Georgia’s race for governor took a dramatic turn last week when two of the most recognizable figures from the 2020 election jumped in — on opposite sides of the aisle.
Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, a one-time Republican rising star now running as a Democrat, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger share defining traits: GOP roots in Atlanta’s northern suburbs and a refusal to embrace Donald Trump’s election fraud claims.
Their stances five years ago changed the course of the state. And their decisions this week instantly reshaped the contest to succeed Gov. Brian Kemp, underscoring how much Georgia politics today remain tethered to the battles of 2020.
Raffensperger defied Trump’s demand to “find” enough votes to reverse his defeat, becoming a hero to many Democrats who crossed party lines to help reelect him in 2022 by the widest percentage margin of any statewide candidate.
But he stayed in the GOP, endorsed Trump’s 2024 comeback bid and embraced many of his policies, echoing MAGA talking points on “woke” Democrats and attacks on transgender rights as he launched his campaign.
Duncan took the opposite path. He brazenly criticized Trump after resisting a pressure campaign to block President Joe Biden’s victory, opting against another term, then endorsed the Democratic ticket in 2024. His formal switch to the Democratic Party this summer set the stage for a gubernatorial bid.
Now both are betting their name recognition, record of winning statewide elections, appeal to crossover voters and, in Raffensperger’s case, proven ability to survive Trump’s wrath will carry them through tough primary contests and a grueling November election.
While Raffensperger tests whether a Republican who crossed Trump can survive in a primary where loyalty to him is paramount, Duncan’s candidacy poses the inverse question: Can his vows to combat Trumpism win over liberals after a political career spent advancing GOP causes?
Their chief opponents, too, were forged by Biden’s razor-thin 2020 Georgia victory and the political firestorm that followed.
Credit: Abbey Cutrer/AJC
Credit: Abbey Cutrer/AJC
Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, the Trump-backed Republican, has wrapped himself in the president’s banner and made his record of pushing MAGA policies through the Georgia Senate central to his campaign. His campaign launch featured now-ascendant allies once punished by Duncan for backing Trump’s efforts to overturn his defeat.
The secretary of state also must contend with Attorney General Chris Carr, another more mainstream GOP contender who also won the 2022 election over Trump’s opposition. But Carr has avoided becoming the target of MAGA ire to the same extent as the secretary of state.
Duncan enters a Democratic field struggling with Trump’s return to power. All of them reject the president, though some, like former DeKalb CEO Michael Thurmond, are more outspoken in urging the party to adopt lessons from his victories.
His best-known rival might be former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who opted against running for a second term after years of polarizing battles with Trump’s allies over public safety and coronavirus limits, joining the Biden administration instead.
‘Got it wrong’
At the center of the upstart bids by Duncan and Raffensperger is a shared belief both can create space for Georgians disenchanted with Trump to break ranks. Richard McDaniel, a Democratic strategist, said Duncan could provide that sort of “permission structure” to GOP voters.
“These voters, who may have never seriously considered a Democrat before, now have a reason to take a hard look at the entire Democratic field,” he said. “And some of them just might find a candidate they can support.”
Lane Flynn, a former DeKalb County GOP chair, offered a similar perspective about Raffensperger’s bid. He expected a “tiny percentage of Republican voters who have convinced themselves they’re the majority” will angrily oppose him, but predicted Raffensperger could gain traction.
There are limits to those arguments. Although Democrats may praise Duncan for defying Trump, party leaders also question whether he can ever be forgiven for championing a long list of conservative priorities he now pledges to reverse.
In an interview on the AJC’s “Politically Georgia” podcast, Duncan said he “got it wrong” on issues that once defined him.
He stood beside Kemp in 2019 to sign Georgia’s anti-abortion law; now he says women “deserve the right to choose.” He opposed Medicaid expansion; now he backs it. He once embraced NRA-driven gun expansions; now he calls for universal background checks and other red-flag laws.
Above all, Duncan says he regrets backing Trump’s 2016 and 2020 bids, now casting him as the central villain of his campaign. His argument to his new Democratic friends: Only he can prevent a Trump-aligned Republican “puppet” from succeeding Kemp in November.
Raffensperger’s bid reflects a different calculation. He has no path to run as a “Never Trump” Republican in a state where the rebel movement has been snuffed out. His launch highlighted his embrace of Trump’s economic and immigration policies, a reminder of the president’s grip on GOP politics.
Raffensperger’s critics from both parties insist they won’t let him play both roles — the courageous Trump critic who also embraces the president’s agenda. Jones blasted him as a “Never Trump” traitor, while Democratic Party of Georgia Chair Charlie Bailey mocked him for “paying the price of admission to any 2026 GOP primary — fully embracing Donald Trump and his toxic agenda.”
Credit: C.J. Bartunek for the AJC
Credit: C.J. Bartunek for the AJC
The questions ahead are stark: Can Raffensperger persuade Republicans to back the man who once told Trump “no”? Can Duncan persuade Democrats to trust a recent convert who once pushed the very policies they fought against? How much will Trump himself weigh in, after branding Duncan a “total loser” and putting Raffensperger at the top of his revenge list?
The biggest wild card of all may be Stacey Abrams. The two-time Democratic nominee hasn’t ruled out another run, though she hasn’t taken any steps to prepare one. Would she really stay on the sidelines if Duncan gains traction?
What is certain is how unsettled this race remains. Even staunch Jones allies concede Raffensperger will be a formidable foe. And Democrats acknowledge Duncan as a legitimate contender, his journey to their party forged in the political fires of 2020.
“There aren’t enough voters for Democrats to win if we expect perfection from everyone,” said Cathy Woolard, a former Atlanta City Council president and Democratic mover and shaker. “He will have to make his case like everyone else, and we’d be smart to listen before making a selection.”
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