Maxwell playoff projections heading into Quarterfinals
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2021 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.
Class AAAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins Hill | #1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAAA) | 11-0 | 109.99 | 84.81 | 4.77 | 970,475.50 | 938,780.60 | 856,542.45 | 0.17 |
| Mill Creek | #2 (GHSA 8-AAAAAAA) | 11-1 | 92.98 | 97.57 | 3.00 | 578,598.90 | 366,668.13 | 56,640.37 | 16.66 |
| Brookwood | #1 (GHSA 4-AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 89.50 | 96.77 | 3.01 | 668,480.46 | 306,953.17 | 35,548.89 | 27.13 |
| Milton | #1 (GHSA 5-AAAAAAA) | 11-1 | 89.34 | 97.85 | 2.68 | 421,401.10 | 232,321.21 | 26,555.83 | 36.66 |
| Roswell | #2 (GHSA 5-AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 83.59 | 97.57 | 2.58 | 547,092.72 | 27,583.38 | 8,595.38 | 115.34 |
| Walton | #3 (GHSA 3-AAAAAAA) | 8-3 | 84.69 | 98.60 | 2.43 | 331,519.54 | 94,057.49 | 7,238.95 | 137.14 |
| Grayson | #2 (GHSA 4-AAAAAAA) | 9-3 | 82.02 | 97.80 | 2.48 | 452,907.28 | 19,609.99 | 5,359.37 | 185.59 |
| Lowndes | #1 (GHSA 1-AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 81.04 | 97.59 | 2.05 | 29,524.50 | 14,026.04 | 3,518.76 | 283.19 |
Class AAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | #1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 96.86 | 82.40 | 4.04 | 766,997.72 | 673,839.92 | 600,689.91 | 0.66 |
| Hughes | #1 (GHSA 4-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 82.25 | 81.61 | 3.39 | 714,658.79 | 544,637.80 | 132,478.87 | 6.55 |
| Lee County | #1 (GHSA 1-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 86.98 | 87.09 | 2.51 | 233,002.28 | 160,203.13 | 115,482.72 | 7.66 |
| Westlake | #2 (GHSA 4-AAAAAA) | 10-2 | 82.11 | 86.30 | 2.70 | 544,239.31 | 96,088.62 | 57,258.93 | 16.46 |
| Carrollton | #2 (GHSA 5-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 80.64 | 86.70 | 2.56 | 455,760.69 | 69,868.33 | 38,768.74 | 24.79 |
| Johns Creek | #4 (GHSA 7-AAAAAA) | 9-3 | 74.87 | 83.67 | 2.76 | 561,401.13 | 178,529.24 | 22,503.76 | 43.44 |
| Northside (Warner Robins) | #2 (GHSA 1-AAAAAA) | 8-3 | 75.64 | 84.32 | 2.47 | 285,341.21 | 165,430.68 | 22,464.86 | 43.51 |
| Dacula | #2 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA) | 8-4 | 71.82 | 83.79 | 2.56 | 438,598.87 | 111,402.28 | 10,352.21 | 95.60 |
Class AAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warner Robins | #2 (GHSA 1-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 91.48 | 78.56 | 4.13 | 931,596.50 | 684,304.23 | 517,971.62 | 0.93 |
| Calhoun | #2 (GHSA 7-AAAAA) | 10-2 | 84.21 | 77.47 | 3.92 | 909,425.33 | 741,381.49 | 272,624.50 | 2.67 |
| Creekside | #2 (GHSA 3-AAAAA) | 10-2 | 84.09 | 81.46 | 3.36 | 897,540.23 | 295,091.94 | 169,087.42 | 4.91 |
| Blessed Trinity | #3 (GHSA 7-AAAAA) | 8-4 | 74.26 | 81.17 | 3.08 | 830,774.86 | 215,698.24 | 34,404.03 | 28.07 |
| Jones County | #1 (GHSA 4-AAAAA) | 10-2 | 68.83 | 85.02 | 2.08 | 68,403.50 | 13,611.29 | 2,762.12 | 361.04 |
| Clarke Central | #1 (GHSA 8-AAAAA) | 10-2 | 64.08 | 82.41 | 2.12 | 90,574.67 | 28,176.86 | 1,596.05 | 625.55 |
| Whitewater | #1 (GHSA 2-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 65.09 | 84.85 | 2.11 | 102,459.77 | 6,992.54 | 1,015.70 | 983.54 |
| Villa Rica | #1 (GHSA 6-AAAAA) | 9-2 | 60.07 | 82.22 | 2.18 | 169,225.14 | 14,743.40 | 538.56 | 1,855.80 |
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedictine | #1 (GHSA 3-AAAA) | 10-2 | 93.54 | 76.59 | 4.30 | 837,313.37 | 774,903.34 | 685,726.55 | 0.46 |
| Carver (Columbus) | #1 (GHSA 2-AAAA) | 10-1 | 77.27 | 78.93 | 3.36 | 833,675.95 | 437,341.26 | 93,404.06 | 9.71 |
| Marist | #1 (GHSA 6-AAAA) | 10-1 | 79.96 | 82.99 | 2.35 | 162,686.63 | 115,102.52 | 69,195.98 | 13.45 |
| Perry | #1 (GHSA 4-AAAA) | 11-1 | 76.80 | 81.20 | 2.86 | 521,576.25 | 282,818.99 | 58,211.29 | 16.18 |
| Cedartown | #1 (GHSA 7-AAAA) | 10-1 | 76.08 | 81.41 | 2.78 | 478,423.75 | 249,814.51 | 48,588.81 | 19.58 |
| North Oconee | #1 (GHSA 8-AAAA) | 9-3 | 73.44 | 81.36 | 2.65 | 556,139.08 | 66,203.56 | 27,109.16 | 35.89 |
| Bainbridge | #1 (GHSA 1-AAAA) | 8-3 | 71.57 | 81.76 | 2.50 | 443,860.92 | 43,790.58 | 15,635.31 | 62.96 |
| Dougherty | #3 (GHSA 1-AAAA) | 10-2 | 64.92 | 82.38 | 2.20 | 166,324.05 | 30,025.24 | 2,128.84 | 468.74 |
Class AAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierce County | #1 (GHSA 1-AAA) | 10-2 | 73.05 | 67.96 | 3.45 | 682,190.16 | 495,430.60 | 268,898.35 | 2.72 |
| Thomson | #1 (GHSA 4-AAA) | 11-0 | 72.74 | 70.47 | 3.05 | 559,850.34 | 312,068.90 | 182,248.58 | 4.49 |
| Crisp County | #1 (GHSA 2-AAA) | 9-3 | 71.10 | 70.76 | 2.90 | 516,921.35 | 246,597.99 | 132,448.15 | 6.55 |
| Appling County | #2 (GHSA 1-AAA) | 11-1 | 71.75 | 71.88 | 2.78 | 440,149.66 | 218,995.46 | 121,742.61 | 7.21 |
| Cedar Grove | #1 (GHSA 5-AAA) | 9-3 | 70.53 | 70.95 | 2.82 | 483,078.65 | 222,337.64 | 115,811.51 | 7.63 |
| Burke County | #2 (GHSA 4-AAA) | 9-2 | 66.87 | 69.74 | 2.83 | 563,894.06 | 198,779.74 | 71,695.68 | 12.95 |
| Peach County | #2 (GHSA 2-AAA) | 8-3 | 67.73 | 70.83 | 2.56 | 317,809.84 | 175,884.86 | 67,677.35 | 13.78 |
| Carver (Atlanta) | #2 (GHSA 5-AAA) | 8-2 | 64.74 | 70.31 | 2.61 | 436,105.94 | 129,904.81 | 39,477.77 | 24.33 |
Class AA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rabun County | #1 (GHSA 8-AA) | 11-1 | 76.17 | 67.48 | 3.36 | 522,687.27 | 476,628.12 | 365,239.06 | 1.74 |
| Thomasville | #1 (GHSA 1-AA) | 11-1 | 75.41 | 67.85 | 3.23 | 477,312.73 | 431,658.12 | 323,807.25 | 2.09 |
| Fitzgerald | #2 (GHSA 1-AA) | 10-2 | 69.18 | 66.52 | 3.47 | 781,005.47 | 511,067.52 | 181,152.54 | 4.52 |
| Swainsboro | #1 (GHSA 2-AA) | 10-2 | 63.69 | 67.97 | 2.85 | 554,949.76 | 241,379.41 | 55,966.27 | 16.87 |
| Northeast | #2 (GHSA 3-AA) | 9-3 | 62.86 | 69.04 | 2.65 | 445,050.24 | 171,427.01 | 37,113.46 | 25.94 |
| Callaway | #2 (GHSA 5-AA) | 9-2 | 59.31 | 67.79 | 2.74 | 647,526.41 | 69,921.58 | 22,238.32 | 43.97 |
| Putnam County | #1 (GHSA 4-AA) | 12-0 | 57.64 | 68.93 | 2.31 | 218,994.53 | 76,126.06 | 10,389.06 | 95.26 |
| South Atlanta | #1 (GHSA 6-AA) | 11-1 | 53.26 | 67.98 | 2.38 | 352,473.59 | 21,792.18 | 4,094.05 | 243.26 |
Class A Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metter | #1 (GHSA 3-A Public) | 12-0 | 71.39 | 60.45 | 4.03 | 924,227.83 | 654,607.53 | 448,316.16 | 1.23 |
| Macon County | #1 (GHSA 5-A Public) | 11-0 | 66.58 | 63.03 | 3.21 | 531,664.83 | 477,512.17 | 201,254.07 | 3.97 |
| Brooks County | #2 (GHSA 2-A Public) | 9-2 | 65.83 | 62.85 | 3.43 | 928,157.68 | 327,981.80 | 175,220.62 | 4.71 |
| Irwin County | #1 (GHSA 2-A Public) | 10-2 | 65.53 | 63.46 | 3.05 | 468,335.17 | 414,918.81 | 162,681.84 | 5.15 |
| Manchester | #4 (GHSA 5-A Public) | 7-4 | 49.79 | 63.77 | 2.58 | 515,801.12 | 56,997.96 | 5,412.55 | 183.76 |
| Wilcox County | #1 (GHSA 4-A Public) | 9-3 | 48.26 | 63.29 | 2.54 | 484,198.88 | 50,571.06 | 4,086.28 | 243.72 |
| Turner County | #3 (GHSA 2-A Public) | 6-6 | 51.67 | 67.90 | 2.09 | 75,772.17 | 13,389.95 | 2,617.95 | 380.98 |
| Warren County | #2 (GHSA 7-A Public) | 9-3 | 44.62 | 67.32 | 2.08 | 71,842.32 | 4,020.72 | 410.52 | 2,434.96 |
Class A Private
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | #1 (GHSA 4-A Private) | 11-0 | 89.06 | 66.84 | 4.65 | 987,450.52 | 884,518.72 | 780,981.66 | 0.28 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | #1 (GHSA 8-A Private) | 10-1 | 72.63 | 75.17 | 3.41 | 863,286.89 | 470,190.01 | 78,952.70 | 11.67 |
| Calvary Day | #1 (GHSA 3-A Private) | 12-0 | 73.24 | 75.90 | 3.30 | 777,650.71 | 440,613.66 | 78,003.16 | 11.82 |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | #1 (GHSA 2-A Private) | 5-6 | 72.72 | 77.18 | 2.95 | 792,912.54 | 104,870.58 | 54,582.26 | 17.32 |
| Fellowship Christian | #1 (GHSA 6-A Private) | 11-1 | 62.86 | 78.23 | 2.29 | 222,349.29 | 65,224.76 | 4,338.80 | 229.48 |
| Holy Innocents | #1 (GHSA 5-A Private) | 11-1 | 61.59 | 79.31 | 2.22 | 207,087.46 | 9,106.26 | 2,095.23 | 476.27 |
| First Presbyterian | #1 (GHSA 1-A Private) | 10-2 | 57.36 | 78.11 | 2.16 | 136,713.11 | 23,971.57 | 898.29 | 1,112.23 |
| Darlington | #1 (GHSA 7-A Private) | 11-1 | 52.87 | 79.09 | 2.01 | 12,549.48 | 1,504.44 | 147.90 | 6,760.10 |
