Biden’s campaign believes it can win the presidency without Florida’s 29 electoral votes, but it wants to lock up the state to pad a margin of victory over Trump, who has for months questioned the legitimacy of an election where many people will cast mail-in ballots amid the pandemic. Biden has vowed to win Pennsylvania, but if he falls short, his path to victory narrows substantially.
Trump repeatedly seized on Biden’s suggestions during the Democratic presidential primary that he would work toward a world without fossil fuels. Biden has since said he will not ban fracking, but Trump and his campaign say Biden isn’t being truthful.
Trump narrowly flipped three Great Lakes states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — in 2016, and he has virtually no path to reelection without holding at least one of them. Amid the pandemic, aides have concluded Michigan is likely out of reach. They have long viewed Wisconsin as his best option.
But his deficit in Wisconsin remains stubborn. And campaign aides acknowledge that even winning that battleground will not provide the needed votes if Biden claims Florida or the traditionally red state of Arizona.
The president’s travel this week reflects that bind. He’s visiting the three battleground states he likely can’t win without — Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina — as well as states he once thought were in his grasp — Iowa and Georgia — but where he now needs to play defense in light of recent polling showing Biden improving.
Trump traveled to Pennsylvania twice in the week before he tested positive for the coronavirus. With 20 electoral votes, the state is anchored by large cities — Philadelphia to the east, Pittsburgh to the west. But the rest of Pennsylvania is largely rural, comprised of small cities and towns where Trump ran up the score four years ago. He will need to again, in even greater numbers, as his prospects have slipped since 2016 in vote-rich suburban Philadelphia, where he underperformed by past Republican measures.
That helps explain why Trump is holding a rally Tuesday at the airport in Johnstown in Cambria County, a historic coal and steel area that narrowly backed Barack Obama in 2008. But it has trended Republican for the last three decades and, in the 2016 election, Trump scored a 37 percentage-point victory. It is substantially whiter and has lower median incomes and lower rates of college-degree attainment than the rest of Pennsylvania.
Biden has also visited Johnstown, staging a drive-in rally at the train station while touring parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania by rail late last month. The former vice president has tried to cast himself as a champion of working-class voters while he accuses Trump of focusing on stock market returns and Park Avenue values. Biden says he would like to reduce Republican advantages in conservative areas, even if he cannot win them outright.
“If we just cut the margin, it makes a gigantic difference,” Biden said after his Johnstown rally. “A lot of white working-class Democrats thought we forgot them and didn’t pay attention.”
Despite the pandemic, Trump’s campaign has prioritized in-person events and aggressive door-knocking as it tries to turn out new and low propensity voters, including more members of the white working class who may have backed Democrats in the past but now favor the president.
Republicans point to an aging population and a shrinking voter-registration edge for Democrats, down 20% from 2016′s election to 717,000, according to the latest Pennsylvania data. The numbers also show that many more non-voting Democrats than Republicans fell off voter rolls in the last four years.