Sports

Maxwell Week 12 Summary: Colquitt County retakes AAAAAA

By Loren Maxwell
Nov 9, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- After only one week Colquitt County jumped back to the top of the ratings with a 33-14 victory over previously undefeated Camden County. Still, Class AAAAAA remains hotly contested going into the playoffs, with five teams as legitimate contenders and a handful of dark horses just behind.

- Also, Stephenson topped Mays 10-9 in a battle of the two highest rated teams in Class AAAAA to take the top spot. Additionally, Stockbridge downed Northgate 20-2 in a fight between two highly rated undefeated teams in the classification while Houston County dropped previously undefeated Northside (Warner Robins). Houston County finished 9-1 along with Northside and Jones County, each of their losses only coming to each other.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.17%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,884 of 2,056 total games including 2 tie(s) (91.68%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.05 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.96

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 10-0 96.73 1 Stephenson 9-1 86.35
2 Grayson 10-0 95.83 2 Mays 9-1 77.86
3 Roswell 10-0 91.64 3 Stockbridge 10-0 73.51
4 Archer 9-1 90.90 4 Northgate 9-1 71.04
5 Mill Creek 10-0 89.43 5 Houston County 9-1 71.00
6 Peachtree Ridge 7-3 83.04 6 Coffee 9-1 68.57
7 Camden County 9-1 81.02 7 Creekside 8-2 68.22
8 McEachern 9-1 78.99 8 Northside (Warner Robins) 9-1 67.33
9 Walton 9-1 75.24 9 Glynn Academy 8-2 67.30
10 Lowndes 6-4 72.27 10 Jones County 9-1 67.11
11 Valdosta 7-3 70.84 11 Ware County 8-2 66.94
12 Etowah 8-2 66.98 12 Allatoona 9-1 66.45
13 Lee County 6-4 66.25 13 Starr's Mill 9-1 64.80
14 Norcross 7-3 65.61 14 Lanier 10-0 62.77
15 South Forsyth 9-1 64.68 15 Effingham County 7-3 59.28
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Woodward Academy 10-0 72.12 1 Calhoun 10-0 68.44
2 Cartersville 10-0 67.65 2 Blessed Trinity 9-0-1 61.88
3 Bainbridge 10-0 66.87 3 Jefferson 9-1 56.95
4 Buford 9-1 65.67 4 Cedar Grove 8-1-1 55.89
5 Thomson 9-1 63.63 5 Peach County 8-2 53.71
6 Mary Persons 10-0 63.30 6 Jackson 8-2 52.81
7 Sandy Creek 8-2 62.36 7 Dodge County 10-0 51.80
8 Jonesboro 9-1 60.34 8 Spencer 7-3 50.21
9 Spalding 9-1 56.46 9 Westside (Macon) 7-3 48.68
10 Worth County 7-3 55.66 10 Elbert County 8-2 47.46
11 St. Pius X 8-2 55.40 11 Oconee County 8-2 46.48
12 Burke County 7-3 54.67 12 Callaway 9-1 45.14
13 Liberty County 7-3 54.47 13 Hart County 7-3 44.94
14 Locust Grove 9-1 54.14 14 Central (Macon) 6-4 44.08
15 Upson-Lee 8-2 52.11 15 Cook 7-3 41.62
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 10-0 68.71 1 Prince Avenue Christian 10-0 66.19
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 9-1 62.77 2 Eagle's Landing Christian 7-3 54.43
3 Fitzgerald 9-1 56.71 3 Clinch County 9-1 50.64
4 Brooks County 8-2 53.28 4 Aquinas 9-1 50.45
5 Jefferson County 8-2 51.52 5 Irwin County 7-2-1 44.63
6 Rabun County 9-1 50.70 6 Turner County 8-2 43.18
7 Screven County 9-1 44.71 7 Charlton County 7-2 42.55
8 Wesleyan 8-2 44.56 8 Emanuel County Institute 9-1 42.38
9 Macon County 8-2 44.55 9 Mount Paran Christian 9-1 41.15
10 Darlington 10-0 42.57 10 Marion County 9-1 40.20
11 Pace Academy 8-2 41.49 11 Athens Academy 9-1 36.96
12 Lovett 5-5 41.21 12 Pinecrest Academy 9-1 36.67
13 Early County 6-3-1 40.34 13 Lincoln County 9-1 36.30
14 Lamar County 7-3 39.19 14 Stratford Academy 7-3 35.74
15 Vidalia 7-3 37.59 15 Commerce 7-3 34.70

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 10-0 96.73 60.71 9
2 [2] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 10-0 95.83 55.23 22
3 [3] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 10-0 91.64 53.71 29
4 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 9-1 90.90 57.26 16
5 [5] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 10-0 89.43 55.74 19
6 [1] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 9-1 86.35 33.68 194
7 [6] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 7-3 83.04 61.92 7
8 [7] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 9-1 81.02 63.17 5
9 [8] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 9-1 78.99 52.89 33
10 [2] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 9-1 77.86 43.70 81
11 [9] Walton 5-AAAAAA 9-1 75.24 50.10 48
12 [3] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 10-0 73.51 39.94 129
13 [10] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 6-4 72.27 67.84 1
14 [1] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 10-0 72.12 36.96 159
15 [4] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 9-1 71.04 41.45 109
16 [5] Houston County 2-AAAAA 9-1 71.00 38.27 147
17 [11] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 7-3 70.84 58.23 12
18 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 10-0 68.71 29.01 235
19 [6] Coffee 3-AAAAA 9-1 68.57 43.15 90
20 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 10-0 68.44 16.60 351
21 [7] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-2 68.22 44.82 74
22 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 10-0 67.65 28.74 239
23 [8] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 9-1 67.33 41.03 116
24 [9] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 8-2 67.30 51.68 37
25 [10] Jones County 2-AAAAA 9-1 67.11 36.67 162
26 [12] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 8-2 66.98 50.11 47
27 [11] Ware County 3-AAAAA 8-2 66.94 46.57 57
28 [3] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 10-0 66.87 41.25 113
29 [12] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 9-1 66.45 43.64 82
30 [13] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 6-4 66.25 55.72 20
31 [1] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 10-0 66.19 12.17 387
32 [4] Buford 8-AAAA 9-1 65.67 23.85 277
33 [14] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 7-3 65.61 56.45 18
34 [13] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 9-1 64.80 36.32 168
35 [15] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 9-1 64.68 42.40 99
36 [5] Thomson 3-AAAA 9-1 63.63 39.15 139
37 [6] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 10-0 63.30 42.67 95
38 [14] Lanier 8-AAAAA 10-0 62.77 36.59 165
39 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 9-1 62.77 35.03 181
40 [7] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 8-2 62.36 40.49 124
41 [16] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 6-4 61.90 57.39 15
42 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 9-0-1 61.88 32.76 201
43 [17] Newton 2-AAAAAA 8-2 61.81 39.70 133
44 [18] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 5-5 61.21 63.12 6
45 [19] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 5-5 60.65 56.69 17
46 [8] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 9-1 60.34 41.02 117
47 [20] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 6-4 59.82 58.18 13
48 [15] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 7-3 59.28 50.35 46
49 [16] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 9-1 59.12 42.36 100
50 [21] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-5 58.68 52.92 32
51 [17] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 7-3 57.92 40.23 126
52 [22] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 8-2 57.81 40.57 123
53 [18] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 8-2 57.60 42.12 102
54 [19] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 8-2 57.52 40.86 119
55 [23] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 5-5 57.27 61.31 8
56 [20] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 8-2 57.08 43.52 85
57 [24] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 7-3 56.99 44.99 73
58 [3] Jefferson 8-AAA 9-1 56.95 37.76 152
59 [25] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 7-3 56.80 33.01 199
60 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 9-1 56.71 35.07 180
61 [26] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 8-2 56.58 44.35 77
62 [9] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 9-1 56.46 32.22 206
63 [27] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 4-6 56.34 63.64 2
64 [21] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 7-3 56.09 46.41 59
65 [4] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 8-1-1 55.89 20.81 313
66 [10] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 7-3 55.66 45.53 69
67 [22] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 55.49 38.50 145
68 [28] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 6-4 55.48 50.94 43
69 [11] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 8-2 55.40 34.11 190
70 [29] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 8-2 55.33 43.08 91
71 [30] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 5-5 55.32 51.96 36
72 [23] Alexander 5-AAAAA 8-2 54.70 41.52 108
73 [12] Burke County 3-AAAA 7-3 54.67 46.42 58
74 [13] Liberty County 3-AAAA 7-3 54.47 43.28 89
75 [2] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 7-3 54.43 26.67 258
76 [14] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 9-1 54.14 29.97 225
77 [31] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 5-5 53.72 51.30 40
78 [5] Peach County 2-AAA 8-2 53.71 36.93 160
79 [24] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 7-3 53.62 41.83 104
80 [32] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 5-5 53.44 54.97 23
81 [25] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 53.40 36.86 161
82 [26] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 7-3 53.31 45.69 66
83 [4] Brooks County 1-AA 8-2 53.28 35.42 177
84 [27] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 7-3 52.96 42.10 103
85 [6] Jackson 2-AAA 8-2 52.81 35.47 175
86 [28] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 52.49 52.12 35
87 [15] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 8-2 52.11 36.45 167
88 [33] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 5-5 51.88 50.99 42
89 [7] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 10-0 51.80 23.80 278
90 [34] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 8-2 51.72 36.64 163
91 [5] Jefferson County 3-AA 8-2 51.52 29.34 231
92 [16] West Laurens 2-AAAA 7-3 51.44 39.56 134
93 [17] Marist 6-AAAA 8-2 51.41 30.40 219
94 [35] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 5-5 51.39 49.92 49
95 [36] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 3-7 50.99 60.12 10
96 [37] Milton 5-AAAAAA 4-6 50.99 55.44 21
97 [6] Rabun County 8-AA 9-1 50.70 22.45 293
98 [3] Clinch County 2-A 9-1 50.64 22.87 289
99 [4] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 9-1 50.45 16.63 349
100 [8] Spencer 2-AAA 7-3 50.21 40.27 125
101 [29] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 49.85 39.47 136
102 [30] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 7-3 48.98 42.43 98
103 [31] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 7-3 48.81 38.51 144
104 [9] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 7-3 48.68 38.15 149
105 [32] Loganville 8-AAAAA 8-2 48.67 32.17 207
106 [38] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 3-7 48.28 58.42 11
107 [39] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-5 48.21 46.30 61
108 [40] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-8 47.92 63.20 4
109 [10] Elbert County 8-AAA 8-2 47.46 36.17 169
110 [18] Carrollton 5-AAAA 5-5 47.25 43.57 84
111 [41] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-7 47.13 58.06 14
112 [19] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 4-5 46.54 46.37 60
113 [33] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 6-3 46.50 40.06 128
114 [11] Oconee County 8-AAA 8-2 46.48 30.06 224
115 [34] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 46.37 43.37 88
116 [20] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 46.19 42.31 101
117 [42] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-6 46.01 51.41 39
118 [21] Wayne County 3-AAAA 3-7 45.64 54.46 27
119 [43] Northview 6-AAAAAA 6-4 45.45 41.65 106
120 [44] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-5 45.27 47.09 55
121 [35] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 5-5 45.16 42.93 94
122 [22] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 6-4 45.15 39.40 137
123 [12] Callaway 5-AAA 9-1 45.14 25.33 268
124 [23] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 7-3 44.96 32.65 202
125 [13] Hart County 8-AAA 7-3 44.94 35.07 179
126 [36] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 44.91 31.23 212
127 [37] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 44.76 34.39 188
128 [24] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 6-4 44.75 35.45 176
129 [25] Veterans 2-AAAA 4-6 44.71 49.11 51
130 [7] Screven County 3-AA 9-1 44.71 20.66 315
131 [5] Irwin County 2-A 7-2-1 44.63 29.31 232
132 [8] Wesleyan 6-AA 8-2 44.56 27.81 247
133 [9] Macon County 4-AA 8-2 44.55 31.09 214
134 [26] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 44.50 39.25 138
135 [45] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-6 44.31 51.44 38
136 [14] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 6-4 44.08 35.22 178
137 [27] Howard 2-AAAA 6-4 43.80 40.22 127
138 [46] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 5-5 43.49 44.61 75
139 [6] Turner County 2-A 8-2 43.18 21.29 306
140 [47] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 3-7 42.86 54.72 25
141 [38] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 5-5 42.60 43.05 92
142 [10] Darlington 7-AA 10-0 42.57 17.37 343
143 [7] Charlton County 2-A 7-2 42.55 25.22 271
144 [39] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 42.40 46.89 56
145 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 9-1 42.38 11.77 391
146 [40] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 3-7 42.37 53.67 30
147 [41] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 5-5 42.07 41.08 115
148 [28] Stephens County 8-AAAA 8-2 41.87 25.99 261
149 [42] Columbus 1-AAAAA 7-3 41.84 34.73 185
150 [43] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 41.82 35.54 173
151 [15] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 7-3 41.62 30.73 216
152 [11] Pace Academy 6-AA 8-2 41.49 26.86 255
153 [16] Adairsville 6-AAA 9-1 41.38 11.57 392
154 [12] Lovett 6-AA 5-5 41.21 37.75 153
155 [9] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 9-1 41.15 21.28 307
156 [44] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 6-4 40.90 32.56 204
157 [45] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 6-4 40.59 37.67 155
158 [13] Early County 1-AA 6-3-1 40.34 27.07 250
159 [10] Marion County 4-A 9-1 40.20 12.39 386
160 [17] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 9-1 39.93 21.85 299
161 [29] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-7 39.51 51.22 41
162 [14] Lamar County 4-AA 7-3 39.19 26.67 259
163 [46] Shaw 1-AAAAA 5-5 38.62 38.60 142
164 [18] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 7-3 38.57 23.93 276
165 [19] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 7-3 38.44 30.29 220
166 [47] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 38.20 41.58 107
167 [30] Grady 6-AAAA 6-4 37.77 30.43 218
168 [31] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-7 37.71 49.76 50
169 [48] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 37.64 32.56 203
170 [15] Vidalia 2-AA 7-3 37.59 23.59 279
171 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 4-6 37.47 44.53 76
172 [20] Laney 3-AAA 8-2 37.23 12.01 389
173 [49] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 3-7 37.14 50.67 45
174 [50] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 37.03 31.35 210
175 [11] Athens Academy 8-A 9-1 36.96 5.55 411
176 [12] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 9-1 36.67 16.70 348
177 [32] North Hall 8-AAAA 6-4 36.46 29.40 230
178 [21] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 36.43 28.03 244
179 [13] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 9-1 36.30 15.04 362
180 [16] Model 7-AA 9-1 36.26 20.37 317
181 [51] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 4-6 35.79 37.74 154
182 [52] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-8 35.74 53.42 31
183 [14] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 7-3 35.74 20.13 318
184 [53] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 35.66 43.97 80
185 [54] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 5-5 35.37 39.83 131
186 [17] Heard County 5-AA 7-3 35.14 21.84 300
187 [33] Perry 2-AAAA 2-8 35.08 48.37 52
188 [55] Salem 8-AAAAA 5-5 34.94 33.81 193
189 [56] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 34.91 42.54 96
190 [57] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 34.79 34.79 184
191 [58] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 34.70 38.82 141
192 [15] Commerce 8-A 7-3 34.70 16.53 354
193 [22] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 34.38 34.03 191
194 [59] Evans 2-AAAAA 4-6 34.16 37.54 156
195 [16] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 9-1 34.07 8.94 403
196 [34] Baldwin 2-AAAA 4-6 33.98 40.57 122
197 [60] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 2-8 33.96 47.24 54
198 [49] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 3-7 33.91 43.43 87
199 [17] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 8-2 33.86 14.10 369
200 [18] Hapeville 6-AA 6-4 33.58 24.10 275
201 [35] Pickens 7-AAAA 8-2 33.56 20.97 311
202 [23] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-4 33.41 27.08 249
203 [36] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-7 33.30 41.32 112
204 [61] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 2-8 33.26 46.05 64
205 [50] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 3-7 33.20 54.03 28
206 [18] Landmark Christian 5-A 7-3 33.17 18.35 332
207 [19] Union County 8-AA 9-1 33.14 10.32 400
208 [20] Putnam County 4-AA 7-3 32.80 21.11 309
209 [24] Morgan County 8-AAA 4-6 32.66 36.45 166
210 [51] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-8 32.51 45.16 72
211 [37] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-6 31.94 37.17 158
212 [38] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 7-3 31.94 22.14 297
213 [52] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 4-6 31.93 37.19 157
214 [62] Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-8 31.93 41.20 114
215 [21] Swainsboro 3-AA 5-5 31.66 33.60 195
216 [22] Dublin 3-AA 6-4 31.52 25.53 264
217 [63] Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-7 31.30 43.58 83
218 [25] Pepperell 5-AAA 7-3 31.05 20.68 314
219 [19] Trion 6-Div A-A 7-3 30.89 15.09 361
220 [26] Washington County 3-AAA 5-5 30.65 23.37 281
221 [53] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 2-8 30.51 43.03 93
222 [54] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-9 30.46 45.65 68
223 [27] Jackson County 8-AAA 4-6 30.32 34.89 183
224 [39] North Oconee 8-AAAA 5-5 30.28 31.20 213
225 [40] Fayette County 5-AAAA 3-7 30.25 43.49 86
226 [55] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-8 30.25 45.45 70
227 [28] Sonoraville 6-AAA 7-3 29.85 11.50 394
228 [23] Chattooga 7-AA 7-3 29.44 21.31 305
229 [41] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 29.37 33.26 197
230 [64] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 29.07 37.97 151
231 [29] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 6-4 29.04 19.13 325
232 [42] Lithonia 6-AAAA 6-4 29.01 25.28 270
233 [24] Manchester 5-AA 7-3 28.75 18.13 334
234 [43] Columbia 6-AAAA 4-6 28.52 32.42 205
235 [25] Metter 3-AA 6-4 28.29 26.88 252
236 [65] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 28.10 30.44 217
237 [56] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-9 27.96 46.03 65
238 [30] Jordan 2-AAA 3-7 27.34 38.02 150
239 [31] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 27.27 22.76 291
240 [26] Dade County 7-AA 6-4 27.11 24.46 274
241 [20] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 7-3 26.60 13.79 372
242 [21] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 5-5 26.41 26.87 254
243 [22] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 6-4 26.27 22.38 295
244 [44] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 5-5 25.85 28.75 238
245 [57] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-9 25.62 54.84 24
246 [27] Pelham 1-AA 6-4 25.56 25.35 267
247 [45] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 25.41 30.24 222
248 [46] Redan 6-AAAA 4-6 25.28 26.96 251
249 [66] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 25.28 46.14 63
250 [23] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 6-4 25.18 17.70 337
251 [67] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-10 25.11 52.46 34
252 [47] Troup 5-AAAA 1-9 25.11 48.35 53
253 [32] East Hall 7-AAA 6-4 25.05 21.34 304
254 [48] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 4-6 24.83 26.88 253
255 [33] Dawson County 7-AAA 7-3 24.80 17.56 339
256 [68] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 2-8 24.68 39.92 130
257 [34] Southwest 2-AAA 3-7 24.37 38.23 148
258 [28] Bacon County 2-AA 5-5 24.11 24.87 272
259 [29] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 4-6 23.81 29.96 226
260 [24] Telfair County 2-A 5-5 23.79 21.34 303
261 [35] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 23.77 23.27 282
262 [69] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 23.33 30.27 221
263 [36] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 23.20 18.87 326
264 [70] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 23.19 34.37 189
265 [25] Brookstone 4-A 6-4 23.07 16.55 353
266 [26] Dooly County 4-A 7-3 22.90 12.80 381
267 [30] Bryan County 2-AA 5-5 22.85 23.13 285
268 [31] Greene County 8-AA 5-5 22.58 23.38 280
269 [49] White County 8-AAAA 3-7 22.46 30.18 223
270 [37] Franklin County 7-AAA 6-4 22.46 19.45 322
271 [32] Bowdon 5-AA 5-5 22.38 22.42 294
272 [38] Ringgold 6-AAA 6-4 21.86 13.24 377
273 [39] Kendrick 2-AAA 3-7 21.54 38.45 146
274 [33] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 4-6 21.44 27.91 245
275 [27] Athens Christian 8-A 6-4 21.32 14.41 366
276 [28] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 6-4 21.29 17.25 344
277 [29] Pacelli 4-A 7-3 20.41 11.46 395
278 [58] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 4-6 20.08 25.93 262
279 [30] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 6-4 19.63 16.09 356
280 [40] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 6-4 19.59 17.87 336
281 [31] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 5-5 19.38 14.66 365
282 [34] Berrien 1-AA 2-8 19.33 36.59 164
283 [50] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-5 18.98 32.10 208
284 [59] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-10 18.69 54.48 26
285 [35] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-8 18.67 35.53 174
286 [51] Chamblee 6-AAAA 3-7 18.50 29.14 233
287 [60] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 2-8 18.39 44.32 78
288 [41] Cedartown 5-AAA 2-8 18.24 28.96 237
289 [32] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 4-6 18.22 23.25 283
290 [42] West Hall 7-AAA 5-5 17.81 18.16 333
291 [43] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 17.80 27.68 248
292 [52] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 4-6 17.65 21.67 302
293 [36] Jeff Davis 2-AA 5-5 17.31 16.60 350
294 [53] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 3-7 17.24 33.24 198
295 [37] Gordon Lee 7-AA 4-6 17.23 19.46 321
296 [54] Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-8 17.05 45.44 71
297 [71] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 2-8 17.03 41.40 111
298 [38] Thomasville 1-AA 1-8 16.72 41.45 110
299 [61] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-10 16.67 63.28 3
300 [44] Banks County 7-AAA 5-5 16.50 16.34 355
301 [72] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-8 16.36 40.73 120
302 [55] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-5 16.24 15.21 359
303 [39] Harlem 3-AA 3-7 16.20 25.48 266
304 [62] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 3-6 16.16 26.69 257
305 [56] Gilmer 7-AAAA 4-6 16.16 22.96 288
306 [45] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 5-5 16.05 18.77 329
307 [46] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-6 15.83 17.40 342
308 [40] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 15.57 36.06 171
309 [57] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 15.46 32.08 209
310 [33] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-6 15.14 19.13 324
311 [41] Northeast 4-AA 2-8 15.01 29.66 228
312 [34] Randolph-Clay 1-A 7-3 14.88 6.02 409
313 [73] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 14.68 39.83 132
314 [42] Bremen 5-AA 4-6 14.62 20.86 312
315 [74] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-10 14.47 45.69 67
316 [75] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-9 14.41 40.70 121
317 [47] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 14.40 25.49 265
318 [48] Rutland 2-AAA 1-9 14.31 39.04 140
319 [43] Seminole County 1-AA 3-7 14.10 21.75 301
320 [63] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 1-9 14.02 42.49 97
321 [76] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-9 13.75 36.00 172
322 [44] Long County 2-AA 3-7 13.47 23.07 286
323 [77] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-9 13.34 38.58 143
324 [35] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 6-4 13.20 10.38 399
325 [64] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-8 13.10 34.72 186
326 [49] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-8 12.67 28.70 240
327 [36] Hawkinsville 4-A 5-5 12.54 11.51 393
328 [37] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 5-5 12.36 13.65 374
329 [38] Terrell County 1-A 5-5 11.81 13.26 376
330 [45] Monticello 4-AA 1-9 11.76 28.54 242
331 [46] East Laurens 3-AA 4-6 11.53 22.22 296
332 [47] Crawford County 4-AA† 8-2 11.51 -3.63 417
333 [39] Atkinson County 2-A 3-7 11.49 25.31 269
334 [78] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 11.01 27.86 246
335 [79] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-10 10.89 50.90 44
336 [50] Josey 3-AAA 6-4 10.52 8.32 404
337 [51] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 10.35 25.73 263
338 [40] George Walton Academy 8-A 3-7 10.17 19.21 323
339 [41] Mitchell County 1-A 4-6 9.48 12.97 380
340 [42] Walker 6-Div A-A 4-6 9.38 21.25 308
341 [52] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-8 9.28 20.64 316
342 [53] Rockmart 5-AAA 2-8 9.09 23.16 284
343 [80] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 8.96 36.07 170
344 [43] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 4-6 8.57 17.42 341
345 [54] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 8.50 28.29 243
346 [44] Miller County 1-A 5-5 8.39 11.16 397
347 [45] Taylor County 4-A 3-7 8.29 15.02 363
348 [48] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-9 8.00 31.04 215
349 [55] North Murray 6-AAA 4-6 7.52 15.54 357
350 [56] Murray County 6-AAA 4-6 7.13 14.26 367
351 [58] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 1-9 6.92 39.51 135
352 [46] Greenville 4-A 4-6 6.72 14.12 368
353 [49] Coosa 7-AA 1-9 6.61 29.04 234
354 [81] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 6.52 34.02 192
355 [59] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-8 6.50 17.17 345
356 [57] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 6.22 18.05 335
357 [47] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-7 6.21 18.45 330
358 [82] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 5.55 44.26 79
359 [48] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 4-6 5.38 13.76 373
360 [60] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 7-3 4.37 -3.18 416
361 [50] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-9 4.09 29.87 227
362 [51] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-7 3.89 12.00 390
363 [49] Wilcox County 2-A 2-8 3.67 24.64 273
364 [50] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 6-4 3.62 -1.61 415
365 [61] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-9 3.38 33.50 196
366 [51] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 4-6 3.21 8.00 405
367 [52] Warren County 7-Div B-A 3-7 3.13 16.98 346
368 [53] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 3-7 3.04 12.47 385
369 [54] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 4-6 2.85 6.27 408
370 [55] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 4-6 2.56 5.83 410
371 [62] Madison County 8-AAAA 1-9 2.53 28.69 241
372 [56] Portal 3-Div A-A 2-8 2.42 15.19 360
373 [58] Butler 3-AAA 4-6 2.25 10.26 401
374 [52] Armuchee 7-AA 2-8 1.99 22.56 292
375 [59] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 1.90 16.55 352
376 [53] Temple 5-AA 3-7 1.60 12.68 383
377 [60] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-9 0.92 19.72 319
378 [54] Social Circle 8-AA 3-7 0.71 15.37 358
379 [61] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-9 0.19 17.55 340
380 [57] Claxton 3-Div A-A 2-8 0.07 18.78 328
381 [55] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 2-8 0.02 17.58 338
382 [58] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 2-8 -0.37 13.59 375
383 [62] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 -0.44 31.35 211
384 [56] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-9 -0.71 32.87 200
385 [83] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-10 -0.78 40.89 118
386 [59] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 3-7 -1.86 11.04 398
387 [60] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 3-7 -2.99 11.39 396
388 [63] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-10 -3.36 41.74 105
389 [63] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -3.45 23.05 287
390 [61] Lanier County 2-A 1-9 -3.91 26.12 260
391 [64] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 2-8 -4.33 21.01 310
392 [62] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-9 -4.59 21.96 298
393 [64] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-9 -5.13 34.97 182
394 [65] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-9 -5.23 22.86 290
395 [65] Hephzibah 3-AAA 3-7 -5.73 5.53 412
396 [66] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-10 -5.98 34.55 187
397 [84] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 1-8 -6.13 28.98 236
398 [63] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-8 -6.31 12.66 384
399 [85] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 -6.49 46.16 62
400 [64] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -7.02 18.36 331
401 [66] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -9.53 19.52 320
402 [65] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-9 -10.32 9.97 402
403 [67] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 2-8 -10.40 13.05 378
404 [67] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-10 -10.87 29.42 229
405 [66] Baconton 1-A 3-7 -11.02 1.92 414
406 [67] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-9 -14.19 14.67 364
407 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-10 -15.46 18.81 327
408 [68] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-10 -16.27 13.91 371
409 [69] Calhoun County 1-A 0-10 -17.84 13.02 379
410 [70] Providence Christian 8-A 0-10 -18.34 13.98 370
411 [68] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-10 -20.61 26.74 256
412 [71] Schley County 4-A 0-10 -22.36 12.68 382
413 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-9 -25.97 12.12 388
414 [72] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-9 -28.33 2.32 413
415 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-5 -31.81 6.94 406
416 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-10 -33.91 16.76 347
417 [73] Stewart County 1-A† 0-10 -40.75 6.68 407
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 92.01 73.54
2 8 - AAAAAA 84.36 59.61
3 7 - AAAAAA 81.88 57.82
4 5 - AAAAAA 77.72 55.19
5 3 - AAAAA 70.94 51.60
6 6 - AAAAA 69.09 40.96
6 - Div B - AAAAA 75.94 52.82
6 - Div A - AAAAA 55.17 33.96
7 4 - AAAAAA 67.28 50.56
8 4 - AAAAA 67.19 44.24
4 - Div A - AAAAA 67.87 42.59
4 - Div B - AAAAA 66.35 45.44
9 2 - AAAAA 66.90 41.39
10 5 - AAAA 66.67 41.14
11 3 - AAAA 63.90 49.05
12 5 - AAAAA 63.57 44.65
13 2 - AAAA 62.74 46.18
14 6 - AAAAAA 61.76 43.81
15 2 - AAAAAA 61.45 36.87
16 3 - AAAAAA 60.25 41.59
17 1 - AAAA 59.48 40.49
1 - Div B - AAAA 63.94 42.01
1 - Div A - AAAA 55.45 39.29
18 1 - AAAAA 57.54 40.29
19 8 - AAA 57.15 39.33
20 2 - AAA 56.98 38.09
21 4 - AAAA 56.70 35.07
4 - Div B - AAAA 59.25 35.20
4 - Div A - AAAA 54.25 34.97
22 7 - AAAAA 56.39 37.43
7 - Div A - AAAAA 60.12 41.39
7 - Div B - AAAAA 52.02 34.11
23 8 - AAAAA 55.65 36.39
24 6 - AA 53.97 33.13
25 1 - AA 53.74 31.03
26 2 - A 50.45 28.55
27 3 - AA 49.30 30.65
28 6 - AAAA 48.84 30.92
29 8 - AAAA 47.20 25.78
30 2 - AA 45.84 23.05
31 7 - AAAA 45.75 23.60
32 1 - AAA 45.40 25.56
1 - Div A - AAA 50.63 33.30
1 - Div B - AAA 36.13 13.40
33 5 - A 44.95 14.72
34 4 - AAA 44.91 20.45
4 - Div B - AAA 49.41 26.35
4 - Div A - AAA 38.42 14.52
35 5 - AAA 44.75 24.29
36 4 - AA 42.76 25.01
37 8 - A 42.59 15.01
38 6 - AAA 42.49 11.27
39 7 - AA 42.05 23.45
40 8 - AA 40.25 17.10
41 6 - A 37.84 20.21
6 - Div A - A 41.18 27.22
6 - Div B - A 33.51 12.83
42 7 - A 37.77 17.98
7 - Div B - A 41.04 17.59
7 - Div A - A 35.49 18.18
43 5 - AA 35.80 17.78
44 3 - A 33.99 11.17
3 - Div B - A 34.55 10.64
3 - Div A - A 33.59 11.55
45 7 - AAA 33.49 18.86
46 4 - A 32.26 12.96
47 3 - AAA 30.54 5.63
48 1 - A 18.31 3.63

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/25 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 - 25 28.24 94.4% 0.121
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 23.32 91.1% 0.145
09/04 Bryan County Claxton 7 - 13 20.82 88.9% 0.176
09/25 Swainsboro Harlem 27 - 34 17.43 85.1% 0.216
09/18 Pacelli Greenville 12 - 22 15.66 82.7% 0.229
10/09 First Presbyterian Mount de Sales 21 - 22 17.84 85.6% 0.239
09/18 Dalton Cass 8 - 23 13.74 79.8% 0.244
09/04 Central Gwinnett Mundy's Mill 20 - 35 13.57 79.5% 0.246
10/23 B.E.S.T. Academy K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 26 - 27 16.54 83.9% 0.257
10/16 Gainesville Clarke Central 7 - 44 11.06 75.1% 0.258
09/11 Northwest Whitfield Southeast Whitfield 12 - 21 13.73 79.8% 0.263
09/11 Jonesboro Eagle's Landing 7 - 17 13.22 79.0% 0.267
09/04 Collins Hill South Gwinnett 17 - 20 14.69 81.3% 0.274
08/28 Crawford County Central (Talbotton) 21 - 30 12.54 77.8% 0.282
09/18 Mount de Sales Strong Rock Christian 15 - 18 13.73 79.8% 0.288

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
92.20 09/11 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 6.90 66.6%
84.66 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 9.83 72.8%
84.58 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County 33 - 14 13.74 79.8%
84.54 11/06 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge 20 - 17 8.35 69.8%
81.06 11/06 Stephenson Mays 10 - 9 6.53 65.8%
80.12 09/11 Peachtree Ridge McEachern 9 - 6 6.01 64.6%
76.41 10/02 Roswell Walton 48 - 14 18.36 86.2%
74.90 10/02 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 - 20 22.49 90.5%
74.29 10/02 Camden County Valdosta 31 - 10 8.22 69.5%
73.93 10/09 Camden County Lowndes 38 - 19 10.72 74.5%
73.81 11/13 McEachern Lowndes - 8.68 70.4%
73.08 08/21 Roswell Lowndes 35 - 8 21.33 89.4%
71.79 11/06 Stockbridge Northgate 20 - 2 4.43 60.9%
71.27 10/30 Lowndes Valdosta 7 - 17 3.40 58.4%
70.93 09/04 Camden County Glynn Academy 24 - 17 11.76 76.4%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

More Stories

The Latest

Jermaine Johnson

Jets agree to trade Jermaine Johnson to the Titans for T'Vondre Sweat, AP source says

1h ago

FIFA president says he has full confidence in Mexico as World Cup host despite cartel violence

2h ago

WNBA union plans to survey players with agents seeking input in process, AP source says

2h ago

Keep Reading

The Win Column: Slow down, fellas

Tyler Reddick, Michael Jordan claim second straight win at Autotrader 400

Georgia State no match for James Madison

Featured

North Point Mall

Ponce City Market developer to tackle North Point Mall’s NHL ambitions

EXCLUSIVE

‘We’re lucky to be alive’ after MARTA train hits fallen tree

SPECIAL FEATURE

W.E.B. Du Bois challenged racist myths in 1900. We re-created his work.