Maxwell playoff projections heading into Quarterfinals
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2020 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.
Class AAAAAAA
Modal bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colquitt County | #1 (1 - AAAAAAA) | 9-0 | 109.54 | 94.94 | 4.20 | 910,382.15 | 693,584.66 | 596,130.63 | 0.68 |
| Grayson | #1 (4 - AAAAAAA) | 11-0 | 100.66 | 96.57 | 3.42 | 943,061.02 | 281,118.48 | 192,943.46 | 4.18 |
| Lowndes | #2 (1 - AAAAAAA) | 9-1 | 97.95 | 95.57 | 3.56 | 782,364.23 | 615,332.37 | 166,222.17 | 5.02 |
| Collins Hill | #1 (8 - AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 87.42 | 96.24 | 2.96 | 714,535.36 | 225,675.44 | 22,536.32 | 43.37 |
| Norcross | #1 (7 - AAAAAAA) | 12-0 | 90.68 | 102.17 | 2.12 | 89,617.85 | 23,395.95 | 9,857.05 | 100.45 |
| Milton | #1 (5 - AAAAAAA) | 10-1 | 85.88 | 97.78 | 2.34 | 217,635.77 | 112,336.83 | 9,539.97 | 103.82 |
| Parkview | #2 (4 - AAAAAAA) | 8-3 | 81.61 | 98.30 | 2.33 | 285,464.64 | 46,655.36 | 2,486.55 | 401.16 |
| West Forsyth | #1 (6 - AAAAAAA) | 9-3 | 77.83 | 101.62 | 2.06 | 56,938.98 | 1,900.92 | 283.86 | 3,521.91 |
Class AAAAAA
Modal bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee County | #1 (1 - AAAAAA) | 10-1 | 94.16 | 84.94 | 3.91 | 886,819.92 | 617,262.59 | 410,184.44 | 1.44 | |
| Buford | #1 (8 - AAAAAA) | 10-1 | 90.14 | 87.03 | 3.35 | 701,589.89 | 441,212.65 | 202,770.07 | 3.93 | |
| Valdosta | #2 (1 - AAAAAA) | 7-3 | 89.41 | 88.13 | 3.21 | 710,910.82 | 348,285.25 | 152,829.91 | 5.54 | |
| Westlake | #1 (4 - AAAAAA) | 10-1 | 89.08 | 88.47 | 3.06 | 658,054.32 | 263,683.78 | 136,773.27 | 6.31 | |
| Hughes | #2 (4 - AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 84.84 | 90.31 | 2.47 | 298,410.11 | 127,357.96 | 40,159.26 | 23.90 | |
| Allatoona | #1 (6 - AAAAAA) | 11-0 | 83.76 | 90.06 | 2.47 | 341,945.68 | 92,553.15 | 33,656.72 | 28.71 | |
| Carrollton | #1 (5 - AAAAAA) | 8-2 | 80.44 | 89.16 | 2.39 | 289,089.18 | 83,144.14 | 18,016.70 | 54.50 | |
| River Ridge | #1 (7 - AAAAAA) | 11-0 | 77.42 | 90.21 | 2.15 | 113,180.08 | 26,500.48 | 5,609.62 | 177.27 |
Class AAAAA
Modal bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warner Robins | #1 (1 - AAAAA) | 9-2 | 92.34 | 83.24 | 3.59 | 618,733.96 | 577,202.56 | 391,812.65 | 1.55 | |
| Ware County | #2 (1 - AAAAA) | 10-1 | 88.55 | 85.49 | 3.23 | 601,041.81 | 427,563.89 | 199,595.52 | 4.01 | |
| Blessed Trinity | #1 (7 - AAAAA) | 8-0 | 88.40 | 85.08 | 2.92 | 381,266.04 | 341,547.16 | 194,085.91 | 4.15 | |
| Coffee | #3 (1 - AAAAA) | 9-2 | 84.70 | 85.83 | 3.10 | 728,493.61 | 273,500.51 | 99,027.21 | 9.10 | |
| Cartersville | #2 (7 - AAAAA) | 10-1 | 85.22 | 86.70 | 2.74 | 398,958.19 | 248,918.62 | 93,477.43 | 9.70 | |
| Jones County | #1 (4 - AAAAA) | 9-3 | 72.52 | 83.67 | 2.78 | 704,895.94 | 68,488.75 | 11,255.51 | 87.85 | |
| Calhoun | #3 (7 - AAAAA) | 9-3 | 76.67 | 87.81 | 2.33 | 271,506.39 | 50,016.98 | 9,562.06 | 103.58 | |
| Eastside | #2 (8 - AAAAA) | 10-2 | 67.10 | 85.66 | 2.31 | 295,104.06 | 12,761.53 | 1,183.71 | 843.80 |
Class AAAA
Modal bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson | #1 (8 - AAAA) | 10-0 | 87.66 | 71.63 | 4.42 | 948,285.74 | 845,084.49 | 628,662.81 | 0.59 | |
| Marist | #1 (6 - AAAA) | 10-0 | 81.12 | 75.48 | 3.82 | 923,291.03 | 646,658.22 | 247,157.55 | 3.05 | |
| Bainbridge | #1 (1 - AAAA) | 9-3 | 75.40 | 79.70 | 2.87 | 592,989.93 | 220,266.54 | 55,685.58 | 16.96 | |
| Benedictine | #1 (3 - AAAA) | 8-2 | 71.88 | 77.85 | 3.00 | 826,322.84 | 129,346.22 | 40,401.13 | 23.75 | |
| Cedartown | #1 (7 - AAAA) | 7-2 | 72.34 | 80.47 | 2.55 | 407,010.07 | 120,406.14 | 23,793.76 | 41.03 | |
| Carver (Columbus) | #1 (2 - AAAA) | 10-0 | 64.00 | 80.11 | 2.07 | 51,714.26 | 17,545.56 | 2,687.02 | 371.16 | |
| Perry | #1 (4 - AAAA) | 8-4 | 60.88 | 80.59 | 2.09 | 76,708.97 | 12,669.10 | 866.60 | 1,152.93 | |
| Riverdale | #1 (5 - AAAA) | 8-2 | 59.19 | 79.88 | 2.18 | 173,677.16 | 8,023.73 | 745.55 | 1,340.29 |
Class AAA
Modal bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Grove | #3 (5 - AAA) | 7-0 | 88.91 | 80.19 | 3.67 | 723,319.09 | 540,927.02 | 404,625.77 | 1.47 | |
| Oconee County | #1 (8 - AAA) | 10-0 | 82.91 | 79.85 | 3.26 | 615,021.78 | 442,912.90 | 201,534.11 | 3.96 | |
| Pierce County | #1 (1 - AAA) | 10-1 | 79.74 | 78.29 | 3.29 | 838,189.80 | 302,209.84 | 150,725.82 | 5.63 | |
| Peach County | #1 (2 - AAA) | 9-1 | 79.10 | 81.21 | 2.71 | 384,978.22 | 237,685.11 | 83,767.75 | 10.94 | |
| Crisp County | #2 (2 - AAA) | 10-1 | 79.44 | 82.54 | 2.48 | 276,680.91 | 137,977.32 | 67,565.00 | 13.80 | |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | #1 (5 - AAA) | 10-1 | 76.13 | 80.36 | 2.81 | 565,786.01 | 194,570.99 | 54,493.24 | 17.35 | |
| Appling County | #2 (1 - AAA) | 9-1 | 75.63 | 81.94 | 2.59 | 434,213.99 | 124,831.01 | 33,563.22 | 28.79 | |
| Carver (Atlanta) | #2 (5 - AAA) | 5-5 | 68.02 | 82.21 | 2.18 | 161,810.20 | 18,885.82 | 3,725.08 | 267.45 |
Class AA
Modal bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitzgerald | #1 (1 - AA) | 11-0 | 80.97 | 66.02 | 4.34 | 901,737.33 | 836,010.87 | 598,957.58 | 0.67 | |
| Rabun County | #1 (8 - AA) | 11-1 | 75.50 | 69.79 | 3.74 | 868,835.30 | 615,040.75 | 258,954.35 | 2.86 | |
| Thomasville | #2 (1 - AA) | 8-4 | 71.53 | 73.79 | 2.98 | 643,164.32 | 254,111.87 | 82,739.27 | 11.09 | |
| Callaway | #1 (5 - AA) | 8-1 | 65.08 | 74.09 | 2.47 | 356,835.68 | 97,708.49 | 19,803.59 | 49.50 | |
| Jefferson County | #1 (4 - AA) | 9-2 | 61.85 | 71.62 | 2.78 | 681,381.64 | 84,706.86 | 17,949.74 | 54.71 | |
| Fannin County | #1 (7 - AA) | 10-0 | 62.94 | 73.22 | 2.17 | 98,262.67 | 57,935.18 | 13,551.93 | 72.79 | |
| Bleckley County | #4 (3 - AA) | 8-3 | 61.78 | 75.64 | 2.17 | 131,164.70 | 33,138.89 | 5,130.13 | 193.93 | |
| Bremen | #3 (5 - AA) | 8-4 | 57.32 | 73.66 | 2.34 | 318,618.36 | 21,347.10 | 2,913.43 | 342.24 |
Class A Public
Modal bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks County | #2 (2 - A Public) | 11-1 | 73.10 | 62.15 | 4.03 | 824,222.59 | 730,333.54 | 471,701.51 | 1.12 | |
| Metter | #1 (3 - A Public) | 12-0 | 68.71 | 63.13 | 3.72 | 946,322.82 | 524,141.56 | 247,590.19 | 3.04 | |
| Irwin County | #1 (2 - A Public) | 9-3 | 68.98 | 66.41 | 3.29 | 722,462.54 | 384,287.40 | 184,334.75 | 4.42 | |
| Clinch County | #3 (2 - A Public) | 8-3 | 59.68 | 65.86 | 2.92 | 748,562.47 | 139,242.39 | 36,992.08 | 26.03 | |
| Washington-Wilkes | #2 (8 - A Public) | 9-1 | 60.54 | 67.04 | 2.32 | 175,777.41 | 111,324.43 | 31,858.29 | 30.39 | |
| Commerce | #1 (8 - A Public) | 11-1 | 61.20 | 68.81 | 2.39 | 277,537.46 | 87,692.20 | 25,104.04 | 38.83 | |
| Lincoln County | #3 (8 - A Public) | 7-4 | 50.81 | 67.43 | 2.27 | 251,437.53 | 19,099.64 | 2,117.10 | 471.34 | |
| Warren County | #2 (7 - A Public) | 9-2 | 47.03 | 69.53 | 2.06 | 53,677.18 | 3,878.85 | 302.04 | 3,309.80 |
Class A Private
Modal bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fellowship Christian | #1 (6 - A Private) | 10-0 | 80.10 | 64.43 | 4.38 | 933,959.05 | 861,259.82 | 589,064.13 | 0.70 | |
| Prince Avenue Christian | #1 (8 - A Private) | 10-1 | 76.92 | 69.91 | 3.67 | 717,869.55 | 645,818.32 | 301,809.25 | 2.31 | |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | #1 (2 - A Private) | 8-3 | 69.32 | 72.97 | 2.56 | 282,130.45 | 219,749.79 | 61,624.86 | 15.23 | |
| George Walton Academy | #3 (8 - A Private) | 9-2 | 63.41 | 72.10 | 2.86 | 743,497.85 | 95,152.82 | 24,681.28 | 39.52 | |
| Savannah Christian | #1 (3 - A Private) | 10-1 | 59.16 | 72.01 | 2.58 | 504,904.42 | 68,431.37 | 8,270.66 | 119.91 | |
| Wesleyan | #1 (5 - A Private) | 10-2 | 59.00 | 72.04 | 2.57 | 495,095.58 | 66,000.52 | 7,861.81 | 126.20 | |
| Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | #1 (4 - A Private) | 9-2 | 58.55 | 72.72 | 2.10 | 66,040.95 | 31,743.76 | 5,472.53 | 181.73 | |
| Calvary Day | #2 (3 - A Private) | 7-4 | 53.09 | 73.14 | 2.27 | 256,502.15 | 11,843.60 | 1,215.50 | 821.71 |
