Maxwell Ratings' projections for Class AAA regions

These are the Class AAA preseason predictions of the Maxwell Ratings, a computer-based ranking system created by Loren Maxwell. The projections are based on historical scores, with 2015 results being most significant.

Here are five observations on the new Class AAA.

*With four of Maxwell's top 10 teams, Region 5 is the super league. Westminster is the defending state champion, and Pace Academy won AA last season. Pace has Class A enrollment but elected to play with Buckhead neighbors Westminster and Lovett. Cedar Grove was a AAA semifinalist last season and finished ahead of Westminster in the region. (Most would consider Pace's No. 10 ranking much too low, as Maxwell's model favors long-standing tradition.)

*There are nine metro Atlanta teams in AAA. Eight are in Region 5. The ninth, Greater Atlanta Christian, is Maxwell's second-rated team in the class, and that was without Maxwell computing that GAC returned AJC Super 11 QB Davis Mills. One wonders if the GHSA didn't want Region 5 to be too strong and banished GAC to Region 7, where the Spartans are projected to have very pleasant trips to the North Georgia mountains.

*Region 6 is the only subdivided region outside of Class A. Calhoun's winning streak in region games, already more than 100, is highly likely to continue. Maxwell rates Calhoun as a 20-plus-point favorite over its nearest rival.

*Region 3 is the land of opportunity. This is a region of Savannah teams, plus Southeast Bulloch, which is the most recent in the region to claim a region title (1994). Jenkins, Maxwell's team to beat, last won a region title in 1966. The last Savannah team to win a region title was Savannah in 1993.

*Liberty County is Maxwell's team to beat in Region 2. Liberty has never won a region title. Worth County, the favorite in Region 1, last won a region title in 1989, the year of the Rams' only state championship.

    Overall Region  
Rnk SOS Region 1 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
6 7 Worth County 7.56 2.44 3.08 0.92 53.20
13 1 Cook 5.51 4.49 2.47 1.53 46.25
14 4 Monroe 5.17 3.83 2.37 1.63 45.40
18 17 Crisp County 5.65 4.35 1.84 2.16 39.53
41 15 Dougherty 1.87 8.13 0.23 3.77 17.82
Rnk SOS Region 2 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
12 26 Liberty County 7.63 2.37 3.96 1.04 47.44
15 20 Pierce County 6.53 3.47 3.63 1.37 43.36
17 11 Appling County 5.37 4.63 3.35 1.65 40.61
30 30 Brantley County 4.47 5.53 1.83 3.17 26.68
33 32 Tattnall County 3.97 6.03 1.57 3.43 24.20
45 43 Long County 3.90 6.10 0.66 4.34 14.34
Rnk SOS Region 3 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
20 56 Jenkins 7.68 2.32 6.29 0.71 35.70
24 51 Southeast Bulloch 7.20 2.80 6.12 0.88 33.11
46 48 Beach 4.57 5.43 4.10 2.90 13.87
47 50 Johnson (Savannah) 3.89 6.11 3.36 3.64 8.11
48 55 Savannah 4.43 5.57 3.34 3.66 8.04
53 57 Groves 2.71 7.29 1.99 5.01 -2.00
54 53 Windsor Forest 2.00 8.00 1.65 5.35 -4.68
55 52 Islands 1.49 8.51 1.15 5.85 -8.95
Rnk SOS Region 4 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
7 9 Peach County 7.01 2.99 5.11 0.89 53.05
9 23 Westside (Macon) 7.64 2.36 4.85 1.15 50.66
16 19 Jackson 6.19 3.81 3.93 2.07 41.78
22 37 Central (Macon) 6.11 3.89 3.10 2.90 34.39
36 16 Kendrick 2.49 7.51 1.66 4.34 22.50
39 18 Rutland 2.25 7.75 1.34 4.66 19.48
44 22 Pike County 2.44 7.56 1.01 4.99 14.91
Rnk SOS Region 5 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
3 2 Westminster 7.60 2.40 5.92 1.08 61.30
4 6 Lovett 7.08 2.92 5.58 1.42 58.68
5 5 Cedar Grove 7.38 2.62 5.47 1.53 58.65
10 8 Pace Academy 6.24 3.76 4.65 2.35 50.44
31 3 Redan 3.04 6.96 2.45 4.55 26.23
37 33 Towers 4.15 5.85 2.12 4.88 22.49
43 38 McNair 3.82 6.18 1.44 5.56 15.11
52 10 Stone Mountain 1.04 8.96 0.37 6.63 0.34
Rnk SOS Region 6-North ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
23 47 Ringgold 6.66 2.34 3.82 0.18 34.28
42 49 North Murray 4.40 4.60 2.80 1.20 15.44
51 46 Murray County 3.03 5.97 1.87 2.13 2.81
56 45 Coahulla Creek 1.13 7.87 0.95 3.05 -9.48
57 54 LFO 0.91 8.09 0.56 3.44 -15.63
Rnk SOS Region 6-South ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
1 36 Calhoun 7.91 1.09 3.90 0.10 71.40
11 29 Adairsville 6.82 2.18 2.84 1.16 47.95
27 14 Sonoraville 3.65 5.35 1.70 2.30 30.26
35 34 Bremen 3.86 5.14 1.31 2.69 23.65
49 44 Haralson County 2.61 6.39 0.25 3.75 6.15
Rnk SOS Region 7 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
2 13 GAC 8.72 1.28 5.84 0.16 66.74
19 27 North Hall 6.35 3.65 4.00 2.00 39.20
26 24 Dawson County 4.86 5.14 2.94 3.06 30.90
28 39 East Hall 5.50 4.50 2.71 3.29 29.19
29 31 Union County 5.67 4.33 2.63 3.37 28.23
38 35 Lumpkin County 3.36 6.64 1.51 4.49 19.72
40 28 Fannin County 3.52 6.48 1.37 4.63 18.70
Rnk SOS Region 8 ProjW ProjL ProjW ProjL Rating
8 12 Hart County 7.06 2.94 4.60 0.40 51.29
21 25 Morgan County 5.58 4.42 3.14 1.86 34.82
25 40 Jackson County 6.36 3.64 2.88 2.12 31.74
32 41 Monroe Area 5.05 4.95 2.14 2.86 24.91
34 21 Franklin County 3.44 6.56 1.93 3.07 23.70
50 42 East Jackson 2.35 7.65 0.31 4.69 3.72

Coming Wednesday: Class AA

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