Atlanta United can likely turn the MLS Eastern Conference playoff race into a six-team battle royale with a win against New England on Wednesday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The website FiveThirtyEight.com calculates the Five Stripes as having a 95-percent probability to make the playoffs after the Week 27 results, which included the team posting a 3-0 win against Dallas on Sunday.
- x-Toronto FC: 100%
- New York City FC: >99%
- Chicago Fire: 98%
- Atlanta United: 95%
- New York Red Bulls: 93%
- Columbus Crew SC: 82%
- New England Revolution: 16%
- Montreal Impact: 13%
- Orlando City SC: 3%
- Philadelphia Union:
- D.C. United:
As you can see, there is a giant drop off between the sixth team, Columbus and its 82 percent rate of probability, and New England, in seventh at 16 percent. The Revs’ probability would likely decrease even more if it can’t post a win against Atlanta United. Columbus will play at Vancouver on Saturday.
Several Atlanta United players recognized the importance of Sunday’s win against Dallas and the impact it may have on the playoff race.
“We’ve put ourselves in a good spot,” captain Michael Parkhurst said. “We wanted to do that. Makes the New England game important. We know they are coming in right behind us. If we can win that game, we can really separate ourselves from them and not have to worry about them anymore.”
But at least one player wasn’t ready to concede that the only thing left to play for is playoff seeding.
“Lot of games to be played and a lot of points to play for,” goalkeeper Brad Guzan said. “Ask me again at the end of September.”
Atlanta United is in sixth in the Eastern Conference with 39 points, but fourth in points-per-game average (1.56).
The Five Stripes have several advantages over the teams it is chasing.
First, is it has played just 25 games. It has played at least two fewer games than every team it is chasing in the East.
Second, it will play its next five games at home and seven of its next nine at home. That’s the most remaining home games of any MLS team. Atlanta United is 7-2-1 at home this season.
Because of the number of games remaining and its home record, Atlanta United could climb to as high as third in the East with a little luck by season’s end. It trails third-place Chicago by six points, but has three games in hand.
“We’ve put ourselves in a good spot,” Parkhurst said. “We’ve wanted to do this. We’ve worked hard all year to put ourselves in this spot and take advantage of some home games.”
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