Sports

Maxwell Week 2 Summary: Colquitt County leads 1-AAAAAA surge

By Todd Holcomb
Sept 3, 2014

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Week Two:

- Region 1-AAAAAA went 6-0 to push four of its six teams into the Class AAAAAA top eight and pull away from Region 7-AAAAAA in the Competitive Ratings. Valdosta's 31-0 victory over Brookwood in Week 1 is impressive compared to the Norcross 21-10 victory over the Broncos in Week 2.

- Similarly, games between Region 1-AAAAAA foes dominate the best matchups of the season the as Norcross-North Gwinnett game losses some luster after North Cobb's 36-29 defeat of North Gwinnett.

- North Cobb's victory also raises Northside Warner Robins into the all-class top 10. The Eagles dropped North Cobb 38-20 in Week 1.

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 56.6%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 259 of 270 total games including 4 ties (96.67%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.11 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

Home Advantage: -0.29

Rank Cls Rnk Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rnk
1 1 Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 2-0 95.87 81.00 11
2 2 Norcross 7-AAAAAA 2-0 93.50 76.79 17
3 1 Buford 8-AAAA 2-0 93.01 46.37 157
4 3 Camden County 1-AAAAAA 2-0 86.84 45.69 166
5 2 Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 2-0 86.83 61.70 65
6 4 Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 2-0 85.83 61.58 66
7 5 Grayson 8-AAAAAA 1-0 85.76 74.20 23
8 6 North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 1-1 85.04 80.06 16
9 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 1-0 84.34 80.10 15
10 7 Tucker 2-AAAAAA 0-2 82.63 93.50 1
11 8 Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 2-0 82.34 69.58 34
12 9 Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 1-0 82.19 52.42 120
13 3 Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 1-0 81.77 25.17 301
14 10 Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 1-1 81.00 80.90 12
15 11 Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 2-0 80.38 64.23 52
16 2 Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 80.19 69.89 32
17 12 McEachern 4-AAAAAA 0-1 80.02 85.04 5
18 13 Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 1-0 79.89 73.32 28
19 14 North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 1-1 79.81 84.40 6
20 1 Washington County 3-AAA 1-0 79.36 57.42 88
21 15 Dacula 8-AAAAAA 1-0 79.00 74.06 24
22 16 Hughes 3-AAAAAA 2-0 77.90 66.00 48
23 17 Walton 5-AAAAAA 2-0 76.91 67.15 42
24 3 Ware County 3-AAAAA 2-0 75.71 63.00 59
25 4 Gainesville 8-AAAAA 0-1 73.91 85.46 4
26 18 Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 1-1 73.76 69.06 36
27 2 Calhoun 6-AAA 1-0 73.71 59.22 76
28 19 Milton 5-AAAAAA 1-0 73.30 68.03 37
29 20 Etowah 5-AAAAAA 2-0 73.10 58.28 84
30 21 Archer 8-AAAAAA 0-2 73.03 83.22 7
31 4 Marist 6-AAAA 1-0 72.82 - -
32 5 Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 72.17 67.86 38
33 6 Allatoona 5-AAAAA 2-0 72.07 61.81 64
34 5 Burke County 3-AAAA 2-0 71.92 54.37 103
35 7 Coffee 3-AAAAA 2-0 71.45 35.30 240
36 22 Newnan 3-AAAAAA 1-0 71.36 69.14 35
37 23 Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 0-2 70.66 87.77 2
38 24 Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-2 70.64 80.28 14
39 8 East Paulding 5-AAAAA 1-1 69.93 67.27 41
40 3 Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 1-0 69.79 63.18 58
41 6 Carrollton 5-AAAA 0-2 69.43 75.92 19
42 25 South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-1 68.37 76.62 18
43 26 Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 0-1 68.33 73.60 26
44 7 Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 0-1 68.22 82.05 9
45 1 Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 2-0 68.13 56.64 93
46 27 Parkview 8-AAAAAA 1-0 68.07 47.75 144
47 9 Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 67.66 46.04 163
48 28 Tift County 1-AAAAAA 2-0 67.12 37.41 227
49 10 Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 1-0 67.12 48.31 140
50 8 Whitewater 5-AAAA 1-0 66.55 46.46 155
51 29 West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-1 66.21 81.29 10
52 4 Peach County 2-AAA 1-0 66.14 60.92 70
53 30 Marietta 4-AAAAAA 0-2 65.93 75.30 21
54 9 Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 1-0 65.45 43.87 181
55 31 East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 1-0 65.35 46.63 154
56 11 Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 2-0 65.34 58.89 80
57 12 Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 2-0 64.90 38.26 219
58 32 Harrison 4-AAAAAA 2-0 64.02 49.75 132
59 33 Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 2-0 63.90 51.14 126
60 10 Cartersville 7-AAAA 1-0 63.83 38.56 218
61 2 Lovett 6-AA 1-1 63.54 48.25 142
62 11 St. Pius X 6-AAAA 0-1 63.47 70.09 31
63 13 Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 63.40 46.13 161
64 5 Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 1-0 62.76 63.84 54
65 3 Brooks County 1-AA 1-1 62.71 57.83 85
66 6 Jefferson 8-AAA 2-0 62.55 31.38 269
67 34 North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 1-1 62.48 59.33 74
68 14 Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-1 62.01 72.21 30
69 35 Lee County 1-AAAAAA 2-0 61.86 45.69 167
70 36 Roswell 5-AAAAAA 1-1 61.28 66.39 47
71 15 Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 0-1 61.21 66.43 46
72 12 North Hall 8-AAAA 0-0 60.87 - -
73 7 Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 1-0 60.82 47.16 152
74 37 Westlake 3-AAAAAA 1-0 60.03 42.84 188
75 8 Hart County 8-AAA 1-0 59.84 53.76 109
76 16 Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-1 59.74 50.47 128
77 38 Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 2-0 59.56 37.30 229
78 17 Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 59.54 52.34 121
79 18 Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 59.51 74.00 25
80 13 Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 1-0 59.34 44.29 174
81 4 Lamar County 4-AA 1-0-1 59.32 29.57 279
82 19 South Paulding 5-AAAAA 1-0 59.25 39.21 212
83 39 Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-1 59.11 73.47 27
84 5 Benedictine 2-AA 0-1 58.95 67.83 39
85 6 Fitzgerald 1-AA 2-0 58.88 44.58 170
86 40 Newton 2-AAAAAA 2-0 58.77 32.34 259
87 20 Houston County 2-AAAAA 1-0 58.66 47.45 148
88 21 M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 58.60 - -
89 22 Harris County 1-AAAAA 0-1 58.11 - -
90 14 Troup 5-AAAA 1-0 57.94 44.32 173
91 41 Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 0-1 57.83 80.67 13
92 42 South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 1-1 57.83 57.69 87
93 15 Wayne County 3-AAAA 1-1 57.45 55.51 99
94 23 Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 0-0 57.44 - -
95 16 Thomson 3-AAAA 1-1 57.13 63.34 57
96 9 Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 1-0 56.64 34.93 241
97 10 Ringgold 6-AAA 2-0 56.61 31.55 266
98 17 Mary Persons 2-AAAA 1-0 56.50 31.60 265
99 11 Elbert County 8-AAA 1-0 56.11 41.99 194
100 7 Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 1-0 55.80 40.47 207
101 43 Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 1-1 55.71 52.95 116
102 24 Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 55.63 38.84 214
103 25 Loganville 8-AAAAA 1-0 55.32 53.65 110
104 8 Vidalia 2-AA 2-0 55.05 36.23 234
105 18 Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 1-0 55.00 44.15 175
106 12 Laney 3-AAA 1-0 54.61 43.32 185
107 26 Lanier 8-AAAAA 1-0 54.48 51.47 125
108 27 Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 0-1 54.05 60.13 71
109 19 Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 1-0 53.95 43.60 183
110 28 Alexander 5-AAAAA 1-0 53.92 41.62 198
111 20 Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 1-0 53.86 47.45 147
112 29 Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 53.85 25.03 304
113 21 North Oconee 8-AAAA 0-2 53.75 69.64 33
114 30 Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 1-1 53.70 62.07 63
115 22 Monroe Area 8-AAAA 0-1 53.36 55.02 101
116 1 Aquinas 7-Div B-A 2-0 53.20 34.25 244
117 31 Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 52.95 42.78 189
118 13 Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 1-0 52.93 41.94 196
119 32 Jones County 2-AAAAA 1-0 52.77 36.19 235
120 33 Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 52.72 82.48 8
121 23 Grady 6-AAAA 1-0 52.51 42.71 190
122 44 Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-1 52.40 64.19 53
123 34 Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 0-1 52.21 - -
124 14 Callaway 5-AAA 1-1 52.18 46.29 158
125 35 Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 52.07 53.99 108
126 36 Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 52.03 53.51 111
127 45 Lambert 6-AAAAAA 0-1 51.76 54.78 102
128 37 New Manchester 5-AAAAA 1-0 51.50 42.21 192
129 38 Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 50.62 72.81 29
130 46 Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 2-0 50.59 43.88 180
131 39 Effingham County 3-AAAAA 2-0 50.56 40.26 208
132 24 Gilmer 7-AAAA 1-0 50.41 18.82 326
133 25 Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 50.41 61.57 67
134 47 Northview 6-AAAAAA 1-0 50.40 42.16 193
135 48 Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-0 50.09 25.95 297
136 26 Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 0-1 50.09 86.54 3
137 49 North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-1 49.88 63.60 55
138 40 Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-1 49.60 50.88 127
139 41 Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 49.24 29.06 283
140 42 Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-0 49.21 36.07 236
141 27 Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 0-1 49.16 56.90 90
142 43 Hiram 5-AAAAA 1-0 49.06 41.36 200
143 44 Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 49.02 62.48 61
144 15 Cook 1-Div A-AAA 0-1 48.78 66.83 44
145 2 Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 2-0 48.70 37.41 228
146 28 Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-1 48.60 67.41 40
147 29 Perry 2-AAAA 1-0 48.55 44.49 172
148 9 Heard County 5-AA 0-1 48.51 58.58 82
149 16 Adairsville 6-AAA 2-0 47.99 37.91 222
150 10 B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 1-0 47.96 52.48 119
151 3 Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 2-0 47.78 34.56 242
152 45 Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 47.75 54.16 106
153 50 Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-1 47.46 56.89 91
154 46 Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 47.46 53.31 113
155 47 Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 47.33 34.34 243
156 11 Jefferson County 3-AA 0-2 47.32 64.52 51
157 30 Veterans 2-AAAA 0-1 47.16 58.36 83
158 48 McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 47.01 43.50 184
159 51 Centennial 6-AAAAAA 0-1 46.96 60.99 68
160 31 Stephens County 8-AAAA 1-0 46.87 20.89 320
161 49 Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 46.76 66.84 43
162 50 Evans 2-AAAAA 1-0 46.75 27.08 291
163 17 Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 1-0 46.46 25.26 300
164 4 Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 0-2 46.42 55.88 97
165 32 Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 0-2 46.33 66.51 45
166 18 Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 0-1 46.27 57.75 86
167 5 Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 1-0 46.22 7.55 372
168 6 Marion County 4-A 1-0 46.15 21.21 318
169 52 Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-2 46.08 75.60 20
170 53 Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-1 46.00 59.27 75
171 33 Baldwin 2-AAAA 1-0 45.91 19.79 324
172 34 Columbia 6-AAAA 0-1 45.81 47.75 145
173 7 Charlton County 2-A 1-0 45.81 34.15 246
174 54 South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-1 45.71 47.16 151
175 51 Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 45.40 58.88 81
176 35 Pickens 7-AAAA 1-0 45.34 43.78 182
177 55 Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 1-0 45.24 39.21 211
178 36 Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 1-1 44.78 31.35 270
179 52 LaGrange 1-AAAAA 0-2 44.61 55.06 100
180 12 Early County 1-AA 0-1-1 44.44 48.62 139
181 37 West Laurens 2-AAAA 1-1 44.27 49.23 137
182 8 Landmark Christian 5-A 2-0 44.24 25.55 299
183 38 White County 8-AAAA 0-1 44.07 45.64 168
184 9 Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 1-0 44.06 28.49 284
185 13 Thomasville 1-AA 0-2 44.00 51.81 124
186 56 Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-1 43.89 54.25 104
187 39 Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 1-0 43.81 30.42 276
188 53 Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 43.80 33.00 253
189 57 Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-2 43.79 60.92 69
190 14 Dublin 3-AA 1-1 43.61 43.04 187
191 19 Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 0-1 43.58 65.15 49
192 10 Dooly County 4-A 1-0 43.55 33.45 252
193 11 Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 0-1 42.61 53.50 112
194 15 Seminole County 1-AA 0-0 42.57 - -
195 54 Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 42.54 59.73 73
196 20 Washington 4-Div B-AAA 0-2 42.41 52.27 122
197 12 Irwin County 2-A 1-0-1 42.24 32.94 255
198 40 Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 1-0 42.21 33.96 247
199 16 Bowdon 5-AA 0-1 41.94 52.93 117
200 58 Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-2 41.92 52.71 118
201 59 Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 0-1 41.89 48.92 138
202 60 Duluth 7-AAAAAA 0-2 41.87 53.05 115
203 13 Hawkinsville 4-A 1-0 41.82 33.63 250
204 55 Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-1 41.70 55.82 98
205 21 Cedartown 5-AAA 0-1 41.66 49.35 136
206 56 Paulding County 5-AAAAA 1-0 41.57 28.40 285
207 41 Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 1-1 41.19 31.98 262
208 22 Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 2-0 41.09 21.89 314
209 42 Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 0-1 40.96 62.16 62
210 14 Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 1-0 40.89 16.85 339
211 15 Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 1-1 40.76 56.09 96
212 43 Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 40.65 59.17 77
213 44 Liberty County 3-AAAA 1-1 40.56 40.66 204
214 45 Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 0-0 40.00 - -
215 16 Clinch County 2-A 1-1 39.96 38.24 220
216 17 Darlington 7-AA 1-1 39.24 31.33 272
217 57 Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 39.17 18.72 329
218 18 Metter 3-AA 2-0 39.10 27.95 288
219 58 Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-2 38.92 51.95 123
220 59 Shaw 1-AAAAA 0-2 38.55 54.00 107
221 46 Ridgeland 7-AAAA 1-1 38.50 31.33 271
222 17 Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 1-0 38.43 9.46 364
223 60 Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 38.27 63.53 56
224 61 Salem 8-AAAAA 0-1 38.17 50.30 129
225 23 Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 1-1 38.04 40.51 206
226 47 Lithonia 6-AAAA 1-0 37.82 8.58 367
227 18 Brookstone 4-A 1-0 37.74 31.81 263
228 62 Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 37.65 9.17 366
229 19 Dade County 7-AA 1-0 37.57 - -
230 63 Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 37.32 48.28 141
231 64 Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 37.25 36.41 233
232 24 West Hall 7-AAA 1-0 37.22 14.38 350
233 65 Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 37.09 31.40 268
234 48 Chamblee 6-AAAA 0-1 36.70 37.54 225
235 25 Morgan County 8-AAA 0-1 36.48 53.07 114
236 26 East Hall 7-AAA 1-0 36.32 31.41 267
237 20 McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-2 36.19 54.22 105
238 19 George Walton Academy 8-A 1-0 35.73 6.69 373
239 49 Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-1 35.48 59.02 79
240 27 Rutland 2-AAA 0-1 35.22 56.94 89
241 21 Manchester 5-AA 0-1 34.44 46.10 162
242 66 Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-1 34.18 44.09 177
243 28 Kendrick 2-AAA 2-0 34.07 3.23 387
244 50 Fayette County 5-AAAA 0-2 34.05 47.17 150
245 51 Madison County 8-AAAA 2-0 33.90 21.79 315
246 22 Pace Academy 6-AA 1-1 33.75 47.22 149
247 67 Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 33.67 41.92 197
248 68 Grovetown 2-AAAAA 1-0 33.47 5.10 382
249 23 Bleckley County 4-AA 0-2 33.33 41.45 199
250 20 First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 1-0 33.17 23.36 306
251 21 Wilcox County 2-A 0-1 33.16 43.25 186
252 29 Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-0 33.09 27.86 289
253 69 Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 0-0-1 32.68 26.49 295
254 24 Model 7-AA 2-0 32.66 22.84 309
255 22 Mitchell County 1-A 1-0 32.50 22.22 313
256 25 Screven County 3-AA 1-0 32.46 - -
257 26 Rabun County 8-AA 1-1 32.36 41.97 195
258 70 South Effingham 3-AAAAA 0-1 32.32 37.75 223
259 52 Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-1 32.31 49.80 131
260 30 Rockmart 5-AAA 1-0 32.04 21.56 316
261 31 Jackson 2-AAA 0-1 31.90 56.79 92
262 27 Holy Innocents 6-AA 0-2 31.82 46.23 159
263 28 Wesleyan 6-AA 1-1 31.71 27.04 292
264 29 Macon County 4-AA 0-1 31.69 40.90 202
265 30 Bremen 5-AA 0-1 31.62 39.53 210
266 23 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 0-1 31.52 37.45 226
267 24 Johnson County 3-Div B-A 0-1 31.46 43.91 179
268 32 Dawson County 7-AAA 0-1 31.10 36.80 231
269 61 Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 1-1 30.95 35.61 238
270 25 Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 0-1 30.90 33.45 251
271 71 Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-1 30.76 40.85 203
272 53 Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 1-0 30.72 12.72 356
273 33 North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-1 30.71 44.10 176
274 26 Trion 6-Div A-A 2-0 30.64 10.43 360
275 31 Bacon County 2-AA 1-0 30.57 7.92 371
276 54 Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 1-0 30.40 18.40 332
277 72 Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 0-1 30.40 62.85 60
278 34 Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-1 30.25 49.50 135
279 27 Commerce 8-A 1-0 29.98 13.38 353
280 32 Northeast 4-AA 0-1 29.64 26.78 294
281 28 Turner County 2-A 1-0 29.27 14.44 349
282 33 Bryan County 2-AA 0-1 29.14 38.80 215
283 35 Jackson County 8-AAA 0-1 28.91 34.20 245
284 36 Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 1-0 28.86 14.84 347
285 73 River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 28.60 59.85 72
286 34 Swainsboro 3-AA 0-2 28.20 49.56 133
287 37 Pepperell 5-AAA 0-1 28.11 41.28 201
288 74 Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-1 28.11 43.95 178
289 75 Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 0-1 27.78 33.78 248
290 76 Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-1 27.71 38.87 213
291 38 Central (Macon) 2-AAA 1-0 27.68 20.36 322
292 39 Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-1 27.56 32.80 256
293 29 Taylor County 4-A 0-0-1 27.28 22.38 311
294 30 Pacelli 4-A 1-0 27.12 18.79 327
295 40 Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 0-1-1 26.78 39.71 209
296 41 Southwest 2-AAA 1-0 26.48 29.35 280
297 42 Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-2 26.48 56.37 94
298 35 Coosa 7-AA 0-1 26.30 49.53 134
299 31 Claxton 3-Div A-A 0-1 26.17 38.80 216
300 32 Greenville 4-A 1-0 26.10 15.34 343
301 62 Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 1-1 25.81 23.09 308
302 55 Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 0-2 25.46 74.45 22
303 43 Lumpkin County 7-AAA 0-1 25.27 32.37 258
304 44 Oconee County 8-AAA 1-0 25.19 3.23 386
305 45 Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 0-1 24.97 46.17 160
306 33 Athens Christian 8-A 1-1 24.75 17.60 336
307 77 Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-2 24.73 36.50 232
308 78 Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-0 24.29 5.10 381
309 46 McNair 4-Div A-AAA 1-0 24.26 14.93 346
310 47 Spencer 2-AAA 0-1 24.19 64.60 50
311 48 Beach 1-Div B-AAA 2-0 23.61 11.12 358
312 36 Pelham 1-AA 1-0 23.38 -9.53 397
313 34 Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 0-1 23.29 48.07 143
314 56 Howard 2-AAAA 0-1-1 23.06 45.95 164
315 35 Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 0-1 22.99 44.54 171
316 37 East Laurens 3-AA 0-0-1 22.67 27.58 290
317 57 Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-1 22.51 32.79 257
318 36 King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-0 22.38 - -
319 79 Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 21.96 11.50 357
320 37 Athens Academy 8-A 1-1 21.86 6.41 375
321 38 Miller County 1-A 0-1 21.50 46.44 156
322 38 Berrien 1-AA 0-1 21.45 42.53 191
323 63 Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-1 21.39 32.06 260
324 49 North Murray 6-AAA 0-1 21.26 31.75 264
325 50 Franklin County 7-AAA 0-1 21.19 47.16 153
326 39 Greene County 8-AA 1-0 20.76 17.81 334
327 40 Gordon Lee 7-AA 1-1 20.71 19.81 323
328 39 Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 1-0 20.69 10.02 362
329 41 Union County 8-AA 1-0 20.67 -4.95 393
330 40 Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 0-1 20.66 27.97 287
331 51 Sonoraville 6-AAA 0-1 20.41 32.95 254
332 42 Chattahoochee County 5-AA 1-0 19.74 25.03 303
333 41 Telfair County 2-A 1-0 19.71 6.28 376
334 42 Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 0-1 19.50 45.62 169
335 52 South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-1 19.00 30.89 273
336 80 Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 18.70 30.70 274
337 64 Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 0-1 18.61 59.07 78
338 53 Fannin County 7-AAA 0-1 18.53 50.12 130
339 43 Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 0-1 18.50 26.83 293
340 81 Columbus 1-AAAAA 1-0 18.46 8.24 369
341 44 Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 1-1 18.25 5.34 379
342 58 LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-0 17.93 6.06 377
343 45 Walker 6-Div A-A 0-1 17.77 32.00 261
344 59 Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 1-0 17.69 12.82 355
345 43 Putnam County 4-AA 1-1 17.52 9.60 363
346 60 Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 1-1 17.49 2.61 389
347 54 Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 0-2 16.56 47.53 146
348 46 Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 0-2 16.55 40.60 205
349 44 Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-0 16.26 11.07 359
350 82 Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-0 15.81 5.24 380
351 83 North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 15.71 -9.09 396
352 55 Haralson County 5-AAA 0-1 15.64 26.39 296
353 47 Atkinson County 2-A 2-0 15.61 9.26 365
354 45 Chattooga 7-AA 0-1 15.26 38.80 217
355 61 Redan 6-AAAA 0-2 15.23 25.04 302
356 46 Long County 2-AA 0-1 15.14 29.15 282
357 47 Groves 2-AA 1-0 14.93 -5.85 394
358 48 Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 2-0 14.88 6.45 374
359 62 Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 0-2 14.67 35.56 239
360 49 Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-0 14.42 8.50 368
361 50 Portal 3-Div A-A 1-0 14.35 0.44 391
362 51 Terrell County 1-A 0-2 14.14 37.03 230
363 63 Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 0-1 13.94 56.32 95
364 52 Calhoun County 1-A 1-1 13.76 25.69 298
365 53 Strong Rock Christian 5-A 2-0 13.35 3.70 384
366 56 Banks County 7-AAA 0-1 13.09 29.69 278
367 48 Monticello 4-AA 0-1 12.53 17.40 337
368 57 Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 0-1 12.43 30.42 275
369 58 Butler 3-AAA 0-0 11.81 - -
370 64 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 0-1 11.79 22.25 312
371 59 Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 0-1 11.68 18.70 330
372 65 Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 11.43 13.47 352
373 54 Treutlen 3-Div B-A 0-1 11.41 15.18 345
374 55 Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 1-1 11.37 8.21 370
375 56 Schley County 4-A 0-0 10.50 - -
376 60 Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 0-2 10.44 28.06 286
377 84 North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-2 9.73 29.93 277
378 66 Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 9.65 - -
379 57 Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 0-1 9.17 38.13 221
380 61 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-1 8.98 20.41 321
381 85 Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-2 8.87 37.73 224
382 62 Jordan 2-AAA 0-1 8.53 18.75 328
383 58 Lanier County 2-A 0-2 8.21 22.50 310
384 49 Jeff Davis 2-AA 0-1 8.09 15.91 341
385 67 New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 0-2 7.26 45.92 165
386 50 Hapeville 6-AA 0-1 6.98 36.02 237
387 63 Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-1 6.35 18.22 333
388 64 Murray County 6-AAA 1-0 6.13 17.79 335
389 59 Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 0-1 5.98 19.41 325
390 60 Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 2-0 5.94 -6.20 395
391 68 Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-1 5.67 23.31 307
392 51 Temple 5-AA 0-1 5.63 18.54 331
393 65 Hephzibah 3-AAA 0-1 5.54 16.10 340
394 52 Harlem 3-AA 0-2 5.39 29.18 281
395 66 East Jackson 8-AAA 1-1 5.19 2.22 390
396 61 St. Francis 6-Div B-A 1-0 3.54 -31.53 402
397 53 Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-1 2.94 24.90 305
398 62 Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-1 1.49 14.59 348
399 54 Armuchee 7-AA 0-2 0.15 21.30 317
400 67 Josey 3-AAA 0-1 0.14 14.05 351
401 68 Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-1 -0.91 17.20 338
402 63 Warren County 7-Div B-A 1-1 -1.56 2.80 388
403 64 Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-0 -1.59 - -
404 65 Lakeview Academy 8-A 0-1 -2.09 4.90 383
405 66 Towns County 8-A 0-1 -4.66 20.97 319
406 69 Islands 1-Div B-AAA 0-1 -5.56 15.22 344
407 55 K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-1 -9.09 15.71 342
408 67 Baconton 1-A 1-1 -9.24 5.79 378
409 68 Central (Talbotton) 4-A 1-1 -11.80 -11.08 398
410 69 Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-2 -11.92 10.15 361
411 56 Crawford County 4-AA† 1-1 -12.93 -14.41 399
412 57 Social Circle 8-AA 0-1 -17.35 13.05 354
413 70 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 0-2 -17.60 -3.79 392
414 71 North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 1-0 -21.54 -30.05 401
415 72 Stewart County 1-A† 0-1 -21.90 33.78 249
416 69 Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-1 -30.34 -21.83 400
417 73 Providence Christian 8-A 0-1 -31.82 3.25 385
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Rating Average Rating
1 1-AAAAAA 97.57 80.45
2 7-AAAAAA 91.06 69.60
3 8-AAAAAA 84.71 67.79
4 4-AAAAAA 83.99 68.88
5 5-AAAA 82.88 64.37
6 2-AAAAAA 81.64 56.97
7 5-AAAAAA 80.75 64.63
8 3-AAAAAA 76.30 58.26
9 3-AAAAA 75.42 57.41
10 8-AAAA 70.17 52.08
11 5-AAAAA 69.82 51.48
12 6-AAAAA 68.33 52.34
6-Div B-AAAAA 72.54 55.78
6-Div A-AAAAA 64.46 49.30
13 8-AAAAA 68.31 49.16
14 2-AAAAA 67.89 45.95
15 3-AAAA 67.59 50.54
16 6-AAAAAA 67.28 50.40
17 1-AAAA 63.22 44.45
1-Div A-AAAA 67.42 47.55
1-Div B-AAAA 58.85 41.73
18 6-AAAA 63.04 44.60
19 8-AAA 62.62 39.94
20 1-AA 61.91 42.88
21 7-AAAAA 61.77 42.25
7-Div B-AAAAA 62.00 38.32
7-Div A-AAAAA 61.63 45.24
22 4-AAAAA 61.63 44.88
4-Div B-AAAAA 63.46 46.86
4-Div A-AAAAA 60.00 42.94
23 6-AA 61.21 35.69
24 1-AAAAA 60.46 38.81
25 2-AAAA 59.84 44.22
26 4-AAAA 59.76 37.34
4-Div B-AAAA 65.40 40.36
4-Div A-AAAA 55.63 33.97
27 4-AAA 59.44 34.99
4-Div B-AAA 66.07 41.67
4-Div A-AAA 50.59 30.90
28 7-AAAA 58.46 37.68
29 3-AAA 58.27 24.34
30 5-AAA 55.76 37.39
31 6-AAA 55.45 21.87
32 2-AAA 54.83 33.12
33 2-AA 52.85 29.85
34 3-AA 49.50 32.15
35 5-AA 49.26 31.19
36 5-A 48.82 27.53
37 1-AAA 48.63 30.23
1-Div A-AAA 54.21 37.58
1-Div B-AAA 38.99 22.08
38 4-A 48.06 29.89
39 2-A 47.48 29.65
40 4-AA 46.83 29.42
41 3-A 44.58 22.74
3-Div A-A 47.77 26.59
3-Div B-A 40.11 17.45
42 7-A 44.50 24.96
7-Div B-A 45.04 23.02
7-Div A-A 44.14 26.13
43 7-AA 42.64 25.35
44 7-AAA 42.05 26.12
45 8-AA 41.70 18.79
46 6-A 38.16 22.37
6-Div A-A 41.74 26.58
6-Div B-A 34.90 19.02
47 8-A 38.13 15.93
48 1-A 29.95 15.20

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
8/22 Lamar County Howard 19 - 19 35.96 0.973 0.161
8/29 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 21 - 22 11.66 0.762 0.331
8/22 Athens Christian Strong Rock Christian 7 - 8 11.11 0.752 0.340
8/29 North Gwinnett North Cobb 29 - 36 4.93 0.621 0.421
8/29 Hardaway Chattahoochee County 19 - 22 5.29 0.629 0.425
8/29 Callaway B.E.S.T. Academy 7 - 14 4.52 0.611 0.428
8/29 Northeast Southwest 16 - 20 2.86 0.571 0.460
8/29 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 24 - 24 6.18 0.650 0.477
8/29 Taylor County East Laurens 27 - 27 4.90 0.620 0.485
8/29 Lovett Westminster (Atlanta) 10 - 13 1.07 0.527 0.487
8/22 Early County Irwin County 7 - 7 2.49 0.562 0.496
8/22 West Laurens Thomasville 42 - 35 0.56 0.514 0.508
8/29 Druid Hills Chamblee 22 - 14 0.84 0.521 0.512
8/22 Rockdale County Heritage (Conyers) 28 - 26 1.28 0.532 0.514
8/22 Southwest DeKalb Columbia 13 - 12 1.94 0.548 0.519

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.51 11/7 Colquitt County Camden County - 8.74 70.6%
88.57 10/3 Colquitt County Lowndes - 9.75 72.6%
87.42 10/3 Norcross North Gwinnett - 8.75 70.6%
86.29 10/10 Camden County Lowndes - 1.30 53.3%
85.27 8/23 Norcross Tucker 32 - 29 10.86 74.8%
84.77 10/17 Colquitt County Valdosta - 13.82 79.9%
84.15 10/3 Camden County Valdosta - 4.20 60.4%
83.79 10/31 Norcross Mill Creek - 12.20 77.2%
83.73 10/31 Lowndes Valdosta - 3.78 59.3%
83.50 8/23 Colquitt County Mill Creek 31 - 14 14.87 81.6%
82.79 9/5 Buford McEachern - 12.70 78.1%
82.55 9/26 North Gwinnett Mill Creek - 4.33 60.7%
82.40 10/31 Tucker Lovejoy - 0.44 51.1%
82.32 10/24 Norcross Peachtree Ridge - 13.90 80.1%
82.10 9/5 North Gwinnett Hillgrove - 4.95 62.1%

About the Author

Todd Holcomb

More Stories

The Latest

Charlie Puth, Coco Jones, Brandi Carlile

How Brandi Carlile, Coco Jones and Charlie Puth are preparing for the Super Bowl pregame stage

12m ago

In dealing Porzingis, Hawks gained flexibility and time to develop Kuminga

23m ago

Measles outbreak prompts health alert in World Cup host Jalisco, Mexico

26m ago

Keep Reading

The Win Column: The correct Super Bowl team to root for

Morehouse fined after Tuskegee basketball coach led off court in handcuffs

Weekend Reflections: DOJ’s Epstein files release is problem for NFL team owner

Featured

MARTA Series - Hyosub

Armour Yards endpoint for Clifton bus rapid transit could add decade to project

Republican outsider’s $50M bet remakes Georgia governor’s race

Classic City’s ‘town-gown’ ties tested by University of Georgia decisions