Not much suspense at the top of the region standings entering the final week of the regular season. Regions 2 through 8 have crowned their region champions and passed out their No. 1 seeds.
Region 1, on the other hand, will do that this weekend (or maybe next week, see below), and all signs point to Colquitt County. The No. 1-ranked Packers can clinch the title with a victory against Lowndes on Friday night.
If Lowndes wins, it might get complicated because of region tiebreaker rules that are a little sketchy. The Vikings might have to win by 15 to win the title. Or 33. It depends.
Read the tiebreaker: ‘’When multiple teams are tied, the next consideration is the number of points allowed versus other teams in the playoff positions including teams tied for playoff positions. The team that allows the fewest points in this scenario is awarded the seed for which they are tied.’’
OK, so what are ‘’teams in the playoff positions”?
Remember that Region 1 is guaranteed only three playoff spots, so only three teams will be ‘’in the playoff positions’’ if Lowndes and Tift win on Friday, right?
That’s where it gets confusing. Region 1’s fourth-place team might get the GHSA’s at-large playoff berth. And that won’t be decided officially until next week.
According to Danny Renshaw, Region 1’s secretary, the tiebreaker would include games against all playoff teams – even the at-large qualifier.
So, if Lowndes beats Colquitt by 15 points or more, Lowndes is the region champion – unless Tift beats Camden County, and then Camden gets the at-large bid next week.
If Camden is the at-large team, Lowndes needs to win by 33 points, while holding Colquitt to 14 points fewer than Tift holds Camden County. That’s if our math and logic are correct. And we’re told this morning that the region will meet next week to consider a cleaner way to break three-way ties going forward.
Below is a look at how the seeds are shaking out. If you want to study things further, check out the GHSFHA's region standings page for Class AAAAAAA.
Region 1 – If Colquitt beats Lowndes, and Tift beats Camden, the seeds will be No. 1 Colquitt, No. 2 Tift, No. 3 Lowndes, with Camden getting the at-large (probably). What if Camden wins and there's a three-way tie for second? it's points allowed in region play, and the current totals are Colquitt (16 allowed), Lowndes (48), Tift (62) and Camden (66).
Region 2 – Westlake (7-2, 4-0) is No. 1. Newnan (5-4, 3-1) and East Coweta (3-6, 3-1) play Friday for second place, and Wheeler (6-3, 1-3) and Pebblebrook (3-6, 1-3) play for the fourth and final playoff berth.
Region 3 – Fourth-ranked Hillgrove is No. 1, and Marietta No. 2. North Paulding (7-2, 2-2) and McEachern (6-3, 2-2) play for third and fourth next week. North Cobb (6-3, 1-3) will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2010 unless it gets the wild card, which seems to favor the Region 1's fourth-place finisher.
Region 4 – Roswell (8-1, 4-0) is No. 1. Walton (8-1, 3-1) is No. 2. It will be Cherokee (4-5, 2-2) in the No. 3 hole and Etowah (4-5, 2-2) in fourth unless there's a big upset this week. All three region games have favorites of 20+ points, according to the Maxwell Ratings, including Etowah over Lassiter.
Region 5 – Milton (7-2, 4-0) is No. 1. The other playoff teams will be West Forsyth (4-5, 3-1), Forsyth Central (6-3, 2-2) and South Forsyth (5-4, 2-2), but the order is uncertain.
Region 6 – North Gwinnett (8-2, 6-0) is No. 1. Mill Creek (6-3, 4-1) will be the No. 2 seed if the Hawks can beat Collins Hill (3-6, 3-2) next week. Collins Hill, Mountain View (6-3, 3-2) and Duluth (4-5, 2-3) are contending for the final two berths. Expect this: No. 1 North Gwinnett, No. 2 Mill Creek, No. 3 Mountain View, No. 4 Collins Hill.
Region 7 – Parkview (9-0, 5-0) is No. 1. Barring upsets, expect No. 2 Norcross, No. 3 Brookwood and No. 4 Central Gwinnett.
Region 8 –Likely finish: No. 1 Grayson, No. 2 Archer, No. 3 Newton, No. 4 South Gwinnett. Rockdale could muddy things with an upset of Newton.
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