As U.S. engages Venezuela militarily, here’s how to separate fact from fiction

On Dec. 16, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social the rationale for U.S. actions in Venezuela. The post, which focuses mostly on Venezuelan oil, is hyperbolic and inaccurate on many points.

Nonetheless, a number of the President’s supporters, like Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., are repeating these arguments.

I was the U.S. ambassador to Venezuela from early 2002 to late 2004. Here is my attempt to separate fact from fiction in the President’s tweet.

Claim: Venezuela is completely surrounded by U.S. naval forces.

Charles Shapiro served as U.S. ambassador to Venezuela from 2002 to 2004. (Courtesy)

False. The country is not surrounded. Look at a map. U.S. Navy vessels are posted in the Caribbean across the north coast of Venezuela. But Venezuela, which is twice the size of California, has extensive land borders with Colombia and Brazil and a disputed border with Guyana.

False. The country is not surrounded. Look at a map. U.S. Navy vessels are posted in the Caribbean across the north coast of Venezuela. But Venezuela, which is twice the size of California, has extensive land borders with Colombia and Brazil and a disputed border with Guyana.

Claim: Venezuela must return oil, land and other assets stolen from us.

Claim: The Maduro Regime is illegitimate.

Correct. Nicolas Maduro lost the July 2024 presidential election by 38% and then stole the election. The Maduro-controlled electoral council simply published fictional nationwide results but refused to release the precinct-by-precinct results as required by Venezuelan law. Maduro is the leader of an illegal regime.

Claim: The Maduro regime is using oil from these stolen oil fields to finance themselves.

Basically true. The state of Venezuela owns the oil company, PDVSA; all oil revenue goes to the Venezuelan treasury.

Claim: The Maduro Regime is financing terrorism, drug smuggling and human trafficking.

• Terrorism: False. The Maduro government cooperates with Colombian guerrilla groups operating in Venezuela but I have seen no evidence that the Maduro government is financing the FARC or any other terrorist group.
• Drug smuggling: True-ish. Colombian cocaine is trafficked through Venezuela. Various elements of the Maduro government and the Venezuelan military profit from this traffic. However, the traffic in cocaine is not financed with oil revenue.
• Human trafficking: False. An estimated 8 million to 9 million Venezuelans have fled economic disaster and political oppression. That economic collapse is the result of the terrible economic policies of the Maduro regime, but there’s no evidence that the regime is charging people to transport them to the U.S. or anywhere else. While some Venezuelans have committed crimes in the U.S, there is no evidence that Maduro has “sent” criminals — or anyone else for that matter — to the U.S.

Here’s the question Americans should be asking

President Trump has sent us down multiple rabbit holes about fentanyl coming from Venezuela (according to the DEA National Drug Threat Assessment, fentanyl is not produced in Venezuela and no fentanyl comes to the U.S. from Venezuela), about blowing up speedboats transporting cocaine (extrajudicial executions of civilians), seizing sanctioned oil tankers (puts severe pressure on the Maduro regime’s finances but not directly on Maduro) and now the Venezuelan oil industry.

The only thing he hasn’t complained about is the number of Venezuelan baseball players in the big leagues.

Mr. Trump is muddying the waters. Drugs and oil are tangential issues. Nicolas Maduro is a dictator. “Regime change” should have occurred in July 2024 when the Venezuelan voters overwhelmingly voted for opposition candidate Edmundo González.

Here’s what we ought to be discussing right now: Do the American people want to use the U.S. military to force Maduro from the presidential palace?