The Jolt: U.S. Senate runoff down to the wire — a look at the numbers

$52 million: The amount of money that Warnock raised from Oct. 20 through Nov. 16, the latest fundraising disclosure period. Walker raised nearly $21 million during the same span.

Nearly $80 million: The amount spent by Walker and Warnock, along with outside groups, to buy airtime during the four-week runoff.

$232 million: Roughly the amount of cash that WSB-TV collected in political advertising between Jan. 1, 2020 and Nov. 28, 2022, more than any other station in the nation, per the ad tracker AdImpact firm.

More than 1.85 million: The number of Georgians who cast early ballots through the weekend, per Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Turnout for the runoff has now reached 26.4% of active Georgia voters, but is about 750,000 fewer early voters than in the general election.

52%: The projected percentage of Democratic voters among early-in person and mail ballots in an analysis of data from the left-leaning TargetSmart firm.

52%: Also Warnock’s standing in the latest CNN poll, which pegged the Democrat with a four-point lead over the Republican.

Two: More days until we know how it ends.

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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

LISTEN UP. We’ve got a special election eve edition of the Politically Georgia podcast, with the five questions we’re asking heading into Tuesday’s runoff. And keep an ear out first thing Wednesday morning, when we’ll have our Senate election wrap up show.

Listen at Listen and subscribe to our podcast for free at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Stitcher.

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WATCH. Be sure to click into our AJC online event today at 2 p.m., featuring The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s elections expert, Mark Niesse, and our fellow Insider Tia Mitchell. They’ll go through the early voting data and answer your questions.

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AG-ITATED COMMISSIONER. Outgoing Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black isn’t happy that months-old footage of him criticizing Herschel Walker during his unsuccessful primary bid is now being featured in a Democratic ad.

Credit: File photo

Credit: File photo

“I got into the race to defeat Raphael Warnock and him making my comments in the primary look recent is just one more deception from him,” Black told us.

He’s referring to a round of pro-Warnock ads that showcase an interview Black conducted with ABC News in May, along with recent comments from Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, warning about Walker’s baggage.

Black said he’s been deluged with complaints from Republicans who have seen the ad.

He sends them an email that he hasn’t talked publicly to any reporters about the Senate race since his defeat — we can attest to that — and that neither campaign has “ever reached out to me for anything.”

“I did not authorize the use of the clip that you have seen. I did not cut an ad for the senator,” Black said, adding:

“I did not win the primary on May 24. I worked hard and told the truth. But, Georgia Republicans — 85% of them — told me to return to my farm in Commerce and do something else. I’m at total peace with that.”

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Credit: Dustin Chambers/AP

Credit: Dustin Chambers/AP

BUSY DAY. You can tell plenty about a candidate’s strategy by their election eve stops.

Republican Herschel Walker has a series of events on Monday across a swath of north Georgia — crucial GOP territory where he lagged behind Gov. Brian Kemp in November. He’ll end the night at the same place where he held his final event before the midterm with a rally at the Governor’s Gun Club in Kennesaw.

U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock is focused on motivating the Democratic base, starting with a get-out-the-vote event with union organizers in Atlanta, a rally for students at Georgia Tech, a stop with the rapper Killer Mike and a final send-off in Atlanta.

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Credit: File photo

Credit: File photo

ARREST MADE. Savannah police say the man who shot a teenager while he was knocking on doors for U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock did not appear to have been motivated by politics. A suspect has been charged, the AJC’s Alexis Stevens reported.

We first told you about this incident in Friday’s Jolt. The 15-year-old was shot in the leg while he was knocking on the front door of the home. Fortunately, his injuries were not life threatening. The suspect is accused of shooting at the teen through the closed door.

Jimmy Arturo Paiz, 43, was arrested at the home where the shooting occurred and charged with aggravated assault and aggravated battery, Savannah police said. He was booked into the Chatham County jail, where he was being held on $5,700 bond Friday afternoon, records showed.

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Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

TODAY ON THE TRAIL:

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QUALIFYING. No sooner does one election in Georgia end than another one begin — this time for the January 3rd special election to fill the seat of the late House Speaker David Ralston.

Sheree Ralston, the executive director of the Fannin County Development Authority and the widow of the late Speaker, will be in the Capitol this morning to officially qualify for the race. Her last public event under the Gold Dome was last month, as she received mourners in the Rotunda while her husband lay in state.

Along with Ralston, Brian K. Pritchard, the Blue-Ridge based CEO of FetchYourNews.com, is also running as a Republican to fill the seat.

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Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

NO TRUMP CHUMP. Gov. Brian Kemp has been getting high praise from the places you’d expect, like The Wall Street Journal, and those you wouldn’t, like this weekend’s New York Times editorial page.

In her essay, “The Man Who Neutered Trump,” Times columnist Michelle Cottle wrote of Kemp, “Whatever happens with Mr. Walker, keep an eye on Mr. Kemp. The 59-year-old Republican governor is positioning himself to be a major Republican player — one that, unlike so many in his party, is not a complete Trump chump.”

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JOBS REPORT. The White House was eager to tout November’s strong monthly jobs report and lower gas prices in Georgia ahead of Tuesday’s runoff, particularly with the national inflation rate at 7.7% and Atlanta’s October rate coming in at 11.7%.

Jared Bernstein, an economic adviser to President Joe Biden, told AJC business editor J. Scott Trubey that Biden’s policies are helping working families muscle through inflation, with wage gains and lower gas prices providing some financial cushion.

Georgia’s unemployment rate remains near record lows and, as of Friday, the state was one of only five in the nation with gas prices averaging below $3 per gallon.

“That means some breathing room,” Bernstein said.

Georgia gas prices are also at nationwide lows because GOP Gov. Brian Kemp has repeatedly suspended the state’s 29.1 cents-per-gallon gas tax.

Bernstein said the bipartisan infrastructure law, legislation to expand semiconductor production and the Democrats’ climate and health care bill have spurred needed reinvestment in American manufacturing jobs, which have benefitted Georgians, although Republicans in the state disagree.

“When we get a jobs report with strong job growth and solid wage growth, we’re going to look at it for what it is — what working families need to get their fair share of the growth that this economy is generating,” he said.

The Federal Reserve has signaled it will continue to keep interest rates elevated to tame inflation. Those efforts have slowed the housing market and triggered some layoffs in the tech sector, but Georgia’s jobs engine continues to chug along.

“I think that the economy we’re looking at today is posting numbers that are increasingly inconsistent with any kind of recessionary call,” Bernstein said.

Still, Friday’s strong jobs report is likely to complicate the effort to tame inflation, the Associated Press reports, and could lead to the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer.

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TODAY IN WASHINGTON:

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TO GLADYS, WITH HONORS. Atlanta R&B legend Gladys Knight was among the honorees Sunday night at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington.

According to the Associated Press, Patti LaBelle and hip-hop star and actor L.L. Cool J were among those who gave tribute to Knight. Country music legend Garth Brooks also sang “Midnight Train to Georgia.”

Prior to the event, Knight and the other honorees attended a reception with President Joe Biden at the White House.

The program was taped and will air on Dec. 28 on CBS.

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PERSONNEL DEPARTMENT. The powerful movie industry has filled the role for its lobbyist under the Gold Dome next session. The Motion Picture Association has hired Brandon Reese to rep the movie makers in Georgia and at legislatures across the Southeast.

Reese is a familiar face in the Capitol after stints with WellStar Health System, the Georgia Electric Membership Corporation and the Georgia Chamber of Commerce.

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BEEN THERE, DRONE THAT. Georgia Safe and Strong, a super PAC funded mostly by Progress Georgia and a PAC affiliated with the Service Employees International Union, sponsored a drone show over Piedmont Park Sunday night in support of U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock.

Dozens of drones were coordinated to create get-out-the-vote messages and other designs in the sky, including Warnock’s face.

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AS ALWAYS, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.