It’s supremely critical for the Braves to win Game 1 with Chris Sale

It’s a three-game series.

Arguably, though, maybe everything hinges for the Braves in Game 1 of their National League wild-card series against Philadelphia Tuesday afternoon at Truist Park.

If the Braves can’t get it done in the opener with ace Chris Sale on the mound, the job of winning two of three becomes, if not impossible, immensely more difficult.

History with this format, instituted in 2022, strongly suggests it. The winner of Game 1 has gone on to win 15 of 16 series.

But, in this case, the Braves’ reliance on Sale makes it perhaps even more critical, as he is by far their best, most consistent and most reliable starter.

“It’s a great feeling” to have Sale starting, first baseman Matt Olson said Monday after a workout at Truist. “He’s been nothing short of amazing for us.”

His 2.16 ERA was third in the majors among qualified pitchers. His .98 WHIP was fifth. His 6.45 strikeout-to-walk ratio was first.

“It’s a different feeling” when Sale is the day’s starter, manager Walt Weiss said. “I think it elevates the room the day that that guy’s pitching.”

Given the weight that the Braves place on his starts, just imagine what it might be like if they can’t secure a Game 1 win, no matter how he pitches.

And it isn’t just Sale that affords the Braves such an advantage in Game 1. The Phillies will take the field Tuesday afternoon, likely to be physically and emotionally wrung out after they nearly gagged away a four-game lead for the final wild-card spot with five games to play, needing to win (or have the Arizona Diamondbacks lose) Sunday on the final day of the regular season to get into the postseason.

They had to send ace Zach Wheeler to the mound Sunday to clinch their playoff berth, scrapping their plans to have him go in Game 1 of the wild-card round. Jesús Luzardo, who came off the injury list (shoulder inflammation) to pitch one inning, will start as an opener Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Braves, having clinched the division Sept. 20, are rested and primed.

To lose Tuesday would be to take those advantages and punt them into the upper deck. The Phillies would surely be invigorated to have won in these circumstances and to now be one win away from advancing over a team that they had ousted from the postseason in 2022 and 2023, also as underdogs.

The Braves, meanwhile, would be faced with having to beat Philadelphia two games in a row, once with Tyler Mahle on Wednesday and then in Game 3 with an uncertain pitching strategy, possibly Grant Holmes. Philadelphia would likely counter with Cristopher Sánchez in Game 2 (2.91 ERA) and Aaron Nola (4.67 ERA) in Game 3.

If you want a reason to even be more anxious about this scenario, consider that Sale’s postseason record is surprisingly spotty. He did have the iconic moment of coming out of the bullpen to close out the 2018 World Series championship for the Boston Red Sox.

But his ERA in his 10 career postseason appearances – all with Boston, seven of them starts – is 6.35.

That said, should Game 1 go the Braves’ way, they would likewise gain an enormous advantage. They could put the Phillies against the wall with a rested starter (Mahle) who has been a standout in his two months with the team.

So it matters a bit.

An ultimate competitor, the 37-year-old Sale will be ready for his first playoff appearance in a Braves uniform.

“I think you just learn that it’s just about harnessing the energy,” Sale said. “I learned this from Dave Tollett, my college coach (at Florida Gulf Coast University) – you can’t be better than you are. You can’t play above what you possess.

“Sometimes you go out there and you try to do too much and you actually do less. Just keeping it together try not to be too emotional and letting anything outside affect what your job is.”

He may especially need that focus for the rather interesting assignment for home-plate umpire. Dan Merzel was the home-plate umpire for the Braves-Yankees game Aug. 8 when he called Sale for a balk, which led to Sale and Weiss protesting the call, with Weiss getting ejected.

Sale was so incensed by the balk call – he has been called for three balks in a career that has lasted more than 2,200 innings – that he made his displeasure known to Merzel before the next day’s game and was ejected.

Sale said he did not anticipate “anything funny” in the game with Merzel behind the plate.

“We’re grown-ups,” Sale said. “This isn’t third-grade schoolyard BS. He’s a professional. He’s one of the best at what he does. I’m a professional and I’d like to think I hold myself to a high standard, so I don’t anticipate there being anything funny going on (Tuesday).”