Sports

Maxwell playoff projections: Round One

By Loren Maxwell
Nov 10, 2015
NOTE: The calculation for the Draw was updated on 10 Nov at 4:00pm.  Previously it was the average rating of each expected opponent from the opening position in the bracket through the title game, pro-rated for the probability of facing each opponent.  Now it's been updated to show the rating required to win the championship 3.125% of the time (which is 1 divided by the number of teams in the bracket, or 1/32) from that position in the bracket.

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Markov Chain analysis of the 2015 playoffs. The analysis represents 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Colquitt County R 1, #1 10-0 96.73 79.00 3.78 917,785 889,482 615,857 365,887 1.73
Grayson R 8, #1 10-0 95.83 80.94 3.52 935,400 782,822 528,096 289,055 2.46
Roswell R 5, #1 10-0 91.64 82.01 2.97 764,596 735,402 349,818 156,440 5.39
Mill Creek R 7, #1 10-0 89.43 83.30 2.83 966,797 565,016 218,389 92,048 9.86
Archer R 8, #2 9-1 90.90 86.84 2.22 722,146 363,959 137,109 62,509 15.00
Peachtree Ridge R 7, #2 7-3 83.04 85.22 2.09 860,438 195,383 69,706 18,303 53.64
Camden County R 1, #2 9-1 81.02 85.60 1.43 229,381 202,762 46,377 10,530 93.97
McEachern R 4, #1 9-1 78.99 88.62 1.00 216,303 61,185 12,820 2,733 364.95
Walton R 5, #2 9-1 75.24 86.45 0.97 76,438 58,859 10,913 1,741 573.46
Valdosta R 1, #3 7-3 70.84 87.86 0.87 58,039 15,912 2,525 252 3,959.52
South Forsyth R 6, #1 9-1 64.68 85.03 0.95 397,812 24,736 2,216 143 6,974.72
Norcross R 7, #4 7-3 65.61 85.86 0.82 331,115 17,860 1,377 97 10,325.40
Lowndes R 1, #4 6-4 72.27 90.28 0.35 43,156 6,576 763 96 10,467.86
Newton R 2, #1 8-2 61.81 84.20 1.28 476,949 35,939 2,119 94 10,610.68
Collins Hill R 7, #3 5-5 60.65 85.20 0.84 275,006 14,600 610 24 41,060.97
Etowah R 5, #3 8-2 66.98 90.33 0.09 18,395 1,893 153 12 82,493.58
Westlake R 3, #1 8-2 57.81 86.55 1.10 114,251 4,448 328 10 99,643.06
Central Gwinnett R 8, #3 6-4 61.90 87.59 0.19 5,300 2,497 138 7 143,924.40
Lambert R 6, #2 8-2 56.58 85.12 0.64 181,315 7,213 229 6 160,654.67
Tucker R 2, #2 7-3 56.80 85.59 0.87 200,988 5,374 197 6 162,571.14
Parkview R 8, #4 6-4 59.82 87.90 0.04 3,893 1,764 67 2 401,751.02
West Forsyth R 6, #3 7-3 56.99 87.86 0.08 25,263 776 44 1 810,797.82
Newnan R 3, #2 8-2 55.33 88.31 0.67 21,773 1,055 36 1 1,017,307.39
North Cobb R 4, #2 5-5 55.32 88.18 0.21 4,307 466 24 1 1,693,921.74
Hillgrove R 4, #3 6-4 55.48 87.81 0.06 2,130 782 20 1 1,992,064.62
East Coweta R 3, #4 8-2 51.72 85.36 0.30 66,731 1,538 28 2,101,241.43
Hughes R 3, #3 5-5 51.88 85.87 0.41 70,086 1,106 24 2,139,009.83
Wheeler R 5, #4 5-5 53.72 88.48 0.01 2,254 194 8 5,917,116.41
Lovejoy R 2, #3 5-5 51.39 88.56 0.37 8,806 271 6 8,443,926.36
North Paulding R 4, #4 3-7 48.28 87.51 0.01 477 87 1 55,161,340.95
Northview R 6, #4 6-4 45.45 88.61 0.01 2,624 44 1 164,119,850.64
Lakeside (Atlanta) R 2, #4 4-6 20.08 87.72 0.02 48 18,220,117,201,142.30

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Stephenson R 6, #1 9-1 86.35 64.73 3.89 867,077 824,385 681,992 545,276 0.83
Mays R 6, #2 9-1 77.86 69.20 2.51 622,205 474,789 334,730 139,624 6.16
Stockbridge R 4, #1 10-0 73.51 66.18 2.80 876,953 645,670 202,170 109,031 8.17
Northgate R 4, #2 9-1 71.04 68.42 2.28 687,220 398,347 177,188 50,386 18.85
Houston County R 2, #1 9-1 71.00 70.62 1.59 348,224 226,771 133,136 37,766 25.48
Coffee R 3, #1 9-1 68.57 69.39 1.79 515,990 281,483 120,739 29,346 33.08
Allatoona R 5, #1 9-1 66.45 68.97 1.86 602,615 200,516 95,504 20,139 48.66
Creekside R 6, #3 8-2 68.22 70.42 1.54 422,460 194,190 69,695 16,555 59.41
Glynn Academy R 3, #2 8-2 67.30 71.41 1.15 404,776 150,298 29,653 11,679 84.62
Jones County R 2, #3 9-1 67.11 71.87 0.92 324,820 118,231 22,395 8,724 113.62
Northside (Warner Robins) R 2, #2 9-1 67.33 72.68 0.71 72,545 51,950 20,963 8,271 119.91
Starr's Mill R 4, #3 9-1 64.80 70.77 1.33 369,082 89,419 33,372 6,272 158.44
Ware County R 3, #3 8-2 66.94 73.16 0.56 55,680 38,550 14,688 5,666 175.50
Lanier R 8, #1 10-0 62.77 70.49 1.07 249,412 101,749 30,808 4,999 199.04
Carver (Columbus) R 1, #1 9-1 59.12 69.83 0.99 366,602 37,354 10,083 2,312 431.54
South Paulding R 5, #2 8-2 57.60 70.06 1.13 349,731 27,780 6,060 1,239 806.23
Dalton R 7, #1 8-2 57.52 70.76 0.84 188,943 43,384 5,041 1,024 975.40
Drew R 4, #4 7-3 57.92 71.04 0.66 216,456 16,036 3,288 689 1,450.69
Alexander R 5, #3 8-2 54.70 71.21 0.70 80,536 21,326 1,699 276 3,619.22
East Paulding R 5, #4 8-2 57.08 72.33 0.39 60,322 14,092 2,269 237 4,217.19
Carver (Atlanta) R 6, #4 7-3 55.49 72.02 0.50 81,460 13,864 1,142 198 5,053.51
South Effingham R 3, #4 7-3 56.09 73.92 0.18 17,795 4,463 878 85 11,823.58
Warner Robins R 2, #4 7-3 53.62 72.55 0.20 34,673 6,091 738 58 17,281.08
Gainesville R 8, #2 7-3 48.81 71.27 0.44 34,892 6,551 346 34 29,278.48
Rome R 7, #4 7-3 52.96 73.61 0.03 4,698 1,650 230 32 30,816.85
Creekview R 7, #3 7-3 53.31 73.82 0.08 11,776 2,551 418 32 31,342.25
Loganville R 8, #3 8-2 48.67 71.01 0.32 67,210 2,294 234 23 43,973.58
Kell R 7, #2 7-3 49.85 71.95 0.19 26,877 3,883 380 21 46,515.05
Northside (Columbus) R 1, #2 6-3 46.50 71.86 0.19 22,005 1,301 131 6 181,550.03
Columbus R 1, #4 7-3 41.84 71.72 0.04 7,618 676 18 1 1,092,503.69
Winder-Barrow R 8, #4 6-4 40.59 72.30 0.06 6,298 192 10 4,198,781.61
Shaw R 1, #3 5-5 38.62 72.09 0.03 3,046 165 5 9,330,427.87

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Woodward Academy R 5, #1 10-0 72.12 57.43 3.30 869,516 665,760 464,156 312,207 2.20
Cartersville R 7, #1 10-0 67.65 57.10 2.99 818,918 610,673 385,596 192,799 4.19
Bainbridge R 1, #1 10-0 66.87 59.45 2.43 618,444 486,463 277,603 133,660 6.48
Buford R 8, #1 9-1 65.67 59.24 2.51 763,101 465,116 202,726 106,380 8.40
Thomson R 3, #1 9-1 63.63 58.69 2.43 846,815 439,742 171,800 81,775 11.23
Mary Persons R 2, #1 10-0 63.30 60.46 2.03 718,210 251,753 124,347 58,211 16.18
Jonesboro R 4, #1 9-1 60.34 59.11 1.99 705,277 277,711 128,907 42,927 22.30
Sandy Creek R 5, #2 8-2 62.36 60.82 1.69 365,119 244,601 103,587 39,047 24.61
St. Pius X R 6, #1 8-2 55.40 59.48 1.79 580,456 174,212 55,011 13,071 75.51
Spalding R 4, #3 9-1 56.46 63.69 0.85 107,777 41,502 12,204 3,837 259.62
Liberty County R 3, #2 7-3 54.47 62.47 0.79 116,818 51,173 15,246 3,383 294.64
Burke County R 3, #3 7-3 54.67 62.11 0.85 240,738 56,441 14,838 3,341 298.28
Worth County R 1, #3 7-3 55.66 63.94 0.67 121,492 43,221 8,858 2,642 377.56
Locust Grove R 4, #2 9-1 54.14 63.86 0.67 113,882 37,543 7,021 1,887 528.93
Marist R 6, #2 8-2 51.41 62.59 1.15 228,358 32,342 6,748 1,489 670.48
West Laurens R 2, #2 7-3 51.44 62.16 0.69 177,069 34,748 7,448 1,309 763.17
Upson-Lee R 2, #3 8-2 52.11 63.08 0.49 63,239 24,055 5,794 1,073 930.75
Carrollton R 5, #3 5-5 47.25 61.56 0.75 144,495 19,855 3,317 413 2,420.47
Thomas County Central R 1, #4 6-4 46.19 62.26 0.26 79,993 9,866 1,491 170 5,897.11
Veterans R 2, #4 4-6 44.71 62.76 0.19 74,147 9,276 779 101 9,915.22
Cairo R 1, #2 4-5 46.54 64.42 0.34 21,690 4,668 667 101 9,949.25
Wayne County R 3, #4 3-7 45.64 64.06 0.17 45,165 3,678 468 65 15,275.85
Stephens County R 8, #2 8-2 41.87 61.68 0.49 70,235 6,602 759 59 16,964.73
Griffin R 4, #4 6-4 44.75 64.12 0.10 12,760 3,042 373 37 26,706.41
Grady R 6, #3 6-4 37.77 62.17 0.66 55,720 3,949 182 13 77,857.67
North Hall R 8, #3 6-4 36.46 63.89 0.06 3,678 464 29 1 741,175.84
Northwest Whitfield R 7, #2 7-3 31.94 62.21 0.43 23,319 1,058 30 1 815,821.38
Pickens R 7, #3 8-2 33.56 63.75 0.13 8,267 243 11 1 1,927,390.47
Fayette County R 5, #4 3-7 30.25 64.18 0.02 1,524 96 2 13,338,451.86
North Oconee R 8, #4 5-5 30.28 64.52 0.01 1,018 54 2 16,607,947.10
Columbia R 6, #4 4-6 28.52 63.11 0.02 1,025 65 2 22,456,431.16
Ridgeland R 7, #4 4-6 24.83 62.43 0.04 1,737 29 1 111,189,086.52

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Calhoun R 6, #1 10-0 68.44 49.64 3.56 838,770 726,458 540,847 454,278 1.20
Blessed Trinity R 4, #1 9-0-1 61.88 52.48 2.43 616,254 513,253 232,411 170,788 4.86
Cedar Grove R 4, #2 8-1-1 55.89 49.67 2.34 605,300 471,830 295,150 96,991 9.31
Jackson R 2, #1 8-2 52.81 46.88 2.85 806,808 603,139 350,487 94,548 9.58
Jefferson R 8, #2 9-1 56.95 53.67 1.72 362,280 273,575 86,310 54,629 17.31
Dodge County R 1, #1 10-0 51.80 52.59 1.88 683,597 146,607 56,012 28,755 33.78
Westside (Macon) R 2, #4 7-3 48.68 49.76 1.71 624,867 237,629 107,075 21,599 45.30
Peach County R 2, #2 8-2 53.71 55.27 1.30 161,034 91,743 35,815 20,005 48.99
Spencer R 2, #3 7-3 50.21 51.99 1.90 792,010 197,144 39,425 18,752 52.33
Oconee County R 8, #1 8-2 46.48 49.87 1.64 355,907 215,113 97,138 16,597 59.25
Callaway R 5, #1 9-1 45.14 50.57 1.17 397,778 151,444 61,012 9,389 105.51
Hart County R 8, #4 7-3 44.94 51.65 0.85 280,353 91,305 30,839 4,671 213.09
Elbert County R 8, #3 8-2 47.46 55.67 0.91 233,137 29,432 7,276 2,993 333.12
Adairsville R 6, #2 9-1 41.38 50.57 1.20 188,372 88,009 25,955 2,940 339.18
Southeast Bulloch R 1, #2 7-3 38.57 51.02 0.86 204,470 44,673 10,888 970 1,029.84
Laney R 3, #1 8-2 37.23 50.53 0.55 210,721 45,847 11,902 943 1,059.45
Pierce County R 1, #3 7-3 38.44 53.24 0.18 37,458 15,357 3,751 330 3,025.18
Westminster (Atlanta) R 4, #3 6-4 36.43 51.53 0.54 117,399 20,887 4,140 306 3,271.23
Central (Carrollton) R 5, #2 9-1 39.93 56.06 0.45 81,168 5,734 891 227 4,400.36
Cook R 1, #4 7-3 41.62 57.75 0.12 17,875 6,542 670 192 5,205.92
Sonoraville R 6, #3 7-3 29.85 50.63 0.69 109,153 10,357 1,299 53 19,029.80
Washington County R 3, #2 5-5 30.65 53.83 0.25 95,830 5,077 213 26 38,033.87
East Hall R 7, #2 6-4 25.05 50.57 0.49 55,259 3,746 327 8 119,212.67
Dawson County R 7, #1 7-3 24.80 52.84 0.71 83,046 3,018 87 6 156,505.79
Pepperell R 5, #3 7-3 31.05 57.33 0.06 3,590 783 32 4 243,809.33
Franklin County R 7, #3 6-4 22.46 52.05 0.12 4,688 540 34 1 1,486,452.14
Ringgold R 6, #4 6-4 21.86 54.05 0.41 29,114 608 10 1 1,727,013.02
Cedartown R 5, #4 2-8 18.24 52.96 0.05 1,335 120 5 14,645,012.58
Maynard Jackson R 4, #4 6-4 19.59 56.32 0.03 2,097 20 50,252,973.43
West Hall R 7, #4 5-5 17.81 58.22 0.01 149 5 267,188,503.23
Josey R 3, #3 6-4 10.52 58.11 0.01 48 1 5,952,814,666.43
Butler R 3, #4 4-6 2.25 52.03 0.01 131 2 20,944,452,152.94

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine R 2, #1 10-0 68.71 46.96 3.89 943,326 782,712 679,044 497,826 1.01
Greater Atlanta Christian R 6, #1 9-1 62.77 47.02 3.47 924,738 683,982 602,333 285,760 2.50
Brooks County R 1, #1 8-2 53.28 49.04 2.50 926,753 300,079 222,784 63,303 14.80
Fitzgerald R 1, #2 9-1 56.71 53.13 2.14 832,406 195,602 122,857 58,997 15.95
Jefferson County R 3, #1 8-2 51.52 51.08 2.22 720,438 421,610 92,176 34,026 28.39
Rabun County R 8, #1 9-1 50.70 50.79 2.28 767,203 421,808 87,074 30,700 31.57
Macon County R 4, #1 8-2 44.55 48.98 2.12 729,731 411,473 80,533 12,543 78.72
Screven County R 3, #2 9-1 44.71 51.17 1.76 509,330 278,523 47,529 7,493 132.47
Darlington R 7, #1 10-0 42.57 51.25 1.08 304,672 165,015 27,756 3,713 268.34
Wesleyan R 6, #3 8-2 44.56 55.21 0.95 209,630 78,620 8,265 1,992 501.03
Pace Academy R 6, #4 8-2 41.49 53.31 0.69 175,305 81,301 10,681 1,312 761.17
Lovett R 6, #2 5-5 41.21 56.31 0.86 48,530 12,287 3,425 653 1,529.40
Early County R 1, #3 6-3-1 40.34 55.48 0.63 115,823 31,993 2,367 424 2,358.35
Lamar County R 4, #2 7-3 39.19 54.99 0.67 115,610 30,998 2,239 368 2,715.94
Vidalia R 2, #2 7-3 37.59 54.73 0.76 53,888 10,239 3,519 314 3,183.74
Union County R 8, #2 9-1 33.14 51.60 1.05 206,457 54,618 3,554 216 4,633.33
Heard County R 5, #1 7-3 35.14 54.50 0.95 127,319 7,225 1,464 175 5,701.37
Model R 7, #2 9-1 36.26 55.35 0.43 63,694 14,464 814 107 9,375.22
Swainsboro R 3, #3 5-5 31.66 55.38 0.33 15,449 1,891 410 22 45,820.90
Manchester R 5, #2 7-3 28.75 54.23 0.78 56,920 2,917 533 22 45,923.26
Putnam County R 4, #3 7-3 32.80 57.19 0.10 32,593 1,258 179 18 56,615.47
Pelham R 1, #4 6-4 25.56 52.57 0.15 36,528 4,746 153 5 215,597.10
Chattooga R 7, #3 7-3 29.44 57.54 0.21 4,836 493 53 4 256,219.01
Dade County R 7, #4 6-4 27.11 55.52 0.03 5,925 511 76 3 376,054.72
Metter R 3, #4 6-4 28.29 57.65 0.02 3,308 303 28 2 526,877.04
Bowdon R 5, #3 5-5 22.38 52.40 0.25 27,284 2,815 68 2 658,425.63
Bryan County R 2, #3 5-5 22.85 53.22 0.10 10,692 1,508 38 1 1,124,734.43
Washington-Wilkes R 8, #3 4-6 21.44 54.63 0.30 12,653 330 31 1 1,578,003.28
McIntosh County Academy R 2, #4 4-6 23.81 55.92 0.06 6,238 466 8 2,873,327.08
Greene County R 8, #4 5-5 22.58 57.00 0.20 7,682 121 7 3,719,223.94
Northeast R 4, #4 2-8 15.01 54.68 0.02 3,674 52 3 34,607,280.70
Bremen R 5, #4 4-6 14.62 55.66 0.02 1,364 41 187,252,006.44

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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