Maxwell Playoff Projections: Semifinals
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Markov Chain analysis of the 2015 playoffs. The analysis represents 1,000,000 iterations.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
Class AAAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mill Creek | R 7, #1 | 13-0 | 96.39 | 82.39 | 3.90 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 567,584 | 327,986 | 2.05 |
| Grayson | R 8, #1 | 13-0 | 94.60 | 80.09 | 3.93 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 632,510 | 295,107 | 2.39 |
| Colquitt County | R 1, #1 | 13-0 | 95.35 | 80.22 | 3.67 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 432,416 | 238,915 | 3.19 |
| Roswell | R 5, #1 | 13-0 | 90.85 | 82.36 | 3.51 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 367,490 | 137,992 | 6.25 |
Class AAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northgate | R 4, #2 | 12-1 | 73.92 | 62.91 | 3.79 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 502,500 | 289,361 | 2.46 |
| Allatoona | R 5, #1 | 12-1 | 72.14 | 63.75 | 3.76 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 497,500 | 264,616 | 2.78 |
| Glynn Academy | R 3, #2 | 11-2 | 70.98 | 65.35 | 3.79 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 548,348 | 246,164 | 3.06 |
| Ware County | R 3, #3 | 11-2 | 70.72 | 65.77 | 3.65 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 451,652 | 199,859 | 4.00 |
Class AAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | R 8, #1 | 12-1 | 76.82 | 61.56 | 3.83 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 512,747 | 320,073 | 2.12 |
| Woodward Academy | R 5, #1 | 13-0 | 77.99 | 60.95 | 3.80 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 487,253 | 317,229 | 2.15 |
| Cartersville | R 7, #1 | 13-0 | 73.09 | 60.38 | 3.88 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 633,439 | 249,709 | 3.00 |
| Bainbridge | R 1, #1 | 13-0 | 69.30 | 64.69 | 3.48 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 366,561 | 112,989 | 7.85 |
Class AAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blessed Trinity | R 4, #1 | 12-0-1 | 69.92 | 51.64 | 4.08 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 634,136 | 444,920 | 1.25 |
| Cedar Grove | R 4, #2 | 11-1-1 | 63.20 | 48.98 | 4.13 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 821,127 | 304,605 | 2.28 |
| Calhoun | R 6, #1 | 13-0 | 66.10 | 51.69 | 3.59 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 365,864 | 226,704 | 3.41 |
| Westminster (Atlanta) | R 4, #3 | 9-4 | 49.64 | 52.46 | 3.20 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 178,873 | 23,770 | 41.07 |
Class AA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Atlanta Christian | R 6, #1 | 12-1 | 64.09 | 45.42 | 4.30 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 802,976 | 497,511 | 1.01 |
| Fitzgerald | R 1, #2 | 12-1 | 61.95 | 49.16 | 4.06 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 707,236 | 356,174 | 1.81 |
| Jefferson County | R 3, #1 | 11-2 | 51.45 | 50.52 | 3.37 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 292,764 | 80,237 | 11.46 |
| Pace Academy | R 6, #4 | 11-2 | 51.72 | 50.09 | 3.26 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 197,024 | 66,078 | 14.13 |
Class A - Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch County | 5 | 11-1 | 45.63 | 30.80 | 3.06 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 684,386 | 375,699 | 1.66 |
| Irwin County | 3 | 9-2-1 | 42.79 | 35.18 | 2.76 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 498,250 | 258,135 | 2.87 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 2 | 11-1 | 41.18 | 34.63 | 2.74 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 501,750 | 240,155 | 3.16 |
| Commerce | 9 | 9-3 | 39.57 | 38.54 | 2.44 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 315,614 | 126,011 | 6.94 |
Class A - Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Seed | Record | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Avenue Christian | 1 | 12-0 | 63.16 | 41.15 | 3.26 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 684,817 | 578,801 | 0.73 |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 4 | 9-3 | 57.08 | 47.63 | 2.53 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 315,183 | 219,511 | 3.56 |
| Aquinas | 3 | 11-1 | 49.66 | 42.93 | 2.91 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 732,237 | 173,295 | 4.77 |
| Stratford Academy | 10 | 9-3 | 41.28 | 45.70 | 2.30 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 267,763 | 28,394 | 34.22 |
