Maxwell playoff projections heading into Quarterfinals
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2023 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
Class AAAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
ach team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colquitt County | #1 (1-AAAAAAA) | 12-0 | 97.79 | 90.29 | 3.80 | 825,727.57 | 619,525.33 | 351,346.67 | 1.85 | |
| Mill Creek | #1 (8-AAAAAAA) | 12-0 | 94.66 | 91.88 | 3.42 | 850,534.96 | 379,945.47 | 191,567.11 | 4.22 | |
| Walton | #1 (5-AAAAAAA) | 12-0 | 96.97 | 94.45 | 3.05 | 535,393.97 | 330,008.58 | 187,814.18 | 4.32 | |
| Carrollton | #1 (2-AAAAAAA) | 11-1 | 95.80 | 94.90 | 2.88 | 464,606.03 | 271,448.20 | 145,594.31 | 5.87 | |
| Buford | #2 (8-AAAAAAA) | 11-1 | 91.26 | 94.41 | 2.81 | 556,493.05 | 184,910.88 | 69,253.88 | 13.44 | |
| Grayson | #1 (4-AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 87.67 | 93.81 | 2.61 | 443,506.95 | 127,749.26 | 35,819.80 | 26.92 | |
| Milton | #1 (6-AAAAAAA) | 10-2 | 84.98 | 94.46 | 2.26 | 174,272.43 | 67,814.53 | 14,949.12 | 65.89 | |
| Camden County | #3 (1-AAAAAAA) | 9-3 | 82.07 | 96.46 | 2.17 | 149,465.04 | 18,597.75 | 3,654.92 | 272.60 |
Class AAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas County Central | #1 (1-AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 97.41 | 76.69 | 3.65 | 657,368.86 | 560,520.16 | 431,312.43 | 1.32 | |
| Rome | #1 (6-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 92.05 | 100.00 | 2.76 | 342,631.14 | 257,817.69 | 164,128.32 | 5.09 | |
| Douglas County | #1 (5-AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 89.58 | 80.83 | 3.19 | 643,825.59 | 396,092.73 | 154,258.45 | 5.48 | |
| Gainesville | #1 (8-AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 86.34 | 79.67 | 2.86 | 541,686.33 | 246,513.58 | 76,197.22 | 12.12 | |
| Marist | #1 (4-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 84.50 | 100.00 | 2.84 | 650,285.88 | 137,308.30 | 56,919.28 | 16.57 | |
| Woodward Academy | #1 (3-AAAAAA) | 10-2 | 84.96 | 83.03 | 2.70 | 458,313.67 | 190,129.81 | 52,833.36 | 17.93 | |
| Lee County | #2 (1-AAAAAA) | 10-2 | 86.43 | 100.00 | 2.58 | 356,174.41 | 167,263.88 | 52,058.40 | 18.21 | |
| Roswell | #1 (7-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 79.39 | 80.32 | 2.41 | 349,714.12 | 44,353.86 | 12,292.54 | 80.35 |
Class AAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee | #1 (1-AAAAA) | 12-0 | 90.65 | 76.69 | 4.26 | 940,953.28 | 743,286.82 | 576,992.86 | 0.73 | |
| Jefferson | #1 (8-AAAAA) | 12-0 | 81.99 | 79.67 | 3.54 | 841,598.99 | 518,434.56 | 175,500.35 | 4.70 | |
| Cartersville | #1 (7-AAAAA) | 12-0 | 80.14 | 80.32 | 3.33 | 961,087.06 | 243,585.58 | 121,936.73 | 7.20 | |
| Creekside | #1 (5-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 80.07 | 80.83 | 3.24 | 755,789.41 | 378,002.72 | 110,654.81 | 8.04 | |
| Warner Robins | #1 (2-AAAAA) | 9-3 | 70.77 | 83.01 | 2.32 | 244,210.59 | 64,206.05 | 8,178.90 | 121.27 | |
| Harris County | #1 (3-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 68.23 | 83.03 | 2.20 | 158,401.01 | 39,356.68 | 3,878.27 | 256.85 | |
| Cass | #4 (7-AAAAA) | 7-5 | 69.58 | 85.60 | 2.07 | 59,046.72 | 12,368.14 | 2,817.40 | 353.94 | |
| Jenkins | #4 (1-AAAAA) | 5-7 | 55.46 | 85.10 | 2.04 | 38,912.94 | 759.45 | 40.68 | 24,583.85 |
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedictine | #1 (3-AAAA) | 12-0 | 83.04 | 77.81 | 3.29 | 636,204.58 | 379,893.06 | 272,440.26 | 2.67 | |
| Perry | #2 (2-AAAA) | 10-2 | 78.68 | 73.42 | 3.72 | 838,191.15 | 613,145.79 | 264,368.02 | 2.78 | |
| Spalding | #1 (2-AAAA) | 12-0 | 81.68 | 77.45 | 3.27 | 684,064.78 | 348,383.33 | 238,622.45 | 3.19 | |
| North Oconee | #1 (8-AAAA) | 12-0 | 78.44 | 79.61 | 2.63 | 363,795.42 | 168,417.14 | 101,321.48 | 8.87 | |
| Stockbridge | #1 (5-AAAA) | 10-2 | 75.32 | 79.66 | 2.47 | 315,935.22 | 103,306.47 | 53,393.16 | 17.73 | |
| Central (Carrollton) | #1 (7-AAAA) | 12-0 | 70.09 | 75.15 | 2.89 | 614,297.33 | 224,615.50 | 48,121.57 | 19.78 | |
| Starr's Mill | #1 (4-AAAA) | 9-3 | 66.25 | 75.95 | 2.51 | 385,702.67 | 105,753.50 | 15,557.59 | 63.28 | |
| Stephenson | #1 (6-AAAA) | 10-2 | 63.42 | 76.31 | 2.22 | 161,808.85 | 56,485.21 | 6,175.47 | 160.93 |
Class AAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvary Day | #1 (3-AAA) | 12-0 | 89.12 | 68.40 | 4.54 | 987,637.27 | 806,331.01 | 744,768.15 | 0.34 | |
| Cedar Grove | #1 (5-AAA) | 7-5 | 78.52 | 78.78 | 2.96 | 686,247.03 | 154,704.40 | 120,008.30 | 7.33 | |
| Savannah Christian | #2 (3-AAA) | 10-2 | 71.93 | 75.24 | 3.18 | 629,788.63 | 477,805.35 | 74,763.33 | 12.38 | |
| Mary Persons | #1 (2-AAA) | 11-1 | 72.07 | 80.64 | 2.38 | 313,752.97 | 38,246.40 | 23,792.55 | 41.03 | |
| Lumpkin County | #1 (7-AAA) | 12-0 | 65.83 | 75.74 | 2.63 | 370,211.37 | 238,071.25 | 20,245.36 | 48.39 | |
| Carver (Columbus) | #1 (1-AAA) | 9-3 | 62.88 | 74.77 | 2.95 | 702,180.89 | 235,696.86 | 14,628.13 | 67.36 | |
| Monroe Area | #3 (8-AAA) | 8-4 | 57.54 | 76.59 | 2.35 | 297,819.11 | 48,426.54 | 1,660.21 | 601.33 | |
| Wesleyan | #2 (7-AAA) | 9-3 | 54.78 | 81.75 | 2.01 | 12,362.73 | 718.20 | 133.97 | 7,463.25 |
Class AA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierce County | #1 (3-AA) | 11-1 | 70.26 | 65.31 | 3.47 | 758,480.00 | 445,123.55 | 262,659.11 | 2.81 | |
| Callaway | #1 (5-AA) | 9-2 | 69.39 | 65.40 | 3.40 | 759,987.15 | 408,648.18 | 230,823.97 | 3.33 | |
| Toombs County | #2 (3-AA) | 11-1 | 69.42 | 68.06 | 2.95 | 493,839.89 | 301,754.21 | 157,718.88 | 5.34 | |
| Rockmart | #1 (7-AA) | 10-2 | 67.90 | 66.87 | 2.97 | 506,160.11 | 312,146.32 | 149,179.85 | 5.70 | |
| Cook | #1 (1-AA) | 10-2 | 65.90 | 65.68 | 3.14 | 698,773.84 | 309,281.57 | 129,876.11 | 6.70 | |
| Fellowship Christian | #1 (8-AA) | 10-2 | 60.84 | 68.32 | 2.35 | 241,520.00 | 78,593.51 | 25,069.11 | 38.89 | |
| Fitzgerald | #2 (1-AA) | 9-3 | 61.63 | 69.46 | 2.33 | 240,012.85 | 67,634.76 | 22,981.15 | 42.51 | |
| Columbia | #2 (5-AA) | 9-3 | 60.70 | 68.62 | 2.40 | 301,226.16 | 76,817.90 | 21,691.81 | 45.10 |
Class A Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Avenue Christian | #1 (5-A Division I) | 11-1 | 69.55 | 56.65 | 4.13 | 919,852.48 | 665,955.61 | 542,019.32 | 0.84 | |
| Commerce | #1 (8-A Division I) | 11-1 | 63.43 | 60.82 | 3.21 | 753,329.16 | 274,353.93 | 185,328.14 | 4.40 | |
| Brooks County | #1 (1-A Division I) | 7-5 | 57.49 | 60.24 | 2.90 | 525,331.71 | 301,782.54 | 76,016.38 | 12.16 | |
| Rabun County | #3 (8-A Division I) | 9-3 | 58.38 | 61.71 | 2.79 | 474,668.29 | 246,626.58 | 66,932.27 | 13.94 | |
| Elbert County | #2 (8-A Division I) | 10-2 | 57.03 | 60.55 | 2.91 | 572,370.46 | 269,482.06 | 65,279.17 | 14.32 | |
| Swainsboro | #3 (2-A Division I) | 10-2 | 56.36 | 61.87 | 2.65 | 427,629.54 | 182,108.82 | 41,606.08 | 23.03 | |
| Bryan County | #1 (3-A Division I) | 11-1 | 54.24 | 63.52 | 2.31 | 246,670.84 | 43,247.46 | 17,549.76 | 55.98 | |
| Irwin County | #2 (1-A Division I) | 7-5 | 51.18 | 64.90 | 2.10 | 80,147.52 | 16,442.99 | 5,268.89 | 188.79 |
Class A Division II
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schley County | #1 (6-A Division II) | 11-0 | 67.24 | 53.13 | 4.25 | 929,129.83 | 737,540.28 | 583,280.64 | 0.71 | |
| Bowdon | #1 (7-A Division II) | 10-2 | 57.78 | 57.97 | 3.13 | 785,281.20 | 220,533.48 | 121,424.58 | 7.24 | |
| Manchester | #2 (6-A Division II) | 9-2 | 58.22 | 58.70 | 2.95 | 490,873.96 | 347,637.88 | 115,336.80 | 7.67 | |
| Clinch County | #1 (2-A Division II) | 11-1 | 56.80 | 57.89 | 2.96 | 509,126.04 | 348,682.42 | 103,942.02 | 8.62 | |
| Macon County | #3 (6-A Division II) | 10-2 | 54.25 | 58.65 | 2.93 | 645,425.46 | 228,302.13 | 55,530.17 | 17.01 | |
| Telfair County | #2 (4-A Division II) | 9-2 | 47.59 | 58.99 | 2.44 | 354,574.54 | 75,377.58 | 10,092.93 | 98.08 | |
| Dooly County | #1 (4-A Division II) | 8-4 | 47.11 | 60.45 | 2.24 | 214,718.80 | 24,014.16 | 6,189.99 | 160.55 | |
| Early County | #1 (1-A Division II) | 8-4 | 46.05 | 60.62 | 2.09 | 70,870.17 | 17,912.09 | 4,202.87 | 236.93 |
