The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results from this past week:
- For the first time since early last season Colquitt County is not the highest rated team in the state. The Packers defeated Tift County 41-33 in spite of a 31-6 lead earlier in the game and appeared to have difficulty fending off a late Blue Devils rally. Still, the ratings don't reflect the result of a single game, but rather that Region 1-AAAAAA as a whole has not been as competitive as their last year's counterparts. Meanwhile, Grayson and Roswell have dominated all their opponents with the exception of Grayson's 26-24 defeat of Archer, a team no one else has come within 16 points of.
- This week, the close of the regular season will feature four of the top 15 match-ups of the regular season: Mill Creek-Peachtree Ridge, Colquitt County-Camden County, Mays-Stephenson, and Northgate-Stockbridge.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.57%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,711 of 1,860 total games including 1 tie(s) (92.02%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.94 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.
Home Advantage: 1.83
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
