The Jolt: A test for Kemp as Hurricane Ian nears Georgia coast

News and analysis from the politics team at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Gov. Brian Kemp talks with meteorologist Will Lanxton (left) and director Chris Stallings (right) while touring the Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency on Sept. 28, 2022. (John Spink / AJC)

Credit: John Spink / AJC

Credit: John Spink / AJC

Gov. Brian Kemp talks with meteorologist Will Lanxton (left) and director Chris Stallings (right) while touring the Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency on Sept. 28, 2022. (John Spink / AJC)

For the third day in a row, Gov. Brian Kemp will start his morning at an emergency command center where he’ll be briefed on Hurricane Ian’s latest course. Though Georgia is expected to avoid a direct hit, storm surges, gusty winds and downpours could threaten low-lying areas along the Georgia coast.

The governor declared a state of emergency long before Ian made landfall Thursday in Florida, a preemptive step that follows the approach former Gov. Nathan Deal took in his final years in office.

Deal began taking more aggressive steps to prepare for severe weather after poor communication and a shoddy government response to the icy weather in 2014 became a humiliating debacle for the state.

Since then, a weather task force prompted officials to buy more equipment and improve coordination. And Kemp has followed Deal’s better-safe-than-sorry mantra shaped by that storm.

While the visit Friday to the command center won’t be a campaign stop for Kemp, a successful approach to emergencies can make or break careers for leaders in office.

Much of Kemp’s first term has played out in the heat of crises, including the global coronavirus pandemic and its ongoing effects on the state’s schools, workforce, hospitals and economy.

The governor was roundly criticized, including by then-President Donald Trump, for making Georgia the first state to allow businesses to reopen during the pandemic. A poll six months into the pandemic showed 50% of Georgians approved of Kemp’s response, while 47% disapproved. Those were slightly higher marks than Trump’s response as president.

Kemp is highlighting his decision to reopen the state in a 90-second ad about the economic impact of COVID-19. “Kemp gave us the freedom to reopen our business while other states were forced to shut down,” one business owner says in the spot.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s latest poll showed 54% of Georgia voters approved of the way Kemp has performed in office overall.

While Kemp’s results one-on-one polls against Democrat Stacey Abrams have fluctuated, the governor’s advisers point to his approval ratings in office as their primary reason for confidence six weeks out from Election Day.

And Abrams expects her argument that Kemp is a “dangerous” governor who puts his own political career above the welfare of Georgians will win out. Her case is that polls don’t reflect the newer voters infuriated by his support for antiabortion restrictions and other GOP policies.

”Polls are snapshots,” she told South Fulton voters this week. “The question is who are they taking a picture of?”

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LISTEN UP. It’s time for the week-in-review edition of the Politically Georgia podcast with two of your three Jolters.

We unpack the Braves’ trip to the White House, Herschel Walker’s shift further to the right, three questions from the famous listener mail bag, courtesy of some very high-information voters, and, of course, our awards for Who’s Up and Who’s Down for the week.

Listen and subscribe to our podcast for free at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Stitcher.

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ROAD BLOCK. A Morgan County judge dealt a potentially devastating blow to EV maker Rivian Thursday, ruling that the local development authority “failed to establish” that the $1.5 billion in bonds at the center of the Rivian project, now planned east of Atlanta, “are sound, feasible and reasonable.”

The AJC’s Scott Trubey has the details on the peril the ruling poses to one of Gov. Brian Kemp’s prized economic development wins.

A Morgan County judge on Thursday shot down a central component of the $1.5 billion incentive package offered to electric vehicle startup Rivian, a ruling that threatens the future of one of Georgia’s biggest economic development projects. Pictured is the Rivian plant in Normal, Ill., on July 20, 2022. (Ron Johnson for the AJC)

Credit: Ron Johnson for the AJC

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Credit: Ron Johnson for the AJC

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THAT’S NUTS. U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, one of the most conservative members of the chamber, got a shoutout in U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock’s latest ad highlighting legislation the two sponsored to boost the U.S. peanut industry.

“I’m Raphael Warnock and I approve this message because I’ll do anything if it means helping Georgia,” the Democrat says, standing in a cascade of falling peanuts.

“Now that’s really nuts,” says Glenn Hurd, a peanut farmer from Bainbridge.

It’s also shrewd politics. With President Joe Biden’s approval ratings at rock-bottom lows, Warnock has been far more likely to talk about bipartisan alliances with the likes of Tuberville, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida than the president, who gets no mention in the spot.

Warnock’s path to potential victory over Republican Herschel Walker relies on attracting swing voters and wavering conservatives who worry about the former football star’s ability to serve. Walker, in turn, has tried to double down on conservative policies to consolidate the GOP base.

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FACT CHECK. The Washington Post’s Fact Checker, Glenn Kessler, checked the facts on Stacey Abrams’ recent assertion on “The View” that she “never denied” that she lost the 2018 election — and it wasn’t pretty.

On Sept. 14, Abrams told the hosts, “I have never denied that I lost. I don’t live in the governor’s mansion; I would have noticed.”

But Kessler listed the many times Abrams said she had won the election, including a 2019 speech to the National Action Network. “We had this little election back in 2018. And despite the final tally and the inauguration and the situation we find ourselves in, I do have one very affirmative statement to make. We won.”

Although Republicans were quick to jump on the piece, Kessler also notes that Abrams never went outside the legal system to change the results, unlike former President Donald Trump.

The conclusion is unflattering nonetheless. “Abrams played up claims the election was stolen until such tactics became untenable for anyone who claims to be an advocate for American democratic norms and values.”

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ABUSE RESPONSE. GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker addressed his history of domestic violence in an interview this week with Rolling Out.

“He without sin cast the first stone,” Walker said. “And does my opponent believe in redemption, being a pastor? That’s what’s so funny.”

Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker addressed his history of domestic violence in an interview this week by Rolling Out. He is pictured at a campaign event in Canton, Georgia, on Sept. 27. (Jason Getz / AJC)

Credit: Jason Getz for the AJC

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Credit: Jason Getz for the AJC

He later said his opponent, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, is “bearing false witness.”

Asked if that meant the allegations against Walker are not true, Walker responded, “Some of the stuff he’s saying is not true.”

It’s only the second time Walker has discussed the topic directly since announcing his Senate run. He told Axios’ Emma Hurt in 2021, “I’m always accountable to whatever I’ve ever done. And that’s what I tell people: I’m accountable to it.”

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William Duffey, chairman for the State Board of Elections, receives questions from the public written in a paper during a meeting on Sept. 28, 2022. (Miguel Martinez / AJC)

Credit: Miguel Martinez for the AJC

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Credit: Miguel Martinez for the AJC

ELECTION INVESTIGATION. Georgia’s State Election Board is investigating whether the same company that copied voter data in Coffee County tried to do the same in a second Georgia county.

The AJC’s Mark Niesse reports that Atlanta-based SullivanStrickler was considered for similar work in Spalding County, but the agreement was never finalized and it doesn’t appear that any election data in that county was copied.

The firm also worked for Trump supporters on election data jobs in Michigan and Nevada, and the State Election Board has requested the FBI’s assistance with the GBI’s ongoing investigation.

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TRAIL MIX:

- Gov. Brian Kemp remains focused on Hurricane Ian. He’ll be at the State Operations Center at the Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency (GEMA/HS) headquarters in Atlanta. He’ll be updated on state operations and hold a news conference.

- Stacey Abrams joins Capital B today this morning for an online Q&A with reporter Chauncey Alcorn.

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HELP WANTED. The Georgia Council on Developmental Disabilities held a forum Thursday to hear from statewide candidates, our AJC colleague Katherine Landergan tells us.

Stacey Abrams, the Democratic nominee for governor, pledged to clear the massive backlog of people with disabilities who are waiting for support services from the state. Georgia state has only funded a fraction of the people who need services, and more than 7,000 people are currently on a waitlist to get help.

Gov. Brian Kemp, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Herschel Walker and U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock submitted videos in which they addressed broad themes related to the disability community.

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Sen. Jon Ossoff, left, and Sen. Raphael Warnock, right, both Georgia Democrats, voted to approve legislation to keep the government funded through Dec. 16. (Nathan Poser for the AJC)

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

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Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

OCTOBER RECESS. The U.S. Senate adjourned on Thursday after passing legislation to keep the government funded through Dec. 16.

That bill, which includes new money for disaster relief and Ukraine’s war against Russia, was approved 72-25. Twenty-two Republicans joined all 50 Democrats, including Georgia’s Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, in approving the measure.

After votes today, the House will join the Senate in recess and remain out of session through the midterm elections. That gives members more time to campaign in their reelections or for colleagues across the country.

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TODAY IN WASHINGTON:

  • The House is expected to vote today on the bill to fund the federal government through mid-December then recess through the midterms.
  • President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris President will attend the investiture ceremony for Associate Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.
  • The president is also scheduled to deliver remarks on the federal response to Hurricane Ian.

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BROWNFIELD CLEANUP. An Atlanta attorney considered one of Georgia’s leading experts on redeveloping Brownfield sites, testified during a U.S. Senate hearing this week to urge more state involvement in Brownfields initiatives.

Gerald Pouncey, the chairman of the Morris, Manning & Martin, told the Environment and Public Works Committee that huge costs and extensive EPA testing requirements can leave Brownfield sites undeveloped. That then poses major safety concerns for communities near them, especially families with young children.

Pouncey recommended moving sites from Environmental Protection Agency oversight to state programs and said states like Georgia have had success locally.

“In Georgia over 1300 properties have been entered into the Brownfield program since 2004 and over 700 properties have completed cleanup and achieved final closure under Brownfield.”

The Brownfield Redevelopment program, which is overseen by the EPA, is up for reauthorization next year.

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BLACK CAUCUS WEEK. The Congressional Black Caucus’ Annual Legislative Conference is in full swing in Washington this week, as are its legendary parties and receptions, your Insider Tia Mitchell reports.

Columbus-based Aflac hosted a reception Thursday night, where U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock received a Lifetime Achievement Award. Earlier, Georgia Power held an event honoring former state Rep. Calvin Smyre, the ambassador-nominee who is the former dean of the Georgia state House.

Other Georgia lawmakers hosted or joined panel discussions. On Saturday, Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens will host a reception to pitch Atlanta to host the 2024 Democratic National Convention.

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AS ALWAYS, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.