Maxwell Week 4 Summary: Blessed Trinity blasts Benedictine, but rankings hold steady

By Loren Maxwell

Updated Sept 10, 2018

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Blessed Trinity, the second highest rated team in Class AAAA, dismantled Class AA’s top rated team, Benedictine, 38-7 to move within just about a point of Cartersville. This has been the latest move the Titans have made in a steady effort to catch the Purple Hurricanes, who started the season rated nearly two touchdowns better than anyone else in Class AAAA.

- Meanwhile Benedictine, who started the season a touchdown better than anyone in Class AA, now has three teams within that range, including Calhoun, the defending state champion, at less than a half-point behind.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 33.15%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 623 of 648 total games including 0 tie(s) (96.14%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.26 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.30

By Class

AAAAAAA				AAAAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Colquitt County	4-0	95.79	1	Lee County	4-0	81.92
2	Grayson	2-1	92.32	2	Coffee	4-0	74.68
3	North Gwinnett	2-1	90.37	3	Glynn Academy	2-1	72.34
4	Archer	2-1	83.28	4	Tucker	1-2	71.70
5	Parkview	2-0	82.14	5	Harrison	4-0	68.80
6	McEachern	2-1	81.80	6	Creekview	4-0	67.47
7	Walton	3-0	81.37	7	Valdosta	2-2	67.09
8	Lowndes	3-1	78.97	8	Mays	1-2	65.85
9	Milton	3-0	78.86	9	Northside (Warner Robins)	2-2	65.80
10	Mill Creek	2-2	76.46	10	Allatoona	1-2	62.38
11	Brookwood	3-1	75.38	11	Sequoyah	3-0	62.31
12	Tift County	3-1	74.08	12	Alpharetta	1-1	61.42
13	Hillgrove	3-0	73.86	13	Douglas County	2-1	61.13
14	North Cobb	3-0	72.64	14	Brunswick	1-2	58.51
15	South Forsyth	3-1	71.96	15	Dacula	1-2	57.23

AAAAA				AAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Rome	3-0	89.76	1	Cartersville	3-0	85.96
2	Buford	2-1	86.14	2	Blessed Trinity	4-0	84.72
3	Warner Robins	3-0	75.01	3	Marist	3-0	75.32
4	Stockbridge	3-0	74.54	4	Mary Persons	4-0	68.09
5	Jones County	4-0	69.97	5	St. Pius X	3-1	65.63
6	Carrollton	3-0	65.47	6	Troup	3-0	64.52
7	Ware County	3-1	65.25	7	Flowery Branch	3-0	61.37
8	Kell	2-1	65.10	8	Eastside	3-0	60.83
9	Dutchtown	4-0	65.02	9	Burke County	1-2	60.26
10	Wayne County	3-0	63.06	10	Chapel Hill	3-0	59.63
11	Griffin	2-1	61.53	11	Woodward Academy	1-2	56.55
12	Clarke Central	3-1	58.22	12	Thomson	1-2	56.18
13	Southwest DeKalb	4-0	56.55	13	Sandy Creek	2-1	55.15
14	Bainbridge	2-2	55.00	14	Ridgeland	1-2	55.01
15	Veterans	4-0	54.26	15	Oconee County	3-1	53.85

AAA				AA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Benedictine	1-1	72.70	1	Hapeville Charter	2-0	73.25
2	Calhoun	3-0	72.23	2	Thomasville	3-1	62.39
3	Cedar Grove	3-1	71.68	3	Callaway	3-0	59.29
4	Peach County	2-1	69.37	4	Rabun County	2-1	57.53
5	Greater Atlanta Christian	1-2	63.84	5	Brooks County	2-1	57.00
6	Westminster (Atlanta)	2-2	61.45	6	Rockmart	3-0	56.71
7	Monroe Area	4-0	58.44	7	Dodge County	3-0	55.55
8	Jefferson	2-1	56.75	8	Bremen	3-0	55.33
9	Pace Academy	2-2	55.47	9	Fitzgerald	3-1	52.31
10	Lovett	1-3	54.21	10	Washington County	3-0	50.98
11	Dawson County	3-0	48.65	11	Vidalia	3-0	50.02
12	North Hall	3-0	47.17	12	Dublin	3-0	48.88
13	Liberty County	2-1	46.75	13	Heard County	1-2	45.94
14	Crisp County	1-3	46.70	14	Douglass	3-0	42.51
15	Westside (Macon)	2-2	44.61	15	Swainsboro	2-1	41.78

A - Public				A - Private
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Clinch County	3-0	59.98	1	Eagle's Landing Christian	2-1	64.08
2	Irwin County	3-0	58.30	2	Prince Avenue Christian	4-0	53.08
3	Mount Zion (Carroll)	3-0	43.47	3	Athens Academy	3-0	52.74
4	Commerce	3-0	42.88	4	Mount Paran Christian	1-1	47.49
5	Marion County	3-0	37.40	5	Darlington	3-0	45.81
6	Dooly County	1-2	37.03	6	Calvary Day	2-0	43.82
7	Manchester	2-1	36.83	7	George Walton Academy	3-0	41.22
8	Lincoln County	2-1	35.21	8	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	3-0	40.82
9	Pelham	3-0	35.09	9	Aquinas	3-0	39.97
10	Emanuel County Institute	0-3	34.15	10	Fellowship Christian	3-0	38.32
11	Turner County	2-1	34.14	11	Savannah Christian	2-1	37.38
12	Charlton County	2-1	34.12	12	Savannah Country Day	3-0	36.20
13	Mitchell County	2-1	32.70	13	Wesleyan	0-3	35.38
14	Trion	3-0	32.53	14	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	2-1	30.87
15	Macon County	0-2	31.72	15	Stratford Academy	1-2	30.43

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank	Team	Region	Rec	Rating	SchStr	Rank
1 [1]	Colquitt County	1 - AAAAAAA	4-0	95.79	69.24	14
2 [2]	Grayson	8 - AAAAAAA	2-1	92.32	71.72	10
3 [3]	North Gwinnett	6 - AAAAAAA	2-1	90.37	73.01	8
4 [1]	Rome	7 - AAAAA	3-0	89.76	58.56	47
5 [2]	Buford	8 - AAAAA	2-1	86.14	58.65	46
6 [1]	Cartersville	5 - AAAA	3-0	85.96	33.16	249
7 [2]	Blessed Trinity	7 - AAAA	4-0	84.72	66.82	18
8 [4]	Archer	8 - AAAAAAA	2-1	83.28	77.01	4
9 [5]	Parkview	7 - AAAAAAA	2-0	82.14	71.59	11
10 [1]	Lee County	1 - AAAAAA	4-0	81.92	44.09	143
11 [6]	McEachern	3 - AAAAAAA	2-1	81.80	68.99	15
12 [7]	Walton	4 - AAAAAAA	3-0	81.37	60.06	42
13 [8]	Lowndes	1 - AAAAAAA	3-1	78.97	44.27	139
14 [9]	Milton	5 - AAAAAAA	3-0	78.86	73.00	9
15 [10]	Mill Creek	6 - AAAAAAA	2-2	76.46	74.52	6
16 [11]	Brookwood	7 - AAAAAAA	3-1	75.38	62.42	29
17 [3]	Marist	7 - AAAA	3-0	75.32	57.83	52
18 [3]	Warner Robins	1 - AAAAA	3-0	75.01	54.50	71
19 [2]	Coffee	1 - AAAAAA	4-0	74.68	53.66	77
20 [4]	Stockbridge	4 - AAAAA	3-0	74.54	48.65	105
21 [12]	Tift County	1 - AAAAAAA	3-1	74.08	54.13	72
22 [13]	Hillgrove	3 - AAAAAAA	3-0	73.86	53.47	81
23 [1]	Hapeville Charter	6 - AA	2-0	73.25	41.04	173
24 [1]	Benedictine	3 - AAA	1-1	72.70	73.14	7
25 [14]	North Cobb	3 - AAAAAAA	3-0	72.64	55.87	65
26 [3]	Glynn Academy	2 - AAAAAA	2-1	72.34	6.98	391
27 [2]	Calhoun	6 - AAA	3-0	72.23	31.82	262
28 [15]	South Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	3-1	71.96	61.09	36
29 [16]	Norcross	7 - AAAAAAA	1-2	71.95	77.65	3
30 [17]	Marietta	3 - AAAAAAA	1-3	71.74	81.77	1
31 [4]	Tucker	4 - AAAAAA	1-2	71.70	78.58	2
32 [3]	Cedar Grove	5 - AAA	3-1	71.68	57.07	57
33 [18]	Roswell	4 - AAAAAAA	3-0	71.28	51.49	92
34 [5]	Jones County	4 - AAAAA	4-0	69.97	45.91	127
35 [19]	Camden County	1 - AAAAAAA	3-1	69.64	54.04	73
36 [4]	Peach County	4 - AAA	2-1	69.37	65.10	23
37 [5]	Harrison	6 - AAAAAA	4-0	68.80	42.89	158
38 [4]	Mary Persons	2 - AAAA	4-0	68.09	40.04	183
39 [6]	Creekview	6 - AAAAAA	4-0	67.47	45.64	131
40 [7]	Valdosta	1 - AAAAAA	2-2	67.09	60.19	40
41 [20]	Mountain View	6 - AAAAAAA	3-1	66.80	60.46	37
42 [21]	Westlake	2 - AAAAAAA	2-0	66.46	41.77	167
43 [8]	Mays	5 - AAAAAA	1-2	65.85	60.34	39
44 [9]	Northside (Warner Robins)	1 - AAAAAA	2-2	65.80	57.53	53
45 [5]	St. Pius X	8 - AAAA	3-1	65.63	47.12	119
46 [6]	Carrollton	7 - AAAAA	3-0	65.47	44.01	145
47 [7]	Ware County	2 - AAAAA	3-1	65.25	60.40	38
48 [8]	Kell	7 - AAAAA	2-1	65.10	63.24	27
49 [9]	Dutchtown	4 - AAAAA	4-0	65.02	47.45	117
50 [22]	North Paulding	3 - AAAAAAA	3-0	64.82	38.94	197
51 [6]	Troup	5 - AAAA	3-0	64.52	43.66	148
52 [1]	Eagle's Landing Christian	5 - A	2-1	64.08	40.59	178
53 [5]	Greater Atlanta Christian	7 - AAA	1-2	63.84	56.53	60
54 [10]	Wayne County	2 - AAAAA	3-0	63.06	29.61	281
55 [23]	Newton	8 - AAAAAAA	2-1	62.51	49.25	100
56 [2]	Thomasville	1 - AA	3-1	62.39	62.02	31
57 [10]	Allatoona	6 - AAAAAA	1-2	62.38	65.99	21
58 [11]	Sequoyah	6 - AAAAAA	3-0	62.31	41.51	170
59 [24]	Etowah	4 - AAAAAAA	2-2	61.82	58.69	44
60 [11]	Griffin	3 - AAAAA	2-1	61.53	51.95	89
61 [6]	Westminster (Atlanta)	5 - AAA	2-2	61.45	65.41	22
62 [12]	Alpharetta	7 - AAAAAA	1-1	61.42	64.70	24
63 [7]	Flowery Branch	7 - AAAA	3-0	61.37	43.79	147
64 [13]	Douglas County	5 - AAAAAA	2-1	61.13	53.92	74
65 [8]	Eastside	4 - AAAA	3-0	60.83	49.08	102
66 [25]	Collins Hill	6 - AAAAAAA	0-3	60.46	75.71	5
67 [9]	Burke County	3 - AAAA	1-2	60.26	57.07	56
68 [26]	South Gwinnett	8 - AAAAAAA	1-2	60.16	68.72	16
69 [1]	Clinch County	2 - A	3-0	59.98	39.69	186
70 [10]	Chapel Hill	5 - AAAA	3-0	59.63	49.67	96
71 [3]	Callaway	5 - AA	3-0	59.29	-9.53	416
72 [27]	West Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	0-3	59.25	70.46	12
73 [14]	Brunswick	2 - AAAAAA	1-2	58.51	50.61	95
74 [7]	Monroe Area	8 - AAA	4-0	58.44	37.92	207
75 [28]	Woodstock	4 - AAAAAAA	1-2	58.41	61.89	33
76 [2]	Irwin County	2 - A	3-0	58.30	44.25	140
77 [12]	Clarke Central	8 - AAAAA	3-1	58.22	55.17	67
78 [4]	Rabun County	8 - AA	2-1	57.53	44.13	142
79 [15]	Dacula	8 - AAAAAA	1-2	57.23	62.37	30
80 [5]	Brooks County	1 - AA	2-1	57.00	49.66	97
81 [29]	Central Gwinnett	7 - AAAAAAA	1-2	56.82	57.92	51
82 [8]	Jefferson	8 - AAA	2-1	56.75	45.19	133
83 [6]	Rockmart	7 - AA	3-0	56.71	42.55	161
84 [13]	Southwest DeKalb	5 - AAAAA	4-0	56.55	37.73	210
85 [11]	Woodward Academy	4 - AAAA	1-2	56.55	60.09	41
86 [12]	Thomson	3 - AAAA	1-2	56.18	51.60	91
87 [30]	East Coweta	2 - AAAAAAA	0-3	55.65	70.07	13
88 [16]	Dalton	6 - AAAAAA	2-1	55.65	44.45	137
89 [7]	Dodge County	3 - AA	3-0	55.55	41.83	166
90 [31]	Newnan	2 - AAAAAAA	2-2	55.52	53.88	75
91 [32]	Wheeler	2 - AAAAAAA	3-0	55.48	43.39	151
92 [9]	Pace Academy	5 - AAA	2-2	55.47	53.50	80
93 [8]	Bremen	5 - AA	3-0	55.33	45.29	132
94 [13]	Sandy Creek	5 - AAAA	2-1	55.15	40.89	174
95 [14]	Ridgeland	6 - AAAA	1-2	55.01	63.93	25
96 [14]	Bainbridge	1 - AAAAA	2-2	55.00	44.25	141
97 [15]	Veterans	1 - AAAAA	4-0	54.26	40.86	175
98 [10]	Lovett	5 - AAA	1-3	54.21	63.46	26
99 [17]	Stephenson	4 - AAAAAA	2-1	54.12	37.37	214
100 [15]	Oconee County	8 - AAAA	3-1	53.85	48.31	108
101 [33]	Lassiter	4 - AAAAAAA	1-2	53.83	58.66	45
102 [2]	Prince Avenue Christian	8 - A	4-0	53.08	26.15	304
103 [18]	Richmond Hill	2 - AAAAAA	1-2	53.05	58.04	50
104 [3]	Athens Academy	8 - A	3-0	52.74	28.60	286
105 [16]	Cairo	1 - AAAA	1-2	52.65	52.90	87
106 [9]	Fitzgerald	1 - AA	3-1	52.31	40.36	179
107 [17]	Cedartown	5 - AAAA	1-2	52.02	52.37	88
108 [19]	Hughes	5 - AAAAAA	0-3	51.33	66.32	20
109 [16]	Locust Grove	4 - AAAAA	1-3	51.09	66.35	19
110 [10]	Washington County	3 - AA	3-0	50.98	35.30	231
111 [20]	Centennial	7 - AAAAAA	1-2	50.95	59.70	43
112 [21]	Northgate	5 - AAAAAA	1-2	50.74	56.46	61
113 [17]	Thomas County Central	1 - AAAAA	2-1	50.69	45.78	129
114 [18]	West Laurens	2 - AAAA	2-1	50.66	40.03	184
115 [34]	Lambert	5 - AAAAAAA	3-1	50.65	42.65	160
116 [35]	Meadowcreek	7 - AAAAAAA	3-0	50.60	32.12	259
117 [22]	Lanier	8 - AAAAAA	1-2	50.54	53.23	84
118 [23]	Effingham County	2 - AAAAAA	3-1	50.53	25.51	308
119 [36]	Pebblebrook	2 - AAAAAAA	1-2	50.50	57.09	54
120 [18]	Arabia Mountain	5 - AAAAA	2-2	50.34	53.52	79
121 [19]	Banneker	6 - AAAAA	2-1	50.22	48.25	109
122 [19]	Perry	2 - AAAA	4-0	50.14	39.00	194
123 [11]	Vidalia	2 - AA	3-0	50.02	32.30	257
124 [37]	Kennesaw Mountain	3 - AAAAAAA	2-1	49.14	43.47	150
125 [38]	North Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	2-1	48.91	42.92	157
126 [12]	Dublin	3 - AA	3-0	48.88	34.58	238
127 [20]	Starr's Mill	3 - AAAAA	1-2	48.81	46.51	122
128 [11]	Dawson County	7 - AAA	3-0	48.65	30.62	269
129 [39]	Cherokee	4 - AAAAAAA	2-2	48.24	51.75	90
130 [21]	Hiram	7 - AAAAA	2-1	48.15	45.13	134
131 [20]	Howard	2 - AAAA	3-1	47.73	36.96	218
132 [4]	Mount Paran Christian	6 - A	1-1	47.49	36.98	217
133 [12]	North Hall	7 - AAA	3-0	47.17	29.10	284
134 [21]	Spalding	2 - AAAA	2-2	47.08	46.43	124
135 [22]	East Paulding	7 - AAAAA	0-2	47.01	54.99	69
136 [23]	Jonesboro	3 - AAAAA	2-2	46.91	56.77	59
137 [24]	Houston County	1 - AAAAAA	2-2	46.77	37.43	213
138 [13]	Liberty County	2 - AAA	2-1	46.75	39.24	189
139 [25]	Winder-Barrow	8 - AAAAAA	1-2	46.73	53.71	76
140 [14]	Crisp County	1 - AAA	1-3	46.70	58.21	49
141 [26]	Lovejoy	4 - AAAAAA	2-1	46.70	40.67	177
142 [22]	Richmond Academy	3 - AAAA	4-0	46.60	29.56	282
143 [27]	Alexander	5 - AAAAAA	1-2	46.20	46.89	120
144 [24]	Ola	4 - AAAAA	1-3	46.16	56.91	58
145 [13]	Heard County	5 - AA	1-2	45.94	55.95	64
146 [40]	Campbell	2 - AAAAAAA	1-2	45.88	63.13	28
147 [5]	Darlington	6 - A	3-0	45.81	29.88	277
148 [25]	Woodland (Stockbridge)	4 - AAAAA	2-2	45.32	42.49	162
149 [23]	Upson-Lee	2 - AAAA	2-2	45.16	47.66	116
150 [24]	Carver (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	3-0	45.13	32.77	252
151 [15]	Westside (Macon)	4 - AAA	2-2	44.61	43.03	155
152 [26]	Carver (Atlanta)	6 - AAAAA	0-3	44.51	56.40	62
153 [25]	Pickens	6 - AAAA	3-0	44.23	23.07	323
154 [6]	Calvary Day	3 - A	2-0	43.82	2.49	402
155 [26]	Americus-Sumter	1 - AAAA	1-2	43.58	48.05	112
156 [28]	Johns Creek	7 - AAAAAA	2-1	43.54	29.81	279
157 [3]	Mount Zion (Carroll)	6 - A	3-0	43.47	20.82	338
158 [16]	Pierce County	2 - AAA	4-0	43.39	11.41	372
159 [27]	New Hampstead	2 - AAAAA	2-1	43.18	27.03	295
160 [29]	Gainesville	8 - AAAAAA	0-3	43.15	54.90	70
161 [28]	Maynard Jackson	6 - AAAAA	2-1	43.10	28.87	285
162 [30]	Creekside	5 - AAAAAA	1-2	43.07	57.09	55
163 [29]	Loganville	8 - AAAAA	2-1	43.02	40.33	181
164 [30]	Statesboro	2 - AAAAA	2-1	42.94	43.36	152
165 [4]	Commerce	8 - A	3-0	42.88	26.89	296
166 [14]	Douglass	6 - AA	3-0	42.51	25.08	310
167 [31]	Eagle's Landing	4 - AAAAA	1-3	42.39	48.91	103
168 [17]	Jenkins	3 - AAA	2-1	42.26	32.02	260
169 [18]	Pike County	4 - AAA	3-0	42.14	0.64	406
170 [31]	Sprayberry	6 - AAAAAA	1-2	42.12	55.17	68
171 [32]	Riverwood	6 - AAAAA	2-1	42.05	34.58	239
172 [15]	Swainsboro	2 - AA	2-1	41.78	36.94	219
173 [41]	Peachtree Ridge	6 - AAAAAAA	0-3	41.53	58.24	48
174 [16]	Jefferson County	4 - AA	1-2	41.24	37.81	209
175 [7]	George Walton Academy	8 - A	3-0	41.22	29.99	276
176 [32]	Cambridge	7 - AAAAAA	1-2	41.14	53.10	86
177 [8]	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	5 - A	3-0	40.82	30.64	268
178 [33]	Villa Rica	7 - AAAAA	1-2	40.71	47.74	115
179 [27]	Stephens County	8 - AAAA	2-2	40.57	41.59	169
180 [28]	Northwest Whitfield	6 - AAAA	2-1	40.15	2.24	404
181 [29]	Columbus	1 - AAAA	2-1	40.11	39.07	193
182 [34]	Woodland (Cartersville)	7 - AAAAA	3-0	40.00	26.30	301
183 [9]	Aquinas	7 - A	3-0	39.97	21.83	327
184 [17]	Early County	1 - AA	3-1	39.63	35.85	227
185 [33]	Habersham Central	8 - AAAAAA	3-1	39.21	32.70	253
186 [35]	Cedar Shoals	8 - AAAAA	2-1	39.20	33.58	245
187 [36]	Riverdale	3 - AAAAA	3-1	39.17	34.73	235
188 [30]	Northside (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	2-1	39.03	33.75	242
189 [19]	Appling County	2 - AAA	1-2	38.99	46.44	123
190 [37]	Paulding County	7 - AAAAA	0-3	38.97	53.20	85
191 [34]	Pope	7 - AAAAAA	0-3	38.84	61.41	34
192 [31]	Baldwin	3 - AAAA	0-4	38.77	61.92	32
193 [35]	Northview	7 - AAAAAA	2-1	38.59	34.34	240
194 [18]	Elbert County	8 - AA	2-1	38.50	30.33	271
195 [36]	Evans	3 - AAAAAA	0-4	38.43	48.39	107
196 [10]	Fellowship Christian	6 - A	3-0	38.32	20.40	342
197 [32]	Hardaway	1 - AAAA	2-1	38.18	26.41	300
198 [37]	Alcovy	3 - AAAAAA	2-2	37.96	48.02	113
199 [38]	Whitewater	3 - AAAAA	0-3	37.96	55.96	63
200 [38]	Heritage (Conyers)	3 - AAAAAA	1-2	37.90	42.41	164
201 [5]	Marion County	4 - A	3-0	37.40	11.82	370
202 [11]	Savannah Christian	3 - A	2-1	37.38	38.97	196
203 [19]	Southwest	3 - AA	2-1	37.37	35.31	230
204 [20]	North Murray	6 - AAA	2-1	37.31	33.73	243
205 [21]	Jackson	4 - AAA	1-2	37.21	48.19	111
206 [22]	Southeast Bulloch	3 - AAA	3-0	37.19	24.94	313
207 [39]	Mundy's Mill	4 - AAAAAA	3-1	37.12	31.94	261
208 [6]	Dooly County	4 - A	1-2	37.03	46.70	121
209 [23]	Cook	1 - AAA	2-2	36.98	38.40	201
210 [33]	North Oconee	8 - AAAA	3-1	36.98	29.79	280
211 [7]	Manchester	4 - A	2-1	36.83	24.64	316
212 [20]	Bleckley County	3 - AA	2-1	36.57	31.26	267
213 [21]	Chattooga	7 - AA	2-1	36.43	30.18	274
214 [42]	Shiloh	8 - AAAAAAA	1-2	36.42	38.10	203
215 [22]	Screven County	4 - AA	1-2	36.29	36.85	220
216 [12]	Savannah Country Day	3 - A	3-0	36.20	13.66	364
217 [23]	Northeast	3 - AA	1-2	36.05	43.01	156
218 [40]	New Manchester	5 - AAAAAA	1-2	35.96	40.79	176
219 [41]	Grovetown	3 - AAAAAA	1-3	35.87	48.52	106
220 [34]	Salem	4 - AAAA	1-2	35.81	46.35	125
221 [35]	LaGrange	5 - AAAA	1-2	35.70	45.68	130
222 [39]	Harris County	1 - AAAAA	0-4	35.67	49.46	99
223 [36]	Denmark	7 - AAAA	3-0	35.61	21.17	333
224 [24]	Pepperell	7 - AA	1-2	35.46	38.87	198
225 [13]	Wesleyan	5 - A	0-3	35.38	47.31	118
226 [42]	Drew	4 - AAAAAA	0-3	35.34	53.37	82
227 [43]	South Cobb	6 - AAAAAA	0-4	35.31	61.27	35
228 [8]	Lincoln County	7 - A	2-1	35.21	29.36	283
229 [44]	Bradwell Institute	2 - AAAAAA	0-3	35.13	55.84	66
230 [40]	Union Grove	4 - AAAAA	2-1	35.10	26.28	302
231 [9]	Pelham	1 - A	3-0	35.09	-7.15	414
232 [25]	Union County	8 - AA	3-0	34.90	12.69	367
233 [45]	River Ridge	6 - AAAAAA	0-4	34.84	66.85	17
234 [41]	South Effingham	2 - AAAAA	1-2	34.29	37.29	215
235 [10]	Emanuel County Institute	3 - A	0-3	34.15	44.43	138
236 [11]	Turner County	2 - A	2-1	34.14	26.52	298
237 [12]	Charlton County	2 - A	2-1	34.12	27.37	290
238 [37]	West Hall	7 - AAAA	1-3	33.93	43.09	154
239 [26]	Hephzibah	4 - AA	2-1	33.90	33.93	241
240 [27]	Berrien	1 - AA	3-1	33.66	27.28	291
241 [43]	Forsyth Central	5 - AAAAAAA	2-1	33.09	24.19	319
242 [38]	White County	7 - AAAA	1-2	32.81	33.04	250
243 [13]	Mitchell County	1 - A	2-1	32.70	24.48	318
244 [14]	Trion	6 - A	3-0	32.53	9.41	382
245 [44]	Rockdale County	8 - AAAAAAA	1-3	32.46	38.03	204
246 [24]	Adairsville	6 - AAA	2-1	32.34	23.04	324
247 [42]	Columbia	5 - AAAAA	1-3	32.33	50.79	94
248 [46]	South Paulding	5 - AAAAAA	0-3	32.27	53.29	83
249 [39]	Westover	1 - AAAA	1-2	32.26	34.69	237
250 [25]	Ringgold	6 - AAA	1-2	32.05	37.91	208
251 [15]	Macon County	4 - A	0-2	31.72	36.23	223
252 [28]	Metter	2 - AA	3-0	31.49	21.41	331
253 [47]	M.L. King	4 - AAAAAA	0-2	31.23	46.18	126
254 [29]	Washington	6 - AA	2-2	31.20	32.46	256
255 [45]	Discovery	6 - AAAAAAA	1-3	31.15	44.06	144
256 [46]	Duluth	6 - AAAAAAA	2-2	31.14	34.93	233
257 [30]	Jeff Davis	2 - AA	4-0	31.03	15.09	359
258 [14]	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	5 - A	2-1	30.87	27.12	293
259 [16]	Telfair County	2 - A	2-1	30.78	18.44	352
260 [40]	Central (Carrollton)	5 - AAAA	1-2	30.48	37.98	205
261 [15]	Stratford Academy	7 - A	1-2	30.43	33.27	247
262 [43]	Cass	7 - AAAAA	1-2	30.42	34.71	236
263 [48]	Tri-Cities	5 - AAAAAA	0-2	30.38	48.23	110
264 [44]	Lithonia	5 - AAAAA	3-0	30.31	8.62	384
265 [17]	Claxton	3 - A	3-0	30.20	21.47	330
266 [26]	Hart County	8 - AAA	1-3	30.15	37.49	212
267 [16]	Whitefield Academy	6 - A	2-1	30.10	20.88	337
268 [27]	Morgan County	8 - AAA	1-3	30.09	36.73	222
269 [45]	Walnut Grove	8 - AAAAA	1-2	30.01	42.43	163
270 [31]	Harlem	4 - AA	2-1	29.88	23.96	321
271 [49]	Lakeside (Evans)	3 - AAAAAA	2-1	29.75	29.84	278
272 [50]	Chattahoochee	7 - AAAAAA	0-3	29.51	43.22	153
273 [41]	Luella	4 - AAAA	1-2	29.11	44.79	136
274 [42]	Hampton	4 - AAAA	1-2	29.02	37.49	211
275 [28]	Sonoraville	6 - AAA	1-2	28.80	45.80	128
276 [51]	North Atlanta	7 - AAAAAA	2-1	28.51	25.78	306
277 [32]	B.E.S.T. Academy	6 - AA	1-2	28.33	42.69	159
278 [17]	Hebron Christian Academy	8 - A	1-2	28.22	41.64	168
279 [18]	Tattnall Square	7 - A	1-3	28.06	36.13	224
280 [52]	Morrow	4 - AAAAAA	1-3	28.04	49.13	101
281 [53]	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4 - AAAAAA	0-3	27.75	50.80	93
282 [46]	Decatur	6 - AAAAA	1-2	27.60	35.05	232
283 [29]	Central (Macon)	4 - AAA	0-3	27.49	44.91	135
284 [43]	Madison County	8 - AAAA	1-3	27.06	33.31	246
285 [33]	Spencer	5 - AA	0-4	26.90	38.39	202
286 [30]	East Hall	7 - AAA	1-3	26.74	39.23	190
287 [54]	Greenbrier	3 - AAAAAA	0-3	26.60	43.84	146
288 [47]	North Springs	6 - AAAAA	1-2	26.55	24.97	312
289 [55]	Dunwoody	7 - AAAAAA	1-2	26.47	39.16	191
290 [18]	Schley County	4 - A	2-1	26.09	21.62	328
291 [44]	Shaw	1 - AAAA	2-1	25.82	20.23	344
292 [48]	Miller Grove	5 - AAAAA	1-2	25.67	28.45	287
293 [34]	South Atlanta	6 - AA	2-1	25.59	10.48	376
294 [49]	McIntosh	3 - AAAAA	1-3	25.57	31.81	263
295 [31]	Windsor Forest	3 - AAA	2-1	25.45	21.11	334
296 [35]	Toombs County	2 - AA	2-2	25.19	20.50	341
297 [32]	Monroe	1 - AAA	2-2	25.18	19.52	348
298 [47]	Lakeside (Atlanta)	7 - AAAAAAA	1-2	25.04	32.86	251
299 [33]	Tattnall County	2 - AAA	0-3	24.96	39.28	188
300 [19]	Mount de Sales	7 - A	3-0	24.73	14.10	363
301 [50]	Fayette County	3 - AAAAA	0-3	24.63	36.06	226
302 [56]	Apalachee	8 - AAAAAA	1-3	24.52	35.45	228
303 [36]	Coosa	7 - AA	0-3	24.25	40.32	182
304 [37]	Lamar County	5 - AA	2-1	24.19	-3.65	412
305 [20]	Holy Innocents	5 - A	2-1	24.08	17.93	353
306 [38]	Laney	4 - AA	2-1	24.07	20.57	340
307 [19]	McIntosh County Academy	3 - A	0-2	23.94	49.65	98
308 [45]	Heritage (Ringgold)	6 - AAAA	1-3	23.85	30.56	270
309 [34]	Jackson County	8 - AAA	2-2	23.56	22.24	326
310 [35]	Franklin County	8 - AAA	1-2	23.50	31.80	264
311 [20]	Taylor County	4 - A	1-2	23.46	24.87	314
312 [46]	North Clayton	4 - AAAA	0-3	22.99	53.61	78
313 [21]	Brookstone	4 - A	1-1	22.97	4.48	398
314 [21]	Washington-Wilkes	7 - A	0-3	22.77	32.49	255
315 [22]	Pinecrest Academy	6 - A	1-2	22.71	26.26	303
316 [36]	Worth County	1 - AAA	0-4	21.32	43.63	149
317 [22]	Wilcox County	2 - A	2-1	21.20	17.59	354
318 [51]	Grady	6 - AAAAA	0-3	21.01	36.83	221
319 [23]	Johnson County	3 - A	2-0	20.77	9.55	380
320 [24]	Atkinson County	2 - A	2-1	20.74	18.81	350
321 [47]	Southeast Whitfield	6 - AAAA	2-1	20.49	5.96	394
322 [25]	Greene County	7 - A	1-1	20.38	21.39	332
323 [39]	McNair	6 - AA	2-1	19.84	24.58	317
324 [40]	Butler	4 - AA	2-1	19.59	21.08	336
325 [37]	Savannah	3 - AAA	0-3	19.50	38.73	200
326 [41]	Bacon County	2 - AA	0-4	19.46	39.94	185
327 [48]	Chestatee	7 - AAAA	0-3	19.31	42.09	165
328 [42]	Therrell	6 - AA	1-2	19.01	41.33	171
329 [23]	Mount Pisgah Christian	6 - A	1-3	18.73	24.00	320
330 [26]	Hancock Central	7 - A	2-1	18.68	14.38	362
331 [24]	North Cobb Christian	6 - A	3-0	18.44	10.87	374
332 [27]	Jenkins County	3 - A	1-2	18.34	20.34	343
333 [25]	Christian Heritage	6 - A	3-0	18.14	4.02	399
334 [49]	Henry County	4 - AAAA	0-3	17.87	36.11	225
335 [26]	Athens Christian	8 - A	2-2	17.64	19.51	349
336 [52]	Lithia Springs	6 - AAAAA	2-1	17.62	-2.32	411
337 [50]	Dougherty	1 - AAAA	0-3	17.17	48.01	114
338 [27]	First Presbyterian	7 - A	0-3	16.68	31.50	266
339 [43]	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	6 - AA	1-3	16.26	27.10	294
340 [38]	Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe	6 - AAA	2-1	15.95	9.44	381
341 [39]	Redan	5 - AAA	0-4	15.82	30.19	273
342 [28]	Miller County	1 - A	1-1	15.80	15.04	360
343 [40]	Brantley County	2 - AAA	0-3	15.76	30.02	275
344 [51]	Cross Creek	3 - AAAA	2-2	15.70	15.54	357
345 [28]	Our Lady of Mercy	5 - A	0-3	15.67	37.92	206
346 [44]	Bryan County	2 - AA	1-2	15.35	25.08	311
347 [45]	Temple	5 - AA	1-2	15.27	19.53	347
348 [41]	Islands	3 - AAA	0-3	14.46	38.79	199
349 [52]	LaFayette	6 - AAAA	3-1	14.12	9.83	378
350 [29]	Bowdon	6 - A	0-3	13.91	34.74	234
351 [42]	Haralson County	6 - AAA	2-0	13.45	-2.26	410
352 [43]	Beach	3 - AAA	0-3	13.09	38.99	195
353 [46]	Banks County	8 - AA	1-2	12.84	14.80	361
354 [57]	Forest Park	4 - AAAAAA	0-3	12.74	39.10	192
355 [47]	Putnam County	8 - AA	1-2	12.69	23.57	322
356 [29]	Strong Rock Christian	5 - A	1-2	12.52	26.56	297
357 [30]	Chattahoochee County	1 - A	1-2	12.49	25.66	307
358 [48]	East Laurens	3 - AA	1-3	11.79	25.87	305
359 [49]	Monticello	8 - AA	1-2	11.55	18.54	351
360 [53]	Druid Hills	4 - AAAA	2-1	11.39	5.84	395
361 [50]	Model	7 - AA	0-3	10.98	27.43	289
362 [31]	Hawkinsville	4 - A	1-2	10.53	21.09	335
363 [44]	Lumpkin County	7 - AAA	2-2	10.14	8.24	386
364 [30]	St. Francis	6 - A	1-2	10.00	11.28	373
365 [32]	Wilkinson County	7 - A	0-3	9.99	39.58	187
366 [31]	Walker	6 - A	0-3	9.75	24.65	315
367 [33]	Montgomery County	3 - A	1-2	9.60	12.76	366
368 [34]	Seminole County	1 - A	2-1	9.52	2.44	403
369 [45]	Towers	5 - AAA	0-4	9.43	26.44	299
370 [46]	Kendrick	4 - AAA	1-3	8.70	21.48	329
371 [53]	Johnson (Gainesville)	8 - AAAAA	3-1	7.96	-0.18	407
372 [54]	Chamblee	5 - AAAAA	0-3	7.83	41.27	172
373 [51]	Glenn Hills	4 - AA	0-3	7.75	25.21	309
374 [35]	Towns County	8 - A	2-1	7.52	33.61	244
375 [32]	Landmark Christian	5 - A	1-2	7.30	11.78	371
376 [36]	Warren County	7 - A	2-1	7.30	1.35	405
377 [47]	Long County	2 - AAA	0-3	6.18	37.07	216
378 [48]	Fannin County	7 - AAA	1-2	6.16	12.02	369
379 [52]	Jordan	5 - AA	0-3	5.78	20.09	345
380 [53]	Social Circle	8 - AA	2-0	5.30	-29.47	421
381 [49]	Rutland	4 - AAA	0-3	4.50	27.26	292
382 [37]	Gordon Lee	6 - A	1-2	4.24	10.57	375
383 [58]	Osborne	6 - AAAAAA	0-4	4.09	40.34	180
384 [38]	Portal	3 - A	1-2	2.57	7.94	388
385 [54]	Dade County	7 - AA	0-3	2.55	19.68	346
386 [55]	Armuchee	7 - AA	1-2	2.33	15.13	358
387 [33]	Riverside Military Academy	8 - A	1-2	1.68	5.69	396
388 [56]	Westside (Augusta)	4 - AA	0-2	1.17	35.33	229
389 [50]	Murray County	6 - AAA	0-3	1.02	12.60	368
390 [39]	Wheeler County	3 - A	1-2	0.92	7.99	387
391 [40]	Lanier County	2 - A	0-3	-2.16	8.30	385
392 [34]	Georgia Military College	7 - A	3-0	-2.31	-32.82	422
393 [57]	Josey	4 - AA	0-2	-2.45	17.19	356
394 [41]	Greenville	4 - A	0-2	-2.46	33.17	248
395 [42]	Calhoun County	1 - A	1-2	-2.58	7.23	389
396 [43]	Terrell County	1 - A	0-3	-2.63	17.25	355
397 [35]	Providence Christian	8 - A	2-1	-2.84	-6.79	413
398 [36]	Lakeview Academy	8 - A	0-3	-3.36	9.96	377
399 [44]	Treutlen	3 - A	2-1	-3.40	-18.88	418
400 [58]	Gordon Central	7 - AA	1-2	-4.24	7.21	390
401 [51]	Stone Mountain	5 - AAA	0-4	-5.35	32.55	254
402 [48]	Berkmar	7 - AAAAAAA	1-2	-6.24	13.60	365
403 [52]	Johnson (Savannah)	3 - AAA	1-2	-6.87	30.30	272
404 [53]	East Jackson	8 - AAA	1-2	-6.98	3.21	400
405 [54]	Cherokee Bluff	7 - AAA	0-4	-7.11	32.13	258
406 [37]	King's Ridge Christian	6 - A	0-2	-8.33	-0.58	408
407 [45]	Crawford County	4 - A	2-1	-8.65	-20.12	419
408 [38]	Pacelli	4 - A	1-2	-8.91	9.61	379
409 [55]	Coahulla Creek	6 - AAA	0-3	-12.05	31.56	265
410 [56]	Groves	3 - AAA	0-3	-14.64	48.84	104
411 [46]	Baconton Charter	1 - A	1-2	-15.64	6.04	393
412 [47]	Central (Talbotton)	4 - A	0-3	-16.35	22.36	325
413 [54]	Gilmer	6 - AAAA	0-4	-16.51	2.81	401
414 [48]	Twiggs County	7 - A	0-3	-17.89	8.63	383
415 [59]	Oglethorpe County	8 - AA	0-3	-18.59	-0.88	409
416 [55]	Clarkston	5 - AAAAA†	0-4	-18.65	20.71	339
417 [49]	Stewart County	1 - A	2-1	-19.24	-20.44	420
418 [50]	Randolph-Clay	1 - A	0-3	-22.63	27.79	288
419 [1]	Glascock County	7 - A†	0-4	-32.10	-7.16	415
420 [2]	Pataula Charter	1 - A†	1-2	-49.14	-16.94	417
421 [3]	ACE Charter	7 - A†	1-3	-50.34	4.70	397
422 [56]	Cross Keys	5 - AAAAA†	0-4	-53.59	6.74	392

† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank	Region	Comp Rating	Avg Rating
1	1 - AAAAAAA	90.08	79.04
2	8 - AAAAAAA	84.87	61.15
3	3 - AAAAAAA	81.63	69.62
4	6 - AAAAAAA	81.35	56.64
5	1 - AAAAAA	79.70	67.91
6	7 - AAAAAAA	78.19	56.84
7	7 - AAAAA	76.62	49.53
8	4 - AAAAAAA	76.51	62.05
9	7 - AAAA	76.41	46.24
10	5 - AAAA	75.39	54.38
11	5 - AAAAAAA	74.07	57.11
12	8 - AAAAA	72.15	42.50
13	4 - AAAAA	71.78	53.11
14	6 - AAAAAA	70.03	50.71
15	1 - AAAAA	67.85	53.78
16	2 - AAAAAA	66.98	53.95
17	5 - AAA	66.05	42.09
18	2 - AAAAAAA	65.95	54.82
19	5 - AAAAAA	63.65	46.12
20	2 - AAAA	63.46	50.98
21	2 - AAAAA	63.20	49.41
22	1 - AA	61.08	49.24
23	4 - AAAAAA	60.84	37.12
24	8 - AAAA	59.36	44.30
25	3 - AAAA	58.40	45.17
26	4 - AAA	57.48	33.54
27	6 - AA	57.42	29.07
28	7 - AAAAAA	56.73	39.46
29	3 - AAAAA	56.47	40.50
30	8 - AAAAAA	56.37	44.01
31	3 - AAA	56.08	21.27
32	6 - AAA	55.38	23.81
33	3 - AA	55.27	40.70
34	2 - A	55.22	31.85
35	7 - AAA	55.21	27.65
36	5 - AA	55.20	32.71
37	4 - AAAA	54.74	31.35
38	8 - AAA	53.80	30.91
39	1 - AAAA	52.77	37.47
40	5 - A	51.71	27.40
41	8 - A	51.20	23.52
	8-Div A - A	52.13	35.59
	8-Div B - A	34.14	13.62
42	6 - AAAAA	50.15	34.16
43	5 - AAAAA	49.84	33.80
44	6 - AAAA	48.68	27.73
45	6 - A	47.86	22.88
	6-Div A - A	43.11	24.73
	6-Div B - A	41.46	21.22
46	8 - AA	46.16	18.39
47	2 - AA	45.89	30.27
48	7 - AA	45.74	19.14
49	2 - AAA	45.60	30.00
50	3 - AAAAAA	44.73	34.48
51	3 - A	43.10	21.75
	3-Div A - A	43.33	30.39
	3-Div B - A	28.50	13.15
52	1 - AAA	42.88	32.33
53	4 - A	40.56	17.71
	4-Div B - A	35.71	21.68
	4-Div A - A	34.76	11.29
54	4 - AA	40.55	22.06
55	7 - A	39.06	19.23
	7-Div B - A	36.21	20.50
	7-Div A - A	30.43	17.76
56	1 - A	29.59	3.73

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct	Likelihood
08/24	Shiloh	Discovery	0 - 31	6.58	65.9%	0.353
08/24	Eagle's Landing Christian	Pace Academy	16 - 17	7.31	67.5%	0.400
08/31	Southeast Whitfield	Coahulla Creek	9 - 6	33.85	96.7%	0.403
08/17	Archer	Milton	19 - 21	4.42	60.9%	0.441
09/07	Emanuel County Institute	Metter	13 - 14	3.96	59.8%	0.450
08/31	Liberty County	Statesboro	6 - 23	2.52	56.3%	0.451
08/24	Greater Atlanta Christian	Westminster (Atlanta)	21 - 22	3.69	59.1%	0.454
08/24	East Paulding	Upson-Lee	16 - 21	3.15	57.8%	0.454
09/07	Manchester	Northeast	6 - 19	2.08	55.2%	0.463
08/17	Chattooga	Adairsville	20 - 21	2.78	56.9%	0.466
08/18	Rabun County	Bremen	10 - 13	2.20	55.5%	0.471
08/24	Temple	Putnam County	7 - 28	1.28	53.2%	0.474
08/24	Newton	Eastside	20 - 27	1.68	54.2%	0.475
08/17	North Forsyth	Cherokee	16 - 18	1.97	54.9%	0.476
08/17	Jefferson	Oconee County	13 - 20	1.60	54.0%	0.476

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating	Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct
93.94	09/21	Colquitt County	Grayson	-	2.17	55.4%
85.26	10/12	Grayson	Archer	-	10.34	73.8%
84.65	09/21	Buford	Archer	-	1.55	53.9%
84.43	09/14	North Gwinnett	Walton	-	7.70	68.4%
84.36	08/18	Colquitt County	McEachern	41 - 7	13.99	80.2%
80.59	08/17	Archer	Milton	19 - 21	4.42	60.9%
80.49	10/26	Colquitt County	Lowndes	-	18.12	86.0%
80.06	08/31	Parkview	Lowndes	39 - 27	4.47	61.0%
79.98	09/21	Parkview	Milton	-	4.57	61.2%
78.32	08/18	Walton	Mill Creek	48 - 27	4.91	62.0%
78.28	10/05	North Gwinnett	Mill Creek	-	15.21	82.1%
78.27	09/07	Archer	Mill Creek	42 - 0	8.12	69.3%
78.02	10/19	Parkview	Brookwood	-	5.46	63.3%
77.86	08/18	North Gwinnett	Brookwood	37 - 2	15.00	81.8%
77.67	09/14	Colquitt County	Warner Robins	-	19.48	87.5%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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