We live in Atlanta. When it comes to traffic, weather and postseason sports, we live in dread. The Braves: Fourteen consecutive first-place finishes, one World Series title. The Hawks: A lone trip to the Eastern Conference finals, swept once there. The Falcons: In business a half-century, their single Super Bowl remains a case study in how not to handle a Super Bowl.
A man who lives not far from the Georgia Dome famously asked: Why not the best? When any Atlanta franchise approaches the playoffs, we ask a different question: How will our guys blow it this time? We could run through the lengthy litany — Levingston’s running lefty hook, Wohlers’ slider to Leyritz, Eugene getting arrested — but y’all know the roll call of woe too well. Bottom line: We expect not the best but the absolute worst.
These Falcons, however, appear to bear the look of something different. (Note that I’m hedging my optimism: A hundred times bitten, two hundred times shy.) They weren’t expected to do much. They looked awful in their opener. They were 4-1 but slid to 4-3 and had Aaron Rodgers coming to town, and we’ve seen — Atlanta Playoff Flop No. 57 — what Aaron Rodgers can do in this town. But here these Falcons are, having shaded Mr. Discount Double Check by a skinny point, having shrugged off Eric Berry’s Pick-2 to finish second in the NFC. They keep surprising us, usually in a good way. We’re not used to that.
This isn’t the best all-around team in Falcons annals. Its offense, however, is historically great, and the NFL isn’t like baseball, where good pitching inevitably stops good hitting. A mighty defense is a nice thing to have, but if defense were everything, the Seahawks would have won three if not four of the past four Super Bowls. They won one.
Those Seahawks are the first impediment on the Falcons’ road to Super Bowl LI, and we’re right to take them seriously. They’re not the Texans. They could come here and win. But they shouldn’t. They’re not as good as the Falcons, and it’s not really close. If we go by Football Outsiders’ DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings, Seattle is the second-worst team of the NFL’s final eight.
The absence of free safety Earl Thomas, lost to a broken leg, cannot be overstated. His ability to patrol the deep middle held Seattle’s Cover-3 together. His interception of the pass that glanced off Julio Jones’ hands turned the epic game of Oct. 16 at CenturyLink Field, which ended with assisting Richard Sherman — who infamously grabbed Jones’ left shoulder — on the fateful fourth-and-10 fling. The Seahawks played without Kam Chancellor, the estimable strong safety, that Sunday in Seattle, but he’s the key to the run defense. The one man the Seahawks could least afford to lose against Jones and Matt Ryan is the one they’ve lost.
Without Thomas, the Seahawks cannot hope to limit the Falcons to, say, 17 points. (Only the Eagles held this offense under 23, and that was two months ago.) In road games, Seattle averaged 15.6 points; three times in eight, it failed to score a touchdown. The Seahawks aren’t built to win shootouts. These Falcons aren’t built to be outdrawn.
The Falcons’ point totals since the Philadelphia game and an ensuing bye — 38, 28, 42, 41, 33 and 38. They hit 30 in 11 of their 16 games; they hit 40 in five. Seattle managed 30 four times, most recently in the Christmas Eve home loss to Arizona, which cost the Seahawks the No. 2 seed and is the reason this game will be staged here. A Nov. 13 victory at New England notwithstanding, Seattle has been a bad road team. It lost at New Orleans. It lost at Tampa Bay. It lost by 28 points at Green Bay.
We think of this game as scary because we recall the Seahawks of the past four seasons, but this is a lesser edition. We recall the Falcons’ great escape of Jan. 13, 2013 — the one playoff victory of Mike Smith’s tenure, the Falcons’ only playoff victory of the past 12 years — as a reason to fear this opponent, but these Falcons don’t scare. They won at Oakland. They won at Denver. They swept three road games against NFC South brethren. They coulda/shoulda won in Seattle.
We live in Atlanta, which means we’ve been conditioned to the Cosmic Flop. These Falcons might lose, but they won’t flop. This year is not like other (meaning most if not all) years. Even history — rarely a friend to Atlanta franchises — bodes well. This is the third time the Falcons have been the No. 2 seed: Both times they played for the NFC championship, and one time they won it.
They’ll play for the NFC title this time. The game might well be played here. Wherever it’s held, they’ll win it. A season of happy surprises will get happier still. The Falcons are going to the Super Bowl.
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