The first set of NFL over/under win totals have been released by Sin City and the Falcons are expected to take a slight step back. Kinda, sorta.
The South Point casino in Las Vegas projects the Falcons will win 10 games in the 2017 regular season, which would represent a slight drop from last year's 11-5 record. Given the apparent difficulty of their schedule --- which includes home games against Green Bay and Dallas, road games at New England and Seattle and two games against likely improved Carolina in the NFC South – a record of 10-6 seems reasonable.
But 10 wins would enable the Falcons to win consecutive division titles for the first time in franchise history, if the other projections are realized. The Falcons never won two straight NFC West titles before realignment in 2002, nor have they won the South in consecutive seasons. Only Carolina has done it, with three straight (2013-15).
The South Point’s over/unders in the NFC South this season are: Falcons at 10, Carolina at 9, New Orleans at 8.5 and Tampa Bay at 8.
Worth noting: Las Vegas sportsbooks largely whiffed on division win totals last season. The 2016 over/unders were Carolina 10.5 (under, won 6), Falcons 7.5 (over, won 11), New Orleans 7.5 (under, won 7) and Tampa Bay 7.5 (over, won 9).
I think they’ve got it right this season. The Panthers should be improved, and the Saints and Bucs look like 8-8 teams. Injuries can change things in a hurry.
The projected 10 wins rank tied for second in the NFC with Green Bay, behind only Seattle (10.5), which plays in the weak West. New England has the highest win projected win total at 11.
Here is the complete list of over/unders, arranged by division:
- NFC East Dallas Cowboys 9.5 New York Giants 9 Philadelphia Eagles 8.5 Washington Redskins 7.5
- NFC North Green Bay Packers 10 Minnesota Vikings 8.5 Detroit Lions 8 Chicago Bears 5
- NFC South Atlanta Falcons 10 Carolina Panthers 9 New Orleans Saints 8.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8
- NFC West Seattle Seahawks 10.5 Arizona Cardinals 7.5 Los Angeles Rams 5.5 San Francisco 49ers 4.5
- AFC East New England Patriots 11 Miami Dolphins 7.5 Buffalo Bills 6 New York Jets 5.5
- AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 Baltimore Ravens 9.5 Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 Cleveland Browns 4
- AFC South Tennessee Titans 9.5 Indianapolis Colts 9 Houston Texans 8.5 Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5
- AFC West Oakland Raiders 9.5 Kansas City Chiefs 9 Denver Broncos 8.5 Los Angeles Chargers 7.5
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