More top-10 teams have a decent chance of getting beat this week in Class AAAAAAA than at any time we’ll see until the playoffs.
Six games involving AAAAAAA teams made GHSF Daily’s ‘’10 Best Games’’ this week. Those capsules are repeated below – No. 1 Colquitt County at No. 3 Grayson, No. 6 Milton at No. 4 Parkview, No. 5 Roswell at undefeated Wheeler, Buford at No. 8 Archer, No. 10 Marietta at St. John’s of D.C., and Lowndes at Valdosta.
There’s a seventh game that should be mentioned alongside those. It’s South Forsyth (3-1) at Hillgrove (4-0). South Forsyth won Region 5 last season. Hillgrove won Region 3. South Forsyth has lost only to Class AAAA death star Blessed Trinity but has won its other games handily and joins Milton as the teams to beat in its region. Hillgrove has won its four games comfortably, with no game closer than 17 points. The computer Maxwell Ratings favor Hillgrove by eight.
So let’s add this up – nine of the top-12 teams in the GHSF Daily Composite Poll are putting themselves at high risk this weekend.
That’s no insult to the others, which are No. 2 Walton vs. Newnan, No. 7 North Gwinnett vs. Discovery, and No. 9 McEachern plays vs. East Coweta. Each is a 25-point favorite or more, per Maxwell, but on any give Friday night, who knows.
Buford at Archer (Maxwell Ratings favor Buford by 2)
This game marks the first time that Buford, a city school in Gwinnett County, has enticed a prominent Gwinnett program to get on its schedule since 2005, when the Wolves completed a home-and-home series with Central Gwinnett. Buford is a power-running team led by Division I recruits Derrian Brown (89 carries, 688 yard, 10 touchdowns) and Elijah Turner (32-316-3). AJC Super 11 OL Harry Miller is one of several beefy D-I recruits on the offensive line. Buford is outrushing its opponents 296 to 57 yards per game. Archer is more of a passing team. Junior QB Carter Peevy (58-of-85 for 792 yards, 14 touchdowns) has come into his own in his third season as a starter. Speedy WR Braylen Weems has 24 catches for 352 yard and seven touchdowns. Archer has bounced back from an opening loss to Milton to clobber former top-10 teams Norcross 42-0 and Mill Creek 37-0, allowing just 109.0 yards total offense per game in those wins. Archer has won five of its last six games against ranked opponents.
Colquitt County at Grayson (Maxwell favors Colquitt by 6)
These programs have played four times since 2010, each winning twice. Colquitt won in the 2010 semifinals and 2013 Corky Kell Classic. Grayson won in the 2011 semifinals and 2016 quarterfinals. This will be the fifth consecutive ranked opponent that Colquitt has faced, and the most formidable, as Grayson has 10 major-college senior prospects. The Packers have beaten their first five opponents by an average of 44-10. They have averaged 202.4 yards rushing and 170.6 passing. Daijun Edwards has rushed for 601 yards and 11 touchdowns. Colquitt had eight sacks against Warner Robins last week. Grayson, which has lost only to nationally ranked Bergen Catholic of New Jersey, runs a balanced offense despite the early-season loss of blue-chip RB prospect Ronald Thompkins Jr. Jonathan Halyard has stepped up to rush for 489 yards. J'Kori Jones has passed for 688 yards, rushed for 101 and committed only one turnover. WR Kenyon Jackson (Texas A&M commit) has a TD reception in every game, including two last week covering 60 and 31 yards against Westlake. Five-star LB Owen Pappoe (Auburn commit) has a team-leading 26 solo tackles and five tackles for losses.
Lowndes at Valdosta (Maxwell favors Lowndes by 12)
Valdosta leads the Winnersville Classic 37-19, but the series has swung in Lowndes' favor in recent years, with the Vikings winning 10 of the past 14 meetings. Last year's game was the most lopsided Lowndes victory in the series. Lowndes is a run-first team that averages 269.6 yards per game rushing and 140.0 passing. Travis Tisdale (64 carries, 683 yards, 10 touchdowns) is the leading rusher in Region 1-AAAAAAA, and Jacurri Brown (34-295-3) is fourth. QB Andrew Koeneman is 45-of-71 passing for 602 yards and six TDs, and the top receiver is Ty Simms (16-254-3). Lowndes' 243 points scored this season are second in the state, trailing only Class AAAA Mary Persons (245). Valdosta gets two-thirds of its offense from the passing game (240.5 yards passing, 120.8 rushing). Tate Rodemaker is the leading passer in 1-AAAAAA, completing 82 of 119 attempts for 989 yards and eight TDs. WR Aalah Brown leads the region in receiving yardage (287) and has three TDs on 23 catches. Rajaez Mosley has run for 423 yards on 60 carries. Valdosta is 0-2 this season against Tift County (0-2) and Colquitt County (48-13), which are in the same region as Lowndes.
Marietta at St. John’s (no Maxwell projection)
Marietta has played as many nationally ranked teams as any program in the country this year, and St. John's College might be the toughest foe yet. The Cadets have seven senior recruits rated three stars or better. They defeated Central of Miami 37-34 in five overtimes in their last game Sept. 8. Rakim Jarrett, a top-50 national recruit among juniors, caught a 25-yard TD pass from Sol-Jay Maiava, who has offers from Brigham Young and Michigan. Marietta's own QB/WR duo of Harrison Bailey and Ramel Keyton will go down as one of the most prolific in Georgia history. Bailey has thrown for 6,004 yards (99 yards short of Anthony Jennings' school record) and 57 touchdowns (two short of Jennings' record) in his 25-game career. Keyton (Tennessee commit) has 3,201 yards receiving and 33 touchdowns. Bailey has another outstanding target, five-star junior TE prospect Arik Gilbert, who has 37 catches (9.3 per game) for 460 yards. Marietta averages 351.5 yards passing against a gantlet that includes nationally ranked Grayson, Rome and Good Counsel of Maryland.
Milton at Parkview (Maxwell favors Parkview by 9)
Both programs are having breakout seasons and emerging as the teams to beat in their regions. Milton last won a region title in 2014, Parkview in 2004. Milton is ranked for the first time since 2014 with a 3-1 start that includes a victory over No. 8 Archer and a loss to No. 5 Roswell, both in tight games. Milton QB Jordan Yates, a Georgia Tech pledge, has thrown for 607 yards and rushed for 182 and leads a balanced offense. One of Milton's best all-around players is MLB/RB Jordan Davis, who has a team-leading 41 tackles and 168 rushing yards on 22 carries. DB Joe Charleston (24 tackles) is committed to Clemson. Milton has been much tougher against the run (96.0 yards per game) than the pass (175.8). And Parkview, sitting at its highest state ranking since 2005, is a good passing team behind efficient junior QB Jordan Williams (42-of-60 for 589 yards, five touchdowns, zero interceptions). WR Malik Washington, a preseason all-state pick, has 20 receptions for 227 yards in three games. Junior MLB Kobe Wilson has been the monster of Parkview's front seven. He has a team-leading 23 solo tackles, five for losses, three sacks and three forced fumbles.
Roswell at Wheeler (Maxwell favors Roswell by 17)
These are two of the most-improved teams in Class AAAAAAA - Wheeler was 3-7 in 2017, Roswell was 3-8 - and this is the only matchup this week between two undefeated teams in the highest classification. Roswell averages 202 yards passing and 162.5 rushing. QB Ethan Roberts is 49-of-82 passing for 805 yards and eight touchdowns and is the second-leading rusher with 122 yards. Kamonty Jett has rushed for 393 yards and four TDs on 81 carries, and he scored the game-winning touchdown on an 8-yard reception with five seconds remaining in a 22-20 upset of then-No. 3 Milton last week. Juniors Jacob Jarrett (15-301) and John Copenhaver (15-290) are the leading receivers. Wheeler, which started the year 3-0 last season but lost its final seven games, outgained Lassiter 452-88 last week in a 35-10 victory that moved the Wildcats to 4-0 for the first time since 1993. Wheeler has a rusher, passer and receiver among the top five in unofficial Cobb County stats. Quarius Smith has rushed for 543 yards and has three consecutive 100-yard games. QB C.J. Ogbonna averages 202.3 yards passing, and WR Ricky White averages 106 yards receiving.
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