AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Georgia on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff is defending his Senate seat Tuesday in one of the nation’s marquee races, while Republicans try to hold onto the governor’s mansion after two terms under departing GOP Gov. Brian Kemp.

Ossoff is the only Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2024. The seat would be a top prize for Republicans looking to offset possible losses in a midterm environment where the president’s party typically loses seats. Republicans can afford to lose no more than three of their 53 Senate seats and still maintain control with Vice President JD Vance casting tiebreaking votes.

Once thought out of reach for Democrats, control of the Senate is increasingly in play as Republican candidates in key contests lose support over disapproval of Trump’s handling of high prices and the war in Iran. The Georgia races have drawn Trump to GOP rallies in Dalton and Perry and former President Barack Obama to Atlanta.

Democratic fundraising trails the GOP nationally. Not in Georgia.

Two-term Rep. Mike Collins, from the conservative 10th Congressional District along the South Carolina border, was the top vote-getter in the five-candidate May 19 primary and then won the Republican nomination outright in a June 16 runoff against former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, 56% to 45%. Trump endorsed Collins for the runoff, while Kemp backed Dooley.

Ossoff, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, has eclipsed the Collins campaign in fundraising and spending. Ossoff has raised about $137 million as of Oct. 14, compared to about $11 million for Collins. Collins has received help from outside groups such as Republican Senate Leader John Thune’s Senate Leadership Fund PAC, but outside groups supporting Ossoff have far outspent those supporting Collins.

Georgia's next governor could have a key role in 2028

In the governor's race, Republican healthcare executive Rick Jackson and Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms are competing to succeed Kemp. Jackson received 53% of the June runoff vote, defeating Trump’s pick, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones.

Bottoms clinched the Democratic nomination in the May primary, receiving 56% of the vote in a field of seven.

The winner will be in office during the next presidential election campaign and could emerge as a key figure if Georgia remains as competitive as it was in 2020 and 2024. Trump blamed Kemp for refusing to help overturn his 2020 loss in Georgia to Democrat Joe Biden, but the two reached a détente in 2024 ahead of Trump’s reelection victory.

What to look for as Georgia's votes are counted

Georgia state law allows county elections officials to begin tabulating mail ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day. As a result, the first votes reported on election night will include many of these mail ballots as well as early in-person votes.

Overall, these ballots have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. This suggests that the Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in the initial vote reports after polls close, even though the race may tighten considerably as more Election Day votes are tabulated.

For example, in the 2024 presidential election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris took an 11-point lead as initial results were released shortly after polls closed, but Trump led by 27 points within the hour as in-person Election Day votes were tabulated. That lead then tightened steadily and he ended up besting Harris by about 2 percentage points when all votes were counted.

In statewide races, Republicans tend to perform best in the smaller, more rural counties in Georgia's northern, central and southeastern regions, while Democrats post their best numbers in the population centers of Atlanta, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah and Athens.

The Atlanta-area counties of Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb are the most populous in Georgia and form the core of the state’s Democratic stronghold.

If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a Dec. 1 runoff.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for Senate, House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, agriculture commissioner, insurance commissioner, state school superintendent, labor commissioner, public service commissioner, state Senate, state House and three statewide proposed constitutional amendments.

How many people voted in the last midterm election?

About 3.9 million votes were cast in the 2022 Senate race in Georgia.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 64% of the votes in the 2022 Senate race were cast early in-person or by mail.

The latest advance vote totals for Georgia can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker.

When are early and absentee votes released?

About four of every five counties are expected to release all or almost all of their early in-person and mail voting results in the first vote update of the night, before most counties release any in-person Election Day votes.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 general election, the AP reported the first results in Georgia at 7:04 p.m. ET, or four minutes after polls closed. About 90% of the total vote had been counted by 10:21 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 3:15 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.