Sports

Maxwell Week 1 Summary: Colquitt County picks up where it left off

By Loren Maxwell
Aug 25, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after week 1:

- Class AAAAAA started this season the way it ended the last one -- Colquitt County on top in the ratings and a number of teams vying for the number two spot. Last week's contender, North Gwinnett, was easily dispatched by the Packers 45-14 in the Corky Kell Classic, making room for McEachern. However, less than a touchdown separates McEachern from the next six teams, one of which is North Gwinnett.

- McEachern will have a chance to improve their rating soon, however, as their game against Buford in week 3 moves into the highest rated matchup of the season. Buford is currently rated behind only Colquitt County and is, as usual, the most dominant team in any classification, leading their nearest contender, Sandy Creek, by over two touchdowns.

- The biggest jump in the ratings belongs to Pace Academy, who improved nearly 13 points after a surprising 24-0 victory over traditional power Lovett. As a result, Lovett suffered the largest drop in the ratings, falling off by nearly 14 points.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 78.81%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 93 of 97 total games including 1 ties (96.39%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.32 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 4.20

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 1-0 100.88 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 1-0 82.95
2 McEachern 1-0 90.14 2 Ware County 1-0 78.08
3 Norcross 1-0 86.48 3 Kell 1-0 75.87
4 Archer 1-0 86.10 4 Coffee 1-0 74.80
5 Grayson 0-0 85.73 5 Mays 1-0 73.70
6 Dacula 1-0 84.99 6 Creekside 1-0 73.41
7 North Gwinnett 0-1 84.78 7 Gainesville 0-0 73.04
8 Mill Creek 1-0 84.05 8 Stockbridge 1-0 70.06
9 Camden County 1-0 80.52 9 Allatoona 0-1 68.80
10 Peachtree Ridge 0-1 79.61 10 East Paulding 1-0 68.31
11 Lovejoy 0-0 78.94 11 Stephenson 1-0 68.00
12 Tucker 0-1 78.64 12 South Paulding 1-0 66.37
13 Milton 0-0 78.37 13 Glynn Academy 1-0 65.06
14 Valdosta 0-1 78.33 14 Carver (Columbus) 1-0 64.94
15 Etowah 1-0 75.91 15 Warner Robins 0-0 64.69
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 1-0 97.12 1 Washington County 0-0 81.87
2 Sandy Creek 1-0 81.17 2 Calhoun 0-0 81.29
3 Marist 0-0 75.47 3 Blessed Trinity 0-0 73.95
4 St. Pius X 0-0 72.02 4 Jefferson 1-0 68.65
5 Cartersville 0-0 71.09 5 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-0 66.61
6 Griffin 0-0 70.79 6 Cedar Grove 1-0 62.16
7 Woodward Academy 0-0 68.95 7 Hart County 0-0 61.09
8 Whitewater 0-0 65.57 8 Peach County 0-0 60.71
9 Burke County 1-0 62.50 9 Elbert County 0-0 59.57
10 Mary Persons 0-0 61.72 10 Central (Carrollton) 1-0 58.18
11 Thomas County Central 0-0 60.96 11 Westside (Macon) 0-0 57.33
12 Carrollton 0-1 60.81 12 Cook 0-0 55.93
13 Cairo 0-0 60.08 13 Pierce County 0-0 53.76
14 North Oconee 0-1 58.66 14 Dodge County 1-0 52.44
15 West Laurens 1-0 57.88 15 Appling County 0-0 51.71
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 1-0 75.03 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 1-0 59.76
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 0-1 70.98 2 Mount Paran Christian 1-0 57.12
3 Fitzgerald 1-0 62.96 3 Marion County 0-0 53.51
4 Vidalia 1-0 62.66 4 Aquinas 1-0 52.22
5 Brooks County 0-1 58.54 5 Calvary Day 1-0 50.28
6 Lovett 0-1 56.04 6 Hawkinsville 0-0 49.16
7 Pace Academy 1-0 51.58 7 Irwin County 0-0-1 48.17
8 Thomasville 0-1 50.07 8 Charlton County 0-0 46.31
9 Dublin 1-0 46.84 9 Landmark Christian 1-0 46.12
10 Lamar County 0-1 45.53 10 Dooly County 0-0 43.96
11 Heard County 0-0 45.43 11 Mount Pisgah Christian 1-0 43.55
12 Washington-Wilkes 0-0 45.04 12 Savannah Christian 0-1 43.22
13 Macon County 0-0 44.98 13 Prince Avenue Christian 0-0 42.03
14 Bowdon 0-1 44.65 14 Tattnall Square 0-0 41.97
15 Early County 0-0-1 43.58 15 Clinch County 1-0 41.81

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 1-0 100.88 84.78 5
2 [1] Buford 8-AAAA 1-0 97.12 -
3 [2] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 1-0 90.14 78.64 12
4 [3] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 1-0 86.48 78.33 14
5 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 1-0 86.10 62.91 44
6 [5] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 0-0 85.73 -
7 [6] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 1-0 84.99 75.01 20
8 [7] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 0-1 84.78 100.88 1
9 [8] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 1-0 84.05 64.89 38
10 [1] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 1-0 82.95 77.80 16
11 [1] Washington County 3-AAA 0-0 81.87 -
12 [2] Calhoun 6-AAA 0-0 81.29 -
13 [2] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 1-0 81.17 53.25 74
14 [9] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 1-0 80.52 -
15 [10] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 0-1 79.61 -
16 [11] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 0-0 78.94 -
17 [12] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 0-1 78.64 90.14 2
18 [13] Milton 5-AAAAAA 0-0 78.37 -
19 [14] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 0-1 78.33 86.48 3
20 [2] Ware County 3-AAAAA 1-0 78.08 62.73 45
21 [15] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 1-0 75.91 58.60 57
22 [3] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 75.87 60.81 51
23 [3] Marist 6-AAAA 0-0 75.47 -
24 [16] Walton 5-AAAAAA 1-0 75.41 65.63 36
25 [17] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 1-0 75.07 54.17 73
26 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 1-0 75.03 66.79 34
27 [4] Coffee 3-AAAAA 1-0 74.80 58.66 56
28 [18] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 1-0 74.42 69.17 29
29 [3] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 73.95 -
30 [5] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 73.70 67.36 31
31 [19] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 0-1 73.61 78.76 11
32 [20] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 1-0 73.45 25.98 152
33 [6] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 73.41 57.85 59
34 [21] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 0-1 73.39 75.88 18
35 [22] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 0-1 73.36 78.62 13
36 [7] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 0-0 73.04 -
37 [23] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 0-0 72.20 -
38 [4] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 0-0 72.02 -
39 [24] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 1-0 71.69 69.19 28
40 [25] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 0-1 71.56 77.90 15
41 [5] Cartersville 7-AAAA 0-0 71.09 -
42 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 0-1 70.98 79.23 10
43 [26] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 0-1 70.82 80.80 8
44 [6] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 70.79 -
45 [8] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 70.06 -
46 [7] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 0-0 68.95 -
47 [9] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 0-1 68.80 72.51 23
48 [4] Jefferson 8-AAA 1-0 68.65 45.91 98
49 [10] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 1-0 68.31 64.60 40
50 [27] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-0 68.26 -
51 [28] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 1-0 68.17 -
52 [11] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 68.00 42.25 113
53 [29] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 0-0 67.87 -
54 [30] Newton 2-AAAAAA 1-0 67.39 49.81 84
55 [5] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 66.61 -
56 [31] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 0-0 66.54 -
57 [12] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 1-0 66.37 54.27 72
58 [8] Whitewater 5-AAAA 0-0 65.57 -
59 [13] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 1-0 65.06 57.37 62
60 [14] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 1-0 64.94 58.74 55
61 [32] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 0-1 64.89 84.05 6
62 [15] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 0-0 64.69 -
63 [16] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 64.38 -
64 [33] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 1-0 64.26 50.02 82
65 [17] Houston County 2-AAAAA 0-0 63.99 -
66 [34] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 1-0 63.23 39.82 121
67 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 1-0 62.96 42.77 110
68 [35] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 0-1 62.91 86.10 4
69 [36] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 0-1 62.79 80.11 9
70 [4] Vidalia 2-AA 1-0 62.66 30.25 141
71 [9] Burke County 3-AAAA 1-0 62.50 47.62 92
72 [6] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 1-0 62.16 44.77 103
73 [10] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 0-0 61.72 -
74 [18] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 61.70 54.94 69
75 [37] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-1 61.44 71.22 25
76 [19] Harris County 1-AAAAA 0-0 61.19 -
77 [38] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 1-0 61.16 28.98 144
78 [7] Hart County 8-AAA 0-0 61.09 -
79 [11] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 0-0 60.96 -
80 [12] Carrollton 5-AAAA 0-1 60.81 75.87 19
81 [8] Peach County 2-AAA 0-0 60.71 -
82 [20] Jones County 2-AAAAA 0-0 60.69 -
83 [39] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 1-0 60.69 38.46 124
84 [13] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 0-0 60.08 -
85 [21] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 1-0 59.91 55.83 66
86 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 1-0 59.76 -
87 [40] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 0-0 59.62 -
88 [22] Alexander 5-AAAAA 0-0 59.58 -
89 [9] Elbert County 8-AAA 0-0 59.57 -
90 [41] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-0 59.28 -
91 [23] Lanier 8-AAAAA 1-0 58.92 50.00 83
92 [42] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 0-0 58.83 -
93 [14] North Oconee 8-AAAA 0-1 58.66 74.80 21
94 [5] Brooks County 1-AA 0-1 58.54 73.89 22
95 [10] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 1-0 58.18 44.65 105
96 [15] West Laurens 2-AAAA 1-0 57.88 45.87 99
97 [24] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 57.41 -
98 [11] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 0-0 57.33 -
99 [25] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-0 57.25 20.09 161
100 [2] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 1-0 57.12 -
101 [6] Lovett 6-AA 0-1 56.04 55.78 67
102 [12] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 55.93 -
103 [26] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 55.50 52.75 75
104 [27] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 55.46 -
105 [43] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-0 54.74 40.40 117
106 [28] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 54.55 60.75 52
107 [44] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 0-1 54.20 63.11 43
108 [29] Hiram 5-AAAAA 0-0 54.01 -
109 [30] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 0-0 53.91 -
110 [16] Grady 6-AAAA 1-0 53.91 42.60 112
111 [31] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 0-1 53.82 -
112 [13] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 53.76 -
113 [45] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 0-1 53.66 69.22 27
114 [3] Marion County 4-A 0-0 53.51 -
115 [17] Troup 5-AAAA 0-0 53.47 -
116 [32] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 53.46 -
117 [33] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 1-0 53.46 44.93 102
118 [34] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 53.25 81.17 7
119 [18] Thomson 3-AAAA 1-0 53.20 43.71 108
120 [19] Wayne County 3-AAAA 0-1 53.17 60.87 50
121 [35] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 0-0 53.04 -
122 [20] Stephens County 8-AAAA 0-0 52.93 -
123 [14] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 1-0 52.44 36.82 126
124 [21] Baldwin 2-AAAA 0-0 52.29 -
125 [4] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 1-0 52.22 11.34 176
126 [36] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 52.16 18.32 164
127 [37] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 51.89 -
128 [22] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 0-0 51.81 -
129 [23] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 1-0 51.75 47.45 95
130 [15] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 51.71 -
131 [16] Adairsville 6-AAA 1-0 51.66 40.14 119
132 [46] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-1 51.64 55.71 68
133 [7] Pace Academy 6-AA 1-0 51.58 51.84 76
134 [38] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 51.54 -
135 [39] Evans 2-AAAAA 1-0 51.53 32.06 136
136 [47] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 0-0 50.80 -
137 [24] Columbia 6-AAAA 0-1 50.75 57.50 61
138 [48] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 1-0 50.42 40.48 116
139 [5] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 1-0 50.28 -5.61 191
140 [25] White County 8-AAAA 0-0 50.19 -
141 [40] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 50.08 62.17 47
142 [8] Thomasville 1-AA 0-1 50.07 62.07 48
143 [26] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 49.97 70.88 26
144 [27] Veterans 2-AAAA 0-0 49.94 -
145 [28] Gilmer 7-AAAA 0-0 49.84 -
146 [29] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 1-0 49.75 39.91 120
147 [6] Hawkinsville 4-A 0-0 49.16 -
148 [17] Callaway 5-AAA 0-1 49.13 57.65 60
149 [41] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 48.96 66.35 35
150 [49] Northview 6-AAAAAA 0-0 48.92 -
151 [42] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 48.87 33.38 133
152 [43] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 48.77 28.52 145
153 [44] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 0-1 48.56 51.31 79
154 [7] Irwin County 2-A 0-0-1 48.17 47.77 90
155 [45] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 0-0 47.76 -
156 [46] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-1 47.62 62.50 46
157 [47] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 47.25 24.33 157
158 [48] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 47.24 27.25 147
159 [49] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 47.06 38.55 123
160 [50] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 47.04 -
161 [30] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 46.96 67.15 32
162 [9] Dublin 3-AA 1-0 46.84 48.86 88
163 [51] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 1-0 46.61 35.76 129
164 [31] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 46.49 -
165 [32] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 0-1 46.45 72.19 24
166 [8] Charlton County 2-A 0-0 46.31 -
167 [9] Landmark Christian 5-A 1-0 46.12 32.50 135
168 [50] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 0-0 46.04 -
169 [33] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 45.85 -
170 [34] Pickens 7-AAAA 0-0 45.83 -
171 [51] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-1 45.82 60.06 53
172 [52] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-1 45.61 63.20 42
173 [10] Lamar County 4-AA 0-1 45.53 45.44 101
174 [35] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 0-0 45.50 -
175 [11] Heard County 5-AA 0-0 45.43 -
176 [12] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 0-0 45.04 -
177 [52] Shaw 1-AAAAA 1-0 45.02 36.07 127
178 [13] Macon County 4-AA 0-0 44.98 -
179 [53] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-1 44.68 54.61 70
180 [18] Laney 3-AAA 0-1 44.66 42.65 111
181 [14] Bowdon 5-AA 0-1 44.65 58.18 58
182 [53] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 0-1 44.60 58.93 54
183 [36] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 1-0 44.56 24.50 156
184 [19] West Hall 7-AAA 0-0 44.53 -
185 [54] Salem 8-AAAAA 0-0 44.34 -
186 [55] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 0-0 44.31 -
187 [56] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 44.07 18.01 165
188 [54] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-1 44.02 67.42 30
189 [10] Dooly County 4-A 0-0 43.96 -
190 [57] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 0-0 43.95 -
191 [15] Early County 1-AA 0-0-1 43.58 43.98 107
192 [11] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 1-0 43.55 29.51 143
193 [37] North Hall 8-AAAA 0-0 43.45 -
194 [20] Ringgold 6-AAA 0-1 43.25 47.56 93
195 [12] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 0-1 43.22 46.89 97
196 [58] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 42.80 -
197 [38] Fayette County 5-AAAA 0-1 42.75 51.25 80
198 [21] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 1-0 42.70 39.03 122
199 [55] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 0-1 42.66 64.88 39
200 [22] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 42.66 -
201 [59] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 0-0 42.56 -
202 [39] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 42.36 -
203 [60] Loganville 8-AAAAA 0-0 42.27 -
204 [16] Darlington 7-AA 1-0 42.18 -
205 [13] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 0-0 42.03 -
206 [40] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 0-0 42.02 -
207 [14] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 0-0 41.97 -
208 [15] Clinch County 2-A 1-0 41.81 19.94 163
209 [17] Rabun County 8-AA 0-1 41.72 64.45 41
210 [41] Howard 2-AAAA 1-0 41.25 41.33 115
211 [18] Bleckley County 4-AA 0-1 41.02 56.63 63
212 [61] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 0-0 40.93 -
213 [42] Lithonia 6-AAAA 0-0 40.44 -
214 [62] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 40.26 49.22 86
215 [43] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 0-0 40.21 -
216 [23] Jackson 2-AAA 0-0 40.20 -
217 [56] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 1-0 40.10 17.27 168
218 [44] Liberty County 3-AAAA 0-1 39.95 50.80 81
219 [19] Jefferson County 3-AA 0-1 39.52 49.01 87
220 [24] Cedartown 5-AAA 0-0 39.47 -
221 [16] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 1-0 39.42 -
222 [63] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 39.37 -
223 [20] Wesleyan 6-AA 1-0 39.29 13.76 173
224 [17] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 0-0 39.03 -
225 [21] Seminole County 1-AA 0-0 38.78 -
226 [18] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 0-0 38.43 -
227 [25] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 0-1 38.40 49.71 85
228 [22] Model 7-AA 1-0 38.23 32.51 134
229 [26] Morgan County 8-AAA 0-0 38.16 -
230 [64] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 38.12 -
231 [23] Bacon County 2-AA 0-0 37.71 -
232 [27] Oconee County 8-AAA 0-0 37.62 -
233 [28] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 0-0 37.23 -
234 [24] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 0-0 36.89 -
235 [65] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 0-0 36.87 -
236 [45] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 36.58 -
237 [19] Commerce 8-A 0-0 36.58 -
238 [20] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 0-0 36.27 -
239 [57] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 0-0 35.97 -
240 [46] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 0-1 35.95 47.47 94
241 [25] Metter 3-AA 1-0 35.90 30.94 139
242 [47] Perry 2-AAAA 0-1 35.72 45.56 100
243 [26] Screven County 3-AA 1-0 35.70 -
244 [58] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-0 35.17 -
245 [66] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 35.12 -
246 [67] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-0 34.96 -
247 [68] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 34.73 -
248 [48] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 34.66 -
249 [21] Pacelli 4-A 0-0 34.55 -
250 [27] Swainsboro 3-AA 0-1 34.45 66.85 33
251 [29] East Hall 7-AAA 0-0 33.92 -
252 [22] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 0-0 33.72 -
253 [23] Brookstone 4-A 0-1 33.70 47.75 91
254 [30] Jackson County 8-AAA 0-0 33.57 -
255 [28] Bremen 5-AA 0-0 33.46 -
256 [59] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-0 33.31 -
257 [49] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 33.29 -
258 [69] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-0 33.24 -
259 [70] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 0-0 33.18 -
260 [71] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 33.18 65.35 37
261 [72] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-0 33.03 -
262 [24] Claxton 3-Div A-A 0-0 33.03 -
263 [25] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 0-0 33.02 -
264 [60] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-0 32.60 -
265 [50] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-0 32.31 -
266 [29] Berrien 1-AA 0-0 31.80 -
267 [30] Coosa 7-AA 0-1 31.45 51.44 78
268 [26] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 1-0 31.36 -1.04 186
269 [51] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 1-0 31.19 -3.79 188
270 [27] Athens Christian 8-A 1-0 31.13 14.51 170
271 [28] Wilcox County 2-A 0-0 31.06 -
272 [31] Dawson County 7-AAA 0-0 30.94 -
273 [73] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-0 30.93 -
274 [52] Chamblee 6-AAAA 0-0 30.79 -
275 [74] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 30.76 0.72 185
276 [32] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 0-0 30.65 -
277 [31] Northeast 4-AA 0-0 30.51 -
278 [33] Rutland 2-AAA 0-0 30.46 -
279 [53] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 0-1 30.18 77.64 17
280 [29] Greenville 4-A 0-0 30.14 -
281 [34] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 1-0 30.03 13.81 172
282 [35] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-0 29.96 -
283 [32] Pelham 1-AA 0-0 29.95 -
284 [75] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 29.93 -
285 [33] Union County 8-AA 0-0 29.92 -
286 [30] Trion 6-Div A-A 1-0 29.62 17.89 167
287 [34] Holy Innocents 6-AA 0-1 29.18 44.67 104
288 [31] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 0-0 29.18 -
289 [36] Kendrick 2-AAA 1-0 29.15 -15.35 193
290 [37] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 28.89 -
291 [32] Turner County 2-A 1-0 28.87 17.25 169
292 [38] Pepperell 5-AAA 0-0 28.85 -
293 [39] Sonoraville 6-AAA 0-0 28.62 -
294 [40] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-1 28.53 51.45 77
295 [41] Rockmart 5-AAA 0-0 28.49 -
296 [42] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 0-1 28.32 34.03 132
297 [43] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 0-0 28.31 -
298 [33] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 0-1 28.31 41.92 114
299 [44] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 0-1 27.86 47.33 96
300 [54] Redan 6-AAAA 1-0 27.77 17.99 166
301 [55] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 27.73 -
302 [76] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-0 27.58 -
303 [35] Manchester 5-AA 0-0 27.32 -
304 [56] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 0-0 27.01 -
305 [36] Bryan County 2-AA 0-1 26.75 31.70 138
306 [57] Madison County 8-AAAA 0-1 26.70 30.47 140
307 [77] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 26.48 -
308 [34] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 0-0 26.45 -
309 [58] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 26.45 -
310 [35] Mitchell County 1-A 0-0 26.44 -
311 [36] George Walton Academy 8-A 0-0 26.32 -
312 [59] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 1-0 26.27 22.50 159
313 [37] Monticello 4-AA 0-0 26.06 -
314 [45] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-0 25.39 -
315 [78] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-0 25.32 4.58 182
316 [37] Telfair County 2-A 0-0 25.15 -
317 [38] Schley County 4-A 0-0 25.07 -
318 [39] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 0-0 24.34 -
319 [61] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 0-1 24.33 44.57 106
320 [38] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-1 24.28 61.44 49
321 [40] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 1-0 24.19 9.12 178
322 [62] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-0 24.14 -
323 [41] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 0-0 24.00 -
324 [46] Franklin County 7-AAA 0-0 23.96 -
325 [47] North Murray 6-AAA 0-0 23.94 -
326 [42] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 0-0 23.68 -
327 [79] Columbus 1-AAAAA 1-0 23.43 10.85 177
328 [43] Taylor County 4-A 0-0 23.40 -
329 [80] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-1 22.51 56.36 65
330 [81] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 22.20 48.27 89
331 [44] Athens Academy 8-A 1-0 22.20 -15.74 194
332 [63] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 0-1 22.18 31.96 137
333 [39] Groves 2-AA 0-0 22.18 -
334 [48] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 22.12 -
335 [49] Fannin County 7-AAA 0-0 21.68 -
336 [50] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 0-0 21.52 -
337 [45] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 0-0 21.36 -
338 [82] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 21.11 -
339 [60] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-0 20.80 -
340 [40] Greene County 8-AA 0-0 20.67 -
341 [51] Banks County 7-AAA 0-0 20.56 -
342 [41] Chattooga 7-AA 0-0 20.48 -
343 [42] Dade County 7-AA 0-0 20.44 -
344 [83] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 20.36 -
345 [61] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 0-1 20.30 40.36 118
346 [46] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 0-0 19.91 -
347 [47] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 1-0 19.64 -4.38 189
348 [84] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 0-0 19.45 -
349 [52] Spencer 2-AAA 0-0 19.07 -
350 [43] Jeff Davis 2-AA 0-0 18.97 -
351 [62] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 0-0 18.80 -
352 [48] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-0 18.38 -
353 [53] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 18.17 -
354 [49] Atkinson County 2-A 0-1 18.01 34.23 131
355 [50] Walker 6-Div A-A 0-1 17.96 43.48 109
356 [44] Long County 2-AA 0-0 17.86 -
357 [54] Southwest 2-AAA 0-0 17.67 -
358 [45] Putnam County 4-AA 1-0 17.64 5.29 180
359 [46] Hapeville 6-AA 0-0 17.61 -
360 [63] LaFayette 7-AAAA 0-0 17.51 -
361 [51] Portal 3-Div A-A 0-0 17.19 -
362 [55] Hephzibah 3-AAA 0-0 16.61 -
363 [56] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 1-0 16.28 4.81 181
364 [52] Randolph-Clay 1-A 1-0 16.09 7.81 179
365 [47] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 0-0 16.04 -
366 [53] Calhoun County 1-A 0-1 15.74 37.61 125
367 [57] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-1 15.54 56.42 64
368 [58] Jordan 2-AAA 0-1 15.04 27.62 146
369 [48] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 0-0 14.19 -
370 [49] Gordon Lee 7-AA 0-1 13.70 25.43 153
371 [64] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-0 13.66 -
372 [59] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 13.55 -
373 [60] Butler 3-AAA 0-0 13.55 -
374 [54] Miller County 1-A 0-0 13.44 -
375 [61] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-1 13.08 35.90 128
376 [55] Terrell County 1-A 0-1 13.06 24.67 155
377 [62] Haralson County 5-AAA 0-0 12.87 -
378 [56] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 0-0 12.73 -
379 [50] East Laurens 3-AA 0-0 12.58 -
380 [64] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 0-0 12.23 -
381 [57] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 0-1 10.31 26.93 149
382 [58] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 0-0 10.11 -
383 [59] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 1-0 9.81 2.17 183
384 [63] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-0 9.44 -
385 [64] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 0-1 9.01 20.47 160
386 [51] Harlem 3-AA 0-1 8.78 29.51 142
387 [65] East Jackson 8-AAA 0-1 6.37 14.00 171
388 [66] Josey 3-AAA 0-0 5.48 -
389 [60] Lakeview Academy 8-A 0-0 5.09 -
390 [52] Crawford County 4-AA† 1-0 5.04 -4.68 190
391 [61] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-1 4.93 19.99 162
392 [65] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 4.89 -
393 [53] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-0 3.83 -
394 [62] Lanier County 2-A 0-1 3.62 11.89 175
395 [54] Temple 5-AA 0-1 3.16 35.55 130
396 [63] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-0 2.65 -
397 [64] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 1-0 2.34 -8.23 192
398 [65] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 0-0 1.83 -
399 [55] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-0 1.12 -
400 [66] Warren County 7-Div B-A 0-1 1.10 13.44 174
401 [56] Armuchee 7-AA 0-1 -0.18 23.83 158
402 [66] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 0-1 -1.42 54.48 71
403 [67] Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-0 -1.66 -
404 [67] Towns County 8-A 0-0 -3.25 -
405 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-1 -3.47 26.57 150
406 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-0 -4.04 -
407 [68] Murray County 6-AAA 0-0 -4.56 -
408 [69] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 0-0 -6.24 -
409 [70] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-1 -7.98 26.99 148
410 [68] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 0-1 -8.87 0.84 184
411 [69] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-1 -11.55 26.39 151
412 [70] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 0-0 -11.80 -
413 [71] Baconton 1-A 0-1 -12.43 -1.86 187
414 [57] Social Circle 8-AA 0-0 -13.12 -
415 [72] Stewart County 1-A† 0-1 -19.54 24.95 154
416 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-0 -20.81 -
417 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-0 -25.40 -
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 96.52 79.39
2 7 - AAAAAA 89.52 68.37
3 8 - AAAAAA 87.91 69.42
4 5 - AAAAAA 83.89 67.95
5 4 - AAAAAA 83.39 67.84
6 2 - AAAAAA 80.29 56.81
7 5 - AAAA 79.83 62.21
8 3 - AAAAA 73.96 53.27
9 3 - AAAAAA 73.62 56.18
10 5 - AAAAA 71.98 54.61
11 2 - AAAAA 71.85 50.94
12 6 - AAAAA 70.89 52.75
6 - Div B - AAAAA 77.27 58.19
6 - Div A - AAAAA 64.80 48.42
13 8 - AAAA 67.49 47.52
14 8 - AAA 66.52 44.80
15 6 - AAAA 66.27 45.39
16 6 - AAAAAA 65.49 47.19
17 2 - AAAA 65.09 49.22
18 8 - AAAAA 65.06 47.11
19 7 - AAAAA 64.91 45.75
7 - Div A - AAAAA 65.46 48.17
7 - Div B - AAAAA 64.15 43.03
20 1 - AAAAA 64.22 43.58
21 4 - AAAAA 63.41 46.29
4 - Div B - AAAAA 64.75 47.09
4 - Div A - AAAAA 62.39 45.51
22 1 - AA 62.88 44.87
23 1 - AAAA 62.17 44.42
1 - Div A - AAAA 65.69 47.71
1 - Div B - AAAA 58.22 41.49
24 3 - AAAA 62.01 46.53
25 6 - AA 61.36 38.54
26 7 - AAAA 61.14 40.69
27 4 - AAA 60.98 34.93
4 - Div B - AAA 68.73 41.30
4 - Div A - AAA 51.52 30.48
28 2 - AA 59.94 31.61
29 5 - A 55.97 31.45
30 5 - AAA 55.80 36.15
31 4 - AAAA 54.73 35.53
4 - Div B - AAAA 58.73 36.88
4 - Div A - AAAA 51.70 34.16
32 1 - AAA 53.78 32.29
1 - Div A - AAA 60.85 42.80
1 - Div B - AAA 39.67 20.07
33 6 - AAA 53.61 21.69
34 2 - AAA 53.52 31.54
35 3 - AAA 53.03 23.99
36 4 - A 51.90 33.54
37 2 - A 49.36 30.99
38 4 - AA 49.07 34.56
39 3 - AA 48.79 31.67
40 5 - AA 48.07 29.18
41 7 - A 45.34 27.19
7 - Div A - A 45.96 29.12
7 - Div B - A 44.41 24.05
42 3 - A 45.04 25.31
3 - Div A - A 49.47 31.08
3 - Div B - A 38.14 16.64
43 6 - A 44.76 28.37
6 - Div A - A 47.71 31.54
6 - Div B - A 42.27 25.97
44 7 - AAA 44.69 28.86
45 8 - AA 43.00 20.95
46 7 - AA 42.51 24.11
47 8 - A 39.04 18.09
48 1 - A 27.15 13.19

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/21 Laney Dublin 0 - 3 2.01 55.0% 0.474
08/21 Lovett Pace Academy 0 - 24 0.26 50.7% 0.495
08/21 Lamar County Howard 19 - 28 0.09 50.2% 0.499
08/21 Irwin County Early County 7 - 7 0.40 51.0% 0.500
08/21 Rome Villa Rica 48 - 44 2.75 56.8% 0.531
08/20 Jenkins Savannah Christian 15 - 14 3.67 59.1% 0.532
08/21 Lassiter Hillgrove 24 - 17 2.49 56.2% 0.533
08/21 New Manchester Douglas County 29 - 28 4.08 60.1% 0.535
08/21 East Paulding Allatoona 17 - 10 3.71 59.2% 0.547
08/21 Northside (Warner Robins) North Cobb 27 - 24 5.15 62.6% 0.548
08/21 Model Lumpkin County 21 - 18 5.71 63.9% 0.551
08/21 Central (Talbotton) Baconton 28 - 26 10.57 74.2% 0.557
08/22 Carver (Columbus) Carver (Atlanta) 28 - 24 6.20 65.0% 0.558
08/22 Norcross Valdosta 34 - 31 8.15 69.3% 0.561
08/22 Northwest Whitfield Ringgold 28 - 18 4.30 60.6% 0.561

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
93.44 09/04 Buford McEachern - 2.78 56.9%
87.17 08/22 Colquitt County North Gwinnett 45 - 14 16.10 83.3%
85.55 09/11 Grayson Archer - 3.82 59.4%
85.31 10/30 Dacula Archer - 3.09 57.7%
85.19 10/30 Mill Creek Norcross - 1.77 54.4%
85.00 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County - 16.17 83.4%
84.78 10/02 Norcross North Gwinnett - 5.89 64.3%
84.76 10/23 Grayson Dacula - 4.93 62.1%
83.89 09/11 McEachern Peachtree Ridge - 6.34 65.3%
83.87 09/04 Dacula Mill Creek - 5.14 62.6%
83.81 09/25 North Gwinnett Mill Creek - 4.93 62.1%
81.28 08/22 McEachern Tucker 50 - 14 11.50 76.0%
80.79 08/22 Norcross Valdosta 34 - 31 8.15 69.3%
80.16 10/23 Norcross Peachtree Ridge - 11.06 75.1%
80.15 08/28 Archer Peachtree Ridge - 10.69 74.4%

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Loren Maxwell

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