
2.48-5.52 |
6.79 |
40 |
24,999.00 |
| Southwest |
61 |
12.90 |
36.02 |
1.55-8.45 |
1.47-6.53 |
7.87 |
- |
- |
| Jordan |
64 |
9.58 |
32.48 |
1.37-8.63 |
1.09-6.91 |
8.40 |
- |
- |
3 - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Washington County |
1 |
79.61 |
38.26 |
9.34-0.66 |
5.90-0.10 |
1.09 |
915,575 |
0.09 |
| Laney |
13 |
54.46 |
32.05 |
7.66-2.34 |
4.92-1.08 |
2.01 |
83,050 |
11.04 |
| Glenn Hills |
40 |
28.73 |
39.46 |
3.90-6.10 |
3.25-2.75 |
3.57 |
845 |
1,182.43 |
| Westside (Augusta) |
41 |
26.11 |
34.63 |
3.79-6.21 |
2.99-3.01 |
3.95 |
491 |
2,035.66 |
| Butler |
59 |
13.11 |
23.89 |
3.14-5.86 |
2.44-4.56 |
5.25 |
32 |
31,249.00 |
| Hephzibah |
62 |
12.53 |
15.44 |
4.62-5.38 |
1.65-4.35 |
5.52 |
7 |
142,856.14 |
| Josey |
66 |
0.73 |
26.55 |
1.13-8.87 |
0.85-6.16 |
6.61 |
- |
- |
4 - Div A - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Cedar Grove |
6 |
58.95 |
33.02 |
8.52-1.48 |
4.75-0.25 |
1.16 |
870,949 |
0.15 |
| North Clayton |
28 |
34.41 |
37.57 |
4.25-5.75 |
2.82-2.18 |
3.06 |
71,427 |
13.00 |
| Towers |
32 |
33.25 |
39.38 |
3.83-6.17 |
2.70-2.31 |
3.20 |
31,887 |
30.36 |
| Maynard Jackson |
52 |
32.07 |
37.06 |
4.12-5.88 |
2.57-2.43 |
3.44 |
21,889 |
44.69 |
| McNair |
45 |
23.09 |
29.41 |
3.95-6.05 |
1.57-3.43 |
4.63 |
3,772 |
264.11 |
| South Atlanta |
63 |
12.37 |
34.69 |
1.90-8.10 |
0.60-4.41 |
5.52 |
76 |
13,156.89 |
4 - Div B - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Blessed Trinity |
3 |
64.73 |
44.92 |
7.97-2.03 |
4.42-0.58 |
1.50 |
617,852 |
0.62 |
| Westminster (Atlanta) |
7 |
56.75 |
46.38 |
6.66-3.34 |
3.74-1.26 |
2.20 |
284,277 |
2.52 |
| Decatur |
19 |
46.35 |
39.58 |
6.14-3.86 |
2.91-2.09 |
3.24 |
49,416 |
19.24 |
| Washington |
20 |
45.78 |
41.09 |
5.82-4.18 |
2.72-2.28 |
3.19 |
48,416 |
19.65 |
| Douglass |
56 |
15.68 |
37.27 |
2.92-7.08 |
0.66-4.34 |
5.35 |
24 |
41,665.67 |
| Therrell |
58 |
13.66 |
36.25 |
1.94-8.06 |
0.54-4.46 |
5.52 |
15 |
66,665.67 |
5 - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Callaway |
4 |
63.78 |
44.80 |
8.27-1.73 |
4.52-0.48 |
1.41 |
688,906 |
0.45 |
| Cedartown |
16 |
48.41 |
44.03 |
5.86-4.14 |
3.29-1.71 |
2.52 |
169,048 |
4.92 |
| Central (Carrollton) |
18 |
47.65 |
39.02 |
6.61-3.39 |
3.19-1.82 |
2.82 |
131,101 |
6.63 |
| Pepperell |
29 |
34.16 |
40.58 |
3.90-6.10 |
1.75-3.25 |
4.24 |
5,767 |
172.40 |
| Rockmart |
30 |
33.98 |
36.17 |
4.59-5.41 |
1.70-3.30 |
4.49 |
5,119 |
194.35 |
| Haralson County |
48 |
21.87 |
34.51 |
3.09-6.91 |
0.56-4.44 |
5.53 |
59 |
16,948.15 |
6 - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Calhoun |
2 |
75.60 |
25.78 |
9.05-0.95 |
7.83-0.17 |
1.15 |
864,485 |
0.16 |
| Ringgold |
10 |
55.30 |
20.16 |
8.31-1.69 |
6.80-1.20 |
2.09 |
123,635 |
7.09 |
| Adairsville |
21 |
41.27 |
25.32 |
6.69-3.31 |
5.88-2.12 |
3.06 |
11,650 |
84.84 |
| Sonoraville |
46 |
22.91 |
24.62 |
4.78-5.22 |
4.14-3.86 |
4.89 |
134 |
7,461.69 |
| North Murray |
49 |
21.86 |
23.01 |
4.88-5.12 |
4.01-3.99 |
4.87 |
90 |
11,110.11 |
| Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe |
54 |
17.29 |
20.69 |
4.53-5.47 |
3.50-4.50 |
5.34 |
6 |
166,665.67 |
| Coahulla Creek |
65 |
3.65 |
22.94 |
2.58-7.42 |
2.05-5.95 |
7.05 |
- |
- |
| Gordon Central |
68 |
-5.58 |
25.51 |
1.30-8.70 |
1.20-6.80 |
7.93 |
- |
- |
| Murray County |
69 |
-14.22 |
25.64 |
0.60-9.40 |
0.58-7.42 |
8.61 |
- |
- |
7 - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Dawson County |
23 |
39.47 |
26.65 |
7.39-2.61 |
4.62-1.38 |
1.87 |
508,404 |
0.97 |
| West Hall |
26 |
36.99 |
33.56 |
5.55-4.45 |
4.29-1.71 |
2.59 |
247,214 |
3.05 |
| East Hall |
34 |
32.94 |
28.90 |
5.82-4.18 |
3.71-2.29 |
3.04 |
150,383 |
5.65 |
| Lumpkin County |
39 |
29.95 |
27.07 |
5.58-4.42 |
3.27-2.73 |
3.64 |
73,130 |
12.67 |
| Franklin County |
47 |
22.60 |
30.41 |
3.63-6.37 |
2.22-3.78 |
5.11 |
15,815 |
62.23 |
| Fannin County |
53 |
19.82 |
25.38 |
4.10-5.90 |
1.87-4.14 |
5.40 |
4,613 |
215.78 |
| Banks County |
60 |
13.02 |
25.15 |
2.91-7.09 |
1.03-4.97 |
6.35 |
441 |
2,266.57 |
8 - AAA
|
Projected Record |
|
| Team |
Rank |
Rating |
Sch Str |
Overall |
Region |
Avg Fin |
First |
Odds |
| Jefferson |
5 |
63.68 |
37.60 |
8.70-1.30 |
5.24-0.76 |
1.49 |
666,624 |
0.50 |
| Elbert County |
12 |
54.61 |
45.02 |
6.72-3.28 |
4.38-1.62 |
2.39 |
167,769 |
4.96 |
| Hart County |
11 |
54.72 |
38.00 |
7.14-2.86 |
4.43-1.57 |
2.62 |
148,291 |
5.74 |
| Morgan County |
22 |
40.51 |
35.27 |
5.74-4.26 |
2.85-3.15 |
4.11 |
15,033 |
65.52 |
| Jackson County |
31 |
33.97 |
39.86 |
4.01-5.99 |
2.18-3.82 |
5.02 |
1,966 |
507.65 |
| Oconee County |
43 |
25.99 |
32.90 |
3.98-6.02 |
1.42-4.58 |
5.71 |
314 |
3,183.71 |
| East Jackson |
57 |
14.29 |
30.94 |
2.93-7.07 |
0.50-5.50 |
6.67 |
3 |
333,332.33 |
