These are the Class AAA preseason predictions of the Maxwell Ratings, a computer-based ranking system created by Loren Maxwell. The projections are based on historical scores, with 2015 results being most significant.
Here are five observations on the new Class AAA.
*With four of Maxwell's top 10 teams, Region 5 is the super league. Westminster is the defending state champion, and Pace Academy won AA last season. Pace has Class A enrollment but elected to play with Buckhead neighbors Westminster and Lovett. Cedar Grove was a AAA semifinalist last season and finished ahead of Westminster in the region. (Most would consider Pace's No. 10 ranking much too low, as Maxwell's model favors long-standing tradition.)
*There are nine metro Atlanta teams in AAA. Eight are in Region 5. The ninth, Greater Atlanta Christian, is Maxwell's second-rated team in the class, and that was without Maxwell computing that GAC returned AJC Super 11 QB Davis Mills. One wonders if the GHSA didn't want Region 5 to be too strong and banished GAC to Region 7, where the Spartans are projected to have very pleasant trips to the North Georgia mountains.
*Region 6 is the only subdivided region outside of Class A. Calhoun's winning streak in region games, already more than 100, is highly likely to continue. Maxwell rates Calhoun as a 20-plus-point favorite over its nearest rival.
*Region 3 is the land of opportunity. This is a region of Savannah teams, plus Southeast Bulloch, which is the most recent in the region to claim a region title (1994). Jenkins, Maxwell's team to beat, last won a region title in 1966. The last Savannah team to win a region title was Savannah in 1993.
*Liberty County is Maxwell's team to beat in Region 2. Liberty has never won a region title. Worth County, the favorite in Region 1, last won a region title in 1989, the year of the Rams' only state championship.
Overall | Region | ||||||
Rnk | SOS | Region 1 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
6 | 7 | Worth County | 7.56 | 2.44 | 3.08 | 0.92 | 53.20 |
13 | 1 | Cook | 5.51 | 4.49 | 2.47 | 1.53 | 46.25 |
14 | 4 | Monroe | 5.17 | 3.83 | 2.37 | 1.63 | 45.40 |
18 | 17 | Crisp County | 5.65 | 4.35 | 1.84 | 2.16 | 39.53 |
41 | 15 | Dougherty | 1.87 | 8.13 | 0.23 | 3.77 | 17.82 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 2 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
12 | 26 | Liberty County | 7.63 | 2.37 | 3.96 | 1.04 | 47.44 |
15 | 20 | Pierce County | 6.53 | 3.47 | 3.63 | 1.37 | 43.36 |
17 | 11 | Appling County | 5.37 | 4.63 | 3.35 | 1.65 | 40.61 |
30 | 30 | Brantley County | 4.47 | 5.53 | 1.83 | 3.17 | 26.68 |
33 | 32 | Tattnall County | 3.97 | 6.03 | 1.57 | 3.43 | 24.20 |
45 | 43 | Long County | 3.90 | 6.10 | 0.66 | 4.34 | 14.34 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 3 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
20 | 56 | Jenkins | 7.68 | 2.32 | 6.29 | 0.71 | 35.70 |
24 | 51 | Southeast Bulloch | 7.20 | 2.80 | 6.12 | 0.88 | 33.11 |
46 | 48 | Beach | 4.57 | 5.43 | 4.10 | 2.90 | 13.87 |
47 | 50 | Johnson (Savannah) | 3.89 | 6.11 | 3.36 | 3.64 | 8.11 |
48 | 55 | Savannah | 4.43 | 5.57 | 3.34 | 3.66 | 8.04 |
53 | 57 | Groves | 2.71 | 7.29 | 1.99 | 5.01 | -2.00 |
54 | 53 | Windsor Forest | 2.00 | 8.00 | 1.65 | 5.35 | -4.68 |
55 | 52 | Islands | 1.49 | 8.51 | 1.15 | 5.85 | -8.95 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 4 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
7 | 9 | Peach County | 7.01 | 2.99 | 5.11 | 0.89 | 53.05 |
9 | 23 | Westside (Macon) | 7.64 | 2.36 | 4.85 | 1.15 | 50.66 |
16 | 19 | Jackson | 6.19 | 3.81 | 3.93 | 2.07 | 41.78 |
22 | 37 | Central (Macon) | 6.11 | 3.89 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 34.39 |
36 | 16 | Kendrick | 2.49 | 7.51 | 1.66 | 4.34 | 22.50 |
39 | 18 | Rutland | 2.25 | 7.75 | 1.34 | 4.66 | 19.48 |
44 | 22 | Pike County | 2.44 | 7.56 | 1.01 | 4.99 | 14.91 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 5 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
3 | 2 | Westminster | 7.60 | 2.40 | 5.92 | 1.08 | 61.30 |
4 | 6 | Lovett | 7.08 | 2.92 | 5.58 | 1.42 | 58.68 |
5 | 5 | Cedar Grove | 7.38 | 2.62 | 5.47 | 1.53 | 58.65 |
10 | 8 | Pace Academy | 6.24 | 3.76 | 4.65 | 2.35 | 50.44 |
31 | 3 | Redan | 3.04 | 6.96 | 2.45 | 4.55 | 26.23 |
37 | 33 | Towers | 4.15 | 5.85 | 2.12 | 4.88 | 22.49 |
43 | 38 | McNair | 3.82 | 6.18 | 1.44 | 5.56 | 15.11 |
52 | 10 | Stone Mountain | 1.04 | 8.96 | 0.37 | 6.63 | 0.34 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 6-North | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
23 | 47 | Ringgold | 6.66 | 2.34 | 3.82 | 0.18 | 34.28 |
42 | 49 | North Murray | 4.40 | 4.60 | 2.80 | 1.20 | 15.44 |
51 | 46 | Murray County | 3.03 | 5.97 | 1.87 | 2.13 | 2.81 |
56 | 45 | Coahulla Creek | 1.13 | 7.87 | 0.95 | 3.05 | -9.48 |
57 | 54 | LFO | 0.91 | 8.09 | 0.56 | 3.44 | -15.63 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 6-South | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
1 | 36 | Calhoun | 7.91 | 1.09 | 3.90 | 0.10 | 71.40 |
11 | 29 | Adairsville | 6.82 | 2.18 | 2.84 | 1.16 | 47.95 |
27 | 14 | Sonoraville | 3.65 | 5.35 | 1.70 | 2.30 | 30.26 |
35 | 34 | Bremen | 3.86 | 5.14 | 1.31 | 2.69 | 23.65 |
49 | 44 | Haralson County | 2.61 | 6.39 | 0.25 | 3.75 | 6.15 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 7 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
2 | 13 | GAC | 8.72 | 1.28 | 5.84 | 0.16 | 66.74 |
19 | 27 | North Hall | 6.35 | 3.65 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 39.20 |
26 | 24 | Dawson County | 4.86 | 5.14 | 2.94 | 3.06 | 30.90 |
28 | 39 | East Hall | 5.50 | 4.50 | 2.71 | 3.29 | 29.19 |
29 | 31 | Union County | 5.67 | 4.33 | 2.63 | 3.37 | 28.23 |
38 | 35 | Lumpkin County | 3.36 | 6.64 | 1.51 | 4.49 | 19.72 |
40 | 28 | Fannin County | 3.52 | 6.48 | 1.37 | 4.63 | 18.70 |
Rnk | SOS | Region 8 | ProjW | ProjL | ProjW | ProjL | Rating |
8 | 12 | Hart County | 7.06 | 2.94 | 4.60 | 0.40 | 51.29 |
21 | 25 | Morgan County | 5.58 | 4.42 | 3.14 | 1.86 | 34.82 |
25 | 40 | Jackson County | 6.36 | 3.64 | 2.88 | 2.12 | 31.74 |
32 | 41 | Monroe Area | 5.05 | 4.95 | 2.14 | 2.86 | 24.91 |
34 | 21 | Franklin County | 3.44 | 6.56 | 1.93 | 3.07 | 23.70 |
50 | 42 | East Jackson | 2.35 | 7.65 | 0.31 | 4.69 | 3.72 |
Coming Wednesday: Class AA
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