Sports

Maxwell Week Seven Summary: Colquitt surges; Odds of each team going undefeated

By Todd Holcomb
Oct 7, 2014

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Week Seven:

- Colquitt County surged to over 100.00 in the ratings after the Packers disposed of Region 1-AAAAAA rival Lowndes, 45-27. A rating of 100.00 signifies the ability to win 91.5% of all games against the state's highest classification in an infinite round robin competition. Colquitt's rating is 101.45, which would be good for a 95.14% winning percentage against this year's group of Class AAAAAA teams. Valdosta, Camden County, Lee County, and Tift County, the Packer's remaining regular season foes, would account for over one in every 10 of Colquitt's losses in the hypothetical tournament.

- Jones County's 45-37 victory over Northside of Warner Robins in week 5 looks more like an upset in light of their 35-16 loss to Lakeside (Evans) last Friday, especially when considering Northside previously downed that same Lakeside team 38-7. Jones County's decision now rates as the third least likely result of the season, behind two that were added this weekend.

- The ripple effect of Jones County's loss dropped Northside four slots in the Class AAAAA rankings. Meanwhile Creekside's 13-7 victory over Mays elevated them into first place over previous number one Ware County.

- There are 37 undefeated teams left. Below are the odds of each team completing the regular season undefeated.

Class AAAAAA

Team Percent Odds
Colquitt County 71.1% 0.41
Grayson 53.6% 0.87
Dacula 15.8% 5.32
Northview 8.1% 11.36
Valdosta 5.6% 17.01
Lee County 0.0% 7,691.31

Class AAAAA

Team Percent Odds
Allatoona 73.8% 0.35
Ware County 65.6% 0.52
Kell 49.2% 1.03
Lanier 7.2% 12.87

Class AAAA

Team Percent Odds
Buford 95.3% 0.05
Griffin 92.8% 0.08
Sandy Creek 75.3% 0.33
Marist 67.8% 0.47
Southeast Whitfield 0.0% 199,999.00

Class AAA

Team Percent Odds
Calhoun 99.1% 0.01
Washington County 99.1% 0.01
Jefferson 64.8% 0.54
Central (Carrollton) 63.7% 0.57
Westside (Macon) 53.5% 0.87
Blessed Trinity 49.1% 1.04
Peach County 38.2% 1.62
Hart County 26.0% 2.84
Westminster (Atlanta) 18.7% 4.35
Dodge County 18.3% 4.47
Oconee County 0.0% 3,094.98

Class AA

Team Percent Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 58.6% 0.71
Screven County 51.0% 0.96
Vidalia 38.5% 1.60
Union County 18.5% 4.40

Class A

Team Percent Odds
Aquinas 66.3% 0.51
Mount Paran Christian 53.0% 0.89
Hawkinsville 31.6% 2.16
Marion County 25.4% 2.94
Savannah Christian 24.7% 3.05
Calvary Day 21.0% 3.76
Tattnall Square 11.2% 7.93

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 15.04%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1021 of 1116 total games including 4 ties (91.67%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.94 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

Home Advantage: 0.48

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 6-0 101.45 1 Creekside 5-1 79.79
2 Grayson 6-0 90.62 2 Ware County 5-0 79.47
3 Lowndes 5-1 85.44 3 Allatoona 6-0 78.98
4 Norcross 5-1 85.31 4 Gainesville 4-1 76.95
5 McEachern 3-2 85.17 5 Coffee 5-1 75.11
6 North Gwinnett 4-2 84.95 6 Northside (Warner Robins) 5-1 72.97
7 Valdosta 6-0 84.43 7 Mays 4-2 72.39
8 Dacula 6-0 83.97 8 Kell 6-0 71.08
9 Milton 4-1 82.41 9 Carver (Columbus) 4-1 68.59
10 Tucker 4-2 82.17 10 Stephenson 3-2 68.55
11 Hughes 4-1 81.69 11 Dalton 5-1 67.80
12 Camden County 5-1 81.39 12 South Paulding 4-1 67.70
13 Peachtree Ridge 5-1 81.37 13 East Paulding 2-3 63.76
14 Hillgrove 4-2 78.98 14 Glynn Academy 4-2 63.20
15 Archer 2-3 78.84 15 Harris County 3-2 62.98
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 5-0 95.05 1 Washington County 6-0 82.18
2 Sandy Creek 5-0 88.19 2 Calhoun 6-0 79.05
3 Griffin 5-0 80.40 3 Blessed Trinity 5-0 72.44
4 Marist 6-0 77.58 4 Jefferson 6-0 71.53
5 Cartersville 4-1 71.25 5 Westside (Macon) 6-0 68.48
6 Thomas County Central 4-1 70.40 6 Westminster (Atlanta) 5-0 66.02
7 Woodward Academy 4-1 66.86 7 Peach County 6-0 65.71
8 Cairo 4-1 65.87 8 Hart County 5-0 63.47
9 St. Pius X 3-2 63.12 9 Central (Carrollton) 5-0 59.96
10 Mary Persons 4-1 62.47 10 Cedar Grove 4-1 58.95
11 Burke County 3-3 61.14 11 Adairsville 4-1 57.37
12 Carrollton 2-3 60.36 12 Elbert County 3-3 54.76
13 Whitewater 4-1 60.28 13 Dodge County 6-0 50.76
14 North Oconee 3-2 60.06 14 Appling County 4-1 50.75
15 Troup 3-2 59.61 15 Ringgold 3-2 50.58
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 6-0 70.90 1 Hawkinsville 6-0 54.06
2 Lovett 4-2 65.77 2 Irwin County 4-1-1 52.41
3 Benedictine 4-1 65.09 3 Aquinas 6-0 51.31
4 Brooks County 4-2 63.34 4 Marion County 5-0 50.98
5 Vidalia 6-0 62.88 5 Mount Paran Christian 5-0 48.75
6 Fitzgerald 5-1 58.00 6 Landmark Christian 5-1 46.36
7 Thomasville 3-3 56.89 7 Savannah Christian 5-0 45.70
8 Lamar County 3-1-1 56.62 8 Dooly County 4-1 45.30
9 Screven County 6-0 48.10 9 Charlton County 5-1 45.08
10 Bowdon 3-2 46.08 10 Calvary Day 5-0 44.52
11 Jefferson County 3-3 45.72 11 Mount Pisgah Christian 4-1 43.57
12 B.E.S.T. Academy 3-3 45.31 12 Tattnall Square 5-0 41.83
13 Darlington 5-1 45.09 13 Pacelli 4-2 41.83
14 Macon County 3-2 44.62 14 Clinch County 3-3 41.77
15 Early County 2-3-1 43.81 15 Emanuel County Institute 4-1 40.99

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 6-0 101.45 57.07 65 [45]
2 [1] Buford 8-AAAA 5-0 95.05 50.00 120 [23]
3 [2] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 6-0 90.62 70.73 10 [10]
4 [2] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 5-0 88.19 51.07 115 [21]
5 [3] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 5-1 85.44 64.74 31 [28]
6 [4] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 5-1 85.31 69.46 15 [15]
7 [5] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 3-2 85.17 80.83 1 [1]
8 [6] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 4-2 84.95 79.01 3 [3]
9 [7] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 6-0 84.43 57.58 60 [44]
10 [8] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 6-0 83.97 65.74 27 [25]
11 [9] Milton 5-AAAAAA 4-1 82.41 71.45 9 [9]
12 [1] Washington County 3-AAA 6-0 82.18 47.38 141 [6]
13 [10] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 4-2 82.17 44.10 184 [60]
14 [11] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 4-1 81.69 69.07 16 [16]
15 [12] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 5-1 81.39 60.14 45 [37]
16 [13] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 5-1 81.37 61.13 43 [36]
17 [3] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 5-0 80.40 43.74 188 [40]
18 [1] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 5-1 79.79 66.70 24 [2]
19 [2] Ware County 3-AAAAA 5-0 79.47 55.31 77 [17]
20 [2] Calhoun 6-AAA 6-0 79.05 48.22 135 [5]
22 [14] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 4-2 78.98 69.82 13 [13]
21 [3] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 6-0 78.98 57.16 64 [12]
23 [15] Archer 8-AAAAAA 2-3 78.84 77.29 4 [4]
24 [4] Marist 6-AAAA 6-0 77.58 38.25 240 [49]
25 [4] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 4-1 76.95 52.40 102 [27]
26 [16] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 4-2 76.81 65.98 26 [24]
27 [17] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 3-3 75.89 67.89 21 [21]
28 [5] Coffee 3-AAAAA 5-1 75.11 53.87 87 [20]
29 [18] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 4-2 74.85 69.05 17 [17]
30 [19] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 4-2 74.49 66.91 23 [22]
31 [20] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 4-1 73.38 51.38 113 [53]
32 [6] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 5-1 72.97 52.12 104 [28]
33 [3] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 5-0 72.44 44.61 178 [11]
34 [7] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-2 72.39 63.25 36 [5]
35 [21] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 4-2 71.62 64.81 30 [27]
36 [4] Jefferson 8-AAA 6-0 71.53 39.71 222 [23]
37 [5] Cartersville 7-AAAA 4-1 71.25 53.37 94 [16]
38 [8] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 6-0 71.08 49.77 124 [39]
39 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 6-0 70.90 42.13 203 [13]
40 [6] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 4-1 70.40 49.37 132 [26]
41 [22] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 3-2 70.18 67.97 20 [20]
42 [23] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 5-1 70.10 56.56 66 [46]
43 [24] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 2-3 69.06 73.59 6 [6]
44 [25] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 3-2 68.99 69.75 14 [14]
45 [9] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 4-1 68.59 51.41 112 [34]
46 [10] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 68.55 51.91 106 [29]
47 [5] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 6-0 68.48 39.34 228 [25]
48 [26] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 5-1 67.97 56.49 68 [47]
49 [11] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 5-1 67.80 47.05 145 [48]
50 [12] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 4-1 67.70 59.91 46 [7]
51 [27] Walton 5-AAAAAA 4-2 67.57 62.02 39 [32]
52 [28] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 67.44 37.36 250 [63]
53 [7] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 4-1 66.86 45.73 160 [35]
54 [6] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 5-0 66.02 44.88 174 [9]
55 [29] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-5 65.91 74.58 5 [5]
56 [8] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 4-1 65.87 52.93 95 [17]
57 [2] Lovett 6-AA 4-2 65.77 52.32 103 [2]
58 [7] Peach County 2-AAA 6-0 65.71 33.67 284 [40]
59 [30] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 2-4 65.56 70.04 12 [12]
60 [3] Benedictine 2-AA 4-1 65.09 42.58 200 [10]
61 [31] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-1 64.88 45.16 171 [58]
62 [32] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 4-1 64.26 54.35 84 [49]
63 [33] Northview 6-AAAAAA 5-0 63.90 41.97 207 [61]
64 [34] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 3-1 63.87 50.24 119 [54]
65 [13] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 2-3 63.76 63.87 34 [4]
66 [8] Hart County 8-AAA 5-0 63.47 39.51 225 [24]
67 [4] Brooks County 1-AA 4-2 63.34 42.43 202 [12]
68 [14] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 4-2 63.20 57.71 59 [9]
69 [9] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 3-2 63.12 57.74 58 [6]
70 [15] Harris County 1-AAAAA 3-2 62.98 53.80 89 [21]
71 [5] Vidalia 2-AA 6-0 62.88 28.76 323 [37]
72 [35] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 2-4 62.63 68.61 18 [18]
73 [10] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 4-1 62.47 51.09 114 [20]
74 [16] Lanier 8-AAAAA 5-0 61.85 47.48 140 [45]
75 [36] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 3-2 61.54 59.22 48 [39]
76 [37] Newton 2-AAAAAA 2-2 61.24 61.20 42 [35]
77 [17] Alexander 5-AAAAA 4-1 61.21 50.46 118 [36]
78 [38] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 3-3 61.15 61.90 40 [33]
79 [11] Burke County 3-AAAA 3-3 61.14 57.76 57 [5]
80 [18] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 4-2 61.00 49.93 123 [38]
81 [12] Carrollton 5-AAAA 2-3 60.36 55.80 74 [8]
82 [19] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 3-2 60.30 58.61 50 [8]
83 [13] Whitewater 5-AAAA 4-1 60.28 40.91 214 [44]
84 [14] North Oconee 8-AAAA 3-2 60.06 52.52 99 [19]
85 [20] Jones County 2-AAAAA 5-1 60.06 38.63 237 [78]
86 [9] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 5-0 59.96 40.88 215 [19]
87 [39] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 2-4 59.64 63.97 33 [30]
88 [15] Troup 5-AAAA 3-2 59.61 54.56 82 [12]
89 [21] Houston County 2-AAAAA 4-1 59.45 44.72 177 [65]
90 [22] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-2 59.15 44.03 186 [67]
91 [10] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 4-1 58.95 45.88 157 [7]
92 [23] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 5-1 58.82 49.45 130 [42]
93 [40] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 1-4 58.77 71.92 8 [8]
94 [24] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 3-3 58.64 56.45 69 [14]
95 [41] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 3-3 58.58 58.54 52 [42]
96 [42] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 4-1 58.35 44.38 183 [59]
97 [43] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-5 58.34 73.42 7 [7]
98 [6] Fitzgerald 1-AA 5-1 58.00 45.84 158 [7]
99 [25] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-2 57.83 49.71 126 [41]
100 [44] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 2-3 57.44 61.43 41 [34]
101 [11] Adairsville 6-AAA 4-1 57.37 45.33 167 [8]
102 [16] Columbia 6-AAAA 4-2 57.29 44.54 180 [37]
103 [26] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 57.12 57.37 63 [11]
104 [17] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 4-2 57.11 49.98 121 [24]
105 [18] West Laurens 2-AAAA 4-2 57.05 53.47 93 [15]
106 [7] Thomasville 1-AA 3-3 56.89 57.47 62 [1]
107 [27] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-1 56.81 39.47 226 [77]
108 [19] Gilmer 7-AAAA 4-1 56.72 39.40 227 [45]
109 [8] Lamar County 4-AA 3-1-1 56.62 39.00 232 [18]
110 [45] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 1-4 56.33 65.37 29 [26]
111 [28] Hiram 5-AAAAA 4-1 56.11 42.48 201 [72]
112 [46] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-3 56.06 59.24 47 [38]
113 [29] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 4-2 55.52 43.28 190 [68]
114 [30] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 54.92 35.75 260 [83]
115 [12] Elbert County 8-AAA 3-3 54.76 56.30 70 [1]
116 [31] Salem 8-AAAAA 4-2 54.49 51.48 111 [33]
117 [47] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 2-3 54.32 53.85 88 [51]
118 [1] Hawkinsville 4-A 6-0 54.06 31.50 303 [14]
119 [48] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 3-2 53.81 53.99 86 [50]
120 [49] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-5 53.65 70.30 11 [11]
121 [50] Pope 5-AAAAAA 1-4 53.36 66.01 25 [23]
122 [32] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 4-2 53.31 52.64 98 [25]
123 [33] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 3-2 53.19 52.71 97 [24]
124 [34] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-2 53.14 45.89 156 [52]
125 [51] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 3-3 53.00 58.59 51 [41]
126 [20] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-3 52.62 53.51 92 [14]
127 [35] Evans 2-AAAAA 4-2 52.49 45.66 162 [55]
128 [2] Irwin County 2-A 4-1-1 52.41 42.79 194 [2]
129 [52] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 3-2 52.05 52.01 105 [52]
130 [21] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 3-2 52.00 47.57 139 [28]
131 [22] Grady 6-AAAA 3-2 51.67 45.94 154 [34]
132 [36] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 3-3 51.35 54.41 83 [19]
133 [3] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 6-0 51.31 29.43 318 [24]
134 [37] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-2 51.18 37.50 249 [80]
135 [23] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 5-1 51.14 39.19 230 [47]
136 [4] Marion County 4-A 5-0 50.98 31.35 304 [15]
137 [38] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 2-3 50.80 50.47 117 [35]
138 [13] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 6-0 50.76 27.81 330 [51]
139 [14] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 4-1 50.75 34.35 274 [34]
140 [15] Ringgold 6-AAA 3-2 50.58 41.76 210 [17]
141 [39] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 50.33 46.58 150 [50]
142 [40] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-4 50.25 65.69 28 [3]
143 [16] Callaway 5-AAA 2-3 49.77 49.46 129 [4]
144 [41] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-2 49.66 44.74 176 [64]
145 [24] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 4-1 49.66 38.83 234 [48]
146 [42] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-3 49.55 49.95 122 [37]
147 [25] Pickens 7-AAAA 4-1 49.54 37.74 248 [51]
148 [26] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 3-3 49.46 45.65 163 [36]
149 [27] Wayne County 3-AAAA 2-5 49.40 56.10 71 [7]
150 [28] Stephens County 8-AAAA 4-1 49.10 36.09 258 [53]
151 [17] West Hall 7-AAA 4-1 48.88 33.08 293 [43]
152 [5] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 5-0 48.75 24.02 354 [41]
153 [43] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 2-4 48.59 56.52 67 [13]
154 [18] Laney 3-AAA 2-3 48.51 52.49 101 [3]
155 [29] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 3-2 48.38 43.14 191 [42]
156 [30] Thomson 3-AAAA 1-4 48.25 57.98 55 [3]
157 [44] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 2-4 48.24 51.54 109 [32]
158 [45] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-4 48.14 55.88 73 [16]
159 [9] Screven County 3-AA 6-0 48.10 18.97 379 [49]
160 [31] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 2-3 47.93 55.36 76 [9]
161 [32] White County 8-AAAA 3-2 47.87 43.56 189 [41]
162 [33] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 1-4 47.74 63.30 35 [1]
163 [46] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-4 47.34 56.01 72 [15]
164 [53] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-5 47.00 68.51 19 [19]
165 [34] Baldwin 2-AAAA 3-3 46.98 44.42 181 [38]
166 [54] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-4 46.89 55.55 75 [48]
167 [47] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-1 46.87 34.96 266 [85]
168 [48] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 2-3 46.84 46.89 148 [49]
169 [19] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 4-1 46.67 34.29 276 [35]
170 [49] Loganville 8-AAAAA 3-2 46.64 45.21 169 [60]
171 [50] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-2 46.40 38.03 242 [79]
172 [51] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-3 46.36 44.97 172 [62]
173 [6] Landmark Christian 5-A 5-1 46.36 30.78 311 [18]
174 [52] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 3-3 46.26 44.04 185 [66]
175 [55] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-6 46.13 79.29 2 [2]
176 [53] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 46.10 45.69 161 [54]
177 [54] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-5 46.09 67.14 22 [1]
178 [10] Bowdon 5-AA 3-2 46.08 38.04 241 [19]
179 [11] Jefferson County 3-AA 3-3 45.72 42.78 195 [9]
180 [7] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 5-0 45.70 19.82 377 [53]
181 [20] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 4-2 45.35 34.72 269 [33]
182 [12] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 3-3 45.31 51.51 110 [3]
183 [8] Dooly County 4-A 4-1 45.30 33.08 292 [12]
184 [13] Darlington 7-AA 5-1 45.09 29.07 321 [36]
185 [9] Charlton County 2-A 5-1 45.08 32.02 301 [13]
186 [55] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-2 44.95 41.21 212 [74]
187 [35] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 2-2 44.70 46.15 153 [33]
188 [14] Macon County 4-AA 3-2 44.62 40.52 218 [15]
189 [10] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 5-0 44.52 16.15 388 [59]
190 [56] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-4 44.22 49.41 131 [43]
191 [57] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-3 44.18 47.31 142 [46]
193 [58] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-3 44.05 48.26 134 [44]
192 [21] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 3-2 44.05 41.33 211 [18]
194 [15] Early County 1-AA 2-3-1 43.81 42.58 199 [11]
195 [36] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 3-2 43.79 36.67 253 [52]
196 [11] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 4-1 43.57 33.57 286 [10]
197 [37] Fayette County 5-AAAA 2-3 43.43 47.27 143 [29]
198 [16] Bleckley County 4-AA 2-3 43.39 47.72 137 [5]
199 [59] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 43.34 40.79 217 [76]
200 [22] Jackson 2-AAA 3-2 43.27 40.10 221 [22]
201 [23] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 2-3 43.13 42.60 198 [13]
202 [60] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-3 42.88 43.04 193 [70]
203 [38] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 4-1 42.74 32.52 297 [62]
204 [61] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 2-3 42.49 45.19 170 [61]
205 [17] Model 7-AA 5-1 42.11 32.33 298 [29]
206 [56] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-5 42.02 62.78 38 [31]
207 [57] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-3 41.95 47.92 136 [56]
209 [13] Pacelli 4-A 4-2 41.83 34.97 265 [8]
208 [12] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 5-0 41.83 15.43 391 [61]
210 [14] Clinch County 2-A 3-3 41.77 40.81 216 [3]
211 [18] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 3-2 41.66 34.33 275 [26]
212 [15] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 4-1 40.99 26.78 335 [31]
213 [62] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-4 40.75 44.97 173 [63]
214 [24] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 3-2 40.56 38.69 236 [28]
215 [16] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 0-6 40.37 58.26 53 [1]
216 [63] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-5 40.22 57.50 61 [10]
217 [25] Oconee County 8-AAA 6-0 39.87 18.40 381 [64]
218 [39] Howard 2-AAAA 3-2-1 39.40 39.26 229 [46]
219 [40] Lithonia 6-AAAA 2-4 39.27 50.90 116 [22]
220 [41] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 3-2 39.22 34.78 268 [55]
221 [58] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-5 39.20 58.63 49 [40]
222 [42] Veterans 2-AAAA 0-5 38.94 62.92 37 [2]
223 [19] Union County 8-AA 6-0 38.66 7.28 409 [56]
224 [43] Madison County 8-AAAA 3-2 38.63 35.89 259 [54]
225 [59] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-3 38.58 38.38 239 [62]
226 [64] Shaw 1-AAAAA 3-3 38.41 36.67 254 [81]
227 [44] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 2-3 38.38 47.70 138 [27]
228 [45] Liberty County 3-AAAA 2-4 38.33 46.16 152 [32]
229 [46] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 2-4 38.28 46.23 151 [31]
230 [20] Berrien 1-AA 2-3 38.20 49.00 133 [4]
231 [65] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-5 38.11 60.88 44 [6]
232 [47] Perry 2-AAAA 1-5 38.11 54.33 85 [13]
233 [66] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-5 37.89 52.50 100 [26]
234 [17] Greenville 4-A 3-2 37.85 33.83 281 [9]
235 [18] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 3-2 37.82 28.81 322 [26]
236 [67] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 37.59 35.21 264 [84]
237 [21] Dublin 3-AA 3-3 37.57 35.37 263 [24]
238 [19] Brookstone 4-A 3-2 37.41 37.04 251 [5]
239 [48] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 2-4 36.96 49.67 127 [25]
240 [49] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 3-2 36.81 33.79 282 [59]
241 [50] North Hall 8-AAAA 0-5 36.60 57.95 56 [4]
242 [68] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 1-4-1 36.39 51.62 108 [31]
243 [20] Wilcox County 2-A 3-3 36.39 36.29 257 [6]
244 [69] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 1-4 36.13 54.64 81 [18]
245 [26] Cedartown 5-AAA 1-4 36.03 44.40 182 [12]
246 [51] Chestatee 8-AAAA 1-4 35.79 52.81 96 [18]
247 [21] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 4-2 35.60 24.78 347 [36]
248 [22] Coosa 7-AA 3-2 35.53 31.18 306 [33]
249 [70] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 2-3 35.51 43.13 192 [69]
250 [23] Rabun County 8-AA 4-2 35.40 27.50 332 [40]
251 [71] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 2-4 35.07 42.65 196 [71]
252 [24] Seminole County 1-AA 2-3 34.93 36.85 252 [22]
253 [22] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 4-2 34.83 22.42 364 [46]
254 [25] Pace Academy 6-AA 2-4 34.35 42.06 206 [14]
255 [27] Morgan County 8-AAA 3-2 34.17 25.41 343 [57]
256 [26] Swainsboro 3-AA 3-3 34.05 33.36 288 [28]
257 [23] Claxton 3-Div A-A 4-1 34.00 24.69 348 [37]
258 [60] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 3-3 33.97 34.86 267 [64]
259 [27] Bacon County 2-AA 2-3 33.75 37.90 246 [21]
260 [28] Bremen 5-AA 4-2 33.49 23.01 361 [45]
261 [28] Southwest 2-AAA 3-2 33.48 38.81 235 [27]
262 [72] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-6 33.13 53.67 90 [22]
263 [29] Wesleyan 6-AA 4-2 33.13 23.73 356 [43]
264 [24] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 3-2 33.09 30.37 312 [19]
265 [61] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 1-4 32.94 46.98 146 [57]
266 [30] Pelham 1-AA 3-2 32.74 30.01 315 [35]
267 [52] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 3-2 32.01 34.53 271 [57]
268 [29] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 3-3 31.70 32.97 295 [45]
269 [53] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 0-5 31.68 46.73 149 [30]
270 [25] Calhoun County 1-A 4-2 31.66 29.21 320 [25]
271 [26] Commerce 8-A 4-2 31.60 27.64 331 [29]
272 [27] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 3-3 31.51 26.05 339 [32]
273 [31] Heard County 5-AA 2-4 31.45 37.94 244 [20]
274 [28] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 4-2 31.42 23.39 358 [43]
275 [30] Sonoraville 6-AAA 4-2 31.40 22.85 362 [59]
276 [32] Northeast 4-AA 2-3 31.26 34.16 277 [27]
277 [54] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-0 31.15 4.69 413 [68]
278 [73] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-3 31.10 36.60 255 [82]
279 [31] Jackson County 8-AAA 1-5 30.93 42.08 205 [15]
280 [74] Columbus 1-AAAAA 2-4 30.92 41.79 209 [73]
281 [33] Monticello 4-AA 3-3 30.86 28.01 329 [39]
282 [75] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-5 30.70 53.65 91 [23]
283 [32] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 2-3-1 30.41 33.08 294 [44]
284 [29] Telfair County 2-A 4-2 30.18 25.90 340 [33]
285 [33] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 3-3 30.14 30.93 309 [48]
286 [30] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 4-1 30.14 21.52 370 [49]
287 [55] Chamblee 6-AAAA 1-4 30.00 34.64 270 [56]
288 [34] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-3 29.58 41.82 208 [16]
289 [31] Athens Christian 8-A 3-3 29.37 24.93 346 [35]
290 [34] Metter 3-AA 2-3 29.14 31.78 302 [31]
291 [35] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 2-4 29.10 38.55 238 [29]
292 [62] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-6 29.08 49.50 128 [55]
293 [76] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-5 28.84 51.68 107 [30]
294 [35] Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-5 28.62 39.12 231 [17]
295 [36] East Hall 7-AAA 2-3 28.49 32.79 296 [46]
296 [37] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 28.28 42.60 197 [14]
297 [77] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-5 28.25 45.59 164 [56]
298 [32] Atkinson County 2-A 4-2 28.22 24.18 351 [40]
299 [33] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 3-3 27.96 30.86 310 [17]
300 [56] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 3-3 27.94 26.66 336 [64]
301 [36] Dade County 7-AA 1-4 27.81 44.58 179 [8]
302 [34] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 3-3 27.19 30.34 313 [20]
303 [38] Spencer 2-AAA 1-4 27.17 44.77 175 [10]
304 [35] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 3-2 27.12 22.17 366 [47]
305 [37] Bryan County 2-AA 2-3 27.07 31.18 307 [34]
306 [38] Hapeville 6-AA 3-3 26.99 31.35 305 [32]
307 [36] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 4-1 26.82 9.57 405 [68]
308 [39] Pepperell 5-AAA 1-4 26.77 37.93 245 [30]
309 [57] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 1-5 26.68 42.11 204 [43]
310 [37] George Walton Academy 8-A 3-2 26.63 16.42 387 [58]
311 [78] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-5 26.38 45.34 166 [58]
312 [39] Manchester 5-AA 2-4 26.35 32.02 300 [30]
313 [40] Greene County 8-AA 3-3 26.35 28.37 324 [38]
314 [40] Kendrick 2-AAA 2-3 26.23 33.68 283 [39]
315 [41] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 2-3 25.61 36.32 256 [32]
316 [41] Jeff Davis 2-AA 4-1 24.97 14.59 393 [51]
317 [42] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 1-4 24.82 37.82 247 [31]
318 [43] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 24.73 38.83 233 [26]
319 [63] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-5 24.69 58.21 54 [43]
320 [42] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-5 24.57 46.91 147 [6]
321 [44] Jordan 2-AAA 2-4 24.54 29.37 319 [49]
322 [58] Redan 6-AAAA 1-5 24.30 43.79 187 [39]
323 [45] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 2-4 24.27 34.08 278 [36]
324 [38] Trion 6-Div A-A 4-2 24.16 15.63 390 [60]
325 [46] Rutland 2-AAA 1-5 24.00 40.42 220 [21]
326 [47] Franklin County 7-AAA 2-3 23.87 32.10 299 [47]
327 [48] Rockmart 5-AAA 1-4 23.76 33.59 285 [41]
328 [49] Fannin County 7-AAA 3-2 23.49 18.91 380 [63]
329 [79] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-4 23.47 49.75 125 [40]
330 [39] Turner County 2-A 3-3 23.40 24.37 350 [39]
331 [40] Athens Academy 8-A 2-2 23.16 11.31 402 [66]
332 [41] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 4-2 22.96 12.90 398 [64]
333 [50] North Murray 6-AAA 3-3 22.94 20.13 376 [62]
334 [42] Mitchell County 1-A 1-4 22.28 33.42 287 [11]
335 [51] Dawson County 7-AAA 0-5 22.22 40.43 219 [20]
336 [59] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 2-3 21.83 28.24 327 [63]
337 [43] Schley County 4-A 3-2 21.55 21.34 371 [50]
338 [80] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-4 21.51 45.80 159 [53]
339 [60] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 2-3 21.34 34.44 273 [58]
340 [44] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 1-4 21.02 31.12 308 [16]
341 [52] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-4 20.98 34.00 279 [37]
342 [64] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 1-5 20.56 64.36 32 [29]
343 [45] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 1-4 19.96 35.40 262 [7]
344 [81] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-5 19.74 47.19 144 [47]
345 [43] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-2 19.43 18.24 383 [50]
346 [53] Butler 3-AAA 2-2 19.31 20.55 374 [61]
347 [44] Long County 2-AA 1-4 19.14 34.50 272 [25]
348 [54] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 18.76 26.57 337 [53]
349 [46] Taylor County 4-A 0-4-1 18.68 29.80 317 [23]
350 [47] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 4-1 18.56 13.01 396 [63]
351 [48] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 2-3 18.23 20.17 375 [52]
352 [61] LaFayette 7-AAAA 2-3 18.18 23.05 360 [65]
353 [55] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 2-4 17.99 25.72 341 [55]
354 [62] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-6 17.77 54.67 80 [11]
355 [49] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 3-2 17.71 22.07 367 [48]
356 [56] Banks County 7-AAA 3-3 17.52 15.35 392 [66]
357 [63] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 0-5 17.36 38.00 243 [50]
358 [57] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 2-3 17.25 27.07 333 [52]
359 [50] Miller County 1-A 2-4 17.02 30.23 314 [21]
360 [64] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-5 17.00 33.28 291 [61]
361 [51] Portal 3-Div A-A 2-3 16.91 25.15 345 [34]
362 [82] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-6 16.76 40.96 213 [75]
363 [65] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 1-5 16.60 33.33 289 [60]
364 [83] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-5 16.57 45.26 168 [59]
365 [45] Putnam County 4-AA 2-4 16.39 23.43 357 [44]
366 [46] Groves 2-AA 3-2 16.26 12.47 399 [54]
367 [84] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-5 16.01 45.41 165 [57]
368 [47] East Laurens 3-AA 2-2-1 16.01 13.00 397 [53]
369 [58] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 15.83 28.37 325 [50]
370 [48] Chattooga 7-AA 2-4 15.65 24.07 353 [42]
371 [59] Hephzibah 3-AAA 4-1 15.30 -1.80 415 [69]
372 [60] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 1-4 13.67 33.95 280 [38]
373 [49] Gordon Lee 7-AA 2-4 13.14 19.49 378 [48]
374 [50] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-4 12.56 21.63 369 [47]
375 [61] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-4 12.16 25.53 342 [56]
376 [52] Terrell County 1-A 0-5 11.54 39.69 224 [4]
377 [53] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 2-3 11.27 11.30 403 [67]
378 [54] Lanier County 2-A 1-5 9.84 22.76 363 [45]
379 [62] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-6 9.53 54.91 78 [2]
380 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-6 9.13 45.94 155 [51]
381 [55] Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-4 9.09 18.29 382 [54]
382 [56] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 1-5 8.64 24.68 349 [38]
383 [57] Walker 6-Div A-A 1-5 8.56 23.21 359 [44]
384 [58] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 3-3 8.39 6.84 411 [71]
385 [59] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-4 7.94 28.36 326 [27]
386 [63] Josey 3-AAA 1-5 7.48 25.24 344 [58]
387 [66] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-5 7.26 54.83 79 [10]
388 [60] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 1-5 7.09 23.90 355 [42]
389 [61] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-4 7.02 29.88 316 [22]
390 [64] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 3-3 5.91 7.38 407 [68]
391 [62] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-5 5.65 26.80 334 [30]
392 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-5 4.58 22.34 365 [66]
393 [63] Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-4 4.12 17.26 384 [55]
394 [51] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-5 3.54 39.71 223 [16]
395 [52] Crawford County 4-AA† 3-4 2.94 5.55 412 [57]
396 [64] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-5 2.72 28.05 328 [28]
397 [65] Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-6 2.51 33.29 290 [42]
398 [65] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 1-5 1.48 16.98 386 [57]
399 [66] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-5 1.15 20.74 373 [60]
400 [67] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-4 -0.23 26.22 338 [54]
401 [53] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-5 -0.88 35.54 261 [23]
402 [54] Harlem 3-AA 1-5 -1.14 24.14 352 [41]
403 [66] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-3 -1.32 1.18 414 [72]
404 [55] Temple 5-AA 2-4 -1.54 7.36 408 [55]
405 [56] Armuchee 7-AA 1-5 -2.39 13.68 395 [52]
406 [68] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 1-5 -3.81 11.71 400 [67]
407 [68] Murray County 6-AAA 1-4 -4.63 16.08 389 [65]
408 [67] Towns County 8-A 1-5 -5.17 14.56 394 [62]
409 [68] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 2-3 -6.55 -2.39 416 [73]
410 [69] Baconton 1-A 1-5 -7.14 17.10 385 [56]
411 [70] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-6 -12.27 7.23 410 [70]
412 [69] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-5 -12.92 11.29 404 [67]
413 [57] Social Circle 8-AA 0-5 -13.26 21.68 368 [46]
414 [71] Stewart County 1-A† 0-6 -14.53 11.47 401 [65]
415 [72] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 1-4 -17.61 8.56 406 [69]
416 [69] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-3 -26.70 -3.04 417 [69]
417 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-5 -30.78 21.10 372 [51]
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 98.66 80.65
2 7 - AAAAAA 88.75 69.24
3 8 - AAAAAA 87.69 69.58
4 4 - AAAAAA 83.40 67.90
5 5 - AAAAAA 82.34 66.62
6 5 - AAAA 81.30 62.37
7 2 - AAAAAA 79.81 56.48
8 3 - AAAAAA 76.08 58.22
9 3 - AAAAA 75.00 54.71
10 5 - AAAAA 74.11 56.15
11 6 - AAAAA 72.20 54.43
6 - Div B - AAAAA 79.99 60.71
6 - Div A - AAAAA 64.84 50.09
12 6 - AAAAAA 69.33 51.69
13 2 - AAAAA 68.08 48.59
14 8 - AAAAA 67.91 50.23
15 8 - AAA 66.71 43.57
16 1 - AAAA 66.01 46.02
1 - Div A - AAAA 71.00 49.29
1 - Div B - AAAA 60.75 43.65
17 8 - AAAA 65.94 45.87
18 6 - AAAA 65.35 45.35
19 1 - AA 64.51 46.65
20 1 - AAAAA 64.01 41.98
21 7 - AAAAA 63.69 44.62
7 - Div B - AAAAA 64.81 44.55
7 - Div A - AAAAA 62.60 44.66
22 2 - AAAA 63.64 47.27
23 7 - AAAA 63.34 42.72
24 6 - AA 62.51 37.35
25 4 - AAAAA 61.70 45.51
4 - Div B - AAAAA 63.16 48.36
4 - Div A - AAAAA 60.21 42.36
26 4 - AAA 60.20 35.46
4 - Div B - AAA 68.28 43.27
4 - Div A - AAA 49.97 29.21
27 2 - AAA 59.13 35.34
28 3 - AAAA 59.04 43.59
29 4 - AAAA 58.45 37.71
4 - Div B - AAAA 62.51 36.60
4 - Div A - AAAA 56.13 38.70
30 6 - AAA 58.07 22.49
31 2 - AA 56.81 31.13
32 3 - AAA 55.60 25.01
33 5 - AAA 55.52 34.02
34 4 - A 54.43 36.09
35 4 - AA 53.01 37.34
36 2 - A 51.40 33.76
37 1 - AAA 50.71 31.11
1 - Div A - AAA 56.68 40.14
1 - Div B - AAA 38.46 19.77
38 3 - AA 49.88 31.58
39 5 - A 48.58 29.28
40 7 - AA 45.67 26.05
41 5 - AA 44.85 26.95
42 3 - A 44.42 24.36
3 - Div A - A 48.06 29.62
3 - Div B - A 38.63 16.68
43 7 - A 44.14 26.53
7 - Div A - A 45.28 28.32
7 - Div B - A 42.47 23.86
44 7 - AAA 43.94 27.08
45 8 - AA 43.06 22.63
46 6 - A 41.04 23.84
6 - Div A - A 41.36 25.62
6 - Div B - A 40.75 22.29
47 8 - A 36.17 15.96
48 1 - A 29.48 14.44

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
10/03 Washington-Wilkes Greene County 7 - 16 15.80 82.9% 0.231
10/03 Walton Pope 36 - 44 14.70 81.3% 0.251
09/19 Northside (Warner Robins) Jones County 37 - 45 12.43 77.6% 0.288
09/19 Milton Roswell 31 - 33 13.90 80.1% 0.291
08/23 Monroe Perry 14 - 21 11.84 76.6% 0.301
10/03 Roswell Wheeler 14 - 28 9.84 72.8% 0.314
08/29 North Gwinnett North Cobb 29 - 36 10.59 74.2% 0.322
08/22 Athens Christian Strong Rock Christian 7 - 8 12.15 77.1% 0.324
09/19 Early County Calhoun County 12 - 14 11.66 76.2% 0.326
09/05 Butler Josey 20 - 22 11.34 75.7% 0.331
10/03 East Paulding Paulding County 10 - 12 11.05 75.1% 0.336
09/12 Metter Long County 20 - 28 9.51 72.1% 0.337
09/26 Westside (Augusta) Butler 27 - 29 10.61 74.3% 0.343
08/22 Lamar County Howard 19 - 19 17.71 85.5% 0.352
08/29 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 22 - 21 35.29 97.2% 0.355

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.56 0905 Buford McEachern 27 - 20 10.36 73.8%
87.55 10/03 Colquitt County Lowndes 45 - 27 16.49 83.9%
87.02 10/17 Colquitt County Valdosta - 16.53 83.9%
86.36 10/24 Grayson Dacula - 6.17 64.9%
85.13 10/03 North Gwinnett Norcross 10 - 17 0.13 50.3%
85.06 08/23 McEachern North Gwinnett 49 - 52 0.22 50.5%
84.93 10/31 Lowndes Valdosta - 0.53 51.3%
84.43 09/05 Grayson Hughes 26 - 16 8.45 70.0%
83.72 09/05 Norcross Milton 0 - 26 2.41 56.0%
83.50 08/23 Norcross Tucker 32 - 29 3.14 57.8%
83.04 10/24 Norcross Peachtree Ridge - 3.45 58.5%
83.03 11/07 Colquitt County Camden County - 20.54 88.6%
82.92 10/10 North Gwinnett Peachtree Ridge - 3.10 57.7%
82.91 10/10 Lowndes Camden County - 4.54 61.2%
82.82 09/12 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 35 - 21 4.28 60.5%

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Todd Holcomb

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