Region 1-AAAAAA has at least a 50-50 shot of bringing home the state championship in the second-highest classification for the third year in a row.
Lee County and Northside-Warner Robins, the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds from the region, make up half of the final four teams that will play this weekend. But standing in the way are two teams from Region 8 – Dacula and Lanier – which also has a 50-50 shot at the title.
Region 1’s odds might be better than 50-50, however, considering how much of an overwhelming favorite defending champion Lee County is. The Trojans are 33-point favorites over Lanier this week, according to the computer Maxwell Ratings. They beat Northside 24-7 during the regular season, the same week that their town of Leesburg was devastated by Hurricane Michael. And then there’s Dacula, which is projected as one point better than Northside.
Valdosta (Region 1), which was eliminated by Dacula last week, won the championship in 2016.
Here’s a look at this week’s Class AAAAAA semifinals:
Northside-Warner Robins at Dacula
When, where: 7:30 p.m. Friday, Barron Field, Dacula
Records, rankings: Northside is 8-5, the No. 3 seed from Region 1-AAAAAA and No. 5; Dacula is 11-2, the No. 1 seed from 8-AAAAAA and No. 8.
Last meeting: Northside won 21-3 in the 2001 Class AAAAA quarterfinals.
Things to know: Northside, the only team remaining in any classification that finished lower than second place in its region or subregion, is making its ninth semifinal appearance in 14 seasons. QB Jadin Daniels runs the show for the Eagles. He has passed for 1,503 yards, rushed for 1,502 yards (best in Region 1) and been responsible for 30 touchdowns. He attempted a season-low four passes in a 30-6 victory over Sequoyah last week but ran for 135 yards on 11 carries. Eric Smith has rushed for 705 yards and 11 touchdowns, and Daniel Neal has 568 receiving yards on 33 catches. Dacula is in the semifinals for the first time since 2005 (fourth time overall) and seeking its first trip to the championship game. The Falcons played the 600th game in school history last week, outscoring Valdosta 43-7 in the second half of a 56-21 victory (Valdosta beat Northside 46-44 in the regular season). Jarrett Jenkins has passed for 1,893 yards this season, and Trenton Jones has run for 1,323. Jalen Perry, an AJC Super 11 pick who recently committed to Michigan as a defensive back, has 332 yards rushing and 260 yards receiving.
Maxwell Ratings' projection: Dacula by 1
Lanier at Lee County
When, where: 7:30 p.m. Friday, Trojan Field, Leesburg
Records, rankings: Lanier is 10-3, the No. 2 seed from Region 8-AAAAAA and unranked; Lee County is 13-0, the No. 1 seed from 1-AAAAAA and No. 1.
Last meeting: This is the teams' first meeting.
Things to know: Lanier is in the semifinals for the first time in the program's nine-year history. The Longhorns are led by QB Nick Calzada and RB Taj Barnes. Calzada, a Texas A&M commit, missed about a month with an injury early in the season, a stretch in which Lanier suffered two of its three losses. He passed for 113 yards and a touchdown and scored on a 17-yard run in a 27-7 victory over Coffee last week. Barnes has rushed for 1,145 yards this season, 387 in the playoffs, and had a season-high 191 in a second-round victory over Harrison. Defending state champion Lee County put up 466 yards of offense in a 42-20 victory over previously unbeaten Creekview last week, but the story for the Trojans is the defense, which has allowed a state-best 5.38 points per game. Four-star defensive back recruit Jammie Robinson, a transfer from Crisp County, has been a key addition to the unit. He had a 30-yard interception return for a touchdown last week. QB Kyle Toole was the No. 2 passer in Region 1 during the regular season, throwing for 1,935 yards and 25 TDs.
Maxwell Ratings' projection: Lee County by 33
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