AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Colorado's state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic voters in Colorado will decide in a state primary Tuesday which of two well-known statewide officeholders to nominate to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Jared Polis. Republicans will also choose a nominee for governor, while voters across the state will finalize general election matchups for U.S. Senate and U.S. House.

The Democratic gubernatorial primary between U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet and state Attorney General Phil Weiser will not only determine who might lead Colorado as President Donald Trump wages what Weiser has described as a “ revenge campaign ” against the state and its outgoing governor, but it could also create an opening in the closely divided U.S. Senate.

If Bennet wins the nomination and the general election, he would need to vacate his U.S. Senate seat, allowing the governor to name a replacement until the next general election in 2028. Bennet has said that he would hold his seat right up until taking office and appoint his own replacement, rather than allowing Polis to make the pick.

In a June 4 debate, Bennet said he would appoint a replacement under the age of 50. Of the four Democrats in Colorado’s congressional delegation, three are under 50: Jason Crow, Joe Neguse and Brittany Pettersen. All have endorsed Bennet.

One name Bennet already eliminated from consideration was Polis, saying his decision to commute the sentence of election conspiracy theorist and imprisoned former Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters was disqualifying. Peters’ conviction over her role in a security breach of county election equipment after the 2020 election became a rallying cry for Trump and his supporters.

If Weiser becomes governor, Bennet would serve out the remaining two years of his term, a scenario that has prompted some Weiser supporters to brandish bumper stickers that read “Weiser for governor! Bennet for Senate.”

This is the second office Bennet has sought while serving in the U.S. Senate. In 2019, he briefly sought the Democratic presidential nomination. This year, he is one of four sitting senators running for governor, which is the most in recent history.

The winner will face either state Rep. Scott Bottoms, state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer, or pastor and Marine Corps veteran Victor Marx as the Republican nominee. Marx leads the GOP field in fundraising, with about $2.8 million in contributions and about $200,000 in the bank heading into the campaign’s final 20-day stretch. Marx more than doubled Kirkmeyer’s and Bottoms’ combined totals in each category.

According to Colorado Secretary of State records, Marx is the beneficiary of more than $400,000 in spending on TV and digital advertising from outside groups supporting his campaign. He’s also the target of a several hundred-thousand-dollar ad campaign opposing him and supporting Kirkmeyer. Another group has spent a small amount on social media and email advertising opposing Marx and supporting Bottoms.

On the Democratic side, Weiser has raised about $6.5 million in contributions, compared to about $4.8 million for Bennet. Both candidates also have the backing of outside groups who have spent millions in support of their campaigns and against the other.

Democrats have won nine of the last 11 elections for Colorado governor and have held the office since 2007.

At the top of the ballot, first-term Democratic U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper faces a primary challenge from state Sen. Julie Gonzales. The winner will face Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley, who is unopposed in his primary.

One of the top U.S. House races to watch in November will be in the 8th Congressional District in the northern Denver suburbs, where Republican U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans seeks a second term. The Democratic nominee will be either former state Rep. Shannon Bird or state Rep. Manny Rutinel. The seat will be key to determining control of the chamber.

El Paso County and the city and county of Denver are the most populous jurisdictions in the state. Arapahoe, Jefferson, Adams and Douglas counties, which surround Denver, also have large populations, as do Larimer, Weld, Boulder, Pueblo and Mesa.

These 11 counties comprise about 87% of the state’s total registered voters and are critical sources of primary votes for both parties. However, Republican-leaning El Paso and Douglas counties tend to be more influential in Republican primaries, while heavily-Democratic Denver and Boulder counties tend to play a larger role in Democratic primaries.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7 p.m. MT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, secretary of state, attorney general, university regent, state Senate and state House.

Who gets to vote?

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in the Democratic, Republican or Unity Party primaries.

How many voters are there?

As of June 1, there were about 4.4 million registered voters in Colorado. That includes about 1.1 million registered Democrats, about 997,000 registered Republicans and about 2.3 million voters not affiliated with any party.

How many people actually vote?

In 2022, when Democratic incumbents were running for renomination for both U.S. Senate and governor, roughly 520,000 people voted in the Democratic primaries and about 633,000 in the Republican primaries.

In 2020, when there was a Republican incumbent U.S. Senator running for renomination, about 999,000 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary and about 555,000 in the Republican primary.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

Elections in Colorado are conducted predominantly by mail. As of Thursday, about 327,000 Democratic primary ballots and about 228,000 Republican primary ballots have already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

When are early and absentee votes released?

In most Colorado counties, the first vote update of the night tends to include a mix of results from mail, early in-person and Election Day in-person voting. Since Colorado elections are conducted primarily by mail, mail voting results are released throughout the night, along with results from other voting methods.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 state primary, the AP first reported results at 9:04 p.m. ET, or four minutes after polls closed. By 12 a.m. ET, about 79% of the vote had been counted. The last vote update of the night was at 4:05 a.m. ET with about 90% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

In Colorado, an automatic recount is triggered if the margin between the top two vote-getters is 0.5% or less of the leading candidate’s vote total. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.