Post-holiday layoffs push up jobless rate, but growth this year looks good

Metro Atlanta’s post-holiday layoff blues

I - Year

II - Jobs lost in January

III - Increase in unemployment rate

I………………II………………III

2005 — 26,126 — 0.4

2006 — 30,616 — 0.2

2007 — 15,768 — 0.3

2008 — 26,430 — 0.3

2009 — 36,262 — 0.9

2010 — 17,177 — 0.4

2011 — 28,182 — 0.3

2012 — 26,803 — 0.2

2013 — 10,676 — 0.3

2014 — 39,700 — 0.4

Sources: Georgia Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The metro Atlanta jobless rate rose as expected in January, but economists say the labor market will continue to bounce back from Great Recession lows.

The region’s unemployment rate, which is not adjusted for seasonal changes, rises every year because of post-holiday layoffs. In January, it increased to 7.2 percent from 6.8 percent in December, according to the state Labor Department. Still economists predict a year of solid growth in jobs, with a slow decline in the unemployment rate as a range of sectors add workers.

In January 2013, the rate was 8.8 percent, and since then, the economy has added 58,600 jobs.

“Those jobs are across most of the major sectors that we track,” said Mark Butler, state Labor Commissioner. “As a matter of fact, the only sector that has lost jobs over the 12 months has been government.”

Still, despite several years of modest growth, the economy is still 88,000 jobs short of where it was at the start of the recession more than six years ago.

So, while there is hiring in many sectors, there are also deep pools of unemployed applicants. And a near-record proportion of those people have been in the job search a long time: more than 45 percent statewide.

Metro Atlanta lost roughly 39,700 jobs in January, most of them seasonal positions, Butler said. That was fewer than the average January loss of 44,500 jobs for the previous five years.

The brightening picture has not yet made a difference for the long-term jobless, said Tom Spencer of Alpharetta.

“In my opinion, the system is broken,” said Spencer, who has been out of work and searching for a marketing job for nearly two years. “The economy is improving, but I don’t have faith in the unemployment number. It doesn’t count people who have given up looking.”

Spencer has struggled to get his resume past the automated vetting that most employers use. When he does get past that first line, he has to weave through phone screeners who often don’t seem to know much about the job he’s applying for.

“It is pretty competitive,” he said. “I think a lot of companies feel they can get similar talent for less money.”

Economists have been predicting that 2014 will be a year of solid, if unspectacular, job growth. The area will add 68,000 jobs, said Jeff Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia. “That is faster growth than what I expect for the state or for the U.S. overall.”

Prospects for metro Atlanta have brightened for several reasons, Humphreys said:

• The housing recovery matters more here than elsewhere.

• Population shifts are again bringing people to town.

• New technologies in sectors like health care and mobility are doing well here.

• The region is not very vulnerable to expected federal cuts, he said.

Roger Tutterow, economist at Mercer University’s Stetson School, said he thinks the region has a shot at matching its pre-recession job level later this year.

“Job growth is becoming more balanced,” he said. “Probably we’ll see state and local government – which has been a drag on growth – will probably stop being such an albatross.”

This has been the slowest post-recession recovery on record.

With so many people looking, employers can be selective about who they hire – and frugal about how much they pay.