Sports

Maxwell Week 11 Summary: Grayson, Roswell take over AAAAAA

By Loren Maxwell
Nov 2, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- For the first time since early last season Colquitt County is not the highest rated team in the state.  The Packers defeated Tift County 41-33 in spite of a 31-6 lead earlier in the game and appeared to have difficulty fending off a late Blue Devils rally.  Still, the ratings don't reflect the result of a single game, but rather that Region 1-AAAAAA as a whole has not been as competitive as their last year's counterparts.  Meanwhile, Grayson and Roswell have dominated all their opponents with the exception of Grayson's 26-24 defeat of Archer, a team no one else has come within 16 points of.

- This week, the close of the regular season will feature four of the top 15 match-ups of the regular season: Mill Creek-Peachtree Ridge, Colquitt County-Camden County, Mays-Stephenson, and Northgate-Stockbridge.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.57%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,711 of 1,860 total games including 1 tie(s) (92.02%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.94 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.83

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 10-0 96.32 1 Mays 9-0 77.64
2 Roswell 9-0 92.97 2 Stephenson 8-1 77.37
3 Colquitt County 9-0 91.93 3 Northgate 9-0 77.15
4 Archer 8-1 91.79 4 Northside (Warner Robins) 9-0 71.02
5 Mill Creek 9-0 87.48 5 Coffee 8-1 67.47
6 Peachtree Ridge 7-2 84.72 6 Stockbridge 9-0 66.99
7 Camden County 9-0 81.41 7 Allatoona 8-1 66.31
8 McEachern 8-1 79.96 8 Glynn Academy 7-2 66.24
9 Walton 8-1 75.19 9 Creekside 7-2 65.75
10 Lowndes 5-4 70.13 10 Ware County 7-2 65.33
11 Norcross 7-2 69.84 11 Starr's Mill 8-1 64.56
12 Valdosta 6-3 69.70 12 Lanier 9-0 61.66
13 Lee County 6-3 66.74 13 Jones County 8-1 59.55
14 Etowah 8-1 65.98 14 Houston County 8-1 59.26
15 Dacula 5-4 62.10 15 Effingham County 6-3 57.98
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Woodward Academy 9-0 70.72 1 Calhoun 9-0 66.58
2 Cartersville 9-0 67.11 2 Blessed Trinity 9-0 63.52
3 Bainbridge 9-0 64.95 3 Jefferson 8-1 54.55
4 Buford 8-1 63.98 4 Peach County 8-2 51.22
5 Sandy Creek 7-2 61.11 5 Cedar Grove 8-1 50.89
6 Mary Persons 9-0 60.97 6 Jackson 7-2 50.25
7 Thomson 8-1 60.20 7 Dodge County 9-0 49.26
8 Jonesboro 8-1 58.50 8 Elbert County 8-1 48.50
9 Locust Grove 9-0 57.38 9 Spencer 6-3 46.65
10 St. Pius X 7-2 56.07 10 Westside (Macon) 6-3 46.12
11 Worth County 6-3 53.60 11 Hart County 7-2 43.85
12 Spalding 8-1 53.12 12 Central (Carrollton) 9-0 42.27
13 Burke County 7-2 52.13 13 Oconee County 7-2 41.90
14 Marist 7-2 51.97 14 Central (Macon) 5-4 41.85
15 Liberty County 6-3 50.89 15 Callaway 8-1 40.63
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 9-0 68.27 1 Prince Avenue Christian 9-0 62.51
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 8-1 64.30 2 Eagle's Landing Christian 6-3 53.42
3 Fitzgerald 8-1 53.75 3 Clinch County 8-1 48.97
4 Brooks County 8-2 51.01 4 Aquinas 8-1 46.01
5 Rabun County 8-1 48.49 5 Turner County 8-1 45.34
6 Jefferson County 7-2 47.90 6 Mount Paran Christian 9-0 43.95
7 Darlington 9-0 42.75 7 Charlton County 6-2 41.48
8 Wesleyan 8-1 42.38 8 Irwin County 6-2-1 40.33
9 Screven County 8-1 41.40 9 Marion County 8-1 38.48
10 Lovett 5-5 40.65 10 Athens Academy 8-1 37.17
11 Pace Academy 7-2 40.61 11 Emanuel County Institute 8-1 36.96
12 Lamar County 7-2 40.54 12 Savannah Christian 8-1 35.99
13 Macon County 7-2 38.92 13 Stratford Academy 7-2 35.00
14 Early County 5-3-1 38.19 14 Lincoln County 8-1 34.42
15 Model 9-1 36.37 15 Calvary Day 8-1 34.16

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 10-0 96.32 54.87 25
2 [2] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 9-0 92.97 51.79 32
3 [3] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 9-0 91.93 56.92 15
4 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 8-1 91.79 57.12 13
5 [5] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 9-0 87.48 52.12 31
6 [6] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 7-2 84.72 56.81 16
7 [7] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 9-0 81.41 59.81 9
8 [8] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 8-1 79.96 52.83 28
9 [1] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 9-0 77.64 39.28 113
10 [2] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 8-1 77.37 30.96 206
11 [3] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 9-0 77.15 36.23 153
12 [9] Walton 5-AAAAAA 8-1 75.19 50.50 38
13 [4] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 9-0 71.02 34.04 178
14 [1] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 9-0 70.72 34.60 169
15 [10] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 5-4 70.13 68.75 1
16 [11] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 7-2 69.84 55.03 23
17 [12] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 6-3 69.70 57.03 14
18 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 9-0 68.27 29.54 221
19 [5] Coffee 3-AAAAA 8-1 67.47 44.77 75
20 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 9-0 67.11 26.70 250
21 [6] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 9-0 66.99 35.29 162
22 [13] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 6-3 66.74 51.08 36
23 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 9-0 66.58 20.63 303
24 [7] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 8-1 66.31 44.90 73
25 [8] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 7-2 66.24 50.34 39
26 [14] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 8-1 65.98 46.29 58
27 [9] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 7-2 65.75 45.05 70
28 [10] Ware County 3-AAAAA 7-2 65.33 46.80 55
29 [3] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 9-0 64.95 37.93 131
30 [11] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 8-1 64.56 34.45 172
31 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 8-1 64.30 33.01 192
32 [4] Buford 8-AAAA 8-1 63.98 20.73 297
33 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 9-0 63.52 29.49 223
34 [1] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 9-0 62.51 13.89 363
35 [15] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 5-4 62.10 61.98 5
36 [12] Lanier 8-AAAAA 9-0 61.66 38.33 125
37 [16] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 5-4 61.21 59.82 8
38 [5] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 7-2 61.11 41.89 88
39 [6] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 9-0 60.97 39.39 111
40 [17] Newton 2-AAAAAA 7-2 60.96 41.98 86
41 [18] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-4 60.77 47.06 54
42 [19] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 8-1 60.48 39.79 108
43 [7] Thomson 3-AAAA 8-1 60.20 34.85 165
44 [13] Jones County 2-AAAAA 8-1 59.55 30.03 215
45 [14] Houston County 2-AAAAA 8-1 59.26 31.67 200
46 [8] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 8-1 58.50 38.44 122
47 [15] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 6-3 57.98 51.69 33
48 [20] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 6-3 57.53 36.51 150
49 [21] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 7-2 57.47 42.84 82
50 [16] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 7-2 57.40 44.24 78
51 [9] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 9-0 57.38 28.01 244
52 [22] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 8-1 57.08 41.07 96
53 [17] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 7-2 57.06 45.24 67
54 [23] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 5-4 56.88 57.14 12
55 [18] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 6-3 56.80 36.74 147
56 [24] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 5-4 56.58 55.03 22
57 [25] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 4-5 56.35 63.09 3
58 [19] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 8-1 56.09 41.34 93
59 [10] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 7-2 56.07 36.23 152
60 [26] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 4-5 56.00 60.50 7
61 [27] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 4-5 55.82 54.25 27
62 [28] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 4-5 55.72 54.89 24
63 [29] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 6-3 55.62 48.66 46
64 [30] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 6-3 55.15 45.29 65
65 [20] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-2 54.99 31.79 198
66 [21] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 7-2 54.83 42.78 83
67 [31] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 5-4 54.58 49.01 45
68 [3] Jefferson 8-AAA 8-1 54.55 35.30 161
69 [22] Alexander 5-AAAAA 7-2 54.22 41.39 92
70 [23] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 7-2 53.78 37.65 137
71 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 8-1 53.75 34.69 166
72 [11] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 6-3 53.60 43.85 81
73 [32] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 7-2 53.57 38.68 120
74 [2] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 6-3 53.42 31.79 199
75 [24] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-4 53.12 48.51 48
76 [12] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 8-1 53.12 28.99 228
77 [33] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 7-2 52.52 40.68 101
78 [34] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 4-5 52.46 54.55 26
79 [25] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-3 52.36 37.22 143
80 [26] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-2 52.36 38.27 127
81 [27] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 7-2 52.22 34.61 168
82 [28] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-4 52.18 44.04 79
83 [13] Burke County 3-AAAA 7-2 52.13 41.13 95
84 [14] Marist 6-AAAA 7-2 51.97 32.53 195
85 [4] Peach County 2-AAA 8-2 51.22 34.54 170
86 [4] Brooks County 1-AA 8-2 51.01 33.51 189
87 [29] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-3 51.00 44.91 72
88 [15] Liberty County 3-AAAA 6-3 50.89 42.01 85
89 [5] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 8-1 50.89 16.73 339
90 [35] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-4 50.77 46.20 59
91 [36] Milton 5-AAAAAA 3-6 50.74 58.65 10
92 [37] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 4-5 50.26 51.51 34
93 [6] Jackson 2-AAA 7-2 50.25 36.29 151
94 [30] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-3 49.72 40.69 100
95 [7] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 9-0 49.26 23.57 274
96 [16] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 7-2 49.05 31.40 201
97 [3] Clinch County 2-A 8-1 48.97 21.44 288
98 [38] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-7 48.90 64.04 2
99 [31] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 6-3 48.89 45.29 66
100 [17] West Laurens 2-AAAA 7-2 48.88 34.03 179
101 [39] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 2-7 48.69 61.17 6
102 [8] Elbert County 8-AAA 8-1 48.50 33.69 185
103 [5] Rabun County 8-AA 8-1 48.49 20.70 300
104 [40] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 3-7 48.08 58.46 11
105 [32] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-2 48.07 29.54 222
106 [6] Jefferson County 3-AA 7-2 47.90 27.73 246
107 [18] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 6-3 47.81 37.59 138
108 [19] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 7-2 47.64 31.24 203
109 [33] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 6-3 47.34 37.28 140
110 [34] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-2 46.75 32.97 194
111 [9] Spencer 2-AAA 6-3 46.65 38.93 116
112 [20] Carrollton 5-AAAA 5-4 46.43 38.68 119
113 [10] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 6-3 46.12 37.78 135
114 [4] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 8-1 46.01 12.00 379
115 [41] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-4 45.93 45.69 61
116 [35] Loganville 8-AAAAA 7-2 45.51 30.19 213
117 [42] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-5 45.36 47.69 52
118 [5] Turner County 2-A 8-1 45.34 16.74 338
119 [43] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-6 45.11 56.61 17
120 [21] Howard 2-AAAA 6-3 44.75 38.80 117
121 [22] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 4-4 44.13 41.03 98
122 [23] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 5-4 43.98 40.91 99
123 [6] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 9-0 43.95 16.31 343
124 [44] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-6 43.93 51.01 37
125 [11] Hart County 8-AAA 7-2 43.85 30.54 209
126 [24] Wayne County 3-AAAA 3-7 43.70 52.42 29
127 [36] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 5-4 43.69 38.40 123
128 [37] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 5-4 43.38 41.90 87
129 [7] Darlington 7-AA 9-0 42.75 15.91 346
130 [45] Northview 6-AAAAAA 5-4 42.65 40.60 103
131 [25] Veterans 2-AAAA 4-5 42.55 45.50 63
132 [8] Wesleyan 6-AA 8-1 42.38 23.69 272
133 [12] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 9-0 42.27 19.25 311
134 [38] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 3-6 42.00 50.08 40
135 [13] Oconee County 8-AAA 7-2 41.90 25.44 257
136 [26] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 5-4 41.88 37.80 134
137 [14] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 5-4 41.85 35.52 159
138 [46] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 4-5 41.65 45.06 69
139 [7] Charlton County 2-A 6-2 41.48 28.08 242
140 [9] Screven County 3-AA 8-1 41.40 16.51 342
141 [27] Stephens County 8-AAAA 8-1 41.34 21.15 290
142 [28] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 5-4 40.82 33.35 191
143 [10] Lovett 6-AA 5-5 40.65 37.25 141
144 [39] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 5-3 40.65 36.23 154
145 [15] Callaway 5-AAA 8-1 40.63 21.61 286
146 [16] Adairsville 6-AAA 8-1 40.62 15.26 352
147 [11] Pace Academy 6-AA 7-2 40.61 27.64 247
148 [12] Lamar County 4-AA 7-2 40.54 22.21 281
149 [8] Irwin County 2-A 6-2-1 40.33 25.91 256
150 [40] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 6-3 39.91 28.56 236
151 [41] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-6 39.88 47.60 53
152 [42] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 5-4 39.81 39.12 115
153 [43] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 4-5 39.62 41.66 91
154 [44] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 5-4 39.34 36.99 146
155 [45] Columbus 1-AAAAA 7-3 39.05 32.26 196
156 [13] Macon County 4-AA 7-2 38.92 27.12 248
157 [47] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 2-7 38.83 55.47 20
158 [17] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 6-3 38.52 27.93 245
159 [9] Marion County 4-A 8-1 38.48 13.85 364
160 [14] Early County 1-AA 5-3-1 38.19 28.59 233
161 [29] Grady 6-AAAA 5-4 38.03 33.62 186
162 [46] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 3-6 38.01 49.23 44
163 [47] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-5 37.55 42.34 84
164 [48] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-3 37.30 28.57 235
165 [49] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-4 37.22 34.68 167
166 [10] Athens Academy 8-A 8-1 37.17 2.30 413
167 [30] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-6 37.03 48.66 47
168 [11] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 8-1 36.96 9.62 395
169 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 4-5 36.76 41.77 90
170 [18] Laney 3-AAA 7-2 36.68 14.34 361
171 [19] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 5-4 36.66 29.92 216
172 [20] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 6-3 36.52 30.37 212
173 [31] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-5 36.40 38.79 118
174 [15] Model 7-AA 9-1 36.37 20.55 304
175 [50] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 4-5 36.31 35.15 163
176 [12] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 8-1 35.99 11.18 383
177 [32] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-6 35.25 48.09 51
178 [13] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 7-2 35.00 15.93 345
179 [51] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-7 34.77 51.08 35
180 [21] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 6-3 34.73 21.07 292
181 [52] Shaw 1-AAAAA 4-5 34.54 36.61 148
182 [14] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 8-1 34.42 13.02 374
183 [33] North Hall 8-AAAA 5-4 34.23 29.43 226
184 [15] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 8-1 34.16 9.26 396
185 [16] Vidalia 2-AA 6-3 34.14 21.44 287
186 [34] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-5 34.00 35.44 160
187 [53] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-6 33.95 41.04 97
188 [22] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 5-4 33.91 30.87 207
189 [16] Landmark Christian 5-A 6-3 33.90 21.04 294
190 [54] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 2-7 33.90 45.18 68
191 [55] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-5 33.83 38.13 129
192 [23] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-3 33.57 23.56 275
193 [56] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 2-7 33.51 44.29 77
194 [57] Salem 8-AAAAA 4-5 33.43 34.43 173
195 [17] Commerce 8-A 6-3 33.23 17.91 323
196 [49] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 2-7 32.99 44.88 74
197 [50] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-7 32.72 44.48 76
198 [17] Hapeville 6-AA 5-4 32.70 26.30 253
199 [58] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-6 32.63 40.62 102
200 [35] Pickens 7-AAAA 8-1 32.56 17.27 333
201 [59] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 4-5 31.98 39.89 106
202 [36] Perry 2-AAAA 2-8 31.82 45.41 64
203 [18] Heard County 5-AA 6-3 31.75 21.03 295
204 [60] Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-6 31.65 41.29 94
205 [51] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 3-6 31.40 40.42 104
206 [18] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 8-1 31.07 12.08 378
207 [37] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 7-3 30.97 21.01 296
208 [61] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 5-4 30.96 29.46 225
209 [24] Pepperell 5-AAA 6-3 30.85 23.61 273
210 [25] Jackson County 8-AAA 4-5 30.58 33.50 190
211 [52] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-8 30.44 46.41 57
212 [38] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-6 30.23 37.21 144
213 [19] Putnam County 4-AA 6-3 30.11 21.85 284
214 [53] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-7 29.92 43.87 80
215 [20] Dublin 3-AA 6-4 29.77 23.94 269
216 [21] Swainsboro 3-AA 5-4 29.70 28.09 241
217 [62] Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-7 29.59 38.32 126
218 [19] Trion 6-Div A-A 6-3 29.43 14.90 354
219 [26] Washington County 3-AAA 4-5 29.33 28.02 243
220 [39] Lithonia 6-AAAA 6-4 29.14 25.11 261
221 [63] Evans 2-AAAAA 3-6 29.05 37.84 133
222 [22] Chattooga 7-AA 7-2 29.03 18.85 312
223 [27] Sonoraville 6-AAA 6-3 29.00 13.59 366
224 [40] North Oconee 8-AAAA 4-5 29.00 34.28 176
225 [28] Morgan County 8-AAA 3-6 28.98 35.90 156
226 [41] Fayette County 5-AAAA 3-6 28.78 39.38 112
227 [23] Union County 8-AA 8-1 28.34 7.15 403
228 [64] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-6 27.98 33.54 188
229 [54] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 3-6 27.43 37.15 145
230 [24] Manchester 5-AA 6-3 27.39 19.72 309
231 [55] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-8 27.20 56.18 19
232 [20] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 5-4 27.05 25.40 259
233 [29] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 5-4 26.80 20.66 302
234 [30] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 6-3 26.77 18.01 322
235 [42] Baldwin 2-AAAA 3-6 26.60 37.96 130
236 [25] Metter 3-AA 6-3 26.37 22.79 278
237 [65] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-8 26.28 48.39 49
238 [56] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 2-7 26.25 56.59 18
239 [31] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 5-4 26.18 24.56 263
240 [57] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-9 25.83 46.61 56
241 [26] Dade County 7-AA 5-4 25.73 25.93 255
242 [32] Jordan 2-AAA 3-6 25.51 33.96 181
243 [27] Bacon County 2-AA 5-4 25.24 23.94 268
244 [43] Redan 6-AAAA 4-5 25.14 23.93 270
245 [44] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 3-6 25.07 33.58 187
246 [45] Columbia 6-AAAA 3-6 25.04 32.97 193
247 [66] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-5 24.75 33.73 183
248 [67] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-6 24.74 39.58 110
249 [28] Pelham 1-AA 5-4 24.60 26.65 251
250 [68] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-9 24.45 49.50 43
251 [69] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 2-7 24.28 39.59 109
252 [21] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 6-3 24.07 10.53 387
253 [33] Dawson County 7-AAA 6-3 23.84 17.18 335
254 [46] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 3-6 23.80 28.62 232
255 [22] Telfair County 2-A 5-4 23.64 17.69 325
256 [34] East Hall 7-AAA 5-4 23.17 20.73 299
257 [23] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 5-4 23.14 17.64 326
258 [47] White County 8-AAAA 3-6 23.06 28.76 229
259 [48] Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-7 23.05 48.24 50
260 [29] Bryan County 2-AA 5-4 22.58 19.86 306
261 [35] Southwest 2-AAA 3-6 22.33 34.52 171
262 [30] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 4-5 22.32 25.41 258
263 [49] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 4-5 21.88 28.14 240
264 [31] Bowdon 5-AA 4-5 21.42 24.07 266
265 [24] Brookstone 4-A 5-4 21.33 18.06 321
266 [70] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-6 21.30 32.12 197
267 [25] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 5-4 21.01 19.79 308
268 [36] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 4-5 21.01 23.92 271
269 [32] Greene County 8-AA 5-4 20.97 18.57 316
270 [26] Dooly County 4-A 6-3 20.94 13.18 371
271 [37] Ringgold 6-AAA 5-4 20.75 14.77 355
272 [33] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 3-6 20.01 29.86 217
273 [27] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 5-4 19.90 18.29 319
274 [38] Franklin County 7-AAA 5-4 19.78 18.13 320
275 [39] Kendrick 2-AAA 3-6 19.41 34.13 177
276 [34] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-7 19.03 33.98 180
277 [58] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 4-5 18.68 21.98 283
278 [50] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 4-5 18.59 21.34 289
279 [35] Gordon Lee 7-AA 4-5 18.23 17.63 327
280 [51] Troup 5-AAAA 0-9 18.21 49.60 42
281 [28] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 5-4 18.18 17.36 331
282 [59] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-9 18.16 55.24 21
283 [36] Berrien 1-AA 2-7 18.16 35.65 157
284 [29] Pacelli 4-A 6-3 18.00 10.88 386
285 [52] Chamblee 6-AAAA 3-6 17.97 26.29 254
286 [30] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 5-4 17.41 8.76 397
287 [31] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 4-5 17.20 20.73 298
288 [60] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-9 17.04 62.90 4
289 [53] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-7 17.01 34.31 175
290 [54] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-5 16.68 29.59 219
291 [55] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 2-7 16.67 35.53 158
292 [71] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-8 16.64 40.13 105
293 [32] Athens Christian 8-A 5-4 16.44 12.32 376
294 [40] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-6 16.28 24.57 262
295 [41] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 5-4 16.22 16.70 340
296 [37] Jeff Davis 2-AA 4-5 15.93 18.47 318
297 [61] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 2-7 15.86 38.58 121
298 [42] Cedartown 5-AAA 1-8 15.82 30.17 214
299 [38] Bremen 5-AA 4-5 15.44 18.70 313
300 [43] West Hall 7-AAA 4-5 15.37 17.48 329
301 [56] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-5 15.30 14.39 360
302 [72] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-9 15.23 45.03 71
303 [39] Thomasville 1-AA 1-7 15.17 38.25 128
304 [44] Banks County 7-AAA 5-4 15.17 13.28 370
305 [73] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-9 14.88 52.32 30
306 [40] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 14.86 36.06 155
307 [45] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-5 14.37 14.71 356
308 [33] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-5 14.22 15.58 349
309 [46] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 2-7 14.05 28.65 231
310 [47] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 5-4 13.71 13.07 373
311 [62] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 2-6 13.68 29.49 224
312 [34] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 6-3 13.64 6.75 405
313 [57] Gilmer 7-AAAA 3-6 13.56 23.23 276
314 [41] Seminole County 1-AA 3-6 13.56 17.89 324
315 [42] East Laurens 3-AA 4-5 13.50 21.76 285
316 [74] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-7 13.36 39.21 114
317 [35] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 5-4 13.05 11.33 381
318 [36] Randolph-Clay 1-A 6-3 12.76 5.39 409
319 [43] Northeast 4-AA 1-8 12.36 29.54 220
320 [44] Coosa 7-AA 1-8 12.31 31.37 202
321 [75] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 2-7 12.19 38.38 124
322 [48] Rutland 2-AAA 1-8 12.13 34.87 164
323 [45] Crawford County 4-AA† 8-2 12.06 -3.12 416
324 [37] Hawkinsville 4-A 5-5 11.95 10.99 384
325 [46] Long County 2-AA 3-6 11.84 18.52 317
326 [76] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-8 11.83 34.41 174
327 [49] Rockmart 5-AAA 2-7 11.81 24.27 265
328 [47] Monticello 4-AA 1-8 11.78 28.32 239
329 [63] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 1-8 11.49 39.79 107
330 [64] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-7 11.31 30.47 211
331 [38] Miller County 1-A 5-4 11.30 9.86 394
332 [77] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-8 10.97 33.71 184
333 [78] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-8 10.48 37.24 142
334 [48] Harlem 3-AA 2-7 10.43 25.33 260
335 [79] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-7 10.10 30.49 210
336 [50] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-7 10.08 24.53 264
337 [39] Atkinson County 2-A 2-7 9.57 27.06 249
338 [80] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-8 9.55 36.57 149
339 [40] Mitchell County 1-A 4-5 9.49 11.24 382
340 [41] Taylor County 4-A 3-6 9.43 13.98 362
341 [51] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-6 8.91 19.94 305
342 [52] North Murray 6-AAA 4-5 8.83 13.43 368
343 [53] Josey 3-AAA 6-4 8.66 6.41 406
344 [54] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-7 8.46 19.37 310
345 [55] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-8 7.79 29.20 227
346 [42] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-6 7.78 17.40 330
347 [43] Greenville 4-A 4-5 7.49 12.24 377
348 [44] George Walton Academy 8-A 3-6 7.44 14.69 358
349 [45] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 4-5 7.36 13.10 372
350 [46] Terrell County 1-A 4-5 7.19 13.61 365
351 [49] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-8 7.08 28.65 230
352 [56] Murray County 6-AAA 4-5 6.75 10.23 391
353 [57] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 3-6 6.68 22.16 282
354 [81] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-9 6.49 37.91 132
355 [82] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-8 6.10 45.60 62
356 [47] Wilcox County 2-A 2-7 5.12 26.45 252
357 [48] Walker 6-Div A-A 3-6 5.02 22.51 279
358 [58] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-9 4.86 41.78 89
359 [49] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 3-6 4.47 15.60 348
360 [50] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 3-6 4.16 10.24 390
361 [50] Social Circle 8-AA 3-6 4.16 16.60 341
362 [51] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-6 4.12 9.96 392
363 [59] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-7 3.65 14.39 359
364 [52] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-8 3.44 28.48 237
365 [51] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 5-4 3.18 1.08 415
366 [60] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-9 2.69 45.75 60
367 [61] Madison County 8-AAAA 1-8 2.63 28.46 238
368 [52] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 4-5 2.56 2.97 412
369 [53] Claxton 3-Div A-A 2-7 2.56 19.82 307
370 [62] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 6-3 2.56 -4.38 417
371 [54] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 3-6 2.42 10.25 389
372 [53] Temple 5-AA 3-6 2.13 10.46 388
373 [55] Warren County 7-Div B-A 3-6 1.91 13.56 367
374 [58] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 2-7 1.87 16.84 336
375 [56] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 3-6 1.54 12.71 375
376 [59] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-8 1.06 17.61 328
377 [63] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-9 0.93 31.23 204
378 [57] Portal 3-Div A-A 1-8 0.31 17.33 332
379 [58] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 3-6 -0.37 6.37 407
380 [54] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-9 -1.94 31.01 205
381 [83] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-9 -2.03 37.68 136
382 [60] Butler 3-AAA 3-6 -2.08 11.50 380
383 [61] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 -2.16 29.77 218
384 [59] Lanier County 2-A 1-8 -3.27 22.91 277
385 [60] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 3-6 -3.50 8.21 399
386 [62] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-9 -4.31 18.66 314
387 [63] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 1-8 -4.72 21.05 293
388 [64] Hephzibah 3-AAA 3-6 -4.77 3.90 410
389 [64] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-8 -5.05 22.23 280
390 [84] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-9 -5.12 49.94 41
391 [61] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 1-8 -5.46 13.36 369
392 [65] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-8 -5.81 37.40 139
393 [65] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 2-7 -5.82 15.81 347
394 [55] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-8 -6.02 18.58 315
395 [56] Armuchee 7-AA 1-8 -6.39 23.95 267
396 [62] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-8 -6.47 21.08 291
397 [66] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-9 -7.46 33.86 182
398 [63] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-7 -8.86 7.36 402
399 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 1-7 -8.88 28.57 234
400 [64] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -9.06 16.23 344
401 [65] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-8 -9.61 9.94 393
402 [67] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-9 -10.40 30.57 208
403 [66] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-8 -11.17 15.47 351
404 [67] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 2-7 -12.99 7.79 401
405 [66] Calhoun County 1-A 0-9 -13.92 14.70 357
406 [67] Baconton 1-A 2-7 -14.11 3.63 411
407 [68] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-9 -14.40 15.48 350
408 [69] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-8 -14.88 14.98 353
409 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-9 -16.54 17.23 334
410 [70] Providence Christian 8-A 0-9 -21.62 7.96 400
411 [68] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-9 -21.73 20.66 301
412 [71] Schley County 4-A 0-9 -23.27 10.89 385
413 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-8 -27.42 8.29 398
414 [72] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-8 -28.64 1.42 414
415 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-5 -33.31 6.19 408
416 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-10 -35.58 16.80 337
417 [73] Stewart County 1-A† 0-9 -42.08 6.88 404
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 90.28 72.92
2 8 - AAAAAA 84.43 58.93
3 7 - AAAAAA 82.02 56.61
4 5 - AAAAAA 77.71 54.85
5 3 - AAAAA 69.80 50.75
6 4 - AAAAAA 67.62 50.50
7 4 - AAAAA 67.38 44.08
4 - Div A - AAAAA 70.09 43.76
4 - Div B - AAAAA 64.36 44.29
8 6 - AAAAA 66.15 39.48
6 - Div B - AAAAA 74.25 49.77
6 - Div A - AAAAA 54.00 33.56
9 5 - AAAA 65.45 40.07
10 5 - AAAAA 63.50 44.74
11 2 - AAAAA 62.51 37.58
12 2 - AAAAAA 61.60 36.09
13 3 - AAAA 60.91 46.25
14 3 - AAAAAA 60.30 41.10
15 6 - AAAAAA 60.27 42.70
16 2 - AAAA 60.15 43.39
17 1 - AAAA 57.19 38.03
1 - Div B - AAAA 61.82 39.53
1 - Div A - AAAA 53.02 36.85
18 4 - AAAA 57.00 35.52
4 - Div A - AAAA 57.52 37.97
4 - Div B - AAAA 56.41 32.58
19 7 - AAAAA 55.84 37.45
7 - Div A - AAAAA 57.24 38.93
7 - Div B - AAAAA 54.33 36.08
20 8 - AAA 55.45 37.58
21 2 - AAA 54.36 35.68
22 8 - AAAAA 54.31 35.30
23 1 - AAAAA 54.26 37.03
24 6 - AA 53.45 32.37
25 1 - AA 51.48 29.54
26 6 - AAAA 49.44 31.11
27 2 - A 49.35 27.73
28 3 - AA 46.56 28.43
29 8 - AAAA 46.08 25.09
30 7 - AAAA 44.89 22.75
31 5 - A 44.72 14.47
32 2 - AA 44.15 21.61
33 4 - AAA 44.10 20.04
4 - Div B - AAA 50.37 27.28
4 - Div A - AAA 35.56 12.67
34 5 - AAA 43.91 23.92
35 1 - AAA 43.24 23.34
1 - Div A - AAA 48.37 31.02
1 - Div B - AAA 34.23 11.58
36 7 - AA 42.02 23.60
37 6 - AAA 41.65 10.86
38 8 - A 41.07 12.91
39 4 - AA 40.76 23.25
40 8 - AA 38.08 15.89
41 7 - A 35.99 16.69
7 - Div B - A 38.34 16.19
7 - Div A - A 34.26 16.96
42 6 - A 35.89 17.52
6 - Div A - A 41.20 26.31
6 - Div B - A 29.14 9.16
43 5 - AA 34.34 17.20
44 3 - A 33.53 11.84
3 - Div A - A 34.65 12.45
3 - Div B - A 32.14 11.08
45 7 - AAA 31.78 17.18
46 4 - A 30.92 12.22
47 3 - AAA 29.28 3.94
48 1 - A 17.40 2.92

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/25 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 - 25 25.91 93.0% 0.141
09/25 Swainsboro Harlem 27 - 34 21.10 89.2% 0.169
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 19.84 87.9% 0.184
09/04 Bryan County Claxton 7 - 13 18.19 86.0% 0.209
10/23 B.E.S.T. Academy K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 26 - 27 17.42 85.1% 0.245
10/09 First Presbyterian Mount de Sales 21 - 22 16.84 84.3% 0.253
09/11 Northwest Whitfield Southeast Whitfield 12 - 21 13.84 80.0% 0.261
09/18 Dalton Cass 8 - 23 12.60 77.9% 0.262
08/28 Crawford County Central (Talbotton) 21 - 30 13.72 79.8% 0.263
09/18 Pacelli Greenville 12 - 22 12.34 77.4% 0.282
10/16 Gainesville Clarke Central 7 - 44 9.20 71.5% 0.294
08/28 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 21 - 35 10.38 73.8% 0.304
09/18 Mount de Sales Strong Rock Christian 15 - 18 12.25 77.3% 0.312
09/04 West Forsyth Alpharetta 39 - 43 11.66 76.2% 0.317
09/18 Vidalia McIntosh County Academy 14 - 15 12.29 77.4% 0.321

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
93.06 09/11 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 6.36 65.4%
86.34 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 8.91 70.9%
85.57 11/06 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge - 4.60 61.3%
84.84 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County - 8.69 70.5%
81.28 09/11 Peachtree Ridge McEachern 9 - 6 6.58 65.9%
77.39 11/06 Mays Stephenson - 2.10 55.2%
76.27 10/02 Roswell Walton 48 - 14 19.61 87.7%
73.37 10/23 Peachtree Ridge Norcross 31 - 0 13.04 78.7%
73.22 10/02 Camden County Valdosta 31 - 10 9.88 72.9%
73.00 10/02 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 - 20 19.97 88.0%
71.82 10/09 Camden County Lowndes 38 - 19 13.11 78.8%
70.94 10/30 Mill Creek Norcross 24 - 0 19.47 87.5%
70.61 08/21 Roswell Lowndes 35 - 8 24.68 92.2%
70.39 11/06 Northgate Stockbridge - 8.33 69.7%
70.28 10/30 Camden County Lee County 17 - 13 12.83 78.3%

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