The Latest: No clear winner in Israeli election, exit polls suggest, with Netanyahu’s fate uncertain

Israel’s election ended Tuesday with no clear winner, exit polls indicate, likely setting off weeks of jockeying before a leader is declared. Exit polls released by major Israeli TV stations suggest that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political bloc nor that of his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, secured the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

Israelis were voting in a tense national election widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership since the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the wars that have since shaken the Middle East.

Israelis vote for parties, which then form alliances to create a majority coalition. No single party has ever won a 61-seat majority in the 120-member parliament, known as the Knesset.

Opinion polls suggest a tight race, with no clear winner expected, setting the stage for weeks or even months of negotiations among around a dozen parties expected to win seats in the Knesset.

Here is the latest:

Some Netanyahu supporters said it took time for people to vote

Netanyahu supporter Sinai Elmashli said it was challenging at the start of today’s election because people weren’t voting.

“The people didn’t go out, they didn’t leave their houses,” he said. He said that changed throughout the day as more Likud supporters voted.

For some Eisenkot fans, hope springs eternal

Stela Avidan, 66, looked delighted as other Eisenkot supporters around her greeted the exit polls with whoops and hollers.

She pumped her fists in the air, an expression of elation on her face. Asked if she was hopeful, she answered simply: “Yes, yes, yes, yes.”

Ra’am voters embrace Jewish law enforcement official running on the party’s list

Yoav Segalovitz might seem an unlikely candidate for an Islamist party in Israel’s election. The 67-year-old former police investigator is Jewish, not Arab or Muslim, and a self-identified Zionist.

But it looks like Segalovitz is headed to Israel’s Knesset after high Arab turnout drove a strong showing for his party, Ra’am. At Ra’am’s election night party, he was the only candidate to address the jubilant crowd in Hebrew. Supporters applauded enthusiastically as he appealed for unity across all races and religions. “We are all Israelis,” he said.

Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas’ gamble that his voters would embrace Segalovitz rather than reject his candidacy appears to have paid off. Segalovitz and Abbas have said they hope presence of a Jewish candidate on Ra’am’s list could make it harder to dismiss Ra’am as they consider whether to include Arab-led slates in Israel’s next government.

Supporters of ‘The Pink Front’ celebrate early results

Anti-Netanyahu activists, part of a leftist organization called The Pink Front, celebrated the early exit poll results.

Some waded into a reflecting pool waving their trademark pink heart flags, while others toasted with sparkling wine that drenched their pink T-shirts.

Eisenkot says he is ready to form a government

Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the opposition bloc, said the election results pointed to a “complete lack of confidence” in Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition.

“I will act immediately to carry out the people’s mandate, replace Netanyahu’s government and form a Zionist government committed to military conscription as soon as possible,” Eisenkot said in a statement.

A former military chief, he made the issue of eliminating exemptions from military service for Ultra-Orthodox men central to his campaign.

No one party won the necessary 61-seat majority. It is not yet clear whether Eisenkot or Netanyahu, whose Likud party won more votes than any other party, will be tasked with forming the next government.

Atmosphere at Netanyahu’s party headquarters is uncertain

As initial poll results trickled in the atmosphere at Netanyahu’s party headquarters was uncertain.

The room of mostly media watched the Israeli news channels, as the few party supporters present said they felt Netanyahu had won and would be able to build a coalition.

“The coalition will be very strong,” said Golan Tsukrel a supporter.

Others held signs chanting Netanyahu’s name, draping themselves in flags with his face in it and kissing posters.

Jubilation at Eisenkot’s campaign event

As the first exit polls came in, a small group of Eisenkot voters watched a large screen at Eisenkot’s election campaign even and began jumping for joy.

They chanted “Eisenkot!” and waved flags as the jingle for Eisenkot’s party blared in the background. They hugged, some cried.

Center-left leader frames results as a victory for anti-Netanyahu bloc

Yair Golan, head of the Democrats, a center-left party that favors the establishment of a Palestinian state, said the election results amounted to the Israeli public having “fired Netanyahu’s government.”

The reality is more complicated. Netanyahu’s Likud party won more votes than any other party. But the bloc of parties running to unseat him, which includes Golan’s party, won more votes than the bloc of right-wing parties led by Netanyahu.

Still Golan framed the results as a victory for the opposition bloc.

“We are ready to work with all our partners, bridge the gaps and take responsibility,” he added in a statement. “The public has spoken. Now it’s our turn to do the work.”

Palestinian citizens of Israel ecstatic about early exit polls

Though exit polls showed no clear winner in Israel’s election, supporters of the small Arab-led party Ra’am erupted in celebration upon seeing them for the first time.

“MANSOUR! MANSOUR! MANSOUR!” supporters chanted as exit poll results appeared on a screen, applauding party leader Mansour Abbas at his election night event in Sakhnin.

The struggle to form a government could give Ra’am a kingmaker role as Netanyahu’s opponents try to assemble a parliamentary majority. Leading opposition figures have vowed not to partner with Arab-led parties like Ra’am. But Israeli politicians have reversed such pledges in the past to secure power.

Shock and disappointment at Otzma Yehudit party

There was stunned silence in the far right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) watch party in central Israel as results from the exit polls flashed across the screen, with most channels suggesting far-right Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir capturing around six or seven seats.

Activists had been hoping for numbers similar to or better than last elections, when Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist party together captured 14 seats.

“I have no words,” said Ran Levy, a Ben-Gvir activist since he was 18. “I hope they’re wrong, exit polls always change, but I know you also have to be realistic.”

No clear winner in Israeli election, exit polls suggest, as Netanyahu’s fate hangs in the balance

Israel’s election ended Tuesday with no clear winner, exit polls indicate, likely setting off weeks of jockeying before a leader is declared.

An inconclusive result would leave Israel in political limbo after the country’s first national election since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack. The vote served as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wartime leadership.

Exit polls released by major Israeli TV stations suggest that neither Netanyahu’s political bloc nor that of his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, secured the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

Like all surveys, exit polls are subject to potential error. Preliminary results are expected in the coming hours. Final results are expected in the coming days and may vary from the exit polls.

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The polls have closed

Polling stations across Israel have closed, despite a request by Netanyahu’s Likud and other right-wing parties to extend voting past the planned 10 p.m. cutoff.

The election has seen high turnout all day despite some inclement weather, and the parties have headed to campaign events to watch the results roll in.

Still, the country may not know who its next prime minister is for weeks or even months.

Joint List hopes high turnout will help unseat Netanyahu

Supporters of the Joint List of Arab parties were hopeful that high turnout in Arab-majority cities would help them win more seats in Israel’s Knesset.

Former lawmaker Osama Saadi applauded how turnout was high among both Jewish and Palestinian citizens of Israel. But he echoed appeals from right-wing parties for supporters not to let up. At an emergency news conference, he urged people to keep voting up to 10 p.m.

The Joint List has made opposing the war in Gaza and settlements in the occupied West Bank centerpieces to its campaign. Those positions that could alienate Jewish-led parties and make it more difficult to form a coalition with them.

But party leaders have signaled they would consider supporting a government led by Netanyahu’s opponents from outside if that support were needed to oust the veteran prime minister.

“Our people are determined to sweep out this government once and for all,” Saadi said.

Netanyahu frames election as a ‘war’ with polls soon to close

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed Israel’s election as a “war for our home” in the final half hour of voting.

He made a plea for voters to immediately head to the polls, claiming his right-wing coalition could lose control of the government if more supporters don’t turn out.

“Call your grandparents, your aunt and uncle, your neighbors. If someone hasn’t gone, tell them there’s still time,” he said in a video posted to social media.

The stakes are high for Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. The election results could secure him another term, or likely end his political career.

Main candidates’ headquarters are still mostly empty

Less than an hour before polls were set to close, Netanyahu’s Likud party headquarters was mostly empty.

Journalists streamed into a convention center in Jerusalem where the party will gather to watch the exit polls when the voting ends.

A large screen aired Netanyahu’s campaign ads on repeat including some that mocked journalists. Others showed Netanyahu with U.S President Donald Trump. Signs hung from the wall with the party’s name in Hebrew. With no Likud members or supporters, some journalists began interviewing other media.

The headquarters of Netanyahu’s main rival, Gadi Eisenkot. was similarly lacking a crowd.

Eisenkot makes appeal in final stretch of voting

Less than an hour before polls close, Netanyahu’s chief rival for control of the government, Gadi Eisenkot, urged voters in a statement to choose “enlistment over draft evasion.”

A former military chief of staff who lost his son and two nephews in the war in Gaza, Eisenkot has made the issue of the exemption from the military draft for ultra-Orthodox men a central issue in his campaign.

Eisenkot also called for “responsibility over evading responsibility,” a not at all subtle nod to Netanyahu offloading blame for Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attacks onto senior Israeli officials, rather than taking responsibility as prime minister for the deadliest day in Israel’s history.

Voter turnout remains high

The latest update from Israel’s Central Elections Committee puts voter turnout at 74.3% of eligible voters by 8 p.m. local time. That’s eight percentage points higher than at the same time in the previous election in 2022.

The elections have seen high turnout all day. In its update, the committee said the latest turnout figures were the highest since ones recorded at the same hour in 1988 elections.

One voter worries about high Arab turnout

One young voter, Michal Shiloh, was on the streets of Jerusalem helping to encourage last-minute voting for candidates like the far-right Bezalel Smotrich.

She and friends cheered for Netanyahu, but Shiloh acknowledged the high Arab voter turnout, “unfortunately.”

“We don’t want the government with the Arab people,” she said, reflecting a rightward shift among some younger Israelis.

Netanyahu’s bid to extend voting hours rejected

The request by Netanyahu’s Likud and other right-wing parties to extend voting past the planned 10 p.m. cutoff has been denied, Israel’s Central Elections Committee said.

The committee found “the current circumstances do not justify an extension.” It added that all voters in line at the polls by 10:00 p.m. would be able to cast their ballot.

“High nationwide turnout across all sectors of society reflects strong public engagement in the democratic process, and no need to extend voting hours was identified,” the committee said in a statement.

Netanyahu’s rivals said the request was an effort to lay the groundwork to challenge the election results later on.

New voter turnout update

Heading into the final hours of voting, Israel’s Central Elections Committee’s latest update shows nearly 67% of eligible voters cast their ballots by 6 p.m. local time. That’s the highest turnout by that point since at least 1973 and nine percentage points higher than at the same time during the last elections in 2022.

Voting is set to end at 10 p.m. local time.

Netanyahu asks to extend voting hours, rival says it’s a ploy to challenge results

Netanyahu’s party, Likud, has petitioned to extend voting hours past 10 p.m. His rival, Gadi Eisenkot, has come out opposing the bid.

“No exceptional incident has occurred that would justify granting this request, which is intended to lay the groundwork for allegations challenging the integrity of the election, continuing the lies Netanyahu has been spreading since this morning,” Eisenkot said in a statement.

A loss for Netanyahu could mean the end of his decades-long career. He is locked in a tight race with Eisenkot, his former military chief of staff.

Election Day is also a national holiday in Israel

Election Day is a national holiday in Israel, with schools, many businesses and government offices closed. Many Israelis took advantage of the mid-week vacation to barbecue with their families, hike, or hang out at the beach before threatening weather forced them inside.

More than 90,000 people visited the country’s national parks, according to Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority, though flooding in the south forced the closure of several popular parks. In Tel Aviv, people thronged to cafes and parks, and a few braved the blustery beach.

In Tel Aviv, one group of friends held a picnic and tried to recruit new members for their women’s beach footvolley team. “I really hope Bibi won’t get chosen again, that there will be real change, socially, economically, we deserve something different,” said Gal Elian, a 28-year-old architect from Tel Aviv, using a nickname for Netanyahu.

Although her whole family votes for Netanyahu, Elian said it was clear to her she needed to vote for whichever party could remove him from power.

Expert highlights higher turnout trends

Voter turnout has increased significantly in liberal strongholds and among voters in Arab-majority villages, according to official figures and expert Ofer Kenig.

That could spell trouble for Netanyahu’s coalition, explained Kenig, a research fellow at the Jerusalem-based think tank Israel Democracy Institute.

“The picture right now is looking encouraging for the bloc of change,” Kenig said, referring to the opposition parties. But he said Netanyahu has managed last minute upsets before.

Small parties could also be adversely impacted by the higher turnout, making it harder for them to pass an electoral threshold needed to enter parliament. If they don’t, the votes cast for them go to waste and the political bloc they are aligned with will lose out.

Former Knesset member suggests link between high turnout and anti-Netanyahu anger

Hanna Swaid, a Palestinian Christian from the Galilee and former Knesset member, said four years of simmering anger toward Netanyahu was pushing turnout to record levels among both Palestinian and Jewish citizens of Israel.

Palestinian citizens make up slightly more than one-fifth of Israel’s population, but their parties have never won proportional representation in the Knesset. Even if they don’t win one-fifth of seats, picking up several could be decisive in a tight race.

Questions about Arab voter turnout have long been both an important factor in election results and a political weapon to scare and mobilize right-wing voters, Swaid said.

“Palestinian citizens want to change things and kick out the extremist ministers,” he said, referring to National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. “The only way to do that in a democratic state — as far as you can still call Israel that — is elections.”

Weather could affect voter turnout, political scientist says

Almost all Israelis vote in person — unlike voters in some other countries that allow mail-in or absentee voting — so many are voting in the rain today. Israel’s meteorological service reported stormy weather was hitting parts of the country, warning that conditions could worsen into thunderstorms or flash floods in some parts of the country. Thunder rolled over Jerusalem Tuesday afternoon.

Studies show that voter turnout is driven primarily by other factors. But Florida State University political scientist Yusaku Horiuchi said research suggests rain can depress voter turnout in certain contexts.

“Even a relatively small weather-related turnout effect could matter,” Horiuchi, who has researched weather and voting patterns in the United States and Japan, said.

There is little evidence that rain consistently changes election outcomes, and weather’s impact likely depends on other context. But Horiuchi said it’s possible that bad weather could keep undecided or less politically engaged voters home.

Right-wing politicians visit Arab towns to warn supporters about high turnout

Right-wing parties had done little campaigning for votes in Arab-majority communities ahead of Israel’s election. But for some, that changed Tuesday.

Itamar Ben-Gvir of the Otzma Yehudit party and Orit Strock of the Religious Zionism party both visited Arab towns Tuesday to film videos warning their supporters about high turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.

“This mad rush must wake us up,” Strock said, standing behind policemen in the town of Rehat.

Ben-Gvir visited the northern Israeli town of Kafr Qasem to make a similar plea. Before Election Day, he had also filmed social media videos at the sites of Palestinian home demolitions in east Jerusalem, a shootout in the occupied West Bank and at Ofer Prison, where he boasted about the increasingly restrictive conditions Palestinian detainees have faced since he became national security minister in 2022.

“The voter turnout in the Arab sector is insane. Absolutely insane,” Ben-Gvir said in a video posted Tuesday afternoon, without providing evidence. “If you want this country to remain Jewish and Zionist … then get out and vote!”

Rare downpour dampens Jerusalem as results are awaited

The first downpour in months drenched Jerusalem in the evening, sending men in an ultra-Orthodox neighborhood under shelter.