How Donald Trump won Georgia back for Republicans
Today’s newsletter highlights include:
- How Georgia’s battlegrounds played out.
- What voters said about casting their ballots.
- Bernie Marcus, a co-founder of Home Depot and a major Republican donor, dies.
President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in Georgia on Tuesday halted years of Democratic gains in the state and proved that Republicans can still win here by focusing almost exclusively on the party’s base.
Ahead of the election, we spotlighted four questions that would shape the results. Now that we have a victor, let’s take a closer look.
GENDER GAP. Exit polls showed the political divide between male and female voters in Georgia remained as wide as ever. Women outvoted men by 8 percentage points, but Trump captured male voters by a wider margin than Vice President Kamala Harris won women.
SPLIT TICKET VOTERS. There’s no conclusive data on whether swing voters who sided with Joe Biden four years ago bolted back to Trump or stayed in the Democratic camp. But Trump held his own in suburban areas where split-ticket voters tend to live. And he won independents by a 54-43 clip in exit polls.
LOSING LESS. Democrats dominated metro Atlanta, home to the lion’s share of Georgia’s votes. But Trump was able to cut his losses in some key areas. Biden won DeKalb County, arguably the most important Democratic bastion in Georgia, with 85% of the vote in 2020. Last night, Trump reduced that margin to 82% for Harris. Republicans also increased vote shares in Clayton, Fulton and Gwinnett counties — and limited Democratic gains in Cobb County.
BLACK VOTERS. There was no mass defection of Black voters to Trump’s camp. But exit polls suggest Harris won about 86% of Black voters, a few points shy of Democratic targets. She won 90% of Black women but only 81% of Black men. Her bigger problem was white voters. Biden won nearly 40% of white men and 44% of white women four years ago. Harris won only about a third of white women — and less than a quarter of white men.
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GOOD MORNING! The next presidential election is in 1,462 days — only kidding! We won’t be starting that 2028 countdown anytime soon. Thanks for waking up with us during this intense election season. We hope you’ll stick around, because there is much more to come in Georgia.
The state legislative session starts in 68 days (that’s a countdown we will be tracking). And term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp has a big decision to make: should he run for the U.S. Senate? For president? For anything?
As DeKalb County chief executive Michael Thurmond said, “As soon as the votes in Georgia are tallied, the race for 2026 begins.”
In the meantime, here are five things to know about the 2024 election:
- Donald Trump won the White House on Tuesday, completing a political comeback after refusing to admit defeat four years ago. At 78, he is the oldest person elected president and the first person to win the White House after a felony conviction.
- Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate after flipping seats in West Virginia and Ohio and fending off Democratic challenges in Texas and Florida. But control of the U.S. House of Representatives is not settled, with lots of races yet to be called.
- Georgia voters approved two constitutional amendments and one referendum on Tuesday. All three deal with taxes, the AJC’s Mirtha Donastorg reports.
- Transit expansion proposals appear to have failed again in Cobb and Gwinnett counties, the AJC’s Alia Pharr and Sara Gregory report.
- An Atlanta City Council seat is headed to a runoff after none of the five candidates got more than 50% of the vote, the AJC’s Riley Bunch reports.
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HOW IT HAPPENED. We told you last week about the most important battlegrounds in this battleground state. Here’s how they played out:
- Atlanta’s northern suburbs: Vice President Kamala Harris needed big numbers in Cobb and Gwinnett counties to have a chance. While she matched President Joe Biden’s margin in Cobb County, she appears to have slightly underperformed his total in Gwinnett.
- Southwest Georgia: Turnout in Democratic Dougherty County wasn’t as strong as four years ago. Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump’s win in Peach County continues its trend of correctly picking the president. Prior to Tuesday, the rural county north of Albany had correctly chosen the president in five of the last seven elections.
- Atlanta’s core: Harris easily won the Democratic strongholds of Clayton and DeKalb counties. But she did so by slightly smaller margins than Biden did four years ago, something she could not afford to do.
- South metro: Fayette County continued to bend but did not break. Trump won just over 51% of the vote, down from 53% in 2020 and 58% from 2016.
- GOP strongholds: Unlike Harris, Trump improved his margins in Republican heavy Forsyth and Floyd counties. Democrats had hoped to chip away at his advantage there.
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WHY IT HAPPENED. We can’t say for sure. But the Associated Press survey of more than 4,000 Election Day voters in Georgia offers some clues.
- Policy trumps character. A majority of Georgia voters said they did not think President-elect Donald Trump was honest and trustworthy or had the moral character to be president. But when it comes to policy ideas, a majority said they preferred Trump to Vice President Kamala Harris.
- Leadership counts. Trump cast his campaign in masculine terms, resulting in a wide gender gap as more men supported him than Harris. In Georgia, a majority of voters viewed Trump as a “strong leader,” while only 45% would say the same thing about Harris.
- Change candidate. Harris stumbled last month when she told hosts of “The View” that she could not think of anything she would have done differently than President Joe Biden. Trump seized on that comment in the campaign’s final weeks. In Georgia, 53% said they thought Trump would “bring positive change,” compared to 48% for Harris.
- Different motivations. Among Harris voters, the “future of democracy” appeared to be the biggest single factor determining their choice. But Trump voters were more focused on the economy, with 59% saying high prices for gas, groceries and other goods was most important for them.
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WHEN IT HAPPENED. The Associated Press declared Donald Trump the winner in Georgia at 12:58 a.m. That’s a lot quicker than in 2020, when the news agency waited until two weeks after Election Day to confirm President Joe Biden’s victory following an official recount.
The earlier result wasn’t a surprise. A new state law required all of Georgia’s record-setting early votes to be tabulated by at least one hour after the polls closed, which was 8 p.m. for most places. That left just Election Day ballots to tally.
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NO SPOILERS. Despite lots of drama surrounding third-party candidates on Georgia’s ballot, none appeared to have earned enough votes to influence the outcome of the race.
Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, a Georgia native, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein combined for less than 1% of the vote statewide. It was a setback for the Libertarian Party, which had captured at least 1% of the vote in the three previous presidential elections, the AJC’s Isaac Sabetai reports.
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GUESSING GAME. Now that Donald Trump is returning to the White House, look for a few Georgians to immediately be contenders for federal posts.
Chief among them is former U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who joined Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night with her husband Jeff Sprecher and other top donors.
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RACES WE WATCHED. It was status quo in the Georgia Senate, as neither party gained or lost seats. Things are more uncertain in the House. Just four races are yet to be called, and Democrats are leading in two of them. If things hold, Democrats will gain two seats overall, but Republicans will maintain their majority.
Last week, we told you about five races to watch in the state Legislature. So, what happened?
House District 48. Republican Scott Hilton held off a fierce challenge from Democrat Laura Murvartian. This was a seat made more competitive by redistricting.
House District 53. Republican Rep. Deborah Silcox was leading Democrat Susie Greenberg in this district spanning the affluent areas of Buckhead, Sandy Springs and Roswell. The district has a large Jewish population, making support for Israel in its war against Hamas as well as combating antisemitism a key issue.
House District 56. This one wasn’t close. The incumbent, Mesha Mainor, was elected as a Democrat two years ago. But she switched to a Republican last year after breaking with her party to vote for a bill offering private school vouchers. That created an opportunity for Democratic newcomer Bryce Berry, who easily won with more than 83% of the vote.
House District 99. Republican Rep. Matt Reeves defeated Democrat Michelle Kang in this Gwinnett County district that has one of the highest percentages of Asian American voters in the state.
Senate District 48. Republican Shawn Still defeated Democrat Ashwin Ramaswami. This race got a lot of attention because Still was one of 19 people indicted as part of the Fulton County election interference case. Ramaswami made that a big part of his campaign and raised a lot of money. But ultimately, the district’s Republican tilt was too much for Ramaswami to overcome.
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RECORD TURNOUT. More than 5.2 million people voted in Georgia, surpassing the previous record of 5 million in 2020.
It was a mostly smooth Election Day across the state despite some bomb threat hoaxes that forced evacuations of 12 polling places in metro Atlanta. The FBI attributed the threats to Russian sources. Those polling places stayed open past the 7 p.m. deadline to accommodate the disruptions.
Most people voted before Election Day during the state’s early voting period. That meant fewer lines on Tuesday, with Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger saying wait times averaged less than three minutes across the state.
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LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia,” the hosts analyze the election results. Then, Ryan Anderson of GeorgiaVotes.com talks about voter turnout. Plus, U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams, D-Atlanta, and Georgia Republican Party Chair Josh McKoon join the show.
Be sure to download the AJC’s Politically Georgia podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Episodes are uploaded by noon each day, just in time to have lunch with us. You can also listen live at 10 a.m. EDT on 90.1 FM WABE. Have a question for the show? Give us a call at 770-810-5297.
On Tuesday’s show, the hosts shared their expert analysis of this election season. Plus, you heard from AJC bureau chiefs Fletcher Page (Athens), Joe Kovac (Macon) and Adam Van Brimmer (Savannah) as well as student reporters from around the Atlanta metro area. And the AJC’s election expert Mark Niesse discussed how soon to expect results.
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RIP. Bernie Marcus, the 95-year-old billionaire co-founder of Atlanta-based Home Depot, died Monday night.
Marcus was a major player in Republican politics, making more than $70 million in federal political contributions between 2016 and 2024, according to data from OpenSecrets.
That included supporting Donald Trump, though at times he said the fellow billionaire was not his top choice among early Republican candidates, the AJC’s Jim Tharpe and Matt Kempner reported.
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SHOUTOUTS. Today’s birthdays:
- State Rep. Karen Mathiak, R-Griffin, who won reelection on Tuesday.
- State Rep. Mitchell Scoggins, R-Cartersville, who was reelected yesterday without opposition.
- Niles Francis, a political science and journalism student at Georgia Southern University and author of the Peach State Politics newsletter.
Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that! Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.
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AS ALWAYS, send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.
About the Authors
Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution's chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.
Tia Mitchell is the AJC’s Washington Bureau Chief and a co-host of the "Politically Georgia" podcast. She writes about Georgia’s congressional delegation, campaigns, elections and the impact that decisions made in D.C. have on residents of the Peach State.
Patricia Murphy is the AJC's senior political columnist. She was previously a nationally syndicated columnist for CQ Roll Call, national political reporter for the Daily Beast and Politics Daily, and wrote for The Washington Post and Garden & Gun. She graduated from Vanderbilt and holds a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.
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