If anyone questions whether the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, consider that many of the worst teams are looking for one.
That said, this year's crop of quarterback prospects could have those teams saying pass, pass, pass — at least at the top of this year's three-day draft, which starts Thursday in Philadelphia.
"As far as the quarterbacks in this year's class, I'm not banging the table for any of them," said Mike Mayock, lead draft expert for NFL Network. "I think there's talent in the class, but I think it's going to take a year for most of these guys."
That's not to suggest this will be a year like 2013, when the underwhelming EJ Manuel was the only quarterback selected in the opening round. In fact, it would be a surprise if Clemson's Deshaun Watson, North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky, and Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes slipped into the second. But it would be something of an upset if the Cleveland Browns, coming off a one-win season, used the top pick on a quarterback, even though a quarterback has been selected No. 1 overall in five of the past seven years.
Conversely, this draft class is unusually flush with players who live to ruin a quarterback's day. There are lots of talented edge rushers, and an unusual abundance of defensive backs. A pair of safeties — Louisiana State's Jamal Adams and Ohio State's Malik Hooker figure to be among the top 10 selections — and projected first-round cornerback prospects include Ohio State teammates Marshon Lattimore and Gareon Conley, LSU's Tre'Davious White, Washington's Kevin King, and Florida's Quincy Wilson. UCLA's Fabian Moreau and USC's Adoree' Jackson are widely regarded as early-round picks, too.
"Over the years, with the proliferation of the spread offenses and the spread defenses, for lack of a better term, there are a lot of corners and a lot of safeties who have to match up with a number of wide receivers," said Kevin Colbert, Pittsburgh Steelers general manager.
Just because there are a lot of enticing corners, however, doesn't mean this draft is loaded with sure-thing prospects at the position.
"When you're looking at corners," Mayock said, "you have to go to the basics. That's two things: Can you find a ball in the air with your back to the quarterback? No. 2, are you willing to tackle? They're the two biggest reasons the big plays occur. Corners can't do those two things.
"So there are a lot of pretty-looking guys that run fast forward in shorts. And I think we make mistakes sometimes when we fall in love with the guys with hips and great change of pace, and we forget that they either can't catch the ball or they won't tackle. So I think that's where most of the mistakes are made."
The big men up front, the ones turning up the heat on quarterbacks, are likewise plentiful in this draft. Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett stands a good chance of being the first player selected, Stanford defensive end Solomon Thomas could wind up in San Francisco as the second pick, and Tennessee's Derek Barnett — who broke Reggie White's school sack record — could wind up in the top 10.
Mayock compares Garrett to Denver's Von Miller, a spectacular pass rusher capable of taking a sledgehammer to the best of offensive game plans.
"I've been on record from Day 1 saying I think they have to take him at No. 1," Mayock said of Garrett. "You can continue to try to move down the board all you want and pick up more picks, and I get that and I respect that. But at some point you better start taking some difference makers, and I think he's a difference maker."
A difference maker for Dallas last season was rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, who led the NFL in rushing with 1,631 yards. Several teams will be looking for running backs in this year's draft, and there are some attractive options — from LSU bruiser Leonard Fournette, to Stanford do-everything Christian McCaffrey, to Florida State's explosive Dalvin Cook.
Carolina is believed to be targeting either Fournette or McCaffrey with the eighth pick, looking to take some of the pressure off under-fire quarterback Cam Newton.
Coach-turned-ESPN analyst Jon Gruden isn't sure which way the Panthers should go in that regard.
"They're completely different backs," Gruden said. "I think it depends on what your vision is offensively, what you want to do ...
"McCaffrey's a jack-of-all trades. You've got to be able to use him creatively in your passing game. ... In the return games obviously, but as a receiver, as a guy that can line up in any formation and be a threat at any time, if that's your offense I think McCaffrey's for you.
"If you're looking to be a little more conventional, take the burden off your quarterback and pound the ball, Fournette is your guy."
Then there's the most controversial player in the draft, Oklahoma's Joe Mixon, who could be the best running back in this class but who in 2014 punched a young woman in the face — a brutal attack caught on video — breaking four bones in her face.
Whereas some teams might have taken him off their draft board, there are surely others prepared to deal with the fallout of selecting him.
"I'm the GM, I take him off my board," Mayock said. "As soon as I see that video, he's off my board. However, more than half the league is doing their homework on this guy, and he's going to play in the league."
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