Sports

Maxwell Week 5 Summary: Brookwood shakes up AAAAAAA

By Loren Maxwell
Sept 18, 2017

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 418 teams throughout the 2017 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Brookwood dumped Colquitt County 42-25 to upend the Class AAAAAAA ratings, dropping the Packers to number five while Archer stepped up as Grayson's biggest challenger. Look for the Grayson-Archer match up on Oct 13 (the highest rated of the season) to be a possible preview of the state title game. Whichever wins will most like start on the lower left side of the bracket while the other will start on the lower right. Of course there will be at least four other serious competitors (Mill Creek, Lowndes, Colquitt County, McEachern) along with a handful of dark horses to contend with as well.

- Lowndes is now the favorite to win Region 1-AAAAAAA, however they don't quite match their impressive teams of a decade ago in spite of their big victories. Look for them to roll through the next three games over weaker opponents before facing their first true test at Tift County.

- Alan Chadwick secured his 354th by coaching Marist to a 34-17 win over Woodward Academy. The victory moves Chadwick into a tie with Robert Davis as the second all-time winningest coach in Georgia high school football history. It also puts Marist at the distant number two spot in Class AAAA behind small-school powerhouse Cartersville, but that spot is crowded, with six teams rated within a touchdown of the War Eagles.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 27.69%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 730 of 774 total games including 0 tie(s) (94.32%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.44 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 0.54

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 3-0 99.31 1 Tucker 3-1 75.81
2 Archer 4-0 87.57 2 Lee County 5-0 75.48
3 Mill Creek 3-1 87.01 3 Mays 3-1 74.28
4 Lowndes 4-0 86.31 4 Coffee 3-0 72.37
5 Colquitt County 4-1 84.81 5 Glynn Academy 1-2 68.78
6 McEachern 2-2 84.12 6 Northside (Warner Robins) 3-1 68.35
7 Walton 4-0 80.07 7 Harrison 2-2 66.34
8 Tift County 5-0 78.76 8 Allatoona 2-2 66.25
9 North Gwinnett 3-1 78.54 9 Stephenson 2-2 65.05
10 Brookwood 2-2 78.36 10 Valdosta 1-3 64.41
11 Roswell 1-2 75.26 11 Hughes 3-1 64.09
12 South Forsyth 4-0 74.05 12 Douglas County 4-0 61.40
13 Norcross 1-3 72.80 13 Dalton 3-1 61.32
14 Lassiter 4-0 70.90 14 Alexander 2-1 60.86
15 North Paulding 4-0 70.48 15 Dacula 1-3 59.79
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 2-1 85.42 1 Cartersville 4-0 89.36
2 Rome 3-0 77.69 2 Marist 4-0 68.86
3 Stockbridge 4-0 76.45 3 Thomson 3-0 68.56
4 Starr's Mill 4-0 69.44 4 Sandy Creek 3-1 65.76
5 Warner Robins 4-0 68.45 5 Woodward Academy 3-1 63.61
6 Carrollton 3-0 68.30 6 Jefferson 3-1 62.31
7 Jones County 4-0 66.17 7 Blessed Trinity 4-1 61.98
8 Kell 1-3 64.52 8 Mary Persons 3-2 57.70
9 Bainbridge 3-1 64.11 9 Burke County 4-0 56.48
10 Griffin 4-0 62.31 10 Ridgeland 4-0 55.04
11 Ware County 0-2 62.30 11 Cairo 2-2 51.96
12 Wayne County 3-0 61.08 12 St. Pius X 0-4 51.37
13 Dutchtown 3-1 58.17 13 Spalding 1-2 51.10
14 East Paulding 1-3 55.88 14 Cedartown 4-0 50.21
15 Eagle's Landing 3-1 54.82 15 West Laurens 2-2 49.32
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 3-1 73.83 1 Benedictine 4-0 79.34
2 Cedar Grove 4-0 73.43 2 Callaway 4-0 61.83
3 Calhoun 3-1 66.39 3 Hapeville Charter 3-1 61.42
4 Peach County 3-1 65.36 4 Thomasville 4-0 60.57
5 Lovett 1-3 54.51 5 Rabun County 3-0 58.65
6 Crisp County 3-0 54.11 6 Fitzgerald 1-3 56.13
7 Westminster (Atlanta) 1-3 53.70 7 Brooks County 3-0 55.86
8 Pace Academy 1-2 48.53 8 Dodge County 3-0 51.44
9 Westside (Macon) 2-2 45.01 9 Heard County 4-1 51.29
10 Bremen 4-0 44.91 10 Jefferson County 4-0 49.48
11 Jenkins 3-0 44.29 11 Screven County 3-0 47.55
12 Jackson 2-2 41.08 12 Swainsboro 3-1 45.42
13 Monroe Area 4-0 40.26 13 Southwest 2-1 41.94
14 Monroe 1-2 39.88 14 Vidalia 1-2 41.26
15 Liberty County 1-2 39.62 15 Pepperell 2-2 40.82
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Macon County 2-1 56.14 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 5-0 69.13
2 Irwin County 3-1 53.94 2 Prince Avenue Christian 4-0 49.90
3 Clinch County 2-2 48.22 3 Wesleyan 4-1 47.61
4 Manchester 4-0 47.52 4 Mount Paran Christian 3-1 44.72
5 Mount Zion (Carroll) 4-0 41.33 5 Calvary Day 3-0 44.33
6 Commerce 3-0 40.09 6 Stratford Academy 3-0 42.83
7 Charlton County 3-0 39.63 7 Athens Academy 3-0 41.87
8 Turner County 3-1 37.75 8 Tattnall Square 3-0 41.77
9 Emanuel County Institute 3-1 37.63 9 Darlington 2-2 38.14
10 McIntosh County Academy 1-1 35.88 10 Mount Pisgah Christian 3-1 36.99
11 Washington-Wilkes 1-2 34.92 11 Fellowship Christian 3-1 33.37
12 Trion 3-1 33.76 12 Aquinas 1-2 30.25
13 Marion County 4-0 33.76 13 First Presbyterian 3-1 28.74
14 Taylor County 3-0 31.63 14 Athens Christian 1-2 28.38
15 Dooly County 0-4 31.62 15 Brookstone 3-1 27.29

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 - AAAAAAA 3-0 99.31 83.58 1
2 [1] Cartersville 5 - AAAA 4-0 89.36 66.06 24
3 [2] Archer 8 - AAAAAAA 4-0 87.57 73.99 9
4 [3] Mill Creek 6 - AAAAAAA 3-1 87.01 74.33 7
5 [4] Lowndes 1 - AAAAAAA 4-0 86.31 66.24 22
6 [1] Buford 8 - AAAAA 2-1 85.42 67.46 19
7 [5] Colquitt County 1 - AAAAAAA 4-1 84.81 75.42 6
8 [6] McEachern 3 - AAAAAAA 2-2 84.12 75.88 4
9 [7] Walton 4 - AAAAAAA 4-0 80.07 62.56 31
10 [1] Benedictine 2 - AA 4-0 79.34 48.77 109
11 [8] Tift County 1 - AAAAAAA 5-0 78.76 54.93 67
12 [9] North Gwinnett 6 - AAAAAAA 3-1 78.54 72.09 11
13 [10] Brookwood 7 - AAAAAAA 2-2 78.36 79.29 2
14 [2] Rome 7 - AAAAA 3-0 77.69 56.59 56
15 [3] Stockbridge 4 - AAAAA 4-0 76.45 57.81 46
16 [1] Tucker 4 - AAAAAA 3-1 75.81 57.84 45
17 [2] Lee County 1 - AAAAAA 5-0 75.48 45.97 125
18 [11] Roswell 4 - AAAAAAA 1-2 75.26 75.59 5
19 [3] Mays 5 - AAAAAA 3-1 74.28 60.51 33
20 [12] South Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 4-0 74.05 53.94 73
21 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 - AAA 3-1 73.83 53.37 75
22 [2] Cedar Grove 5 - AAA 4-0 73.43 51.39 88
23 [13] Norcross 7 - AAAAAAA 1-3 72.80 78.61 3
24 [4] Coffee 1 - AAAAAA 3-0 72.37 57.93 42
25 [14] Lassiter 4 - AAAAAAA 4-0 70.90 52.11 83
26 [15] North Paulding 3 - AAAAAAA 4-0 70.48 48.73 110
27 [4] Starr's Mill 3 - AAAAA 4-0 69.44 54.57 70
28 [16] Parkview 7 - AAAAAAA 2-2 69.30 66.71 20
29 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5 - A 5-0 69.13 39.38 175
30 [2] Marist 7 - AAAA 4-0 68.86 56.63 55
31 [5] Glynn Academy 2 - AAAAAA 1-2 68.78 73.80 10
32 [17] North Cobb 3 - AAAAAAA 3-1 68.66 57.73 48
33 [3] Thomson 3 - AAAA 3-0 68.56 48.28 114
34 [5] Warner Robins 1 - AAAAA 4-0 68.45 55.63 62
35 [6] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 - AAAAAA 3-1 68.35 48.32 112
36 [6] Carrollton 7 - AAAAA 3-0 68.30 44.92 135
37 [18] Milton 5 - AAAAAAA 3-1 67.72 57.87 44
38 [19] Hillgrove 3 - AAAAAAA 2-2 67.46 69.03 16
39 [20] Central Gwinnett 7 - AAAAAAA 3-1 67.16 64.52 27
40 [21] Newton 8 - AAAAAAA 3-1 66.62 54.12 72
41 [3] Calhoun 6 - AAA 3-1 66.39 45.82 128
42 [7] Harrison 6 - AAAAAA 2-2 66.34 60.86 32
43 [8] Allatoona 6 - AAAAAA 2-2 66.25 63.45 30
44 [7] Jones County 4 - AAAAA 4-0 66.17 42.34 147
45 [4] Sandy Creek 5 - AAAA 3-1 65.76 51.37 89
46 [4] Peach County 4 - AAA 3-1 65.36 53.43 74
47 [9] Stephenson 4 - AAAAAA 2-2 65.05 66.24 23
48 [22] Westlake 2 - AAAAAAA 1-3 65.02 71.66 12
49 [8] Kell 7 - AAAAA 1-3 64.52 69.23 15
50 [10] Valdosta 1 - AAAAAA 1-3 64.41 67.92 18
51 [23] Mountain View 6 - AAAAAAA 4-0 64.27 24.85 298
52 [9] Bainbridge 1 - AAAAA 3-1 64.11 52.80 78
53 [11] Hughes 5 - AAAAAA 3-1 64.09 48.25 115
54 [24] West Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 3-1 63.96 58.93 39
55 [5] Woodward Academy 4 - AAAA 3-1 63.61 48.20 116
56 [25] South Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAAA 1-3 62.40 68.89 17
57 [6] Jefferson 8 - AAAA 3-1 62.31 45.83 127
58 [10] Griffin 3 - AAAAA 4-0 62.31 44.93 134
59 [11] Ware County 2 - AAAAA 0-2 62.30 71.11 13
60 [7] Blessed Trinity 7 - AAAA 4-1 61.98 49.65 103
61 [2] Callaway 5 - AA 4-0 61.83 38.73 180
62 [26] East Coweta 2 - AAAAAAA 3-1 61.77 48.96 106
63 [3] Hapeville Charter 6 - AA 3-1 61.42 50.91 92
64 [12] Douglas County 5 - AAAAAA 4-0 61.40 37.24 198
65 [13] Dalton 6 - AAAAAA 3-1 61.32 45.03 133
66 [27] Collins Hill 6 - AAAAAAA 2-2 61.31 58.69 40
67 [28] Marietta 3 - AAAAAAA 3-1 61.09 56.52 57
68 [12] Wayne County 2 - AAAAA 3-0 61.08 49.14 105
69 [14] Alexander 5 - AAAAAA 2-1 60.86 50.83 93
70 [4] Thomasville 1 - AA 4-0 60.57 41.00 157
71 [29] Etowah 4 - AAAAAAA 2-3 60.16 56.80 53
72 [15] Dacula 8 - AAAAAA 1-3 59.79 66.53 21
73 [30] Woodstock 4 - AAAAAAA 2-2 59.79 59.55 36
74 [16] Brunswick 2 - AAAAAA 2-1 59.01 55.91 61
75 [5] Rabun County 8 - AA 3-0 58.65 38.76 179
76 [31] Camden County 1 - AAAAAAA 2-2 58.51 57.04 52
77 [13] Dutchtown 4 - AAAAA 3-1 58.17 48.93 107
78 [17] Alpharetta 7 - AAAAAA 3-1 57.91 49.73 102
79 [8] Mary Persons 2 - AAAA 3-2 57.70 43.83 141
80 [18] Lovejoy 4 - AAAAAA 2-3 57.56 57.89 43
81 [19] Sequoyah 6 - AAAAAA 3-1 57.45 50.75 96
82 [20] Northgate 5 - AAAAAA 2-2 57.40 51.92 85
83 [9] Burke County 3 - AAAA 4-0 56.48 32.82 237
84 [32] Peachtree Ridge 6 - AAAAAAA 0-4 56.43 74.10 8
85 [1] Macon County 4 - A 2-1 56.14 47.85 118
86 [6] Fitzgerald 1 - AA 1-3 56.13 57.77 47
87 [14] East Paulding 7 - AAAAA 1-3 55.88 63.91 29
88 [7] Brooks County 1 - AA 3-0 55.86 38.25 189
89 [21] Lanier 8 - AAAAAA 2-2 55.20 55.09 66
90 [10] Ridgeland 6 - AAAA 4-0 55.04 35.31 214
91 [15] Eagle's Landing 4 - AAAAA 3-1 54.82 43.14 144
92 [5] Lovett 5 - AAA 1-3 54.51 65.43 25
93 [6] Crisp County 1 - AAA 3-0 54.11 38.25 188
94 [2] Irwin County 2 - A 3-1 53.94 48.53 111
95 [7] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 - AAA 1-3 53.70 59.79 35
96 [22] Effingham County 2 - AAAAAA 2-2 53.54 50.54 97
97 [23] Jonesboro 4 - AAAAAA 2-3 53.08 64.46 28
98 [16] Clarke Central 8 - AAAAA 3-1 53.01 43.93 140
99 [17] Carver (Atlanta) 6 - AAAAA 3-1 52.14 35.90 208
100 [33] Wheeler 2 - AAAAAAA 2-2 52.08 56.44 58
101 [34] North Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 3-1 52.06 44.33 138
102 [11] Cairo 1 - AAAA 2-2 51.96 52.57 81
103 [24] Winder-Barrow 8 - AAAAAA 4-0 51.66 38.25 187
104 [8] Dodge County 3 - AA 3-0 51.44 40.96 158
105 [35] Lambert 5 - AAAAAAA 1-3 51.39 55.58 63
106 [12] St. Pius X 8 - AAAA 0-4 51.37 70.98 14
107 [9] Heard County 5 - AA 4-1 51.29 34.28 222
108 [13] Spalding 2 - AAAA 1-2 51.10 57.66 49
109 [25] Creekview 6 - AAAAAA 2-2 50.96 48.29 113
110 [14] Cedartown 5 - AAAA 4-0 50.21 28.89 270
111 [18] Flowery Branch 8 - AAAAA 3-1 49.92 37.18 200
112 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 - A 4-0 49.90 16.16 355
113 [19] Southwest DeKalb 5 - AAAAA 2-2 49.63 51.94 84
114 [10] Jefferson County 4 - AA 4-0 49.48 28.47 273
115 [26] Centennial 7 - AAAAAA 1-3 49.43 56.39 60
116 [27] Heritage (Conyers) 3 - AAAAAA 3-1 49.34 41.24 155
117 [15] West Laurens 2 - AAAA 2-2 49.32 46.06 124
118 [36] Newnan 2 - AAAAAAA 1-3 49.10 59.93 34
119 [20] Arabia Mountain 5 - AAAAA 3-1 49.05 30.66 255
120 [16] Troup 5 - AAAA 4-0 48.92 25.32 297
121 [21] Villa Rica 7 - AAAAA 3-1 48.56 38.41 185
122 [8] Pace Academy 5 - AAA 1-2 48.53 51.28 90
123 [28] Houston County 1 - AAAAAA 1-4 48.39 59.16 37
124 [3] Clinch County 2 - A 2-2 48.22 43.39 143
125 [17] Upson-Lee 2 - AAAA 2-2 47.80 45.75 130
126 [29] Gainesville 8 - AAAAAA 1-2 47.77 51.59 87
127 [30] Richmond Hill 2 - AAAAAA 3-0 47.66 28.44 275
128 [3] Wesleyan 5 - A 4-1 47.61 29.47 264
129 [11] Screven County 4 - AA 3-0 47.55 4.17 403
130 [4] Manchester 4 - A 4-0 47.52 22.45 320
131 [18] Eastside 4 - AAAA 3-1 47.15 35.98 207
132 [19] Northwest Whitfield 6 - AAAA 3-1 47.14 30.19 260
133 [22] Banneker 6 - AAAAA 4-0 46.64 34.01 229
134 [20] Chapel Hill 5 - AAAA 3-1 46.59 38.65 182
135 [31] New Manchester 5 - AAAAAA 2-2 46.43 50.92 91
136 [23] Thomas County Central 1 - AAAAA 2-2 45.75 44.77 136
137 [21] Oconee County 8 - AAAA 2-1 45.74 39.68 171
138 [12] Swainsboro 2 - AA 3-1 45.42 44.27 139
139 [37] Kennesaw Mountain 3 - AAAAAAA 3-1 45.27 36.73 202
140 [9] Westside (Macon) 4 - AAA 2-2 45.01 43.59 142
141 [22] Americus-Sumter 1 - AAAA 2-2 44.96 47.33 119
142 [10] Bremen 6 - AAA 4-0 44.91 29.32 265
143 [23] Northside (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 4-0 44.85 29.19 267
144 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6 - A 3-1 44.72 24.63 300
145 [24] Paulding County 7 - AAAAA 1-3 44.67 55.26 64
146 [5] Calvary Day 3 - A 3-0 44.33 7.10 395
147 [11] Jenkins 3 - AAA 3-0 44.29 32.82 236
148 [24] Baldwin 3 - AAAA 3-1 44.00 30.42 257
149 [32] Johns Creek 7 - AAAAAA 1-3 43.97 52.47 82
150 [38] Shiloh 8 - AAAAAAA 0-4 43.38 64.97 26
151 [25] West Hall 7 - AAAA 4-1 43.00 31.11 249
152 [6] Stratford Academy 7 - A 3-0 42.83 16.11 356
153 [25] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 - AAAAA 2-3 42.65 42.11 149
154 [39] Campbell 2 - AAAAAAA 2-2 42.19 50.01 101
155 [26] Riverwood 6 - AAAAA 1-3 42.12 50.82 94
156 [13] Southwest 3 - AA 2-1 41.94 39.74 169
157 [7] Athens Academy 8 - A 3-0 41.87 19.61 336
158 [8] Tattnall Square 7 - A 3-0 41.77 2.34 409
159 [5] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 - A 4-0 41.33 9.19 385
160 [14] Vidalia 2 - AA 1-2 41.26 42.09 150
161 [26] Stephens County 8 - AAAA 2-2 41.14 40.44 162
162 [12] Jackson 4 - AAA 2-2 41.08 34.15 225
163 [27] Ola 4 - AAAAA 1-3 41.07 54.14 71
164 [15] Pepperell 7 - AA 2-2 40.82 40.23 164
165 [28] Hiram 7 - AAAAA 2-2 40.51 37.56 197
166 [13] Monroe Area 8 - AAA 4-0 40.26 22.62 319
167 [33] Bradwell Institute 2 - AAAAAA 4-0 40.11 25.69 294
168 [6] Commerce 8 - A 3-0 40.09 16.87 350
169 [16] Bacon County 2 - AA 4-0 39.93 28.57 272
170 [29] McIntosh 3 - AAAAA 4-0 39.92 21.64 326
171 [17] Spencer 5 - AA 3-1 39.88 30.75 251
172 [14] Monroe 1 - AAA 1-2 39.88 46.90 121
173 [34] Pope 7 - AAAAAA 1-3 39.75 57.26 50
174 [40] Cherokee 4 - AAAAAAA 0-4 39.72 56.66 54
175 [7] Charlton County 2 - A 3-0 39.63 23.54 311
176 [15] Liberty County 2 - AAA 1-2 39.62 38.67 181
177 [18] Washington County 3 - AA 1-3 39.57 50.82 95
178 [35] Chattahoochee 7 - AAAAAA 3-1 39.48 34.30 221
179 [41] Pebblebrook 2 - AAAAAAA 2-2 39.35 24.79 299
180 [27] Hardaway 1 - AAAA 1-3 39.25 52.58 80
181 [28] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 - AAAA 4-0 39.22 11.28 377
182 [36] Creekside 5 - AAAAAA 0-4 39.21 54.63 69
183 [30] Whitewater 3 - AAAAA 2-2 39.16 38.84 178
184 [16] Morgan County 8 - AAA 3-1 39.03 29.08 269
185 [17] Dawson County 7 - AAA 2-1 39.01 31.78 243
186 [29] Perry 2 - AAAA 2-1 39.01 37.60 196
187 [30] Pickens 6 - AAAA 2-2 38.87 39.47 173
188 [31] Howard 2 - AAAA 4-1 38.86 29.90 261
189 [37] South Cobb 6 - AAAAAA 1-3 38.55 49.56 104
190 [31] Veterans 1 - AAAAA 2-3 38.51 40.45 161
191 [32] Loganville 8 - AAAAA 0-4 38.51 47.86 117
192 [32] Carver (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 0-4 38.33 45.46 131
193 [33] Locust Grove 4 - AAAAA 1-3 38.32 46.40 122
194 [9] Darlington 6 - A 2-2 38.14 42.91 145
195 [38] River Ridge 6 - AAAAAA 3-1 37.92 31.80 242
196 [8] Turner County 2 - A 3-1 37.75 30.72 252
197 [42] Meadowcreek 7 - AAAAAAA 4-0 37.65 25.63 295
198 [33] White County 7 - AAAA 4-1 37.63 27.23 285
199 [9] Emanuel County Institute 3 - A 3-1 37.63 14.64 363
200 [39] Evans 3 - AAAAAA 2-2 37.19 22.74 315
201 [34] Harris County 1 - AAAAA 2-2 37.04 35.64 211
202 [10] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 - A 3-1 36.99 24.42 304
203 [18] Sonoraville 6 - AAA 3-1 36.94 24.63 301
204 [34] Salem 4 - AAAA 3-1 36.89 24.43 303
205 [35] Columbia 5 - AAAAA 2-2 36.43 44.57 137
206 [19] Rockmart 7 - AA 2-2 36.36 29.27 266
207 [35] LaGrange 5 - AAAA 0-4 36.04 58.69 41
208 [40] Drew 4 - AAAAAA 1-3 35.97 50.15 100
209 [41] Northview 7 - AAAAAA 0-3 35.90 55.10 65
210 [10] McIntosh County Academy 3 - A 1-1 35.88 37.78 194
211 [36] Cedar Shoals 8 - AAAAA 3-0 35.58 23.58 310
212 [37] Maynard Jackson 6 - AAAAA 2-2 35.40 39.46 174
213 [36] Westover 1 - AAAA 2-2 35.17 34.05 227
214 [11] Washington-Wilkes 7 - A 1-2 34.92 42.56 146
215 [19] Pierce County 2 - AAA 1-2 34.81 38.08 192
216 [20] Dublin 3 - AA 2-2 34.79 31.50 246
217 [38] North Springs 6 - AAAAA 3-0 34.64 20.92 330
218 [21] Elbert County 8 - AA 3-1 34.54 25.41 296
219 [20] Ringgold 6 - AAA 2-2 34.42 34.56 219
220 [42] Sprayberry 6 - AAAAAA 1-3 34.30 41.82 152
221 [21] Union County 7 - AAA 4-0 34.28 9.41 384
222 [22] Adairsville 6 - AAA 2-2 34.22 33.02 233
223 [43] Cambridge 7 - AAAAAA 0-4 33.81 48.81 108
224 [37] Central (Carrollton) 5 - AAAA 2-2 33.80 36.21 204
225 [12] Trion 6 - A 3-1 33.76 21.48 329
226 [13] Marion County 4 - A 4-0 33.76 10.31 379
227 [23] Pike County 4 - AAA 3-1 33.69 21.80 324
228 [44] North Atlanta 7 - AAAAAA 3-1 33.62 28.61 271
229 [24] Appling County 2 - AAA 0-2 33.39 50.35 98
230 [11] Fellowship Christian 6 - A 3-1 33.37 18.18 342
231 [22] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 - AA 2-3 33.00 40.47 160
232 [45] M.L. King 4 - AAAAAA 2-2 32.98 34.02 228
233 [46] South Paulding 5 - AAAAAA 0-4 32.89 59.06 38
234 [38] Columbus 1 - AAAA 1-2 32.81 45.09 132
235 [39] Union Grove 4 - AAAAA 2-3 32.47 39.22 176
236 [23] Berrien 1 - AA 3-2 32.33 31.38 247
237 [40] Fayette County 3 - AAAAA 1-3 32.13 38.92 177
238 [41] Morrow 3 - AAAAA 3-1 32.05 30.52 256
239 [24] Douglass 6 - AA 1-2 32.05 36.11 206
240 [42] Statesboro 2 - AAAAA 0-3 32.04 50.25 99
241 [14] Taylor County 4 - A 3-0 31.63 1.33 412
242 [15] Dooly County 4 - A 0-4 31.62 51.69 86
243 [25] Cook 1 - AAA 0-4 31.61 57.10 51
244 [47] Greenbrier 3 - AAAAAA 4-0 31.47 11.37 376
245 [26] East Hall 7 - AAA 3-1 31.31 21.75 325
246 [25] Washington 6 - AA 2-2 31.24 39.57 172
247 [48] Lakeside (Evans) 3 - AAAAAA 0-3 31.15 52.98 77
248 [26] Early County 1 - AA 2-2 31.02 30.68 253
249 [43] Rockdale County 8 - AAAAAAA 1-2 30.92 32.87 234
250 [43] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 - AAAAA 2-2 30.65 37.11 201
251 [49] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 - AAAAAA 1-3 30.29 40.12 167
252 [12] Aquinas 7 - A 1-2 30.25 30.68 254
253 [44] South Effingham 2 - AAAAA 0-4 30.07 54.80 68
254 [50] Habersham Central 8 - AAAAAA 1-3 29.99 33.39 231
255 [27] Southeast Bulloch 3 - AAA 0-3 29.89 53.26 76
256 [27] Coosa 7 - AA 3-1 29.33 22.36 321
257 [28] Northeast 3 - AA 3-0 29.05 15.39 359
258 [16] Lincoln County 7 - A 1-2 29.00 29.15 268
259 [39] North Oconee 8 - AAAA 1-3 28.93 38.54 183
260 [45] New Hampstead 2 - AAAAA 2-1 28.90 26.78 288
261 [46] Grady 6 - AAAAA 0-3 28.87 38.36 186
262 [13] First Presbyterian 7 - A 3-1 28.74 15.36 360
263 [28] Redan 5 - AAA 1-3 28.64 45.94 126
264 [51] Grovetown 3 - AAAAAA 1-3 28.61 40.21 165
265 [47] Hampton 4 - AAAAA 1-3 28.46 41.66 153
266 [14] Athens Christian 8 - A 1-2 28.38 36.20 205
267 [29] Toombs County 2 - AA 3-0 27.92 14.04 367
268 [52] Tri-Cities 5 - AAAAAA 0-3 27.81 52.78 79
269 [30] Chattooga 7 - AA 0-4 27.78 41.05 156
270 [17] Pelham 1 - A 3-1 27.69 2.64 407
271 [40] Chestatee 7 - AAAA 3-2 27.45 24.31 305
272 [48] Lithonia 5 - AAAAA 1-3 27.39 35.50 213
273 [15] Brookstone 4 - A 3-1 27.29 17.93 345
274 [53] Mundy's Mill 4 - AAAAAA 0-4 27.12 46.91 120
275 [49] Riverdale 3 - AAAAA 1-3 27.10 32.82 235
276 [50] Cass 7 - AAAAA 0-4 26.96 35.58 212
277 [16] Savannah Christian 3 - A 1-2 26.62 28.45 274
278 [51] Walnut Grove 8 - AAAAA 1-3 26.53 40.33 163
279 [41] North Clayton 4 - AAAA 1-3 26.44 32.03 240
280 [29] Brantley County 2 - AAA 0-3 26.27 40.82 159
281 [54] Alcovy 3 - AAAAAA 2-2 26.13 29.71 262
282 [18] Telfair County 2 - A 1-3 26.01 30.87 250
283 [44] Forsyth Central 5 - AAAAAAA 0-4 25.80 34.73 216
284 [17] Mount de Sales 7 - A 3-1 25.79 15.93 357
285 [31] Bleckley County 3 - AA 3-1 25.75 13.92 368
286 [30] Central (Macon) 4 - AAA 0-3 25.72 36.60 203
287 [55] Dunwoody 7 - AAAAAA 2-1 25.70 22.27 322
288 [18] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 - A 4-0 25.68 11.25 378
289 [52] Miller Grove 5 - AAAAA 3-2 25.55 17.22 347
290 [31] Jackson County 8 - AAA 3-2 25.39 23.83 309
291 [19] Holy Innocents 5 - A 1-3 25.16 39.73 170
292 [42] Shaw 1 - AAAA 1-2 25.09 34.21 224
293 [32] Tattnall County 2 - AAA 1-2 25.00 27.97 279
294 [53] Lithia Springs 6 - AAAAA 1-3 24.99 41.52 154
295 [19] Mitchell County 1 - A 3-1 24.91 12.27 374
296 [33] Worth County 1 - AAA 0-5 24.78 42.08 151
297 [20] Bowdon 6 - A 1-3 24.50 35.28 215
298 [34] North Hall 7 - AAA 0-4 24.16 38.44 184
299 [43] Luella 4 - AAAA 0-5 24.01 46.17 123
300 [35] Dougherty 1 - AAA 1-4 23.65 34.07 226
301 [20] George Walton Academy 8 - A 3-0 23.47 2.86 406
302 [44] Southeast Whitfield 6 - AAAA 4-0 23.43 -5.13 415
303 [32] Lamar County 5 - AA 0-4 23.37 38.12 191
304 [36] Hart County 8 - AAA 0-4 23.35 56.43 59
305 [45] Duluth 6 - AAAAAAA 2-2 23.18 23.48 312
306 [37] Franklin County 8 - AAA 1-3 23.12 35.83 209
307 [33] Jordan 5 - AA 1-3 22.72 38.16 190
308 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 - AAAAAAA 1-3 22.45 28.00 278
309 [21] Greene County 7 - A 2-2 22.31 19.81 334
310 [34] Jeff Davis 2 - AA 2-1 22.21 16.71 351
311 [38] Towers 5 - AAA 2-2 22.01 22.71 317
312 [47] Discovery 6 - AAAAAAA 1-3 21.87 30.27 259
313 [22] Johnson County 3 - A 3-0 21.80 5.88 400
314 [35] Putnam County 8 - AA 3-1 21.51 17.98 343
315 [21] Hebron Christian Academy 8 - A 2-1 21.38 8.83 387
316 [39] North Murray 6 - AAA 2-2 21.37 17.07 349
317 [36] Laney 4 - AA 0-4 21.07 45.75 129
318 [45] Madison County 8 - AAAA 1-3 20.71 27.91 281
319 [22] Savannah Country Day 3 - A 2-1 20.61 9.61 382
320 [54] Decatur 6 - AAAAA 1-3 20.54 31.67 244
321 [37] Metter 2 - AA 2-2 20.41 18.82 340
322 [38] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 - AA 1-2 20.22 26.30 292
323 [23] Walker 6 - A 1-3 19.95 30.36 258
324 [46] Richmond Academy 3 - AAAA 3-1 19.33 7.78 390
325 [39] Model 7 - AA 0-4 19.10 34.22 223
326 [24] Landmark Christian 5 - A 0-4 18.79 34.70 217
327 [56] Apalachee 8 - AAAAAA 1-3 18.63 29.68 263
328 [23] Miller County 1 - A 2-1 18.26 5.92 398
329 [40] Therrell 6 - AA 1-3 18.25 33.84 230
330 [24] Montgomery County 3 - A 2-1 18.14 17.94 344
331 [25] Our Lady of Mercy 5 - A 1-3 17.99 42.23 148
332 [41] Banks County 8 - AA 1-3 17.51 26.57 290
333 [42] Dade County 7 - AA 2-2 16.88 19.74 335
334 [25] Wilkinson County 7 - A 1-3 16.83 28.29 276
335 [43] Harlem 4 - AA 3-1 16.68 5.89 399
336 [44] Temple 5 - AA 3-1 16.36 2.60 408
337 [40] Windsor Forest 3 - AAA 3-0 16.30 9.87 380
338 [45] South Atlanta 6 - AA 2-3 16.29 27.90 282
339 [41] Beach 3 - AAA 1-1 15.71 21.57 327
340 [26] Jenkins County 3 - A 3-1 15.56 7.51 391
341 [27] Seminole County 1 - A 2-2 15.51 9.47 383
342 [42] Savannah 3 - AAA 1-1 15.38 13.18 371
343 [43] Kendrick 4 - AAA 0-4 15.18 39.98 168
344 [26] Pinecrest Academy 6 - A 0-3 15.08 31.59 245
345 [28] Chattahoochee County 1 - A 2-2 14.40 17.67 346
346 [44] Fannin County 7 - AAA 2-2 13.91 22.75 314
347 [45] Rutland 4 - AAA 0-3 13.57 35.70 210
348 [46] Murray County 6 - AAA 2-2 12.79 12.35 373
349 [29] Schley County 4 - A 2-1 12.13 8.56 388
350 [46] Monticello 8 - AA 0-4 11.98 31.33 248
351 [55] Chamblee 5 - AAAAA 1-3 11.23 22.72 316
352 [47] Henry County 4 - AAAA 0-4 11.16 37.90 193
353 [27] Lakeview Academy 8 - A 1-2 11.08 31.82 241
354 [30] Wilcox County 2 - A 1-2 9.92 24.15 306
355 [47] Glenn Hills 4 - AA 2-2 9.70 14.46 364
356 [31] Hancock Central 7 - A 0-3 9.65 26.51 291
357 [47] Islands 3 - AAA 1-2 9.59 27.44 283
358 [48] Lumpkin County 7 - AAA 0-4 9.53 27.96 280
359 [32] Twiggs County 7 - A 0-4 9.48 26.98 286
360 [33] Atkinson County 2 - A 0-4 9.26 34.68 218
361 [48] Druid Hills 4 - AAAA 1-3 8.65 15.17 361
362 [57] Osborne 6 - AAAAAA† 0-5 8.61 40.12 166
363 [34] Wheeler County 3 - A 3-2 8.58 3.70 404
364 [48] East Laurens 3 - AA 0-4 8.56 26.84 287
365 [35] Gordon Lee 6 - A 1-3 8.50 13.90 369
366 [49] Bryan County 2 - AA 0-2 8.32 16.54 353
367 [36] Towns County 8 - A 2-2 7.86 23.87 308
368 [49] McNair 5 - AAA 2-2 7.78 -2.57 414
369 [28] Whitefield Academy 6 - A 2-2 7.42 22.13 323
370 [37] Treutlen 3 - A 1-3 7.33 14.19 366
371 [29] St. Francis 6 - A 1-2 7.11 20.90 331
372 [50] Long County 2 - AAA 0-3 6.90 15.89 358
373 [38] Terrell County 1 - A 0-4 6.43 23.00 313
374 [49] Cross Creek 3 - AAAA 2-2 5.16 1.62 411
375 [50] Josey 4 - AA 1-2 4.84 15.14 362
376 [58] Forest Park 4 - AAAAAA† 0-5 4.83 32.49 238
377 [51] Butler 4 - AA 1-3 4.70 20.60 332
378 [39] Warren County 7 - A 0-4 4.67 26.76 289
379 [30] Strong Rock Christian 5 - A 2-2 4.50 2.95 405
380 [40] Hawkinsville 4 - A 0-4 4.30 18.87 339
381 [41] Lanier County 2 - A 1-2 4.00 16.27 354
382 [52] Social Circle 8 - AA 1-3 3.87 22.68 318
383 [51] East Jackson 8 - AAA 1-2 3.09 7.23 393
384 [50] LaFayette 6 - AAAA 2-2 3.05 5.65 401
385 [42] Randolph-Clay 1 - A 2-1 2.94 -12.13 416
386 [51] Hephzibah 3 - AAAA 2-2 2.86 5.42 402
387 [52] Haralson County 6 - AAA 0-3 2.56 25.91 293
388 [1] Georgia Military College 7 - A† 3-1 2.34 0.85 413
389 [53] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 - AAA 1-3 2.22 21.56 328
390 [43] Portal 3 - A 0-3 2.08 19.87 333
391 [44] Crawford County 4 - A 2-1 1.75 -13.20 417
392 [45] Claxton 3 - A 0-4 1.42 24.58 302
393 [52] Gilmer 6 - AAAA 0-4 1.31 33.18 232
394 [53] Armuchee 7 - AA 1-3 0.63 13.40 370
395 [31] North Cobb Christian 6 - A 1-3 -0.06 18.54 341
396 [46] Central (Talbotton) 4 - A 1-3 -0.51 17.17 348
397 [32] Christian Heritage 6 - A 0-3 -0.62 19.42 337
398 [54] Stone Mountain 5 - AAA 1-3 -1.23 32.41 239
399 [33] King's Ridge Christian 6 - A 1-3 -2.34 6.61 397
400 [47] Greenville 4 - A 0-3 -2.37 34.42 220
401 [34] Riverside Military Academy 8 - A 0-4 -3.81 16.60 352
402 [48] Berkmar 7 - AAAAAAA 0-4 -5.77 37.19 199
403 [56] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 - AAAAA 0-4 -5.90 24.10 307
404 [35] Providence Christian 8 - A 1-2 -6.37 7.18 394
405 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 - AAA 0-3 -6.38 28.16 277
406 [48] Calhoun County 1 - A 0-3 -7.26 14.23 365
407 [54] Westside (Augusta) 4 - AA 0-3 -9.71 9.07 386
408 [56] Groves 3 - AAA 0-3 -9.75 9.74 381
409 [36] Pacelli 4 - A 0-4 -13.03 27.35 284
410 [55] Gordon Central 7 - AA 0-4 -13.76 19.35 338
411 [49] Baconton Charter 1 - A 1-3 -14.09 12.83 372
412 [56] Oglethorpe County 8 - AA 0-3 -14.64 7.27 392
413 [50] Stewart County 1 - A 1-3 -17.01 6.67 396
414 [57] Coahulla Creek 6 - AAA 0-4 -17.15 37.60 195
415 [57] Clarkston 5 - AAAAA† 0-5 -19.64 11.40 375
416 [2] Glascock County 7 - A† 0-5 -28.06 2.02 410
417 [58] Cross Keys 5 - AAAAA† 0-1 -36.95 7.78 389
418 [3] Pataula Charter 1 - A† 0-3 -42.07 -13.56 418

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 8 - AAAAAAA 90.48 64.79
2 1 - AAAAAAA 87.47 78.05
3 6 - AAAAAAA 80.51 58.91
4 3 - AAAAAAA 80.01 66.54
5 4 - AAAAAAA 78.94 65.23
6 1 - AAAAAA 76.81 66.38
7 7 - AAAAAAA 76.43 55.50
8 5 - AAAA 76.14 50.56
9 7 - AAAAA 72.19 50.60
10 5 - AAAAAAA 71.89 57.41
11 5 - AAAAAA 70.97 52.16
12 8 - AAAAA 70.32 40.73
13 4 - AAAAA 69.68 47.87
14 4 - AAAAAA 68.16 46.32
15 6 - AAAAAA 67.65 51.91
16 2 - AAAAAA 65.46 53.72
17 1 - AAAAA 65.02 50.21
18 2 - AAAAAAA 64.28 51.48
19 7 - AAAA 63.85 47.29
20 5 - AAA 63.66 36.84
21 2 - AA 63.33 33.44
22 3 - AAAAA 62.62 41.39
23 1 - AA 60.50 47.84
24 3 - AAAA 60.04 31.98
25 2 - AAAAA 59.39 41.60
26 8 - AAAAAA 59.35 45.27
27 2 - AAAA 58.46 47.30
28 7 - AAA 58.34 29.80
29 8 - AAAA 57.34 41.93
30 5 - A 55.79 26.85
31 7 - AAAAAA 55.47 39.70
32 4 - AAA 54.96 33.31
33 5 - AA 54.79 34.90
34 6 - AAA 53.53 24.29
  6-South - AAA 56.71 38.24
  6-North - AAA 27.76 11.58
35 4 - AAAA 53.37 29.85
36 1 - AAAA 52.75 39.09
37 6 - AAAAA 50.94 35.57
38 6 - AAAA 50.74 31.61
39 2 - A 50.08 28.98
40 6 - AA 49.46 28.70
41 3 - AA 48.55 33.64
42 4 - A 48.22 18.56
  4-Div B - A 44.88 21.40
  4-Div A - A 39.28 14.77
43 1 - AAA 47.81 34.12
44 5 - AAAAA 47.04 33.43
45 3 - AAAAAA 45.87 33.62
46 6 - A 45.49 20.47
  6-Div B - A 40.14 19.78
  6-Div A - A 39.91 21.34
47 8 - A 45.22 21.52
48 8 - AA 45.18 17.85
49 7 - A 43.54 24.89
  7-Div A - A 42.02 27.63
  7-Div B - A 33.94 22.27
50 4 - AA 43.51 15.80
51 3 - A 41.35 19.57
  3-Div A - A 39.33 22.17
  3-Div B - A 31.64 17.59
52 2 - AAA 40.47 28.39
53 8 - AAA 39.88 26.28
54 7 - AA 39.13 21.45
55 3 - AAA 35.31 14.08
56 1 - A 26.90 7.89

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/08 Woodland (Stockbridge) Hampton 14 - 17 13.65 79.7% 0.290
09/08 Gordon Lee Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 7 - 24 6.81 66.4% 0.365
09/15 Colquitt County Brookwood 25 - 42 5.92 64.4% 0.383
08/18 Calhoun Douglass 17 - 14 34.87 97.0% 0.394
09/15 North Cobb East Coweta 35 - 36 7.43 67.8% 0.398
09/16 Drew Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 6 - 17 5.69 63.8% 0.399
09/08 Lovejoy Spalding 41 - 42 6.99 66.8% 0.405
09/15 Aquinas Mount de Sales 3 - 14 4.99 62.2% 0.411
09/08 Habersham Central Franklin County 45 - 46 6.33 65.3% 0.415
08/18 Brookstone Jordan 14 - 22 5.10 62.5% 0.416
09/15 Locust Grove Union Grove 34 - 38 5.32 63.0% 0.422
08/18 East Coweta Lovejoy 21 - 41 3.68 59.1% 0.425
08/25 Strong Rock Christian North Cobb Christian 17 - 20 5.10 62.5% 0.428
09/01 Rockmart Woodland (Cartersville) 30 - 31 5.18 62.7% 0.433
08/31 Valdosta Wayne County 13 - 23 3.87 59.6% 0.434

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.49 10/13 Grayson Archer - 11.20 75.4%
87.29 09/08 Archer Mill Creek 16 - 13 0.02 50.1%
86.27 09/01 Grayson McEachern 12 - 7 15.73 82.8%
85.46 10/27 Lowndes Colquitt County - 2.03 55.1%
85.36 08/19 Mill Creek McEachern 23 - 19 2.90 57.2%
81.33 10/13 Lowndes Tift County - 7.02 66.9%
81.25 09/29 Mill Creek North Gwinnett - 7.94 68.9%
80.92 08/19 Archer Brookwood 25 - 17 9.22 71.5%
80.72 09/15 Colquitt County Brookwood 25 - 42 5.92 64.4%
80.72 10/20 Colquitt County Tift County - 6.59 65.9%
79.25 08/19 Walton North Gwinnett 31 - 28 1.53 53.8%
79.09 08/25 Walton Brookwood 42 - 35 2.25 55.6%
78.17 09/22 Archer Roswell - 11.78 76.5%
78.13 09/01 Colquitt County Tucker 35 - 21 9.54 72.2%
77.61 09/08 Colquitt County Roswell 28 - 0 10.09 73.3%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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