Dirty Birds Dispatch: What’re the odds Penix starts?

FLOWERY BRANCH — Good news, folks. To open his news conference Wednesday, I asked Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski if he had his quarterback yet for the team’s Week 2 bout with the Carolina Panthers, and he delivered perhaps the only true answer about the position he gave all day.

“We will have a quarterback, yes,” Stefanski said.

Thanks, Coach. We followed up, of course … and of course, there was no definitive answer as to who the Falcons’ quarterback will be. There are four possible outcomes, all with various chances of coming to fruition. Let’s take a guess at probabilities for Sunday’s starter, because math is (sometimes) fun.

• Michael Penix Jr.: 50%
• Cooper Rush: 45%
• Tua Tagovailoa: 4%
• Jack Strand: 1%

Here’s the deal: When he’s healthy, the Falcons are Penix’s team. He’s been a full participant in practice over the past four weeks, and he split first-team reps with Rush on Wednesday.

Penix still hasn’t told the Falcons he’s ready to play, but he wouldn’t be getting first-team reps on a Wednesday — the most important install day — if he and the team didn’t believe there was at least a reasonable chance he could play Sunday.

And he thinks it’s feasible, too.

“I didn’t say this week wasn’t realistic,” Penix said. “I’m working each and every day. Right now, I have to be where my feet are. So, today I felt good at practice. I want to keep making strides, keep feeling better each and every day, and that’s what it’s about.

“Once my knee feels where I need it to be, I’m going to be ready to play. Like I said, there’s no number on it. No Week 3, Week 4. Whenever my knee feels good, I’m going to be out there. It’s nothing else other than that.”

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Rush isn’t fully healthy either, but after experiencing back spasms Saturday, starting Sunday and undergoing treatment thereafter, he said he feels “a lot better.” Tagovailoa didn’t practice Wednesday because of an oblique injury. Strand worked with the scout team. The Falcons don’t appear interested in playing Strand and perhaps jeopardizing his long-term development.

It’s difficult to see Tagovailoa, who Stefanski said is “getting better,” suddenly returning to health fast enough to start Sunday, but there’s at least a small chance.

So, who starts Sunday? Perhaps the Falcons use The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s new spin-the-wheel machine for some assistance. In all seriousness, Penix is firmly in play. If he can’t go, Rush will be the starter. That’s my glean. We’ll see where it goes.

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Panthers’ defense reeling from Week 1 disaster

Bears running back D'Andre Swift dodges Panthers defenders in Week 1. (Erik Verduzco/AP)

For several seconds in his opening statement, Stefanski paused, as if he were trying to find the right words for the Panthers’ defense. He started with, “Defensively, the challenge is …” and then pondered.

The Panthers gave up 59 points to the Chicago Bears in the season opener. They allowed 552 yards of offense. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams scored half as many touchdowns (four) as he had incomplete passes (eight), and Chicago’s run game produced 291 yards on the ground.

Stefanski eventually found the right phrasing.

“Defensively, the challenge is blocking them first,” he said. “I think they have a really good front. Secondary presents all sorts of challenges with good players.”

• Panthers defensive tackle Derrick Brown, a Pro Bowler in 2023 who had five sacks and 11 quarterback hits last season, figures to be among the Falcons’ top priorities.
• Stefanski also touted edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, a first-round pick in 2021 who logged a sack in his Panthers debut.

“This is a big front,” Stefanski said. “They can rush the passer. They can move you along the front with some of their line movement. They’re just big and powerful.”

They also appear reliant on bringing additional bodies to help support their pass-rushing cause. Carolina blitzed on 51.3% of its plays against the Bears, second-most in the league, according to Next Gen Stats. The Falcons’ offensive line will have to adjust after the Steelers blitzed just 7.7% of the time, the lowest number in the league.

Explosive offense means a steeper defensive challenge

While their defense struggles, the Panthers’ offense largely did well keeping pace with the Bears.

Carolina totaled 478 yards of offense, and quarterback Bryce Young went 23-for-37 passing for 361 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Jalen Coker caught eight passes for 138 yards and two scores, while rising second-year pro Tetairoa McMillan notched five receptions for 75 yards.

“I think a lot of their quarterback, who can make every throw,” Stefanski said. “They have receivers — multiple — on the outside that can hurt you. It’s a tough run attack. There’s all sorts of things that they (have that) give you issues.”

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Young is 4-1 against the Falcons in his career, and he’s led the Panthers to three straight wins in the series. He went 31-for-45 passing for 448 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions on Nov. 16, 2025, in the last meeting between the two sides.

Falcons defensive tackle Brandon Dorlus, who faced Young twice last season, views this week as a chance for the team’s defense to make a statement.

“We know what Bryce wants,” Dorlus said. “We know how he is in the pocket. At the end of the day, when the front is playing four as one as a whole collective, and we’re on the same page, I feel like we’ve got one of the best groups in the league.

“I feel like we are one of the best, and I feel like we’re going to show you all that we’re the best.”

This is, in fact, a rivalry … right?

Falcons defensive tackle Brandon Dorlus speaks to members of the media after an August joint practice with the Titans. (Miguel Martinez/ AJC)

Dorlus didn’t know. Seriously.

“There’s a rivalry with the Panthers?” He asked a reporter in response to a question about the rivalry. “I didn’t know there was a rivalry.”

The Falcons and Panthers are NFC South foes. The Falcons own a 37-25 edge all-time in the I-85 rivalry. Geographically speaking, the Panthers are the closest NFL team to the Falcons.

So, yes, there’s some weight here. Not that it particularly influences the way Dorlus views the game.

“At the end of the day, we’ve got to do our job,” Dorlus said. “It’s been tough since I’ve been here (against the Panthers), but honestly, we have the coaches (and) we have the players to go in and win the game.

“I’m not scared about anything for this game. I’m ready to go.”

Injury report … and what to make of it

Full participation

• CB Billy Bowman (Achilles)
• QB Michael Penix Jr. (knee)
• QB Cooper Rush (back)

Limited participation

• N/A

Did not participate

• G Chris Lindstrom (concussion)
• QB Tua Tagovailoa (oblique)
• CB A.J. Terrell (shoulder)

Lindstrom remains in concussion protocol. He watched Wednesday’s practice from the sidelines. If he can’t play, Kyle Hinton figures to be the Falcons’ starting right guard. Tagovailoa and Terrell weren’t spotted at practice. Terrell fell awkwardly on his shoulder during the Falcons’ loss to the Steelers but returned to the game after a brief stint in the injury tent.