A new nationwide poll released Wednesday shows presumptive Democratic White House nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 50% to 36% in this fall’s general election.
The 14-point difference in the New York Times/Siena College poll is Biden's largest lead yet over Trump. Even though Trump has resumed live campaign events, Biden is ahead by 22 points among women; 3 points among men; 21 points among independents; and is either ahead of or tied in every age and ethnic group.
The telephone survey of 1,337 registered voters was conducted from June 17 to 22 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points. The Times sample contained 26% Republicans.
Trump's Saturday rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, was designed to show strength and enthusiasm heading into the critical final months before an election that will decide whether he remains in the White House. Instead, his Saturday rally was marred by media reports of lower-than-expected turnout.
Credit: AJC
A coordinated effort was underway on TikTok in the days leading up to Trump's rally, CNN reported, encouraging people to register online for the free event and not show up.
Trump’s political team spent days proclaiming that more than 1 million people had requested tickets. Instead, the city fire marshal’s office reported a crowd of just less than 6,200 in the 19,000-seat BOK Center. At least six staff members who helped set up the event tested positive for the coronavirus. Most of the attendees, including Trump, did not wear face masks as recommended by the Trump administration’s health experts.
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After the rally, the president berated aides about the turnout, according to The Associated Press. He fumed that he had been led to believe he would see huge crowds in deep-red Oklahoma, according to two White House and campaign officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about private conversations.
On the Democratic side, former President Barack Obama warned his party Tuesday against being “complacent or smug” about the presidential race at a grassroots fundraiser for Biden.
Referencing what he called a “great awakening” going on among younger Americans pushing for reforms, Obama said that “just because this energy is out there does not mean that it assures our victory and it does not mean that it gets channeled in a way that results in real change.”
“There’s a backlash, that is fierce, against change,” Obama added. The former president referenced the division among Americans he said Trump “exploits,” as well as new challenges to voting rights in recent years.
The fundraiser marked Obama’s official return to the presidential campaign trail and underscored his unmatched popularity within the Democratic Party. Biden, who appeared virtually alongside Obama at the event, said it raised a record-breaking $7.6 million from more than 175,000 individual donors.
Trump’s Dallas fundraiser earlier this month raised north of $10 million for the campaign, Republican National Committee and the Trump Victory Fund.
Tuesday’s event was a kickoff of what Obama’s team says will likely be a busy schedule heading into the fall, as he looks to help elect not just Biden but Democrats running for the House and Senate. And his comments suggest Democrats are taking very seriously the possibility their base could grow too comfortable this fall, with a number of state and nationwide surveys showing Biden with significant, often double-digit leads over Trump.
“There’s two groups of voters that Biden needs to move,” said Dan Pfeiffer, former White House communications director. “You have the 4 million Obama 2012 voters that sat out in ’16, Obama obviously has cachet with them. And you have to persuade some number of voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and either Trump or a third-party candidate in 2016, and Obama obviously is very, very high-performing with those as well.”
During Tuesday night’s fundraiser, Obama made a frequent pitch directly to young voters, telling them he was “hopeful” about the new energy for reform he has seen within the younger generation but warning them not to get discouraged with a political process he said “is always going to be slower” and “less satisfactory” than engaging with a social movement through public demonstrations.
Obama endorsed Biden with a video message in April but kept an otherwise low profile throughout the primary and largely avoided wading into national politics.
In recent weeks, however, he has reemerged publicly to speak out on policing and the civil unrest that followed George Floyd's death while in police custody in Minneapolis.
Some Democrats say that, in the wake of Floyd’s death, Obama’s voice as an advocate for Biden and a leader for the party is needed. “Biden doesn’t have the strongest record on criminal justice reform, so having Obama there is helpful in reinforcing that issue,” said Ben Tulchin, who polled for progressive Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign.
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Obama’s reemergence is not without risks for Biden. For Trump’s campaign, it offers an opportunity to resurface charges the Obama administration’s policies undermined the American middle class and U.S. interests abroad.
Credit: AJC
They believe the focus on Obama will help reinvigorate Trump’s base and remind waffling Trump voters — those considering voting for Biden or staying home — of their dissatisfaction with the prior administration. And they see a potential opportunity to drive a wedge between Biden and his base by resurfacing issues from the Obama administration — such as the high rate of deportations — that riled progressives during the Democratic primary.
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At a Students for Trump event Tuesday in Phoenix, Trump suggested Obama’s support for Biden was lukewarm. “It only took him how long, a year and a half to endorse?” Trump said, adding, “He wanted everybody to win but Joe.”
Biden’s embrace of Obama during the Democratic primary created some headaches for the former vice president within his own party as well.
Biden was criticized by some opponents as too focused on returning to the status quo of the Obama years when the progressive base of the party was clamoring for significant structural change.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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