The Braves were five games under .500 on June 16, sitting eight games out in the National League East. On Wednesday, they entered play 12 games over .500 and 3-1/2 games up, just on the verge of clinching their fourth consecutive division title.
Their win over the Phillies on Tuesday eliminated the disaster scenario – a Phillies’ sweep that would’ve swung the division race – and instead shifted the math further in the Braves’ favor. Their magic number was three entering Wednesday, and it would fall to one with a Braves victory Wednesday night.
Baseball Reference gives the Braves a 97.9% chance of making the postseason. FanGraphs has the Braves’ playoff odds at 95.9%. This is Atlanta, so “never say never” applies, but the Braves are on the cusp of securing another postseason berth.
“We all had belief in ourselves as a group,” manager Brian Snitker said. “It just took us a while, three-quarters of the season, to get anything going consistently. We did a good job of staying around and keeping our head near the top. After the trade deadline, things started falling together, and we got on a little roll there.”
Tuesday’s game had a “playoff feel,” Snitker said, which made sense because this series essentially is a postseason matchup. The Braves taking the first game was a crucial step toward making the playoffs.
Braves notes:
- Veteran reliever Josh Tomlin isn’t expected to rejoin the team this weekend. Tomlin was throwing on the field before Wednesday’s game, but he just wants to be prepared if he’s needed, Snitker said. Tomlin was placed on the injured list Aug. 31 (retroactive to Aug. 29) with a strained neck.
Tomlin, who turns 37 next month, had a 6.57 ERA over 49-1/3 innings this season, which was his third with the Braves. It’s possible the impending free agent has thrown his last pitch for the Braves. Tomlin had a 4.81 ERA over 103 appearances as the team’s long reliever in the past three seasons.
- Young catcher William Contreras made two starts against the Diamondbacks last week, going 4-for-8 with a double and walk in those appearances. Snitker praised Contreras, who had appeared in only one game in September before facing the Diamondbacks.
“I thought he did a really good job,” Snitker said. “The catching was really good. He swung the bat better than the last time he was here. I think you’re going to continue to see improvement by him. He’s a young kid that’s still figuring it out. He went back (to Triple-A Gwinnett) and played a lot, which was really good for him I think. Still love the kid a lot. He’s very talented. He’s shown he’s gotten better, and he’s matured.”
With Travis d’Arnaud signed to a two-year extension, Contreras’ spot in 2022 is uncertain. He could again serve as d’Arnaud’s backup, but the Braves valued him playing every day in Triple-A, where he spent most of July and August after struggling in the majors.
- Nobody would’ve expected Luke Jackson to be the Braves’ best reliever this season, but that’s what happened. The righty’s 58 scoreless appearances, including Tuesday, are third most in the majors. His 30 holds rank second in the bigs. His 89.7% left-on-base percentage ranks second best behind Milwaukee’s Josh Hader (91.7%), who’s generally considered the best reliever in MLB.
“He’s been unbelievable,” Snitker said of Jackson. “He’s been so good. Like I said before, if it wasn’t for Luke Jackson, we wouldn’t get to the ninth inning. It’s just amazing how he keeps getting better. … Luke came to spring training, he threw the ball really well all spring, and he’s put together a good year now.”
- Despite a hectic ninth inning Tuesday, the Braves won 2-1, and closer Will Smith left the tying run stranded at third. The Braves moved to 75-2 when taking a lead in the ninth inning. The only two NL teams with better records when leading going into the ninth are Chicago (55-0) and Milwaukee (55-1).
- Speaking of Milwaukee, the Brewers – the Braves’ NL Division Series opponent if they win the NL East – suffered a blow to their outstanding bullpen. Right-hander Devin Williams fractured his right hand because he punched a wall celebrating after the Brewers clinched their postseason spot.
The incident sounds similar to Braves righty Huascar Ynoa’s injury in May this season, which actually occurred in Milwaukee. Ynoa, frustrated following a disappointing outing, punched a dugout bench, breaking his hand and keeping him sidelined for months.
