First, job seekers, the optimist point of view: Those 200,000 jobs Atlanta lost since the recession began in 2007 will return -- by the end of 2014.
Want another perspective? Try 2015. Or 2016.
If recovery wasn't tough enough for the metro Atlanta area -- one of the nation's hardest hit for job losses -- a national report and local economists can't seem to agree on when employment normalcy will return.
On Monday, a national report prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors said the region won't return to pre-recession employment levels for three more years, slower than what's projected for comparable cities nationwide. .
As sobering as that is, local economists insist it likely will take longer than that, with jobs unable to bounce back until 2015 or 2016 -- making for a lost decade for workers.
"I would call that optimistic," Jeff Humphreys, , said of the report's 2014 projection.
The metro Atlanta area and the state overall will lag behind others largely because of the bottoming out of the construction industry, which helped fuel the region's growth, Humphreys said.
The Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta metro market, the report showed, reached its pre-recession employment peak in the third quarter of 2007, then lost 218,000 jobs, for an 8.9 percent decline. Projections are employment won't fully recover until the fourth quarter of 2014.
Atlanta's decline was more severe than all but a handful of the biggest cities: Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Detroit and Miami. On average, metro areas nationwide experienced a 6.2 percent employment decline since the pre-recession peak, with recovery projected by the second quarter of 2014.
Some markets are expected to regain jobs far more quickly, according to the report. Washington will fully recover by the third quarter of this year, after losing 2.5 percent of its jobs. Pittsburgh will be back by the first quarter of 2012, making up 3.3 percent of its employment. Houston will recover by the fourth quarter of this year, having lost 4.1 percent of its jobs since the pre-recession peak.
In Atlanta, however, the situation is less promising. "This is a slow-go recovery," said Humphreys, who believes that 2016 is more a reasonable recovery date.
Rajeev , said the local economy will recover by the fourth quarter of 2015 -- providing international concerns involving oil prices and economic problems in Greece don't significantly compound the issue over the next year.
Even though the local economy is diversifying into areas such as transportation, logistics and life sciences, the construction fallout remains a looming obstacle.
"The reason [Atlanta] is different is its dependence on construction; that's driving Atlanta's poor performance," said Jim Diffley, senior director at IHS Global Insight, the firm that compiled the report.
Metro Atlanta also fared poorly in gross metropolitan product -- the value of goods and services produced locally -- showing a decline from 2007 to 2010, according to the national report. It was the only one of the top 10 U.S. metro markets to experience a decrease.
"For people who are thinking, wake me up when this is over, it's going to be a long time," said Mark Vitner, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo. "We've got a lot of work to do to get back on track."
How we compare
● Pittsburgh: Lost 3.3 percent of its jobs during the recession; expected to rebound early next year.
● Houston: Lost 4.1 percent of its jobs; should recover by the end of this year.
● Washington: Lost 2.5 percent of its jobs; could recover as early as the third quarter of this year.
● Metro Atlanta: Lost 8.9 percent of its jobs; won’t fully recover until the end of 2014 – at the earliest.
Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors
Peak predictions
How long before employment levels are expected to return to what it was at the pre-recession peak? A bit longer for metro Atlanta than some other major areas, but not as long as some other Georgia metros.
Other Georgia communities
* Timing of the pre-recession peak varies by metro area, depending on their economies.
