At least a quarter of the state's top-10 high school football teams can expect to be dismissed this weekend when the Georgia High School state playoffs reach the second round.
There are 17 games between ranked teams. Here's a closer look at the round-of-16 and the weekend's 64 games that will reach each corner of the state from Chatsworth to Clayton to Waycross to Pelham.
*What's happened so far: The first round went largely as predicted as even a computer model, the Maxwell Ratings, forecast 94 of 112 games correctly, and half the misses were projected to be one-touchdown games or closer. Only four ranked teams are out - No. 10 Southwest DeKalb (AAAAA), No. 8 Denmark (AAAA), No. 10 Westminster (AAA) and No. 8 Bleckley County (AA). Defending champions Bainbridge (AAAAA) and Heard County (AA) are gone. Both entered unranked. The teams to beat, all ranked No. 1, remain Lowndes (AAAAAAA), Dacula (AAAAAA), Carrollton (AAAAA), Cartersville (AAAA), Peach County (AAA), Rockmart (AA), Athens Academy (A Private) and Irwin County (A Public).
*Best second-round game: Colquitt County at Parkview. Colquitt, ranked No. 3 in AAAAAAA, has reached the quarterfinals or better (winning state titles in 2014 and 2015) each season since 2009 but must defeat No. 7 Parkview on the road to sustain it. In a statistic that defines its remarkable run, Colquitt has won five consecutive road playoff games against top-10 teams and is 11-4 against them since 2009. This will be the first such matchup for new coach Justin Rogers, who replaced dynasty-builder Rush Propst, who was fired in the offseason.
*Other top matchups: Milton is the defending champion in AAAAAAA. Marietta was the preseason No. 1. They're playing at Milton. ... ELCA (116) and Prince Avenue Christian (105) have more victories this decade than any others in Class A. They're playing at ELCA. ... No. 1 Peach County is home against Calhoun in a rematch of the 2017 AAA championship game and 2018 semifinal. Calhoun has won 11 consecutive second-round games but is the underdog in this one. ... Warner Robins and Rome also have met each of the past two seasons, with Rome winning the 2017 AAAAA finals and Warner Robins winning in the 2018 semifinals. They're playing at Warner Robins. ... Buford ranks first and Ware County fifth this century in victories among current AAAAA schools, but they are meeting for the first time in a game that the Maxwell Ratings rates as a complete tossup. Buford has won 19 consecutive second-round games but must win in Waycross to keep that going.
*Top players: Seven of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's preseason Super 11 are still playing. They are LB Sergio Allen of Peach County, DE Will Anderson of Dutchtown, QB Harrison Bailey and TE Arik Gilbert of Marietta, RB Tank Bigsby of Callaway, OL Tate Ratledge of Darlington and OL Paul Tchio of Milton. All play for top-10 teams. The consensus top 40 senior prospects made the playoffs, and 29 remain.
*Newcomers: Union County and Madison County, schools that have played football for more than 50 years, won state-playoff games for the first time last week. So did Johns Creek and St. Francis, which started football teams this century. Breaking droughts were Riverwood (last won in 2001), Metter (2003), North Forsyth (2005), Perry (2007) and Warren County (2007).
*What's next: The quarterfinals will mark the first time that region champions can face each other. Any time that same-seeded teams meet, the lower team on the bracket will be the home team. That was determined Thursday with a universal coin flip at the GHSA's offices in Thomaston. If the second round plays out as seeded, the quarterfinals will have No. 4 Grayson at No. 1 Lowndes and No. 5 North Gwinnett at No. 2 McEachern in AAAAAAA, No. 1 Dacula at No. 3 Lee County in AAAAAA, No. 2 Woodward Academy at No. 1 Cartersville in AAAA and No. 1 Peach County at No. 2 Cedar Grove in AAA.
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