Sports

Maxwell Week 5 Summary: Stephenson makes statement in Class AAAAA

By Loren Maxwell
Sept 22, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- Stephenson routed Creekside 49-12, handing the previously #2 ranked Seminoles their worst loss since 2008.  The Jaguars jumped 8 spots in the Class AAAAA ranking up to #3 while Creekside falls to #7.  However, the game may not be the final word on the season.  The Monte Carlo simulation says there is a 36% the two will meet again in a region play-in game and a 4.3% chance they will see each other in the playoffs.

- Collins Hill notched their first win of the season, unexpectedly over North Gwinnett by a surprising four touchdowns. This drags the Bulldogs down to #16 in Class AAAAAA and drops their record to 2-2 for their worst opening season since 2002 and the worst ever with Bob Sphire at the helm.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 27.09%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 734 of 790 total games including 1 tie(s) (92.97%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.12 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 0.62

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 5-0 100.55 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 4-0 79.83
2 Grayson 4-0 93.01 2 Ware County 4-0 79.19
3 McEachern 3-1 89.16 3 Stephenson 3-1 77.99
4 Archer 2-1 88.32 4 Mays 4-0 74.07
5 Mill Creek 4-0 88.13 5 Coffee 3-1 73.80
6 Peachtree Ridge 2-2 83.06 6 Allatoona 4-1 72.97
7 Walton 5-0 82.49 7 Creekside 4-1 72.89
8 Norcross 4-0 82.11 8 Stockbridge 4-0 72.09
9 Roswell 3-0 80.94 9 Houston County 4-0 69.96
10 Dacula 3-1 78.62 10 Gainesville 2-1 69.81
11 Tucker 2-2 78.45 11 South Paulding 3-1 69.04
12 Camden County 5-0 76.81 12 East Paulding 2-1 66.61
13 Valdosta 4-1 76.78 13 Kell 3-1 66.26
14 Lowndes 4-1 76.77 14 Glynn Academy 2-2 63.39
15 Tift County 5-0 75.53 15 Mundy's Mill 3-1 62.99
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 3-1 86.34 1 Calhoun 4-0 77.36
2 Cartersville 3-0 77.57 2 Blessed Trinity 4-0 75.94
3 Sandy Creek 3-1 74.77 3 Jefferson 4-0 68.72
4 Woodward Academy 4-0 73.57 4 Cedar Grove 3-1 64.43
5 Marist 3-1 72.16 5 Elbert County 4-0 63.45
6 St. Pius X 1-2 67.01 6 Westside (Macon) 4-0 60.41
7 Bainbridge 4-0 65.07 7 Westminster (Atlanta) 2-2 54.99
8 Mary Persons 4-0 62.99 8 Peach County 3-1 54.77
9 Thomson 4-0 61.47 9 Central (Carrollton) 4-0 54.00
10 Jonesboro 4-1 60.91 10 Callaway 3-1 52.87
11 Carrollton 1-3 58.15 11 Laney 2-2 52.21
12 Burke County 4-1 58.04 12 Hart County 3-1 51.87
13 West Laurens 3-1 57.63 13 Adairsville 3-0 51.33
14 Spalding 4-0 57.21 14 Dodge County 4-0 50.97
15 North Oconee 1-2 56.97 15 Pierce County 3-1 50.95
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 3-0 76.55 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 3-2 62.39
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 3-1 74.24 2 Mount Paran Christian 4-0 54.83
3 Fitzgerald 4-0 67.16 3 Prince Avenue Christian 4-0 51.80
4 Pace Academy 5-0 53.42 4 Charlton County 3-0 51.41
5 Lovett 1-4 52.95 5 Irwin County 2-1-1 50.69
6 Rabun County 4-1 52.38 6 Calvary Day 3-0 49.59
7 Brooks County 2-2 52.37 7 Marion County 2-1 47.16
8 Dublin 4-0 51.52 8 Clinch County 3-1 46.93
9 Lamar County 2-2 48.75 9 Aquinas 3-1 45.89
10 Macon County 2-2 48.14 10 Lincoln County 4-0 44.54
11 Wesleyan 4-0 46.87 11 Landmark Christian 3-1 44.32
12 Early County 2-1-1 45.49 12 Savannah Christian 3-1 43.24
13 Darlington 4-0 45.48 13 Emanuel County Institute 3-1 41.53
14 Thomasville 0-3 44.90 14 Turner County 4-0 40.19
15 Jefferson County 2-2 44.35 15 Mount Pisgah Christian 1-2 40.14

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 100.55 44.34 170
2 [2] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 4-0 93.01 73.27 8
3 [3] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 3-1 89.16 78.02 3
4 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 2-1 88.32 79.33 2
5 [5] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 4-0 88.13 59.60 52
6 [1] Buford 8-AAAA 3-1 86.34 51.43 107
7 [6] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 2-2 83.06 77.98 4
8 [7] Walton 5-AAAAAA 5-0 82.49 66.34 23
9 [8] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 4-0 82.11 63.77 31
10 [9] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 3-0 80.94 63.98 30
11 [1] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 4-0 79.83 57.47 68
12 [2] Ware County 3-AAAAA 4-0 79.19 46.87 146
13 [10] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 3-1 78.62 67.40 16
14 [11] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 2-2 78.45 49.40 127
15 [3] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 77.99 51.28 109
16 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 3-0 77.57 62.32 39
17 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 4-0 77.36 33.82 273
18 [12] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 76.81 54.80 82
19 [13] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 4-1 76.78 50.77 113
20 [14] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 4-1 76.77 60.43 45
21 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 3-0 76.55 53.52 92
22 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 4-0 75.94 51.90 102
23 [15] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 75.53 39.98 213
24 [16] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 2-2 75.53 75.76 5
25 [3] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 3-1 74.77 54.01 88
26 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 3-1 74.24 58.78 55
27 [4] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-0 74.07 47.28 144
28 [5] Coffee 3-AAAAA 3-1 73.80 58.28 59
29 [17] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 4-1 73.63 61.28 41
30 [4] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 4-0 73.57 46.15 157
31 [18] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 4-0 73.08 39.72 217
32 [6] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 4-1 72.97 55.56 77
33 [7] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 72.89 58.32 58
34 [5] Marist 6-AAAA 3-1 72.16 41.92 193
35 [8] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-0 72.09 36.75 243
36 [19] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 2-3 71.72 69.72 13
37 [20] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 3-1 71.20 67.19 18
38 [21] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 3-0 70.67 54.30 85
39 [9] Houston County 2-AAAAA 4-0 69.96 45.28 162
40 [10] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 2-1 69.81 48.79 129
41 [22] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 1-3 69.66 71.96 11
42 [23] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 3-1 69.27 63.01 36
43 [11] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 3-1 69.04 60.11 46
44 [3] Jefferson 8-AAA 4-0 68.72 44.42 166
45 [24] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 2-2 67.69 64.62 27
46 [25] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 3-2 67.68 63.27 35
47 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 4-0 67.16 47.88 139
48 [26] Newton 2-AAAAAA 4-1 67.13 53.97 89
49 [6] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 1-2 67.01 66.61 22
50 [27] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 2-3 66.79 72.26 10
51 [12] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 2-1 66.61 67.28 17
52 [13] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 66.26 54.98 81
53 [28] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-3 65.58 74.99 6
54 [29] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 0-3 65.32 80.16 1
55 [30] Milton 5-AAAAAA 1-3 65.31 69.29 14
56 [31] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 2-1 65.16 63.73 32
57 [7] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 4-0 65.07 50.52 115
58 [32] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 3-2 64.98 57.54 66
59 [4] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 3-1 64.43 40.80 204
60 [33] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 2-1 64.25 52.27 99
61 [5] Elbert County 8-AAA 4-0 63.45 48.41 132
62 [14] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 2-2 63.39 64.08 29
63 [34] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 1-3 63.06 73.16 9
64 [8] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 4-0 62.99 48.27 136
65 [15] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 62.99 51.13 110
66 [16] Lanier 8-AAAAA 4-0 62.87 47.09 145
67 [35] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 1-3 62.66 66.98 20
68 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 3-2 62.39 59.66 50
69 [17] Alexander 5-AAAAA 3-0 61.97 44.24 171
70 [36] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 2-2 61.85 58.77 56
71 [18] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 3-1 61.74 50.81 112
72 [19] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 3-1 61.64 42.96 184
73 [20] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-0 61.62 37.51 238
74 [9] Thomson 3-AAAA 4-0 61.47 44.03 173
75 [37] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 3-1 61.40 55.99 73
76 [10] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 4-1 60.91 51.42 108
77 [6] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 4-0 60.41 43.96 176
78 [21] Jones County 2-AAAAA 3-1 60.33 35.64 257
79 [38] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 3-1 60.33 43.97 175
80 [22] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 60.05 43.46 180
81 [39] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 4-0 59.35 40.50 208
82 [40] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 3-2 59.07 52.73 97
83 [41] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 1-4 58.99 71.13 12
84 [42] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 1-3 58.56 68.52 15
85 [23] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 3-0 58.27 45.70 159
86 [11] Carrollton 5-AAAA 1-3 58.15 64.12 28
87 [24] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 58.07 63.53 33
88 [12] Burke County 3-AAAA 4-1 58.04 46.45 153
89 [25] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-0 57.67 40.41 209
90 [13] West Laurens 2-AAAA 3-1 57.63 46.20 155
91 [26] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 57.26 52.02 101
92 [14] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 4-0 57.21 41.61 198
93 [27] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 57.05 42.65 191
94 [15] North Oconee 8-AAAA 1-2 56.97 64.74 26
95 [28] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 56.37 55.63 76
96 [29] Loganville 8-AAAAA 4-0 55.93 41.18 200
97 [16] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 1-2 55.67 55.47 78
98 [30] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 4-0 55.60 43.08 183
99 [17] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 2-2 55.41 52.70 98
100 [18] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 3-1 55.34 46.50 151
101 [43] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-2 55.27 49.71 125
102 [31] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 2-2 55.18 47.97 138
103 [19] Wayne County 3-AAAA 2-3 55.06 55.43 79
104 [7] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 2-2 54.99 50.06 120
105 [2] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 4-0 54.83 19.74 363
106 [8] Peach County 2-AAA 3-1 54.77 38.10 233
107 [32] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 54.17 35.06 264
108 [9] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 4-0 54.00 31.03 295
109 [33] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 53.84 39.57 218
110 [34] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 2-2 53.51 53.16 95
111 [44] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 0-3 53.43 66.87 21
112 [4] Pace Academy 6-AA 5-0 53.42 37.54 237
113 [45] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 2-2 53.23 57.93 61
114 [35] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 3-1 53.11 51.43 106
115 [5] Lovett 6-AA 1-4 52.95 58.44 57
116 [36] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 52.91 54.60 83
117 [10] Callaway 5-AAA 3-1 52.87 44.98 165
118 [20] Baldwin 2-AAAA 3-1 52.69 39.23 221
119 [37] Salem 8-AAAAA 4-0 52.60 33.86 272
120 [21] Stephens County 8-AAAA 2-1 52.47 45.24 163
121 [6] Rabun County 8-AA 4-1 52.38 36.40 245
122 [7] Brooks County 1-AA 2-2 52.37 53.49 93
123 [11] Laney 3-AAA 2-2 52.21 49.75 124
124 [38] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-3 51.94 55.71 74
125 [39] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 2-1 51.89 48.70 130
126 [12] Hart County 8-AAA 3-1 51.87 35.77 253
127 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 4-0 51.80 22.91 348
128 [22] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 3-1 51.77 38.61 228
129 [46] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 1-2 51.57 57.51 67
130 [8] Dublin 3-AA 4-0 51.52 31.88 291
131 [23] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 2-2 51.49 40.97 201
132 [4] Charlton County 2-A 3-0 51.41 29.97 306
133 [13] Adairsville 6-AAA 3-0 51.33 33.71 274
134 [40] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 51.31 59.78 47
135 [24] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 1-2 51.18 61.28 42
136 [14] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 4-0 50.97 29.80 307
137 [41] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 50.96 65.13 24
138 [15] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 3-1 50.95 41.70 197
139 [5] Irwin County 2-A 2-1-1 50.69 46.47 152
140 [25] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 4-0 50.62 32.08 290
141 [26] Whitewater 5-AAAA 1-3 50.60 57.59 65
142 [42] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-3 50.50 57.45 69
143 [47] Northview 6-AAAAAA 3-1 50.27 40.77 205
144 [48] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-3 50.07 65.05 25
145 [27] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 1-3 49.75 66.99 19
146 [6] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 3-0 49.59 25.66 331
147 [43] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 49.16 59.73 48
148 [44] Harris County 1-AAAAA 1-3 49.05 50.70 114
149 [45] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 48.97 34.89 267
150 [28] Liberty County 3-AAAA 3-2 48.88 45.82 158
151 [9] Lamar County 4-AA 2-2 48.75 43.93 177
152 [29] Howard 2-AAAA 4-0 48.65 36.99 241
153 [46] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 48.45 33.91 271
154 [47] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 2-2 48.32 43.54 179
155 [48] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 48.16 39.40 219
156 [10] Macon County 4-AA 2-2 48.14 47.57 141
157 [30] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 3-0 48.00 24.17 343
158 [16] Washington County 3-AAA 0-4 47.27 57.62 63
159 [31] Veterans 2-AAAA 1-3 47.21 60.68 44
160 [7] Marion County 4-A 2-1 47.16 33.14 281
161 [32] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 0-3 47.10 62.87 37
162 [49] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 46.96 38.56 229
163 [50] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 0-4 46.95 63.33 34
164 [8] Clinch County 2-A 3-1 46.93 35.77 252
165 [11] Wesleyan 6-AA 4-0 46.87 22.17 357
166 [51] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 1-3 46.68 50.83 111
167 [33] Pickens 7-AAAA 3-0 46.57 28.95 315
168 [17] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 2-2 46.39 40.03 212
169 [49] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-3 45.94 55.32 80
170 [9] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 3-1 45.89 30.81 298
171 [50] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 1-3 45.87 52.20 100
172 [34] Lithonia 6-AAAA 3-1 45.75 35.36 260
173 [35] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 2-2 45.50 44.23 172
174 [51] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 1-3 45.50 59.64 51
175 [12] Early County 1-AA 2-1-1 45.49 35.45 259
176 [13] Darlington 7-AA 4-0 45.48 26.32 329
177 [52] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 1-3 45.41 58.19 60
178 [36] Grady 6-AAAA 2-2 45.30 42.77 188
179 [53] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 44.99 45.05 164
180 [14] Thomasville 1-AA 0-3 44.90 62.44 38
181 [37] Columbia 6-AAAA 2-2 44.82 38.41 230
182 [18] Jackson 2-AAA 2-1 44.81 32.80 284
183 [10] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 4-0 44.54 21.98 359
184 [15] Jefferson County 3-AA 2-2 44.35 42.70 189
185 [19] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 2-2 44.34 48.33 135
186 [11] Landmark Christian 5-A 3-1 44.32 30.38 301
187 [38] North Hall 8-AAAA 1-2 44.12 55.70 75
188 [20] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 2-2 43.67 39.17 223
189 [54] Hiram 5-AAAAA 2-2 43.59 42.77 187
190 [52] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-3 43.51 59.48 53
191 [21] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 3-1 43.44 33.64 275
192 [16] Vidalia 2-AA 2-2 43.43 36.12 249
193 [55] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-1 43.39 33.30 279
194 [56] Columbus 1-AAAAA 4-0 43.38 32.37 288
195 [12] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 3-1 43.24 28.19 320
196 [53] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-4 43.09 73.67 7
197 [17] Bacon County 2-AA 2-2 42.98 50.11 119
198 [57] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 3-1 42.29 35.07 263
199 [58] Evans 2-AAAAA 1-3 42.27 49.50 126
200 [59] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-3 42.13 56.23 70
201 [18] Heard County 5-AA 2-2 42.02 38.72 227
202 [60] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 41.63 39.77 216
203 [13] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 3-1 41.53 26.23 330
204 [22] Pepperell 5-AAA 3-1 41.41 35.58 258
205 [23] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 2-2 41.13 40.91 203
206 [19] Model 7-AA 4-0 40.68 30.03 305
207 [39] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 1-2 40.41 54.04 87
208 [24] Jackson County 8-AAA 3-1 40.35 34.94 266
209 [54] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-4 40.33 59.34 54
210 [61] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 40.30 39.27 220
211 [20] Screven County 3-AA 4-0 40.25 15.07 388
212 [14] Turner County 2-A 4-0 40.19 22.88 349
213 [40] Perry 2-AAAA 1-3 40.19 50.20 117
214 [15] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 1-2 40.14 49.76 123
215 [62] Shaw 1-AAAAA 2-2 39.89 40.70 206
216 [41] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 2-3 39.75 40.96 202
217 [25] West Hall 7-AAA 2-2 39.60 35.67 256
218 [55] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-3 39.28 51.60 104
219 [63] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-4 39.21 56.05 72
220 [56] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-1 38.95 30.60 300
221 [42] White County 8-AAAA 0-4 38.80 53.86 91
222 [43] Troup 5-AAAA 0-4 38.55 56.19 71
223 [21] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-3 37.90 48.37 133
224 [44] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 1-3 37.50 62.07 40
225 [22] Union County 8-AA 4-0 37.16 19.33 365
226 [16] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 3-0 37.07 25.08 336
227 [17] Athens Academy 8-A 4-0 36.96 12.98 397
228 [26] Oconee County 8-AAA 3-1 36.80 23.16 347
229 [45] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 2-2 36.73 41.54 199
230 [27] Ringgold 6-AAA 2-2 36.66 31.13 294
231 [46] Fayette County 5-AAAA 0-4 36.23 51.47 105
232 [28] Morgan County 8-AAA 2-2 36.22 33.55 276
233 [47] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 1-2 36.08 38.19 232
234 [18] Commerce 8-A 2-2 35.88 32.90 283
235 [23] Swainsboro 3-AA 2-2 35.75 42.68 190
236 [48] Redan 6-AAAA 2-2 35.36 35.75 255
237 [24] Hapeville 6-AA 3-1 35.35 26.32 328
238 [64] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 1-3 35.34 45.34 161
239 [25] Bowdon 5-AA 1-3 35.32 41.83 195
240 [26] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 1-3 35.07 47.49 143
241 [65] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 34.78 44.35 169
242 [19] Greenville 4-A 3-0 34.56 11.19 402
243 [29] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 3-1 34.31 17.26 376
244 [49] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 2-2 34.30 30.84 297
245 [20] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 3-1 34.27 28.57 317
246 [66] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-4 34.26 59.73 49
247 [21] Dooly County 4-A 2-2 34.24 30.24 303
248 [22] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 1-2 34.21 38.90 224
249 [23] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 2-1 34.19 23.54 345
250 [57] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-4 33.99 50.13 118
251 [27] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 1-3 33.85 46.51 149
252 [24] Brookstone 4-A 1-2 33.80 38.73 226
253 [50] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 2-2 33.67 35.98 251
254 [30] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 3-1 33.49 23.44 346
255 [58] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 1-4 33.30 52.85 96
256 [59] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 3-2 33.25 31.88 292
257 [28] Coosa 7-AA 1-2 33.19 44.01 174
258 [29] Chattooga 7-AA 3-1 33.13 29.07 313
259 [30] Putnam County 4-AA 4-1 32.69 24.39 340
260 [31] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 1-3 32.68 46.34 154
261 [51] Gilmer 7-AAAA 1-2 32.50 27.93 321
262 [67] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 1-3 32.47 43.22 181
263 [25] Pacelli 4-A 3-1 32.40 22.80 351
264 [31] Pelham 1-AA 3-1 32.35 22.60 353
265 [32] Metter 3-AA 3-1 32.27 27.18 325
266 [60] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-1 32.25 17.37 374
267 [32] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-2 32.15 30.62 299
268 [52] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 2-1 32.00 24.04 344
269 [26] Hawkinsville 4-A 2-2 31.93 27.86 322
270 [33] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 1-3 31.88 37.24 239
271 [33] Dade County 7-AA 3-1 31.85 35.19 262
272 [34] Sonoraville 6-AAA 3-1 31.66 19.65 364
273 [34] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 0-4 31.49 45.67 160
274 [68] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-3 31.44 57.68 62
275 [35] Dawson County 7-AAA 1-2 31.24 36.19 247
276 [69] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-4 31.19 47.87 140
277 [61] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 2-2 31.05 49.21 128
278 [36] Spencer 2-AAA 1-2 30.98 49.87 121
279 [35] Manchester 5-AA 2-2 30.70 32.61 285
280 [27] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 4-1 30.43 8.30 408
281 [28] Trion 6-Div A-A 3-1 29.96 15.92 383
282 [29] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 2-2 29.85 30.99 296
283 [70] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 1-2 29.65 34.13 269
284 [71] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-3 29.51 47.50 142
285 [36] Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-3 29.31 43.78 178
286 [37] East Hall 7-AAA 0-3 28.72 44.40 167
287 [38] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 1-3 28.60 39.83 215
288 [37] Greene County 8-AA 2-2 28.56 33.14 282
289 [53] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 2-2 28.39 29.55 311
290 [38] Berrien 1-AA 0-3 28.20 48.21 137
291 [39] Seminole County 1-AA 1-2 28.16 24.26 341
292 [30] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 1-3 28.02 40.19 211
293 [54] Chamblee 6-AAAA 1-2 27.76 33.95 270
294 [55] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 3-1 27.76 9.01 407
295 [72] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 27.59 50.28 116
296 [39] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 1-3 27.54 39.92 214
297 [73] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 27.31 28.27 318
298 [74] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 27.29 30.31 302
299 [40] Southwest 2-AAA 2-2 27.15 36.97 242
300 [41] Franklin County 7-AAA 1-2 27.02 41.90 194
302 [31] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 2-2 26.62 29.55 310
301 [42] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-4 26.62 48.37 134
303 [75] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-3 26.60 48.68 131
304 [40] Bremen 5-AA 1-3 26.43 36.27 246
305 [43] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-4 26.26 46.51 150
306 [32] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 3-1 26.16 13.15 396
307 [33] Claxton 3-Div A-A 1-2 25.99 31.42 293
308 [44] Cedartown 5-AAA 0-4 25.99 38.80 225
309 [45] Rutland 2-AAA 1-3 25.47 38.00 235
310 [76] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-3 25.42 46.87 147
311 [34] Athens Christian 8-A 1-3 25.17 35.23 261
312 [77] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-4 25.15 53.21 94
313 [62] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-4 25.13 54.30 84
314 [46] Kendrick 2-AAA 2-2 24.95 25.64 332
315 [56] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 1-3 24.94 42.30 192
316 [35] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 1-3 24.71 36.17 248
317 [36] Telfair County 2-A 2-2 24.67 22.85 350
318 [47] Fannin County 7-AAA 2-2 24.63 22.16 358
319 [78] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-3 24.47 43.19 182
320 [48] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 3-1 24.31 14.06 392
321 [63] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-4 23.91 54.23 86
322 [79] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 23.40 33.26 280
323 [57] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-3 23.40 42.86 185
324 [80] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-3 23.20 40.61 207
325 [49] Banks County 7-AAA 3-1 22.97 15.33 386
326 [58] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-4 22.51 46.19 156
327 [59] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 2-1 22.34 16.29 381
328 [50] Rockmart 5-AAA 1-3 22.26 27.44 324
329 [37] Miller County 1-A 1-3 22.24 38.33 231
330 [38] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 2-2 22.11 18.99 369
331 [51] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 3-2 21.94 22.39 354
332 [39] Wilcox County 2-A 2-2 21.75 17.85 373
333 [41] Long County 2-AA 1-2 21.70 29.00 314
334 [64] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 0-4 21.63 46.72 148
335 [40] Walker 6-Div A-A 2-2 21.49 28.71 316
336 [81] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-4 21.30 51.82 103
337 [60] Madison County 8-AAAA 0-3 21.15 37.99 236
338 [42] Bryan County 2-AA 1-3 20.99 24.74 338
339 [43] Monticello 4-AA 0-4 20.61 37.13 240
340 [82] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-4 20.56 39.20 222
341 [52] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-2 20.50 25.26 333
342 [41] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 1-3 20.42 28.24 319
343 [53] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 2-2 20.15 22.20 355
344 [44] Jeff Davis 2-AA 3-1 20.14 9.21 406
345 [61] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 1-4 19.87 32.45 287
346 [45] Northeast 4-AA 0-4 19.85 34.98 265
347 [42] Terrell County 1-A 1-3 19.48 42.82 186
348 [54] Jordan 2-AAA 1-3 19.15 32.48 286
349 [43] Mitchell County 1-A 1-3 18.90 26.35 327
350 [46] East Laurens 3-AA 4-0 18.80 3.50 413
351 [44] George Walton Academy 8-A 1-3 18.69 30.18 304
352 [62] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 3-1 18.56 14.71 389
353 [83] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-4 18.46 49.79 122
354 [45] Taylor County 4-A 1-3 18.20 21.17 361
355 [47] Gordon Lee 7-AA 2-2 18.16 16.89 378
356 [55] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 1-3 17.25 27.61 323
357 [46] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 1-3 17.11 25.14 334
358 [47] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-3 16.70 41.70 196
359 [56] North Murray 6-AAA 0-4 16.69 36.42 244
360 [48] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 1-2 16.53 15.84 385
361 [49] Atkinson County 2-A 1-3 15.87 26.59 326
362 [84] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-3 15.65 34.71 268
363 [57] Murray County 6-AAA 2-1 15.09 17.27 375
364 [58] Josey 3-AAA 2-2 14.55 21.49 360
365 [59] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-4 14.07 53.95 90
366 [50] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 2-2 13.96 19.18 368
367 [60] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-4 13.77 33.52 277
368 [51] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 3-1 13.39 6.62 411
369 [63] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-4 12.26 32.25 289
370 [61] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 1-4 12.24 36.02 250
371 [52] Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-2 12.04 22.20 356
372 [53] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-3 11.05 18.80 370
373 [48] Crawford County 4-AA† 4-1 10.93 -0.24 417
374 [54] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 2-1 10.82 9.75 405
375 [55] Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-3 10.78 19.24 367
376 [56] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-2 10.63 19.28 366
377 [64] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-4 10.35 57.62 64
378 [62] Butler 3-AAA 1-2 10.33 24.53 339
379 [63] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-4 10.27 29.77 308
380 [65] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-2 10.09 14.67 391
381 [49] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 1-2 9.93 10.35 404
382 [50] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 0-3 9.05 35.76 254
383 [64] Hephzibah 3-AAA 1-2 8.90 12.89 398
384 [51] Social Circle 8-AA 2-1 8.18 15.88 384
385 [57] Portal 3-Div A-A 0-3 7.57 22.75 352
386 [58] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 1-3 7.07 10.63 403
387 [65] Haralson County 5-AAA 0-3 6.92 24.79 337
388 [52] Temple 5-AA 2-2 5.91 6.50 412
389 [66] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-3 5.85 16.46 380
390 [53] Harlem 3-AA 1-3 5.72 17.23 377
391 [59] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-3 5.36 18.12 371
392 [60] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-3 4.88 40.20 210
394 [61] Lanier County 2-A 0-3 3.95 25.08 335
393 [66] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-4 3.95 61.04 43
395 [62] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 1-2 3.78 2.15 415
396 [63] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 2-2 2.71 7.63 410
397 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-3 2.60 18.07 372
398 [64] Calhoun County 1-A 0-5 2.50 29.15 312
399 [54] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-4 2.02 44.36 168
400 [67] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-2 1.90 29.60 309
401 [55] Armuchee 7-AA 1-3 1.82 20.08 362
402 [65] Lakeview Academy 8-A 1-2 1.19 1.33 416
403 [56] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-4 1.08 24.24 342
404 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-4 0.39 11.32 401
405 [66] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 2-3 -0.56 2.88 414
406 [67] Schley County 4-A 0-3 -0.78 16.83 379
407 [68] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 1-3 -1.69 14.03 393
408 [68] Baconton 1-A 1-3 -2.57 13.97 394
409 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-5 -3.20 38.03 234
410 [69] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-4 -3.50 14.68 390
411 [70] Towns County 8-A 1-3 -3.91 11.35 400
412 [69] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-4 -5.81 16.13 382
413 [70] Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-4 -6.92 33.34 278
414 [71] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-5 -15.32 11.79 399
415 [72] Stewart County 1-A† 0-4 -20.83 15.12 387
416 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-3 -24.00 7.76 409
417 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-3 -25.75 13.17 395
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 96.02 79.01
2 8 - AAAAAA 89.04 69.58
3 7 - AAAAAA 88.36 67.75
4 5 - AAAAAA 83.77 66.84
5 4 - AAAAAA 80.79 64.81
6 5 - AAAA 75.55 55.08
7 2 - AAAAAA 74.40 49.37
8 3 - AAAAA 74.09 54.16
9 3 - AAAAAA 72.84 54.85
10 5 - AAAAA 72.55 53.97
11 6 - AAAAA 72.23 52.50
6 - Div B - AAAAA 78.26 60.20
6 - Div A - AAAAA 64.41 45.90
12 2 - AAAAA 71.33 49.24
13 4 - AAAAA 66.53 47.41
4 - Div A - AAAAA 66.77 46.72
4 - Div B - AAAAA 66.20 47.96
14 2 - AAAA 66.30 50.98
15 6 - AAAAAA 66.02 49.20
16 8 - AAA 65.68 44.53
17 8 - AAAAA 65.64 47.08
18 3 - AAAA 64.92 50.61
19 7 - AAAAA 64.13 46.32
7 - Div A - AAAAA 65.08 48.13
7 - Div B - AAAAA 63.02 44.51
20 8 - AAAA 63.98 43.72
21 6 - AAAA 63.50 44.56
22 6 - AA 63.21 41.98
23 1 - AAAA 62.48 44.45
1 - Div B - AAAA 63.94 45.55
1 - Div A - AAAA 61.05 43.32
24 1 - AA 61.16 41.99
25 1 - AAAAA 60.77 42.65
26 4 - AAAA 60.49 41.00
4 - Div B - AAAA 61.87 40.76
4 - Div A - AAAA 59.16 41.20
27 4 - AAA 58.08 32.52
4 - Div B - AAA 64.72 39.73
4 - Div A - AAA 48.77 26.28
28 7 - AAAA 56.51 35.15
29 2 - AAA 55.52 35.70
30 5 - AAA 55.31 34.39
31 5 - A 54.89 26.88
32 2 - AA 54.62 30.63
33 2 - A 53.02 32.53
34 3 - AA 51.71 33.82
35 6 - AAA 51.46 20.88
36 1 - AAA 51.25 32.06
1 - Div A - AAA 56.79 40.52
1 - Div B - AAA 40.29 20.50
37 4 - AA 50.21 34.76
38 7 - AA 47.54 30.48
39 3 - AAA 46.71 22.88
40 4 - A 45.43 28.02
41 8 - AA 45.28 23.79
42 6 - A 44.25 27.29
6 - Div A - A 47.54 32.22
6 - Div B - A 41.02 22.64
43 7 - AAA 44.11 29.40
44 5 - AA 43.46 25.64
45 7 - A 43.41 26.14
7 - Div B - A 45.01 26.72
7 - Div A - A 42.13 25.79
46 3 - A 43.12 21.53
3 - Div A - A 46.75 24.85
3 - Div B - A 38.29 17.72
47 8 - A 41.82 18.32
48 1 - A 26.29 12.40

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/28 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 21 - 35 13.29 79.1% 0.254
08/28 Sandy Creek Jonesboro 15 - 17 14.48 81.0% 0.282
09/18 Washington McNair 6 - 7 14.01 80.2% 0.295
09/03 Lovejoy Dutchtown 12 - 20 11.33 75.6% 0.306
09/18 Vidalia McIntosh County Academy 14 - 15 8.96 71.0% 0.374
09/11 Macon County Perry 33 - 34 8.56 70.2% 0.380
09/11 Alpharetta Johns Creek 39 - 42 8.01 69.0% 0.381
09/18 North Gwinnett Collins Hill 23 - 52 5.25 62.8% 0.383
09/04 Central Gwinnett Mundy's Mill 20 - 35 5.67 63.8% 0.391
09/11 Northwest Whitfield Southeast Whitfield 12 - 21 5.92 64.4% 0.399
09/04 Pierce County Bacon County 40 - 41 7.36 67.6% 0.400
08/21 Allatoona East Paulding 10 - 17 5.74 64.0% 0.407
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 5.55 63.5% 0.410
08/28 Brooks County Clinch County 20 - 33 4.82 61.8% 0.411
09/11 Jonesboro Eagle's Landing 7 - 17 4.95 62.1% 0.414

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.97 09/11 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 5.31 63.0%
87.45 09/04 McEachern Buford 37 - 14 3.43 58.5%
85.37 09/11 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 6 - 9 5.48 63.4%
84.84 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 5.87 64.3%
84.80 11/06 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge - 5.68 63.8%
84.04 10/30 Mill Creek Norcross - 6.63 66.0%
82.59 10/23 Peachtree Ridge Norcross - 0.33 50.8%
81.69 10/02 Walton Roswell - 0.94 52.4%
81.48 10/30 Archer Dacula - 9.08 71.3%
81.47 09/04 Mill Creek Dacula 34 - 7 8.89 70.9%
81.09 08/22 McEachern Tucker 50 - 14 10.71 74.5%
80.80 10/23 Grayson Dacula - 15.01 81.8%
78.74 08/22 Norcross Valdosta 34 - 31 5.33 63.0%
78.69 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County - 23.12 91.0%
78.64 10/02 Colquitt County Lowndes - 23.17 91.0%

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Loren Maxwell

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