High School Sports Blog

Maxwell 2024 preseason summary

Grayson running back Jayvian Allen (16, left) celebrates a rushing touchdown with wide receiver Jamal Haynes in the first half of the Class 7A state high school football final against Collins Hill Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020, at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/For the AJC)
Grayson running back Jayvian Allen (16, left) celebrates a rushing touchdown with wide receiver Jamal Haynes in the first half of the Class 7A state high school football final against Collins Hill Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020, at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/For the AJC)
By Loren Maxwell
Aug 12, 2024

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the 461 teams of the Georgia High School Association (GHSA), the Georgia Independent Athletic Association (GIAA), and the Georgia Association of Private & Parochial Schools (GAPPS) throughout the 2024 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

A hypothetical score at a neutral location can be calculated between two teams by adding their offensive and defensive ratings. To account for home advantage, adjust the hypothetical scores in favor of the home team by half of the home advantage.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of ---- of ---- total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game scores within --.-- points and all game margins within --.-- points.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.64

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Colquitt County0-0100.151Milton0-098.65
2Mill Creek0-097.592Rome0-092.24
3Buford0-097.563Lee County0-092.17
4Carrollton0-096.194Hughes0-091.04
5Walton0-095.845Woodward Academy0-090.08
6Grayson0-093.966Coffee0-089.45
7North Cobb0-089.817Roswell0-088.88
8Westlake0-089.508Thomas County Central0-087.99
9Valdosta0-088.419Gainesville0-087.01
10Camden County0-086.8010Houston County0-084.37
11North Gwinnett0-086.6211Northside (Warner Robins)0-077.77
12Parkview0-086.3312Brunswick0-074.95
13Norcross0-084.8013Creekview0-074.75
14Newton0-083.6614Dutchtown0-074.37
15Collins Hill0-083.6415Sequoyah0-073.64



AAAA AAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Marist0-090.721Cedar Grove0-091.15
2Benedictine0-089.602Bainbridge0-084.94
3Ware County0-087.843Jefferson0-084.15
4Cartersville0-087.814Calhoun0-080.60
5Creekside0-086.135Calvary Day0-080.41
6Warner Robins0-083.926Troup0-075.98
7Perry0-083.157Sandy Creek0-075.66
8North Oconee0-082.248Oconee County0-073.83
9Blessed Trinity0-080.489LaGrange0-073.34
10Cedartown0-079.4010Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)0-072.90
11Stockbridge0-079.3411Spalding0-072.51
12Jones County0-076.7612Cairo0-072.42
13Starr's Mill0-075.1713Monroe Area0-071.78
14Kell0-073.9214Peach County0-071.67
15Dalton0-073.7415Stephenson0-070.71



AA A Divison I
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Prince Avenue Christian0-083.221Fitzgerald0-077.28
2Pierce County0-080.762Savannah Christian0-074.60
3Appling County0-077.903Thomasville0-073.39
4Rockmart0-077.464Swainsboro0-073.08
5Burke County0-075.505Rabun County0-072.60
6Thomson0-075.036Fellowship Christian0-072.30
7Carver (Columbus)0-074.597Northeast0-067.43
8Callaway0-073.078Dublin0-067.23
9Stephens County0-073.049Bleckley County0-067.23
10Holy Innocents0-071.2310Toombs County0-066.38
11Carver (Atlanta)0-070.9111Athens Academy0-066.22
12Crisp County0-070.1812Elbert County0-064.82
13Cook0-069.6113Commerce0-064.45
14Hapeville Charter0-068.2414Wesleyan0-063.37
15Hebron Christian0-067.2515Lamar County0-062.48



A Division II Smaller Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Brooks County0-074.011Prince Avenue Christian0-083.22
2Irwin County0-072.152Calvary Day0-080.41
3Bowdon0-068.573Savannah Christian0-074.60
4Schley County0-068.304Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)0-072.90
5Clinch County0-064.855Fellowship Christian0-072.30
6Metter0-064.686Holy Innocents0-071.23
7Manchester0-062.997Greater Atlanta Christian0-067.32
8Early County0-061.108Hebron Christian0-067.25
9Trion0-060.809Athens Academy0-066.22
10Macon County0-058.9910Lovett0-064.25
11Lincoln County0-057.9711Wesleyan0-063.37
12Wilcox County0-057.4212North Cobb Christian0-059.66
13Telfair County0-056.8013Darlington0-058.29
14Dooly County0-056.3614Whitefield Academy0-058.24
15Pelham0-055.2915Mount Vernon0-057.90



GIAA AAAA-AAA GIAA AA-A
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1John Milledge Academy0-067.491Gatewood School0-043.00
2First Presbyterian0-057.502Central Fellowship Christian0-042.62
3St. Anne-Pacelli0-056.863Brentwood School0-042.53
4Tattnall Square0-055.534Edmund Burke Academy0-040.38
5Valwood School0-054.825Briarwood Academy0-039.60



GAPPS
Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cherokee Christian0-033.25
2Skipstone Academy0-027.87
3Lanier Christian0-020.71
4Creekside Christian0-012.79



All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating Sch Str Rank Offense Defense
1 [1]Colquitt County1-AAAAAA0-0100.1535.72-8.87
2 [1]Milton7-AAAAA0-098.6533.20-9.89
3 [2]Mill Creek8-AAAAAA0-097.5932.85-9.18
4 [3]Buford8-AAAAAA0-097.5631.19-10.82
5 [4]Carrollton2-AAAAAA0-096.1933.50-7.13
6 [5]Walton5-AAAAAA0-095.8433.12-7.16
7 [6]Grayson4-AAAAAA0-093.9630.16-8.24
8 [2]Rome5-AAAAA0-092.2428.36-8.33
9 [3]Lee County2-AAAAA0-092.1730.73-5.88
10 [1]Cedar Grove5-AAA0-091.1530.41-5.18
11 [4]Hughes3-AAAAA0-091.0430.39-5.10
12 [1]Marist5-AAAA0-090.7227.97-7.20
13 [5]Woodward Academy4-AAAAA0-090.0827.45-7.07
14 [7]North Cobb5-AAAAAA0-089.8129.36-4.90
15 [2]Benedictine1-AAAA0-089.6029.44-4.61
16 [8]Westlake2-AAAAAA0-089.5027.97-5.98
17 [6]Coffee2-AAAAA0-089.4528.08-5.82
18 [7]Roswell7-AAAAA0-088.8829.36-3.96
19 [9]Valdosta1-AAAAAA0-088.4126.78-6.07
20 [8]Thomas County Central2-AAAAA0-087.9928.53-3.90
21 [3]Ware County1-AAAA0-087.8427.06-5.22
22 [4]Cartersville7-AAAA0-087.8126.59-5.66
23 [9]Gainesville7-AAAAA0-087.0127.60-3.86
24 [10]Camden County1-AAAAAA0-086.8027.05-4.19
25 [11]North Gwinnett7-AAAAAA0-086.6227.26-3.81
26 [12]Parkview7-AAAAAA0-086.3327.61-3.17
27 [5]Creekside4-AAAA0-086.1327.10-3.48
28 [2]Bainbridge1-AAA0-084.9425.64-3.74
29 [13]Norcross7-AAAAAA0-084.8026.37-2.88
30 [10]Houston County2-AAAAA0-084.3726.68-2.14
31 [3]Jefferson8-AAA0-084.1524.50-4.10
32 [6]Warner Robins1-AAAA0-083.9225.01-3.36
33 [14]Newton4-AAAAAA0-083.6624.38-3.73
34 [15]Collins Hill8-AAAAAA0-083.6423.46-4.62
35 [16]Douglas County2-AAAAAA0-083.2925.60-2.13
36 [1]Prince Avenue Christian8-AA #0-083.2228.430.76
37 [7]Perry1-AAAA0-083.1525.19-2.40
38 [8]North Oconee8-AAAA0-082.2424.71-1.97
39 [17]McEachern3-AAAAAA0-081.3923.08-2.76
40 [2]Pierce County3-AA0-080.7624.04-1.16
41 [4]Calhoun7-AAA0-080.6024.15-0.89
42 [9]Blessed Trinity6-AAAA0-080.4821.77-3.16
43 [5]Calvary Day3-AAA #0-080.4124.41-0.44
44 [18]North Paulding5-AAAAAA0-080.1524.52-0.07
45 [19]Marietta5-AAAAAA0-079.8623.02-1.28
46 [20]Archer4-AAAAAA0-079.6021.86-2.19
47 [21]Brookwood7-AAAAAA0-079.4624.260.35
48 [10]Cedartown7-AAAA0-079.4021.49-2.36
49 [11]Stockbridge2-AAAA0-079.3423.55-0.24
50 [22]East Coweta2-AAAAAA0-079.3023.58-0.17
51 [23]Lambert6-AAAAAA0-078.2123.200.55
52 [24]Lowndes1-AAAAAA0-077.9324.882.51
53 [3]Appling County3-AA0-077.9020.96-1.38
54 [25]West Forsyth6-AAAAAA0-077.8520.40-1.90
55 [11]Northside (Warner Robins)2-AAAAA0-077.7720.95-1.27
56 [4]Rockmart7-AA0-077.4623.051.14
57 [1]Fitzgerald1-A Division I0-077.2820.67-1.05
58 [12]Jones County2-AAAA0-076.7624.002.80
59 [26]Richmond Hill1-AAAAAA0-076.2620.07-0.63
60 [6]Troup2-AAA0-075.9821.050.62
61 [27]Harrison3-AAAAAA0-075.8320.270.00
62 [7]Sandy Creek2-AAA0-075.6621.131.02
63 [5]Burke County4-AA0-075.5021.551.60
64 [13]Starr's Mill3-AAAA0-075.1719.09-0.52
65 [6]Thomson4-AA0-075.0320.731.25
66 [12]Brunswick1-AAAAA0-074.9521.231.83
67 [13]Creekview6-AAAAA0-074.7519.940.75
68 [2]Savannah Christian3-A Division I #0-074.6021.792.75
69 [7]Carver (Columbus)1-AA0-074.5919.230.20
70 [14]Dutchtown3-AAAAA0-074.3719.440.62
71 [28]South Gwinnett4-AAAAAA0-074.3619.710.90
72 [29]North Atlanta6-AAAAAA0-074.2020.932.28
73 [1]Brooks County2-A Division II0-074.0119.180.72
74 [14]Kell6-AAAA0-073.9221.172.80
75 [8]Oconee County8-AAA0-073.8319.461.19
76 [15]Dalton7-AAAA0-073.7421.363.18
77 [15]Sequoyah6-AAAAA0-073.6418.970.89
78 [3]Thomasville1-A Division I0-073.3920.412.57
79 [9]LaGrange2-AAA0-073.3419.651.86
80 [30]Mountain View8-AAAAAA0-073.2919.421.69
81 [4]Swainsboro3-A Division I0-073.0818.671.15
82 [8]Callaway2-AA0-073.0719.882.36
83 [9]Stephens County8-AA0-073.0419.191.70
84 [16]Wayne County1-AAAA0-072.9718.491.07
85 [10]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)2-AAA #0-072.9020.042.69
86 [5]Rabun County8-A Division I0-072.6019.732.69
87 [11]Spalding2-AAA0-072.5120.353.39
88 [31]Peachtree Ridge7-AAAAAA0-072.4819.182.26
89 [12]Cairo1-AAA0-072.4218.781.92
90 [6]Fellowship Christian5-A Division I #0-072.3020.253.50
91 [2]Irwin County2-A Division II0-072.1518.541.94
92 [32]Denmark6-AAAAAA0-071.9517.711.31
93 [13]Monroe Area8-AAA0-071.7817.971.74
94 [17]Mays4-AAAA0-071.7319.363.18
95 [14]Peach County1-AAA0-071.6719.263.14
96 [10]Holy Innocents5-AA #0-071.2317.892.22
97 [18]Eastside8-AAAA0-071.1218.092.53
98 [33]North Forsyth6-AAAAAA0-071.0818.733.20
99 [11]Carver (Atlanta)5-AA0-070.9117.301.95
100 [19]Cass7-AAAA0-070.9018.022.67
101 [34]Alpharetta6-AAAAAA0-070.8519.233.94
102 [15]Stephenson5-AAA0-070.7118.763.61
103 [20]Westminster (Atlanta)6-AAAA0-070.5817.022.00
104 [16]Mary Persons2-AAA0-070.5118.033.07
105 [16]Lanier7-AAAAA0-070.4518.453.55
106 [21]Central (Carrollton)3-AAAA0-070.3720.085.26
107 [12]Crisp County3-AA0-070.1817.512.89
108 [35]South Forsyth6-AAAAAA0-069.9017.913.56
109 [22]New Hampstead1-AAAA0-069.7921.016.77
110 [23]Allatoona7-AAAA0-069.7217.483.31
111 [13]Cook3-AA0-069.6118.544.48
112 [17]South Paulding5-AAAAA0-069.5717.393.38
113 [24]Cambridge6-AAAA0-069.5617.603.60
114 [18]Lovejoy3-AAAAA0-068.8517.133.83
115 [19]Clarke Central8-AAAAA0-068.7817.874.64
116 [25]Hiram7-AAAA0-068.7621.147.94
117 [20]Glynn Academy1-AAAAA0-068.6616.573.46
118 [21]River Ridge6-AAAAA0-068.5918.865.82
119 [3]Bowdon7-A Division II0-068.5719.406.39
120 [26]Ola2-AAAA0-068.5117.744.78
121 [27]St. Pius X5-AAAA0-068.4315.302.43
122 [4]Schley County6-A Division II0-068.3017.674.93
123 [14]Hapeville Charter5-AA0-068.2416.363.67
124 [36]Hillgrove3-AAAAAA0-068.1215.412.85
125 [28]Flowery Branch8-AAAA0-067.5517.845.85
126 [1]John Milledge AcademyGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-067.4916.454.51
127 [7]Northeast2-A Division I0-067.4317.325.44
128 [17]Greater Atlanta Christian6-AAA #0-067.3216.704.93
129 [22]Effingham County1-AAAAA0-067.2616.805.09
130 [15]Hebron Christian8-AA #0-067.2517.365.66
131 [8]Dublin2-A Division I0-067.2317.225.54
132 [9]Bleckley County2-A Division I0-067.2316.765.09
133 [37]Dacula8-AAAAAA0-067.1915.193.56
134 [38]Wheeler5-AAAAAA0-067.1916.765.12
135 [39]Cherokee5-AAAAAA0-067.1817.245.61
136 [40]Pebblebrook3-AAAAAA0-066.6116.815.75
137 [23]East Paulding5-AAAAA0-066.5316.915.93
138 [18]Whitewater2-AAA0-066.4916.735.80
139 [10]Toombs County3-A Division I0-066.3816.695.87
140 [11]Athens Academy8-A Division I #0-066.2217.196.52
141 [19]Baldwin4-AAA0-066.1415.484.90
142 [41]Tift County1-AAAAAA0-065.7715.595.37
143 [16]Morgan County2-AA0-065.7516.406.20
144 [29]Harris County3-AAAA0-065.5615.695.69
145 [24]Sprayberry6-AAAAA0-065.3116.807.04
146 [25]Veterans2-AAAAA0-064.8715.326.00
147 [5]Clinch County2-A Division II0-064.8516.216.91
148 [12]Elbert County8-A Division I0-064.8216.737.47
149 [17]Hart County8-AA0-064.8114.715.46
150 [6]Metter3-A Division II0-064.6813.554.42
151 [13]Commerce8-A Division I0-064.4515.386.48
152 [30]Jonesboro3-AAAA0-064.3715.987.16
153 [18]Lovett5-AA #0-064.2514.235.54
154 [26]Northgate3-AAAAA0-064.1415.206.61
155 [27]Loganville8-AAAAA0-063.6415.857.77
156 [20]Upson-Lee2-AAA0-063.3714.887.06
157 [14]Wesleyan5-A Division I #0-063.3714.166.35
158 [31]Pace Academy4-AAAA0-063.3014.626.87
159 [28]Newnan3-AAAAA0-063.2315.157.48
160 [32]Eagle's Landing Christian2-AAAA0-063.1015.578.02
161 [7]Manchester7-A Division II0-062.9913.185.75
162 [29]Kennesaw Mountain5-AAAAA0-062.9515.247.84
163 [19]Columbia6-AA0-062.8713.686.36
164 [21]Jenkins3-AAA0-062.8214.136.86
165 [30]Statesboro1-AAAAA0-062.6713.976.85
166 [33]Mundy's Mill3-AAAA0-062.5713.646.63
167 [15]Lamar County4-A Division I0-062.4814.017.09
168 [22]Adairsville7-AAA0-062.4515.949.05
169 [20]Westside (Macon)2-AA0-062.3915.008.17
170 [34]Northside (Columbus)3-AAAA0-061.5614.278.26
171 [42]Etowah5-AAAAAA0-061.4813.057.13
172 [35]Tucker5-AAAA0-061.4715.519.59
173 [23]Dougherty1-AAA0-061.2413.547.85
174 [8]Early County1-A Division II0-061.1013.898.35
175 [9]Trion7-A Division II0-060.8015.079.82
176 [31]Villa Rica5-AAAAA0-060.7013.358.21
177 [21]Miller Grove6-AA0-060.6513.988.89
178 [32]Evans1-AAAAA0-060.5713.007.99
179 [24]Heritage (Ringgold)7-AAA0-060.4913.868.92
180 [33]Shiloh4-AAAAA0-060.4013.238.38
181 [36]Maynard Jackson4-AAAA0-060.2813.258.53
182 [25]Harlem4-AAA0-060.2613.648.94
183 [43]Paulding County3-AAAAAA0-060.2013.008.35
184 [22]Union County7-AA0-060.2013.608.96
185 [26]Lumpkin County6-AAA0-060.1414.7910.20
186 [27]Dawson County6-AAA0-059.9812.197.77
187 [28]Howard4-AAA0-059.7312.698.51
188 [29]Monroe1-AAA0-059.6812.228.09
189 [23]North Cobb Christian7-AA #0-059.6611.046.93
190 [34]Habersham Central8-AAAAA0-059.6613.098.99
191 [30]Northwest Whitfield7-AAA0-059.5813.459.42
192 [24]Laney4-AA0-059.5711.427.40
193 [44]Chapel Hill2-AAAAAA0-059.5411.897.91
194 [25]North Murray7-AA0-059.2515.1411.44
195 [16]Putnam County4-A Division I0-059.2212.658.99
196 [45]Osborne3-AAAAAA0-059.1211.087.51
197 [37]Madison County8-AAAA0-059.0214.9611.49
198 [10]Macon County6-A Division II0-058.9913.149.71
199 [35]Decatur4-AAAAA0-058.8013.2610.01
200 [46]Campbell3-AAAAAA0-058.7711.818.59
201 [17]Fannin County7-A Division I0-058.7213.159.98
202 [18]Bremen6-A Division I0-058.7211.248.07
203 [36]Arabia Mountain4-AAAAA0-058.629.636.56
204 [19]Worth County1-A Division I0-058.3715.2712.46
205 [20]Darlington6-A Division I #0-058.2912.319.57
206 [37]Lithia Springs5-AAAAA0-058.2412.459.77
207 [21]Whitefield Academy5-A Division I #0-058.2411.508.82
208 [38]Griffin3-AAAA0-058.1312.239.66
209 [11]Lincoln County8-A Division II0-057.9711.989.57
210 [47]Central Gwinnett8-AAAAAA0-057.9411.378.98
211 [22]Mount Vernon5-A Division I #0-057.9013.8211.47
212 [38]Jackson County8-AAAAA0-057.8812.319.99
213 [39]Southwest DeKalb5-AAAA0-057.8711.959.63
214 [31]White County6-AAA0-057.7813.9011.68
215 [39]Alexander5-AAAAA0-057.7811.469.23
216 [23]Jeff Davis1-A Division I0-057.7310.488.30
217 [32]North Hall6-AAA0-057.7112.5710.42
218 [24]Dodge County2-A Division I0-057.5810.358.33
219 [25]Savannah Country Day3-A Division I #0-057.5511.339.33
220 [2]First PresbyterianGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-057.5012.9511.01
221 [48]Duluth7-AAAAAA0-057.4512.1310.24
222 [12]Wilcox County4-A Division II0-057.4213.1911.32
223 [26]Sonoraville7-AA0-057.2812.5710.85
224 [40]Pope6-AAAAA0-057.2312.8211.15
225 [41]Winder-Barrow8-AAAAA0-057.1911.549.90
226 [27]South Atlanta6-AA0-057.1811.9310.31
227 [33]Douglass5-AAA0-057.1410.198.61
228 [49]Meadowcreek7-AAAAAA0-057.1213.4411.88
229 [34]Southeast Bulloch3-AAA0-057.1110.619.06
230 [26]Washington County2-A Division I0-057.0713.5512.03
231 [40]Centennial6-AAAA0-056.9511.4210.02
232 [3]St. Anne-PacelliGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-056.869.678.37
233 [13]Telfair County4-A Division II0-056.8011.4410.20
234 [28]Ringgold7-AA0-056.7310.509.33
235 [35]Aquinas4-AAA #0-056.7212.3711.20
236 [42]Banneker3-AAAAA0-056.5810.469.43
237 [43]Dunwoody4-AAAAA0-056.5210.849.88
238 [14]Dooly County4-A Division II0-056.3611.1010.30
239 [29]Sumter County1-AA0-055.9310.8210.45
240 [44]South Effingham1-AAAAA0-055.7710.6910.47
241 [27]Model6-A Division I0-055.649.249.16
242 [36]Long County3-AAA0-055.6112.3112.26
243 [45]New Manchester5-AAAAA0-055.589.739.70
244 [28]Vidalia3-A Division I0-055.5810.5510.53
245 [4]Tattnall SquareGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-055.5312.2912.32
246 [37]Cherokee Bluff8-AAA0-055.449.619.73
247 [38]Westover1-AAA0-055.4210.9611.09
248 [15]Pelham1-A Division II0-055.2911.5911.86
249 [46]McIntosh3-AAAAA0-055.2811.0011.27
250 [39]Luella5-AAA0-055.199.219.57
251 [40]West Laurens4-AAA0-054.9710.6111.20
252 [47]Riverwood6-AAAAA0-054.9011.4612.12
253 [16]Emanuel County Institute3-A Division II0-054.8310.7311.46
254 [5]Valwood SchoolGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-054.8213.1413.88
255 [17]Johnson County5-A Division II0-054.799.7810.55
256 [41]Hephzibah4-AAA0-054.7611.1511.94
257 [41]Hampton2-AAAA0-054.7610.2511.05
258 [42]Union Grove2-AAAA0-054.749.119.92
259 [30]Jackson2-AA0-054.5710.7711.75
260 [6]BrookstoneGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-054.5010.5811.64
261 [18]Bryan County3-A Division II0-054.319.6010.84
262 [43]Cedar Shoals8-AAAA0-054.0210.1111.65
263 [48]Alcovy8-AAAAA0-054.0110.0611.61
264 [44]Eagle's Landing2-AAAA0-053.9611.1712.76
265 [19]Jenkins County3-A Division II0-053.8510.1311.84
266 [20]Charlton County2-A Division II0-053.639.6211.54
267 [49]Lakeside (Evans)1-AAAAA0-053.549.2411.25
268 [50]Forsyth Central6-AAAAAA0-053.479.4811.56
269 [50]Johns Creek7-AAAAA0-053.369.0811.28
270 [42]Liberty County3-AAA0-053.349.7611.98
271 [21]Washington-Wilkes8-A Division II0-053.1410.7613.18
272 [22]Greene County8-A Division II0-053.088.3110.78
273 [29]Providence Christian8-A Division I #0-053.0411.9414.46
274 [43]Gilmer7-AAA0-052.8710.5313.22
275 [30]Heard County6-A Division I0-052.8010.0012.75
276 [31]Spencer1-AA0-052.619.0812.03
277 [23]McIntosh County Academy3-A Division II0-052.497.3010.36
278 [45]McDonough2-AAAA0-052.309.8613.12
279 [31]Haralson County6-A Division I0-052.038.5112.03
280 [24]Lanier County2-A Division II0-051.998.9712.54
281 [7]Stratford AcademyGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-051.838.4112.14
282 [44]Pickens6-AAA0-051.679.7613.65
283 [32]East Jackson8-AA0-051.629.3713.31
284 [32]Berrien1-A Division I0-051.589.8313.81
285 [33]Pepperell6-A Division I0-051.528.4312.46
286 [51]Bradwell Institute1-AAAAA0-051.4710.6214.70
287 [52]Woodstock6-AAAAA0-051.258.5012.80
288 [53]Chamblee4-AAAAA0-051.189.8014.17
289 [46]Walnut Grove8-AAAA0-051.026.6011.13
290 [34]Christian Heritage7-A Division I #0-050.298.3913.66
291 [25]Turner County2-A Division II0-050.249.1714.49
292 [54]Lassiter6-AAAAA0-050.038.0313.56
293 [35]Social Circle4-A Division I0-049.976.9512.54
294 [55]Chattahoochee7-AAAAA0-049.7810.2215.99
295 [47]Woodland (Cartersville)7-AAAA0-049.717.6313.47
296 [51]Grovetown4-AAAAAA0-049.668.7714.67
297 [36]Dade County7-A Division I0-049.647.7713.68
298 [56]Greenbrier1-AAAAA0-049.366.4112.61
299 [48]East Forsyth8-AAAA0-049.207.7014.05
300 [45]Riverdale5-AAA0-049.158.4114.81
301 [37]St. Francis5-A Division I #0-049.107.9714.43
302 [49]Woodland (Stockbridge)2-AAAA0-048.976.0412.63
303 [52]Heritage (Conyers)4-AAAAAA0-048.978.4815.06
304 [33]Coahulla Creek7-AA0-048.777.4614.24
305 [38]ACE Charter2-A Division I0-048.769.4216.22
306 [39]Temple6-A Division I0-048.718.1514.99
307 [40]Mount Pisgah Christian5-A Division I #0-048.628.0915.03
308 [34]Tattnall County3-AA0-047.475.2513.33
309 [26]Portal3-A Division II0-047.236.2214.55
310 [8]Pinewood ChristianGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-047.088.7717.25
311 [9]Bulloch AcademyGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-047.046.6015.11
312 [41]Banks County8-A Division I0-046.955.7014.30
313 [35]Washington5-AA0-046.724.4213.25
314 [27]Screven County3-A Division II0-046.725.2214.06
315 [10]Frederica AcademyGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-046.656.9215.83
316 [42]Bacon County1-A Division I0-046.645.7414.66
317 [57]Morrow3-AAAAA0-046.334.9814.20
318 [50]Drew4-AAAA0-046.254.7214.02
319 [43]Gordon Lee7-A Division I0-046.076.0315.51
320 [58]Apalachee8-AAAAA0-046.036.1715.69
321 [36]Hardaway1-AA0-045.965.0714.67
322 [44]Southwest2-A Division I0-045.717.2517.09
323 [28]Mitchell County1-A Division II0-045.555.2015.21
324 [37]Therrell5-AA0-045.545.0315.05
325 [46]Fayette County2-AAA0-045.404.6014.75
326 [45]Jefferson County2-A Division I0-045.267.4317.72
327 [11]Brookwood SchoolGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-045.238.6919.01
328 [46]Brantley County1-A Division I0-045.194.6615.03
329 [47]Westside (Augusta)4-AAA0-045.072.9413.42
330 [12]George Walton AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-044.944.6815.30
331 [48]LaFayette7-AAA0-044.835.3516.08
332 [29]Wheeler County4-A Division II0-044.774.9715.76
333 [47]Jasper County4-A Division I0-044.705.1516.01
334 [49]Richmond Academy4-AAA0-044.473.2514.33
335 [30]Seminole County1-A Division II0-044.233.0014.32
336 [59]Tri-Cities4-AAAAA0-044.063.7215.21
337 [38]Shaw1-AA0-043.943.7715.39
338 [50]Johnson (Savannah)3-AAA0-043.784.0015.78
339 [51]M.L. King4-AAAA0-043.753.9515.76
340 [13]Westfield SchoolGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-043.546.6518.66
341 [14]Bethlehem Christian AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-043.134.5716.99
342 [31]Hawkinsville4-A Division II0-043.074.9817.46
343 [48]Mount Paran Christian5-A Division I #0-043.024.7417.28
344 [1]Gatewood SchoolGIAA District 4-AA-A0-043.004.7617.32
345 [53]Discovery8-AAAAAA0-042.933.2915.91
346 [49]Oglethorpe County8-A Division I0-042.914.1516.80
347 [32]Miller County1-A Division II0-042.872.5415.23
348 [54]South Cobb3-AAAAAA0-042.755.3818.19
349 [2]Central Fellowship ChristianGIAA District 1-AA-A0-042.624.9117.84
350 [3]Brentwood SchoolGIAA District 4-AA-A0-042.535.4418.47
351 [33]Terrell County1-A Division II0-042.523.5316.57
352 [39]Redan6-AA0-042.143.6217.04
353 [52]Locust Grove2-AAAA0-042.123.8717.30
354 [50]East Laurens2-A Division I0-042.025.4418.97
355 [34]Mount Zion (Carroll)7-A Division II0-041.994.8518.41
356 [35]Warren County8-A Division II0-041.443.3017.41
357 [51]Windsor Forest3-AAA0-041.442.4116.53
358 [40]Columbus1-AA0-040.975.6020.18
359 [41]Rutland2-AA0-040.883.8918.56
360 [53]North Springs5-AAAA0-040.522.6917.73
361 [15]Terrell AcademyGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-040.523.4518.49
362 [36]Treutlen4-A Division II0-040.462.6617.75
363 [52]Chestatee6-AAA0-040.384.5619.73
364 [4]Edmund Burke AcademyGIAA District 4-AA-A0-040.381.3916.56
365 [37]Marion County6-A Division II0-040.032.5918.12
366 [38]Taylor County6-A Division II0-039.951.6817.28
367 [16]Deerfield-WindsorGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-039.873.1318.81
368 [39]Chattahoochee County6-A Division II0-039.783.0818.85
369 [5]Briarwood AcademyGIAA District 4-AA-A0-039.601.7417.69
370 [60]Lakeside (Atlanta)4-AAAAA0-039.310.9617.20
371 [42]Pike County2-AA0-039.103.1419.60
372 [40]Wilkinson County5-A Division II0-039.090.7017.16
373 [17]Tiftarea AcademyGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-039.004.2920.85
374 [54]Lithonia5-AAAA0-038.961.9918.59
375 [55]Druid Hills5-AAAA0-038.951.6718.27
376 [53]North Clayton5-AAA0-038.773.3120.10
377 [54]Islands3-AAA0-038.690.8417.70
378 [18]Strong Rock ChristianGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-038.671.7018.58
379 [41]Montgomery County4-A Division II0-038.574.1621.14
380 [43]Franklin County8-AA0-038.102.2019.65
381 [44]Lakeview Ft. Oglethorpe7-AA0-038.033.2020.73
382 [51]Chattooga7-A Division I0-037.821.8519.58
383 [42]Atkinson County2-A Division II †0-037.753.2421.04
384 [55]Berkmar7-AAAAAA0-037.670.6818.56
385 [56]Midtown4-AAAA0-037.090.6919.15
386 [6]Southland AcademyGIAA District 3-AA-A0-036.900.0418.70
387 [52]Central (Macon)2-A Division I0-036.640.3519.26
388 [53]Armuchee7-A Division I0-036.580.6119.59
389 [19]Mount de SalesGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-036.571.5820.57
390 [55]Ridgeland7-AAA0-036.410.0219.17
391 [56]West Hall8-AAA0-036.390.6419.80
392 [7]Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA District 3-AA-A0-036.132.2421.66
393 [8]Flint River AcademyGIAA District 1-AA-A0-036.12-1.9117.52
394 [45]Salem6-AA0-035.96-0.2419.35
395 [57]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)5-AAA0-035.70-0.3219.53
396 [58]East Hall8-AAA0-035.582.2322.20
397 [43]Greenville7-A Division II0-035.541.6721.68
398 [44]Claxton3-A Division II0-035.470.3420.43
399 [45]Hancock Central5-A Division II0-035.46-0.1020.00
400 [61]Seckinger7-AAAAA0-035.170.6020.98
401 [59]Beach3-AAA0-035.050.4120.92
402 [54]McNair4-A Division I0-034.870.2720.96
403 [9]Southwest Georgia AcademyGIAA District 3-AA-A0-034.821.6022.33
404 [56]Rockdale County4-AAAAAA0-034.130.1021.53
405 [10]Thomas JeffersonGIAA District 4-AA-A0-033.96-0.2021.40
406 [55]B.E.S.T. Academy5-A Division I0-033.92-1.9119.72
407 [46]Randolph-Clay1-A Division II0-033.81-1.5920.15
408 [46]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate5-AA0-033.43-1.8920.24
409 [1]Cherokee ChristianGAPPS Region 1-AA0-033.25-1.3320.97
410 [47]Georgia Military Prep5-A Division II0-033.22-0.5421.79
411 [11]Heritage (Newnan)GIAA District 1-AA-A0-033.17-0.6121.77
412 [47]Butler4-AA0-032.88-0.9721.71
413 [56]Landmark Christian5-A Division I #0-032.77-0.2222.56
414 [20]Athens ChristianGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-032.762.4425.24
415 [57]Northview5-AAAA0-032.47-1.3421.74
416 [60]Stone Mountain5-AAA †0-032.41-1.0622.08
417 [21]St. Andrew's SchoolGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-032.21-0.6722.68
418 [48]Murray County7-AA0-031.670.0823.97
419 [57]Coosa7-A Division I0-031.49-1.6422.42
420 [58]Southeast Whitfield7-AAAA †0-031.34-0.8123.40
421 [59]Forest Park4-AAAA0-030.55-2.3722.63
422 [58]King's Ridge Christian5-A Division I #0-030.25-2.6722.63
423 [22]Piedmont AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-029.69-1.7524.12
424 [61]Cross Creek4-AAA0-029.64-3.1822.73
425 [59]Towers4-A Division I0-029.41-3.4722.67
426 [23]Lakeview AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-028.44-2.4724.64
427 [48]Crawford County6-A Division II0-027.940.4828.09
428 [2]Skipstone AcademyGAPPS Region 1-AA0-027.87-2.8224.87
429 [49]Lake Oconee Academy8-A Division II0-027.61-4.6523.29
430 [62]Johnson (Gainesville)6-AAA0-027.27-4.1524.13
431 [50]Glascock County5-A Division II0-026.86-1.4227.28
432 [24]Calvary ChristianGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-026.80-3.4525.31
433 [51]Towns County8-A Division II †0-026.48-2.8526.22
434 [49]Kendrick1-AA0-026.10-5.3424.11
435 [25]King's AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-025.84-4.5925.12
436 [12]Augusta PrepGIAA District 4-AA-A0-024.98-3.9526.62
437 [60]Gordon Central7-A Division I0-024.15-3.9227.48
438 [50]Josey4-AA0-023.41-4.8227.33
439 [26]Loganville ChristianGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-022.14-6.0527.37
440 [13]Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA District 3-AA-A0-022.09-4.4129.06
441 [52]Pataula Charter1-A Division II †0-021.93-4.6528.98
442 [51]Glenn Hills4-AA0-021.93-6.4727.15
443 [3]Lanier ChristianGAPPS Region 1-AA0-020.71-5.7129.14
444 [61]Walker5-A Division I #0-020.49-6.8128.25
445 [63]Groves3-AAA0-018.70-8.2028.66
446 [53]Savannah3-A Division II0-016.54-10.6628.35
447 [52]Jordan1-AA0-015.84-7.7231.99
448 [60]Clarkston5-AAAA0-013.74-12.4329.38
449 [54]Baconton Charter1-A Division II †0-013.43-9.0433.08
450 [62]Mount Bethel Christian5-A Division I †0-013.13-8.6233.81
451 [4]Creekside ChristianGAPPS Region 1-AA0-012.79-9.1133.66
452 [27]Riverside PrepGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-010.52-10.7134.33
453 [55]Twiggs County5-A Division II0-010.39-10.8734.30
454 [63]Utopian Academy4-A Division I0-09.08-12.2734.21
455 [56]Central (Talbotton)6-A Division II0-06.99-14.2434.33
456 [57]Calhoun County1-A Division II †0-06.31-12.4936.75
457 [14]Rock Springs ChristianGIAA District 1-AA-A0-04.41-15.5435.60
458 [58]Spring Creek1-A Division II †0-03.27-13.6838.61
459 [15]Windsor AcademyGIAA District 1-AA-A0-01.72-14.1339.70
460 [59]Southwest Georgia STEM1-A Division II †0-00.50-16.2638.79
461 [61]Cross Keys5-AAAA †0-0-13.37-25.3343.59

† - Plays a non-region schedule / # - Qualifies for the smaller private school playoffs

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating,” which is the mode of the Extreme Value Type I Distribution (i.e., the Gumbel minimum distribution) applied to the ratings. This calculation favors regions with large numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Teams Comp Rating Avg Rating
11-AAAAAA688.2382.55
22-AAAAAA587.3481.56
32-AAAAA686.9382.77
41-AAAA684.7981.21
58-AAAAAA783.5274.31
65-AAAAAA783.3977.36
77-AAAAA779.8069.04
87-AAAAAA877.9170.24
94-AAAAAA776.2466.33
103-AA574.3969.19
116-AAAAAA874.1670.94
126-AAAA574.0970.30
137-AAAA774.0571.43
141-AAA672.7567.56
152-AAA872.0867.91
163-AAAAA871.8164.98
175-AAAAA871.7365.45
188-AA470.2656.89
193-AAAAAA869.5464.10
203-A Division I369.3865.01
218-AAA668.6359.53
223-AAAA768.4465.39
238-AAAA767.9762.02
246-AAAAA866.7061.96
252-AAAA1065.5559.46
264-AAAAA865.2957.37
271-A Division I764.7958.60
281-AAAAA964.7160.47
294-AAAA863.9454.89
302-A Division II663.8361.14
315-AA563.7752.97
328-A Division I563.7158.34
335-AAA763.7056.83
347-AAA763.4556.75
352-AA662.0855.96
368-AAAAA761.4458.17
377-AA860.7153.67
387-A Division II560.2653.98
394-AA659.5048.05
402-A Division I1058.9953.49
41GIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA558.6353.78
426-AAA758.2250.70
434-AAA857.2051.88
443-AAA956.9445.17
456-AA556.8651.76
465-AAAA956.4649.24
476-A Division I655.8653.24
483-A Division II953.1747.35
491-AA852.9844.49
504-A Division II752.1648.21
515-A Division I152.1133.92
52GIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA549.5244.07
534-A Division I749.4841.39
546-A Division II749.4040.28
558-A Division II549.3646.65
56GIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA547.3043.89
577-A Division I747.1040.64
58GIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA446.1343.24
591-A Division II740.7746.48
60GIAA District 4-AA-A640.3937.41
615-A Division II639.9833.30
62GIAA District 3-AA-A435.4232.49
63GIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA834.9429.68
64GIAA District 1-AA-A531.9223.61
65GAPPS Region 1-AA427.5123.66

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Favorite Underdog Score Diff Prob Likelihood

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Prob
98.7008/16MiltonBuford - 2.7258.1%
98.3111/01Mill CreekBuford - 1.6655.0%
94.4809/13Colquitt CountyLee County - 9.6175.9%
94.1308/30CarrolltonRome - 5.5866.1%
93.3708/16CarrolltonWoodward Academy - 4.4763.0%
92.6409/06BufordRoswell - 7.0569.9%
92.3710/04Colquitt CountyValdosta - 10.1077.0%
92.3608/30WaltonRoswell - 5.3265.4%
92.0009/20WaltonNorth Cobb - 7.6671.4%
91.9208/23BufordBenedictine - 9.6075.9%
91.7410/04CarrolltonWestlake - 8.3273.0%
91.2011/01MiltonRoswell - 11.4079.6%
91.1908/30Woodward AcademyMarist - 1.0053.0%
91.0810/04Lee CountyCoffee - 4.3562.7%
90.7908/16HughesWestlake - 3.1859.4%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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