Maxwell Week 3 Summary: Stable at the top

By Loren Maxwell

Updated Sept 3, 2018

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Aside from from minor shifting, the majority of the top teams in each classification remained steady. The biggest difference was Brooks County dropping from #2 in Class AAA to #6 after a 37-7 loss to Class A-Public’s second highest ranked team, Clinch County.

- Rome and Buford have swapped places in Class AAAAA, although both remain in the top two spots. It’s probable they'll continue to vie for the highest rating while on a likely collision course in the title game.

- Both Grayson and North Gwinnett fell to their out-of-state opponents this past weekend. Unfortunately out-of-state games carry little weight in the ratings since that data is difficult to collect and maintain.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 40.99%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 469 of 491 total games including 0 tie(s) (95.52%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.75 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.84

By Class

AAAAAAA				AAAAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Colquitt County	3-0	95.22	1	Lee County	3-0	81.43
2	Grayson	1-1	94.27	2	Coffee	3-0	74.89
3	North Gwinnett	1-1	89.41	3	Glynn Academy	2-1	72.38
4	Walton	3-0	83.08	4	Tucker	1-2	72.03
5	Parkview	2-0	82.27	5	Harrison	3-0	69.76
6	Mill Creek	2-1	81.36	6	Valdosta	2-1	67.45
7	McEachern	1-1	81.16	7	Creekview	3-0	67.17
8	Lowndes	2-1	79.48	8	Northside (Warner Robins)	1-2	65.49
9	Archer	1-1	78.09	9	Mays	0-2	64.76
10	Milton	3-0	77.41	10	Allatoona	0-2	62.19
11	Brookwood	2-1	76.68	11	Dalton	2-0	61.69
12	Tift County	2-1	73.87	12	Alpharetta	1-1	61.47
13	Norcross	1-1	73.80	13	Douglas County	1-1	59.46
14	Hillgrove	3-0	73.43	14	Brunswick	1-2	58.84
15	North Cobb	3-0	72.74	15	Dacula	1-2	57.95

AAAAA				AAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Rome	2-0	87.93	1	Cartersville	2-0	85.95
2	Buford	2-1	86.18	2	Blessed Trinity	3-0	81.43
3	Warner Robins	2-0	74.79	3	Marist	2-0	73.60
4	Stockbridge	2-0	74.62	4	St. Pius X	2-1	65.78
5	Jones County	3-0	69.52	5	Mary Persons	3-0	64.72
6	Ware County	2-1	65.44	6	Thomson	1-1	63.46
7	Kell	2-0	65.43	7	Sandy Creek	2-0	61.57
8	Carrollton	2-0	64.73	8	Troup	2-0	61.43
9	Dutchtown	3-0	64.18	9	Burke County	0-2	60.96
10	Wayne County	2-0	58.84	10	Eastside	3-0	60.28
11	Griffin	1-1	57.59	11	Flowery Branch	2-0	58.21
12	Bainbridge	2-1	56.65	12	Chapel Hill	2-0	58.19
13	Southwest DeKalb	3-0	55.37	13	Woodward Academy	1-2	56.85
14	Clarke Central	2-1	53.92	14	Cedartown	1-1	54.88
15	Starr's Mill	1-1	53.79	15	Oconee County	2-1	52.80

AAA				AA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Benedictine	1-0	76.06	1	Hapeville Charter	2-0	75.47
2	Cedar Grove	3-0	72.27	2	Thomasville	2-1	60.83
3	Calhoun	2-0	71.20	3	Callaway	2-0	59.09
4	Peach County	1-1	68.76	4	Dodge County	2-0	56.86
5	Greater Atlanta Christian	1-1	64.54	5	Rockmart	2-0	54.33
6	Westminster (Atlanta)	2-1	62.71	6	Brooks County	1-1	53.46
7	Monroe Area	3-0	57.21	7	Rabun County	1-1	52.28
8	Jefferson	1-1	57.05	8	Fitzgerald	2-1	52.23
9	Lovett	1-2	56.57	9	Vidalia	2-0	51.23
10	Pace Academy	2-1	55.10	10	Dublin	3-0	50.84
11	Dawson County	2-0	47.50	11	Heard County	1-1	50.80
12	Crisp County	1-2	47.30	12	Washington County	2-0	49.42
13	North Hall	3-0	46.84	13	Bremen	2-0	48.35
14	Westside (Macon)	2-1	46.82	14	Screven County	1-1	45.22
15	Liberty County	1-1	45.99	15	Elbert County	2-0	44.07

A - Public				A - Private
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Irwin County	3-0	58.45	1	Eagle's Landing Christian	2-1	64.40
2	Clinch County	2-0	57.96	2	Athens Academy	2-0	54.22
3	Manchester	2-0	46.06	3	Prince Avenue Christian	3-0	52.78
4	Commerce	3-0	43.69	4	Mount Paran Christian	1-1	47.79
5	Mount Zion (Carroll)	2-0	43.40	5	Darlington	3-0	45.58
6	Emanuel County Institute	0-2	41.03	6	Calvary Day	2-0	43.72
7	Dooly County	1-1	37.86	7	Aquinas	3-0	40.21
8	Marion County	2-0	36.24	8	George Walton Academy	2-0	39.22
9	Turner County	2-1	35.64	9	Savannah Christian	2-1	38.60
10	Pelham	3-0	34.82	10	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	3-0	37.58
11	Charlton County	2-1	33.86	11	Wesleyan	0-3	35.46
12	Lincoln County	1-1	32.72	12	Savannah Country Day	2-0	34.17
13	Trion	2-0	32.47	13	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	2-1	34.09
14	Macon County	0-2	31.52	14	Fellowship Christian	2-0	33.29
15	Mitchell County	1-1	29.67	15	Tattnall Square	1-2	30.31

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank	Team	Region	Rec	Rating	SchStr	Rank
1 [1]	Colquitt County	1 - AAAAAAA	3-0	95.22	70.08	14
2 [2]	Grayson	8 - AAAAAAA	1-1	94.27	70.19	13
3 [3]	North Gwinnett	6 - AAAAAAA	1-1	89.41	76.68	4
4 [1]	Rome	7 - AAAAA	2-0	87.93	45.00	138
5 [2]	Buford	8 - AAAAA	2-1	86.18	57.95	57
6 [1]	Cartersville	5 - AAAA	2-0	85.95	40.18	186
7 [4]	Walton	4 - AAAAAAA	3-0	83.08	60.94	46
8 [5]	Parkview	7 - AAAAAAA	2-0	82.27	71.17	11
9 [1]	Lee County	1 - AAAAAA	3-0	81.43	44.02	148
10 [2]	Blessed Trinity	7 - AAAA	3-0	81.43	64.95	28
11 [6]	Mill Creek	6 - AAAAAAA	2-1	81.36	72.20	9
12 [7]	McEachern	3 - AAAAAAA	1-1	81.16	63.84	32
13 [8]	Lowndes	1 - AAAAAAA	2-1	79.48	36.41	227
14 [9]	Archer	8 - AAAAAAA	1-1	78.09	77.41	3
15 [10]	Milton	5 - AAAAAAA	3-0	77.41	70.70	12
16 [11]	Brookwood	7 - AAAAAAA	2-1	76.68	64.54	29
17 [1]	Benedictine	3 - AAA	1-0	76.06	60.96	45
18 [1]	Hapeville Charter	6 - AA	2-0	75.47	44.13	147
19 [2]	Coffee	1 - AAAAAA	3-0	74.89	54.60	74
20 [3]	Warner Robins	1 - AAAAA	2-0	74.79	62.05	40
21 [4]	Stockbridge	4 - AAAAA	2-0	74.62	47.29	120
22 [12]	Tift County	1 - AAAAAAA	2-1	73.87	60.14	51
23 [13]	Norcross	7 - AAAAAAA	1-1	73.80	73.06	7
24 [3]	Marist	7 - AAAA	2-0	73.60	54.73	72
25 [14]	Hillgrove	3 - AAAAAAA	3-0	73.43	52.70	88
26 [15]	North Cobb	3 - AAAAAAA	3-0	72.74	56.08	65
27 [3]	Glynn Academy	2 - AAAAAA	2-1	72.38	8.99	377
28 [2]	Cedar Grove	5 - AAA	3-0	72.27	31.51	264
29 [4]	Tucker	4 - AAAAAA	1-2	72.03	79.59	1
30 [3]	Calhoun	6 - AAA	2-0	71.20	32.70	250
31 [16]	Roswell	4 - AAAAAAA	2-0	70.86	46.67	129
32 [17]	South Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	2-1	70.23	61.44	43
33 [5]	Harrison	6 - AAAAAA	3-0	69.76	46.12	131
34 [5]	Jones County	4 - AAAAA	3-0	69.52	48.51	111
35 [18]	Marietta	3 - AAAAAAA	1-2	69.05	72.53	8
36 [4]	Peach County	4 - AAA	1-1	68.76	74.39	6
37 [6]	Valdosta	1 - AAAAAA	2-1	67.45	46.79	127
38 [7]	Creekview	6 - AAAAAA	3-0	67.17	54.24	80
39 [19]	Mountain View	6 - AAAAAAA	2-1	66.56	62.07	39
40 [20]	Camden County	1 - AAAAAAA	2-1	66.55	52.64	90
41 [21]	Westlake	2 - AAAAAAA	2-0	66.01	37.40	214
42 [4]	St. Pius X	8 - AAAA	2-1	65.78	57.95	56
43 [8]	Northside (Warner Robins)	1 - AAAAAA	1-2	65.49	63.28	34
44 [6]	Ware County	2 - AAAAA	2-1	65.44	67.93	20
45 [7]	Kell	7 - AAAAA	2-0	65.43	53.88	81
46 [22]	North Paulding	3 - AAAAAAA	3-0	65.00	39.73	193
47 [9]	Mays	5 - AAAAAA	0-2	64.76	71.95	10
48 [8]	Carrollton	7 - AAAAA	2-0	64.73	46.88	124
49 [5]	Mary Persons	2 - AAAA	3-0	64.72	34.84	239
50 [5]	Greater Atlanta Christian	7 - AAA	1-1	64.54	57.80	59
51 [1]	Eagle's Landing Christian	5 - A	2-1	64.40	41.17	175
52 [9]	Dutchtown	4 - AAAAA	3-0	64.18	48.27	112
53 [6]	Thomson	3 - AAAA	1-1	63.46	49.60	108
54 [6]	Westminster (Atlanta)	5 - AAA	2-1	62.71	63.11	35
55 [10]	Allatoona	6 - AAAAAA	0-2	62.19	78.40	2
56 [11]	Dalton	6 - AAAAAA	2-0	61.69	39.50	196
57 [23]	South Gwinnett	8 - AAAAAAA	1-1	61.64	67.17	21
58 [7]	Sandy Creek	5 - AAAA	2-0	61.57	37.90	206
59 [24]	Etowah	4 - AAAAAAA	1-2	61.48	61.95	41
60 [12]	Alpharetta	7 - AAAAAA	1-1	61.47	64.35	30
61 [8]	Troup	5 - AAAA	2-0	61.43	42.77	163
62 [9]	Burke County	3 - AAAA	0-2	60.96	69.83	15
63 [2]	Thomasville	1 - AA	2-1	60.83	59.71	52
64 [25]	Newton	8 - AAAAAAA	1-1	60.40	46.98	123
65 [10]	Eastside	4 - AAAA	3-0	60.28	47.86	114
66 [13]	Douglas County	5 - AAAAAA	1-1	59.46	60.60	48
67 [3]	Callaway	5 - AA	2-0	59.09	33.33	246
68 [26]	Collins Hill	6 - AAAAAAA	0-2	58.97	76.06	5
69 [10]	Wayne County	2 - AAAAA	2-0	58.84	30.34	271
70 [14]	Brunswick	2 - AAAAAA	1-2	58.84	51.27	99
71 [27]	West Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	0-2	58.74	68.39	18
72 [28]	Woodstock	4 - AAAAAAA	1-2	58.65	62.08	38
73 [1]	Irwin County	2 - A	3-0	58.45	44.47	144
74 [29]	Newnan	2 - AAAAAAA	2-1	58.41	53.21	84
75 [11]	Flowery Branch	7 - AAAA	2-0	58.21	38.04	205
76 [12]	Chapel Hill	5 - AAAA	2-0	58.19	52.75	87
77 [2]	Clinch County	2 - A	2-0	57.96	41.75	168
78 [15]	Dacula	8 - AAAAAA	1-2	57.95	64.29	31
79 [30]	Central Gwinnett	7 - AAAAAAA	1-1	57.65	54.62	73
80 [11]	Griffin	3 - AAAAA	1-1	57.59	46.79	126
81 [7]	Monroe Area	8 - AAA	3-0	57.21	37.63	212
82 [8]	Jefferson	8 - AAA	1-1	57.05	46.38	130
83 [4]	Dodge County	3 - AA	2-0	56.86	44.62	142
84 [13]	Woodward Academy	4 - AAAA	1-2	56.85	60.34	49
85 [12]	Bainbridge	1 - AAAAA	2-1	56.65	28.17	284
86 [9]	Lovett	5 - AAA	1-2	56.57	60.33	50
87 [16]	Sequoyah	6 - AAAAAA	2-0	56.40	25.56	301
88 [17]	Effingham County	2 - AAAAAA	2-1	55.98	15.53	356
89 [31]	East Coweta	2 - AAAAAAA	0-2	55.64	65.08	27
90 [18]	Northgate	5 - AAAAAA	1-1	55.60	57.94	58
91 [13]	Southwest DeKalb	5 - AAAAA	3-0	55.37	42.94	159
92 [32]	Wheeler	2 - AAAAAAA	3-0	55.19	42.93	160
93 [10]	Pace Academy	5 - AAA	2-1	55.10	53.37	83
94 [14]	Cedartown	5 - AAAA	1-1	54.88	51.00	101
95 [19]	Richmond Hill	2 - AAAAAA	1-1	54.36	50.51	105
96 [5]	Rockmart	7 - AA	2-0	54.33	42.28	165
97 [2]	Athens Academy	8 - A	2-0	54.22	40.17	187
98 [33]	Lassiter	4 - AAAAAAA	1-2	53.96	59.12	54
99 [14]	Clarke Central	8 - AAAAA	2-1	53.92	54.31	78
100 [15]	Starr's Mill	3 - AAAAA	1-1	53.79	40.33	185
101 [34]	Kennesaw Mountain	3 - AAAAAAA	2-0	53.62	43.31	157
102 [6]	Brooks County	1 - AA	1-1	53.46	43.82	150
103 [20]	Stephenson	4 - AAAAAA	1-1	53.43	44.36	146
104 [15]	Oconee County	8 - AAAA	2-1	52.80	51.97	97
105 [3]	Prince Avenue Christian	8 - A	3-0	52.78	31.31	267
106 [21]	Hughes	5 - AAAAAA	0-2	52.62	65.37	25
107 [7]	Rabun County	8 - AA	1-1	52.28	41.47	173
108 [8]	Fitzgerald	1 - AA	2-1	52.23	40.43	180
109 [16]	Arabia Mountain	5 - AAAAA	2-1	51.67	47.67	116
110 [17]	Veterans	1 - AAAAA	3-0	51.60	39.89	191
111 [22]	Lanier	8 - AAAAAA	1-2	51.30	54.30	79
112 [9]	Vidalia	2 - AA	2-0	51.23	39.52	195
113 [23]	Centennial	7 - AAAAAA	0-2	50.88	68.18	19
114 [10]	Dublin	3 - AA	3-0	50.84	37.78	211
115 [11]	Heard County	5 - AA	1-1	50.80	54.40	76
116 [16]	West Laurens	2 - AAAA	2-1	50.74	40.04	189
117 [17]	Cairo	1 - AAAA	0-2	50.43	58.74	55
118 [35]	Pebblebrook	2 - AAAAAAA	1-1	50.26	52.02	96
119 [18]	Banneker	6 - AAAAA	2-1	50.25	47.92	113
120 [19]	Locust Grove	4 - AAAAA	1-2	50.23	61.15	44
121 [36]	Lambert	5 - AAAAAAA	2-1	49.57	42.90	161
122 [12]	Washington County	3 - AA	2-0	49.42	38.65	202
123 [18]	Perry	2 - AAAA	3-0	48.77	41.66	170
124 [37]	Meadowcreek	7 - AAAAAAA	2-0	48.73	30.36	270
125 [19]	Ridgeland	6 - AAAA	0-2	48.36	65.39	24
126 [13]	Bremen	5 - AA	2-0	48.35	32.51	251
127 [4]	Mount Paran Christian	6 - A	1-1	47.79	37.84	207
128 [20]	Eagle's Landing	4 - AAAAA	1-2	47.76	53.78	82
129 [21]	Thomas County Central	1 - AAAAA	1-1	47.75	49.99	106
130 [24]	Alexander	5 - AAAAAA	0-2	47.67	56.64	63
131 [11]	Dawson County	7 - AAA	2-0	47.50	32.41	252
132 [12]	Crisp County	1 - AAA	1-2	47.30	52.49	92
133 [25]	Houston County	1 - AAAAAA	2-1	47.23	26.09	295
134 [22]	Hiram	7 - AAAAA	1-1	47.13	51.26	100
135 [23]	Ola	4 - AAAAA	1-2	47.10	52.79	86
136 [38]	North Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	2-1	47.08	39.82	192
137 [13]	North Hall	7 - AAA	3-0	46.84	32.33	254
138 [14]	Westside (Macon)	4 - AAA	2-1	46.82	41.28	174
139 [20]	Spalding	2 - AAAA	1-2	46.79	51.70	98
140 [24]	East Paulding	7 - AAAAA	0-2	46.72	55.09	71
141 [26]	Winder-Barrow	8 - AAAAAA	1-1	46.34	46.76	128
142 [27]	Lovejoy	4 - AAAAAA	1-1	46.17	44.70	141
143 [39]	Campbell	2 - AAAAAAA	1-2	46.15	63.04	36
144 [3]	Manchester	4 - A	2-0	46.06	21.62	320
145 [15]	Liberty County	2 - AAA	1-1	45.99	41.62	171
146 [25]	Jonesboro	3 - AAAAA	2-1	45.71	47.86	115
147 [5]	Darlington	6 - A	3-0	45.58	29.19	276
148 [14]	Screven County	4 - AA	1-1	45.22	43.80	151
149 [21]	Upson-Lee	2 - AAAA	2-1	45.18	44.52	143
150 [26]	Riverwood	6 - AAAAA	2-1	45.07	38.85	200
151 [40]	Peachtree Ridge	6 - AAAAAAA	0-2	44.77	65.83	23
152 [27]	Carver (Atlanta)	6 - AAAAA	0-3	44.75	56.96	61
153 [28]	Statesboro	2 - AAAAA	2-0	44.75	36.82	219
154 [22]	Americus-Sumter	1 - AAAA	1-1	44.37	34.21	242
155 [16]	Pierce County	2 - AAA	3-0	44.25	21.24	322
156 [15]	Elbert County	8 - AA	2-0	44.07	26.24	292
157 [23]	Carver (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	2-0	43.92	31.59	263
158 [6]	Calvary Day	3 - A	2-0	43.72	-3.46	409
159 [4]	Commerce	8 - A	3-0	43.69	28.73	280
160 [41]	Cherokee	4 - AAAAAAA	1-2	43.60	50.71	103
161 [5]	Mount Zion (Carroll)	6 - A	2-0	43.40	22.27	318
162 [24]	Howard	2 - AAAA	2-1	43.40	34.59	240
163 [29]	New Hampstead	2 - AAAAA	2-1	43.31	28.75	279
164 [25]	Pickens	6 - AAAA	2-0	43.23	12.04	368
165 [16]	Douglass	6 - AA	3-0	42.96	26.83	289
166 [30]	Maynard Jackson	6 - AAAAA	1-1	42.52	45.02	137
167 [17]	Pike County	4 - AAA	3-0	42.33	0.93	396
168 [28]	Cambridge	7 - AAAAAA	0-2	42.25	62.91	37
169 [26]	Richmond Academy	3 - AAAA	3-0	42.22	21.24	323
170 [27]	Northside (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	2-0	42.21	26.58	291
171 [18]	Southeast Bulloch	3 - AAA	2-0	41.96	35.07	237
172 [28]	Northwest Whitfield	6 - AAAA	1-1	41.96	24.47	304
173 [29]	Sprayberry	6 - AAAAAA	1-2	41.95	54.52	75
174 [30]	Gainesville	8 - AAAAAA	0-3	41.88	52.69	89
175 [17]	Swainsboro	2 - AA	1-1	41.82	45.43	136
176 [29]	Stephens County	8 - AAAA	2-1	41.75	35.50	234
177 [31]	Villa Rica	7 - AAAAA	1-1	41.56	38.98	199
178 [32]	Paulding County	7 - AAAAA	0-2	41.56	59.31	53
179 [33]	Woodland (Stockbridge)	4 - AAAAA	1-2	41.49	40.38	182
180 [19]	Jenkins	3 - AAA	1-1	41.43	37.78	209
181 [6]	Emanuel County Institute	3 - A	0-2	41.03	52.88	85
182 [34]	Loganville	8 - AAAAA	2-1	40.71	36.33	228
183 [30]	Hardaway	1 - AAAA	2-0	40.67	16.29	348
184 [31]	Evans	3 - AAAAAA	0-3	40.48	49.10	109
185 [7]	Aquinas	7 - A	3-0	40.21	22.00	319
186 [32]	Johns Creek	7 - AAAAAA	1-1	40.20	0.00	399
187 [35]	Whitewater	3 - AAAAA	0-2	40.05	54.34	77
188 [18]	Jefferson County	4 - AA	0-2	40.01	45.62	135
189 [36]	Riverdale	3 - AAAAA	2-1	39.96	40.13	188
190 [31]	Salem	4 - AAAA	1-1	39.87	56.76	62
191 [20]	Cook	1 - AAA	2-1	39.74	36.76	221
192 [37]	Cedar Shoals	8 - AAAAA	2-1	39.60	34.38	241
193 [33]	Creekside	5 - AAAAAA	0-2	39.24	65.09	26
194 [8]	George Walton Academy	8 - A	2-0	39.22	30.91	269
195 [19]	Early County	1 - AA	2-1	39.15	43.75	153
196 [34]	Habersham Central	8 - AAAAAA	2-1	39.10	36.79	220
197 [35]	Pope	7 - AAAAAA	0-2	38.96	68.52	17
198 [36]	Heritage (Conyers)	3 - AAAAAA	0-2	38.64	52.13	94
199 [9]	Savannah Christian	3 - A	2-1	38.60	41.55	172
200 [37]	Grovetown	3 - AAAAAA	1-2	38.49	52.52	91
201 [21]	Appling County	2 - AAA	1-1	38.02	40.70	179
202 [7]	Dooly County	4 - A	1-1	37.86	37.49	213
203 [38]	New Manchester	5 - AAAAAA	1-1	37.62	36.64	223
204 [42]	Forsyth Central	5 - AAAAAAA	2-0	37.59	19.05	338
205 [10]	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	5 - A	3-0	37.58	26.21	294
206 [32]	Westover	1 - AAAA	1-1	37.38	36.23	229
207 [20]	Chattooga	7 - AA	2-1	37.35	31.80	261
208 [39]	Mundy's Mill	4 - AAAAAA	2-1	37.30	35.02	238
209 [33]	Baldwin	3 - AAAA	0-3	37.29	55.54	70
210 [34]	Columbus	1 - AAAA	1-1	37.18	46.80	125
211 [21]	Southwest	3 - AA	1-1	37.12	41.01	176
212 [22]	Ringgold	6 - AAA	1-1	37.04	44.73	140
213 [40]	Drew	4 - AAAAAA	0-2	36.74	60.64	47
214 [38]	Harris County	1 - AAAAA	0-3	36.53	45.92	133
215 [39]	Woodland (Cartersville)	7 - AAAAA	2-0	36.36	21.16	324
216 [35]	West Hall	7 - AAAA	1-2	36.27	39.45	197
217 [8]	Marion County	4 - A	2-0	36.24	17.67	343
218 [40]	Union Grove	4 - AAAAA	2-0	35.80	16.79	346
219 [43]	Shiloh	8 - AAAAAAA	1-2	35.77	37.07	216
220 [23]	Jackson	4 - AAA	0-2	35.76	57.47	60
221 [41]	Northview	7 - AAAAAA	1-1	35.70	36.57	225
222 [9]	Turner County	2 - A	2-1	35.64	28.49	282
223 [42]	River Ridge	6 - AAAAAA	0-3	35.61	68.87	16
224 [11]	Wesleyan	5 - A	0-3	35.46	47.00	122
225 [22]	Bleckley County	3 - AA	2-1	35.44	29.64	273
226 [36]	LaGrange	5 - AAAA	0-2	35.18	55.86	68
227 [10]	Pelham	1 - A	3-0	34.82	-6.62	413
228 [43]	Bradwell Institute	2 - AAAAAA	0-3	34.81	56.01	67
229 [23]	Berrien	1 - AA	2-1	34.80	33.58	245
230 [44]	South Cobb	6 - AAAAAA	0-3	34.30	56.24	64
231 [12]	Savannah Country Day	3 - A	2-0	34.17	6.28	389
232 [41]	South Effingham	2 - AAAAA	1-1	34.10	23.88	307
233 [13]	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	5 - A	2-1	34.09	32.21	255
234 [24]	Adairsville	6 - AAA	1-1	33.92	35.59	233
235 [11]	Charlton County	2 - A	2-1	33.86	27.08	287
236 [42]	Cass	7 - AAAAA	1-1	33.83	35.75	232
237 [45]	Alcovy	3 - AAAAAA	1-2	33.67	52.15	93
238 [24]	Union County	8 - AA	2-0	33.45	15.95	352
239 [37]	White County	7 - AAAA	1-1	33.38	26.22	293
240 [43]	Columbia	5 - AAAAA	1-2	33.36	50.92	102
241 [14]	Fellowship Christian	6 - A	2-0	33.29	15.63	355
242 [44]	Rockdale County	8 - AAAAAAA	1-2	33.28	38.07	203
243 [25]	Pepperell	7 - AA	0-2	33.25	44.41	145
244 [46]	Chattahoochee	7 - AAAAAA	0-2	33.19	47.32	119
245 [47]	South Paulding	5 - AAAAAA	0-2	32.75	56.07	66
246 [25]	North Murray	6 - AAA	1-1	32.74	31.97	257
247 [12]	Lincoln County	7 - A	1-1	32.72	0.00	400
248 [13]	Trion	6 - A	2-0	32.47	13.40	361
249 [38]	Hampton	4 - AAAA	1-1	32.07	43.63	154
250 [48]	M.L. King	4 - AAAAAA	0-2	31.81	47.54	117
251 [14]	Macon County	4 - A	0-2	31.52	35.97	230
252 [45]	Discovery	6 - AAAAAAA	1-2	31.21	42.11	166
253 [26]	Washington	6 - AA	1-2	31.09	44.96	139
254 [26]	Monroe	1 - AAA	2-1	30.87	18.71	339
255 [44]	Lithonia	5 - AAAAA	3-0	30.58	8.95	379
256 [27]	Spencer	5 - AA	0-3	30.33	41.73	169
257 [15]	Tattnall Square	7 - A	1-2	30.31	37.05	217
258 [49]	North Atlanta	7 - AAAAAA	2-0	30.22	19.22	336
259 [39]	North Oconee	8 - AAAA	2-1	30.12	22.68	316
260 [50]	Tri-Cities	5 - AAAAAA	0-2	30.07	47.32	118
261 [16]	Hebron Christian Academy	8 - A	1-1	30.05	39.67	194
262 [28]	Harlem	4 - AA	1-1	30.00	31.91	259
263 [45]	McIntosh	3 - AAAAA	1-2	29.92	35.12	236
264 [40]	Central (Carrollton)	5 - AAAA	1-2	29.69	36.61	224
265 [27]	Jackson County	8 - AAA	2-1	29.69	23.55	311
266 [15]	Mitchell County	1 - A	1-1	29.67	32.84	249
267 [29]	Jeff Davis	2 - AA	3-0	29.26	13.43	360
268 [46]	Walnut Grove	8 - AAAAA	1-1	29.08	34.09	243
269 [17]	Stratford Academy	7 - A	0-2	29.04	36.70	222
270 [28]	Morgan County	8 - AAA	1-2	28.96	28.93	278
271 [46]	Duluth	6 - AAAAAAA	1-2	28.94	38.04	204
272 [30]	Toombs County	2 - AA	2-1	28.87	11.36	370
273 [29]	Hart County	8 - AAA	0-3	28.87	43.79	152
274 [51]	Lakeside (Evans)	3 - AAAAAA	2-1	28.82	27.10	286
275 [52]	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4 - AAAAAA	0-2	28.75	50.67	104
276 [31]	B.E.S.T. Academy	6 - AA	1-2	28.72	43.59	155
277 [30]	Sonoraville	6 - AAA	1-1	28.62	28.62	281
278 [16]	Telfair County	2 - A	1-1	28.48	19.90	332
279 [53]	Morrow	4 - AAAAAA	1-2	28.40	55.77	69
280 [32]	Northeast	3 - AA	0-2	28.31	43.17	158
281 [31]	Central (Macon)	4 - AAA	0-2	28.27	47.16	121
282 [41]	Madison County	8 - AAAA	1-2	27.91	31.91	260
283 [42]	Heritage (Ringgold)	6 - AAAA	1-2	27.76	31.40	266
284 [54]	Greenbrier	3 - AAAAAA	0-2	27.64	40.33	184
285 [47]	Decatur	6 - AAAAA	1-1	27.21	25.75	299
286 [17]	Claxton	3 - A	2-0	26.07	18.30	340
287 [47]	Lakeside (Atlanta)	7 - AAAAAAA	1-1	26.06	31.46	265
288 [18]	Taylor County	4 - A	0-2	26.02	40.85	177
289 [43]	Chestatee	7 - AAAA	0-2	25.72	49.01	110
290 [48]	Fayette County	3 - AAAAA	0-3	25.70	37.78	210
291 [49]	Miller Grove	5 - AAAAA	1-1	25.45	23.51	312
292 [55]	Dunwoody	7 - AAAAAA	1-1	25.29	37.79	208
293 [18]	Holy Innocents	5 - A	1-1	25.08	28.23	283
294 [32]	Tattnall County	2 - AAA	0-2	24.91	34.01	244
295 [33]	South Atlanta	6 - AA	2-1	24.51	7.01	388
296 [19]	First Presbyterian	7 - A	0-2	24.28	38.74	201
297 [34]	Lamar County	5 - AA	2-1	24.24	-4.11	410
298 [35]	Laney	4 - AA	1-1	24.23	42.05	167
299 [36]	Metter	2 - AA	2-0	24.12	10.26	374
300 [37]	Coosa	7 - AA	0-3	23.98	40.03	190
301 [19]	McIntosh County Academy	3 - A	0-2	23.96	49.70	107
302 [33]	Franklin County	8 - AAA	1-1	23.89	25.72	300
303 [38]	Bacon County	2 - AA	0-3	23.66	43.33	156
304 [20]	Washington-Wilkes	7 - A	0-2	23.61	35.19	235
305 [39]	Hephzibah	4 - AA	1-1	23.58	29.51	274
306 [20]	Athens Christian	8 - A	2-1	22.99	19.65	334
307 [44]	Shaw	1 - AAAA	1-1	22.83	23.63	310
308 [45]	North Clayton	4 - AAAA	0-3	22.79	52.11	95
309 [34]	Worth County	1 - AAA	0-3	22.74	45.99	132
310 [21]	Mount Pisgah Christian	6 - A	1-2	22.73	22.80	314
311 [22]	Whitefield Academy	6 - A	1-1	22.43	20.68	326
312 [35]	East Hall	7 - AAA	0-3	22.16	42.85	162
313 [40]	Jordan	5 - AA	1-1	22.11	23.85	308
314 [46]	Luella	4 - AAAA	0-2	21.86	61.76	42
315 [41]	McNair	6 - AA	2-0	21.59	16.51	347
316 [36]	Windsor Forest	3 - AAA	1-1	21.57	23.80	309
317 [21]	Wilcox County	2 - A	2-0	21.52	10.50	373
318 [50]	Grady	6 - AAAAA	0-3	21.22	37.19	215
319 [23]	Mount de Sales	7 - A	3-0	21.20	10.01	375
320 [47]	Dougherty	1 - AAAA	0-2	21.12	63.83	33
321 [48]	Denmark	7 - AAAA	2-0	21.11	4.17	391
322 [22]	Atkinson County	2 - A	2-1	21.08	19.20	337
323 [42]	Butler	4 - AA	2-0	20.63	13.02	365
324 [49]	Southeast Whitfield	6 - AAAA	2-1	20.16	7.16	387
325 [23]	Johnson County	3 - A	2-0	19.88	7.50	386
326 [51]	North Springs	6 - AAAAA	1-2	19.75	14.34	359
327 [24]	Greene County	7 - A	1-1	19.59	20.22	330
328 [25]	Schley County	4 - A	1-1	19.42	15.66	354
329 [26]	Miller County	1 - A	1-0	18.90	-0.13	401
330 [43]	Therrell	6 - AA	1-2	18.90	40.40	181
331 [50]	Henry County	4 - AAAA	0-2	18.46	32.86	248
332 [52]	Lithia Springs	6 - AAAAA	1-1	18.17	15.95	351
333 [37]	Beach	3 - AAA	0-2	17.92	45.62	134
334 [56]	Apalachee	8 - AAAAAA	0-3	17.82	36.82	218
335 [24]	Our Lady of Mercy	5 - A	0-3	17.23	42.50	164
336 [44]	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	6 - AA	1-2	17.22	22.35	317
337 [51]	LaFayette	6 - AAAA	3-0	17.10	8.37	383
338 [38]	Savannah	3 - AAA	0-2	16.79	25.43	302
339 [52]	Cross Creek	3 - AAAA	2-1	16.15	8.76	380
340 [39]	Brantley County	2 - AAA	0-2	16.15	29.31	275
341 [40]	Redan	5 - AAA	0-3	16.13	24.02	305
342 [25]	North Cobb Christian	6 - A	2-0	16.03	8.98	378
343 [45]	Bryan County	2 - AA	1-1	15.39	16.19	349
344 [26]	Strong Rock Christian	5 - A	1-1	15.12	20.10	331
345 [41]	Towers	5 - AAA	0-3	15.06	32.13	256
346 [42]	Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe	6 - AAA	1-1	14.73	16.14	350
347 [27]	Jenkins County	3 - A	0-2	14.65	22.85	313
348 [28]	Bowdon	6 - A	0-3	14.59	32.36	253
349 [46]	Temple	5 - AA	1-1	13.81	8.27	384
350 [47]	Banks County	8 - AA	0-2	13.38	26.79	290
351 [43]	Lumpkin County	7 - AAA	1-2	13.33	20.73	325
352 [44]	Haralson County	6 - AAA	2-0	13.31	-3.08	408
353 [29]	Hancock Central	7 - A	1-1	13.27	12.75	366
354 [27]	Brookstone	4 - A	0-2	13.14	20.26	329
355 [57]	Forest Park	4 - AAAAAA	0-3	12.91	39.37	198
356 [28]	Christian Heritage	6 - A	2-0	12.71	-0.71	402
357 [48]	Monticello	8 - AA	1-1	12.68	17.89	342
358 [30]	Chattahoochee County	1 - A	1-2	12.23	24.01	306
359 [49]	Model	7 - AA	0-3	11.67	26.87	288
360 [50]	Putnam County	8 - AA	1-2	11.49	20.61	327
361 [31]	Hawkinsville	4 - A	1-2	11.15	21.42	321
362 [29]	Walker	6 - A	0-2	10.79	19.51	335
363 [32]	Montgomery County	3 - A	1-2	9.90	13.12	364
364 [33]	Wilkinson County	7 - A	0-2	9.84	29.02	277
365 [34]	Towns County	8 - A	1-1	9.73	31.61	262
366 [35]	Seminole County	1 - A	1-1	9.60	25.87	297
367 [45]	Islands	3 - AAA	0-2	9.55	35.76	231
368 [51]	East Laurens	3 - AA	0-3	8.88	31.91	258
369 [52]	Glenn Hills	4 - AA	0-2	8.16	22.70	315
370 [53]	Chamblee	5 - AAAAA	0-3	7.96	43.94	149
371 [30]	Pinecrest Academy	6 - A	0-2	7.82	25.40	303
372 [31]	Landmark Christian	5 - A	1-2	7.70	12.17	367
373 [32]	St. Francis	6 - A	0-2	7.16	17.54	344
374 [46]	Fannin County	7 - AAA	1-1	7.10	-0.87	403
375 [47]	Long County	2 - AAA	0-3	6.32	36.48	226
376 [48]	Rutland	4 - AAA	0-2	6.23	30.11	272
377 [36]	Warren County	7 - A	1-1	6.13	9.62	376
378 [53]	Druid Hills	4 - AAAA	1-1	5.72	1.54	394
379 [53]	Social Circle	8 - AA	2-0	5.47	-29.57	421
380 [49]	Kendrick	4 - AAA	0-3	5.05	25.93	296
381 [37]	Gordon Lee	6 - A	1-2	4.51	11.14	371
382 [33]	Riverside Military Academy	8 - A	1-1	4.38	2.54	392
383 [38]	Wheeler County	3 - A	1-1	4.36	0.48	397
384 [58]	Osborne	6 - AAAAAA	0-3	3.82	25.84	298
385 [50]	Murray County	6 - AAA	0-2	3.67	11.74	369
386 [54]	Armuchee	7 - AA	1-1	3.32	8.49	382
387 [39]	Portal	3 - A	1-1	3.06	1.82	393
388 [55]	Dade County	7 - AA	0-3	2.82	20.33	328
389 [56]	Westside (Augusta)	4 - AA	0-1	0.97	40.37	183
390 [34]	Lakeview Academy	8 - A	0-2	0.70	13.27	362
391 [54]	Johnson (Gainesville)	8 - AAAAA	2-1	0.52	-4.71	411
392 [40]	Lanier County	2 - A	0-2	-1.73	8.06	385
393 [41]	Terrell County	1 - A	0-3	-1.97	19.75	333
394 [42]	Greenville	4 - A	0-2	-2.36	33.28	247
395 [35]	Georgia Military College	7 - A	2-0	-2.44	-25.17	419
396 [43]	Treutlen	3 - A	2-1	-2.50	-17.31	416
397 [36]	Providence Christian	8 - A	2-0	-2.50	-30.64	422
398 [57]	Josey	4 - AA	0-2	-3.36	14.71	357
399 [44]	Calhoun County	1 - A	0-2	-4.91	14.51	358
400 [51]	East Jackson	8 - AAA	1-1	-5.20	-2.90	406
401 [52]	Stone Mountain	5 - AAA	0-3	-5.48	28.12	285
402 [48]	Berkmar	7 - AAAAAAA	1-1	-5.71	-17.73	417
403 [58]	Gordon Central	7 - AA	1-2	-5.80	4.54	390
404 [37]	King's Ridge Christian	6 - A	0-2	-7.63	0.94	395
405 [53]	Groves	3 - AAA	0-2	-9.42	66.03	22
406 [45]	Crawford County	4 - A	1-1	-9.55	-15.00	415
407 [38]	Pacelli	4 - A	1-1	-9.88	-0.93	404
408 [54]	Cherokee Bluff	7 - AAA	0-3	-11.41	15.74	353
409 [55]	Coahulla Creek	6 - AAA	0-2	-12.75	31.06	268
410 [56]	Johnson (Savannah)	3 - AAA	0-2	-12.79	40.79	178
411 [46]	Twiggs County	7 - A	0-2	-16.18	13.19	363
412 [47]	Central (Talbotton)	4 - A	0-2	-16.42	18.23	341
413 [48]	Baconton Charter	1 - A	1-1	-16.46	-7.17	414
414 [49]	Stewart County	1 - A	2-0	-17.47	-28.13	420
415 [54]	Gilmer	6 - AAAA	0-3	-18.85	-1.19	405
416 [59]	Oglethorpe County	8 - AA	0-3	-19.13	-2.97	407
417 [55]	Clarkston	5 - AAAAA†	0-3	-19.58	16.88	345
418 [50]	Randolph-Clay	1 - A	0-2	-21.36	8.67	381
419 [1]	Glascock County	7 - A†	0-3	-31.21	-5.70	412
420 [2]	Pataula Charter	1 - A†	1-2	-49.20	-18.30	418
421 [3]	ACE Charter	7 - A†	1-2	-52.43	10.87	372
422 [56]	Cross Keys	5 - AAAAA†	0-3	-53.65	0.30	398

† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank	Region	Comp Rating	Avg Rating
1	1 - AAAAAAA	89.58	78.31
2	8 - AAAAAAA	84.27	60.32
3	6 - AAAAAAA	82.25	57.10
4	3 - AAAAAAA	81.09	69.40
5	1 - AAAAAA	79.59	67.94
6	7 - AAAAAAA	79.03	57.15
7	4 - AAAAAAA	77.00	61.56
8	5 - AAAA	75.63	55.36
9	7 - AAAAA	75.58	49.57
10	7 - AAAA	73.76	44.44
11	5 - AAAAAAA	72.75	56.39
12	4 - AAAAA	71.60	53.29
13	8 - AAAAA	71.39	40.79
14	6 - AAAAAA	70.15	50.73
15	2 - AAAAAA	68.05	55.73
16	1 - AAAAA	67.35	52.86
17	5 - AAA	66.95	43.35
18	2 - AAAAAAA	66.28	55.23
19	5 - AAAAAA	63.80	46.61
20	2 - AAAAA	62.02	49.07
21	2 - AAAA	61.49	49.59
22	4 - AAAAAA	60.92	37.51
23	3 - AAAA	60.74	44.94
24	1 - AA	59.53	48.23
25	6 - AA	59.03	29.35
26	8 - AAAA	58.91	43.00
27	3 - AAA	58.67	20.38
28	4 - AAA	57.44	33.65
29	7 - AAAAAA	56.49	39.29
30	3 - AAAAA	56.46	41.83
31	8 - AAAAAA	56.43	43.40
32	3 - AA	55.21	39.24
33	7 - AAA	55.11	26.57
34	4 - AAAA	54.92	31.01
35	6 - AAA	54.83	24.04
36	5 - AA	54.59	35.01
37	2 - A	54.50	31.67
38	8 - AAA	53.56	31.74
39	1 - AAAA	52.87	38.23
40	5 - A	51.79	28.27
41	8 - A	51.69	25.55
	8-Div A - A	52.41	36.27
	8-Div B - A	35.47	16.11
42	6 - AAAAA	50.44	33.66
43	5 - AAAAA	49.91	34.15
44	6 - A	46.61	20.15
	6-Div A - A	42.70	23.39
	6-Div B - A	38.88	17.37
45	6 - AAAA	46.57	28.70
46	2 - AA	46.04	30.03
47	2 - AAA	45.39	29.89
48	3 - AAAAAA	45.08	34.65
49	1 - AAA	44.92	35.19
50	8 - AA	44.88	18.61
51	7 - AA	44.36	19.02
52	3 - A	43.72	21.42
	3-Div A - A	42.69	29.32
	3-Div B - A	31.36	13.39
53	4 - A	42.07	16.02
	4-Div A - A	37.59	8.48
	4-Div B - A	35.44	20.86
54	4 - AA	41.44	21.34
55	7 - A	38.78	18.94
	7-Div B - A	35.21	19.00
	7-Div A - A	31.21	18.87
56	1 - A	28.94	3.79

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct	Likelihood
08/24	Shiloh	Discovery	0 - 31	6.41	65.5%	0.356
08/31	Southeast Whitfield	Coahulla Creek	9 - 6	34.75	97.0%	0.395
08/24	Eagle's Landing Christian	Pace Academy	16 - 17	7.45	67.8%	0.398
08/17	North Forsyth	Cherokee	16 - 18	5.32	63.0%	0.428
08/18	Rabun County	Bremen	10 - 13	3.92	59.7%	0.446
08/24	East Paulding	Upson-Lee	16 - 21	3.39	58.4%	0.451
08/24	Greater Atlanta Christian	Westminster (Atlanta)	21 - 22	3.67	59.1%	0.454
08/17	Jefferson	Oconee County	13 - 20	2.41	56.0%	0.463
08/17	Treutlen	ACE Charter	35 - 21	51.78	99.4%	0.471
08/24	Crawford County	Pacelli	34 - 37	2.18	55.4%	0.472
08/17	Newnan	Chapel Hill	7 - 10	2.07	55.1%	0.473
08/31	Lakeside (Evans)	Duluth	3 - 7	1.72	54.3%	0.477
08/31	Morgan County	Walnut Grove	31 - 35	1.72	54.3%	0.477
08/24	Screven County	Southeast Bulloch	21 - 28	1.42	53.5%	0.479
08/17	Chattooga	Adairsville	20 - 21	1.59	54.0%	0.482

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating	Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct
94.73	09/21	Grayson	Colquitt County	-	0.90	52.2%
85.74	09/14	North Gwinnett	Walton	-	4.49	61.0%
83.72	08/18	Colquitt County	McEachern	41 - 7	14.06	80.3%
83.05	10/05	North Gwinnett	Mill Creek	-	9.89	72.9%
82.15	08/18	Walton	Mill Creek	48 - 27	1.71	54.3%
81.18	09/21	Buford	Archer	-	6.24	65.1%
80.79	10/26	Colquitt County	Lowndes	-	17.59	85.3%
80.34	08/31	Parkview	Lowndes	39 - 27	4.63	61.4%
79.68	09/07	Mill Creek	Archer	-	1.43	53.6%
79.36	10/12	Grayson	Archer	-	18.02	85.8%
79.31	08/18	North Gwinnett	Brookwood	37 - 2	12.72	78.1%
79.13	10/19	Parkview	Brookwood	-	3.74	59.2%
78.73	09/21	Parkview	Milton	-	6.70	66.2%
77.83	09/14	Colquitt County	Warner Robins	-	18.59	86.5%
77.74	08/17	Archer	Milton	19 - 21	0.69	51.7%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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