Maxwell playoff projections after Week 11
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 100,000 seasons and teams with 10 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.
Class AAAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson | 8-AAAAAA | 10-0 | 96.32 | 94,379 | 75,755 | 50,018 | 33,560 | 1.98 |
| Roswell | 5-AAAAAA | 9-0 | 92.97 | 71,880 | 68,265 | 33,487 | 19,894 | 4.03 |
| Colquitt County | 1-AAAAAA | 9-0 | 91.93 | 74,336 | 71,531 | 41,754 | 19,870 | 4.03 |
| Archer | 8-AAAAAA | 8-1 | 91.79 | 74,332 | 45,619 | 26,489 | 11,865 | 7.43 |
| Mill Creek | 7-AAAAAA | 9-0 | 87.48 | 94,337 | 39,814 | 19,933 | 7,462 | 12.40 |
| Peachtree Ridge | 7-AAAAAA | 7-2 | 84.72 | 91,076 | 28,868 | 12,125 | 3,915 | 24.54 |
| Camden County | 1-AAAAAA | 9-0 | 81.41 | 35,707 | 31,618 | 9,370 | 2,348 | 41.59 |
| McEachern | 4-AAAAAA | 8-1 | 79.96 | 22,260 | 7,968 | 2,953 | 618 | 160.81 |
| Walton | 5-AAAAAA | 8-1 | 75.19 | 16,338 | 13,571 | 2,621 | 371 | 268.54 |
| Norcross | 7-AAAAAA | 7-2 | 69.84 | 55,860 | 5,977 | 560 | 65 | 1,537.46 |
Class AAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northgate | 4-AAAAA | 9-0 | 77.15 | 89,025 | 72,908 | 44,057 | 27,879 | 2.59 |
| Mays | 6-AAAAA | 9-0 | 77.64 | 74,374 | 63,484 | 42,543 | 25,676 | 2.89 |
| Stephenson | 6-AAAAA | 8-1 | 77.37 | 72,287 | 60,280 | 40,588 | 23,691 | 3.22 |
| Northside (Warner Robins) | 2-AAAAA | 9-0 | 71.02 | 32,046 | 21,221 | 12,346 | 5,117 | 18.54 |
| Stockbridge | 4-AAAAA | 9-0 | 66.99 | 67,134 | 37,541 | 13,260 | 4,078 | 23.52 |
| Coffee | 3-AAAAA | 8-1 | 67.47 | 53,340 | 27,992 | 10,655 | 3,411 | 28.32 |
| Allatoona | 5-AAAAA | 8-1 | 66.31 | 63,613 | 19,866 | 9,584 | 2,968 | 32.69 |
| Glynn Academy | 3-AAAAA | 7-2 | 66.24 | 51,711 | 18,952 | 6,602 | 2,264 | 43.17 |
| Creekside | 6-AAAAA | 7-2 | 65.75 | 35,261 | 15,363 | 4,656 | 1,331 | 74.13 |
| Ware County | 3-AAAAA | 7-2 | 65.33 | 15,381 | 9,069 | 3,129 | 1,018 | 97.23 |
| Starr's Mill | 4-AAAAA | 8-1 | 64.56 | 31,369 | 7,628 | 3,016 | 834 | 118.90 |
| Lanier | 8-AAAAA | 9-0 | 61.66 | 24,251 | 10,192 | 2,727 | 583 | 170.53 |
| South Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 7-2 | 57.40 | 40,863 | 6,564 | 1,459 | 253 | 394.26 |
| Jones County | 2-AAAAA | 8-1 | 59.55 | 9,353 | 3,865 | 943 | 192 | 519.83 |
| Houston County | 2-AAAAA | 8-1 | 59.26 | 16,465 | 4,203 | 951 | 183 | 545.45 |
| Carver (Columbus) | 1-AAAAA | 8-1 | 56.09 | 31,844 | 5,237 | 1,114 | 171 | 583.80 |
| East Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 7-2 | 57.06 | 9,139 | 2,639 | 448 | 69 | 1,448.28 |
| Dalton | 7-AAAAA | 7-2 | 53.78 | 13,467 | 2,454 | 403 | 54 | 1,850.85 |
| Drew | 4-AAAAA | 6-3 | 56.80 | 11,323 | 1,416 | 289 | 54 | 1,850.85 |
| Alexander | 5-AAAAA | 7-2 | 54.22 | 8,489 | 2,261 | 297 | 40 | 2,499.00 |
| Woodland (Stockbridge) | 4-AAAAA | 7-2 | 54.99 | 9,359 | 1,079 | 196 | 35 | 2,856.14 |
| Kell | 7-AAAAA | 7-2 | 52.36 | 9,165 | 1,556 | 203 | 28 | 3,570.43 |
| South Effingham | 3-AAAAA | 7-2 | 54.83 | 3,649 | 832 | 148 | 28 | 3,570.43 |
| Carver (Atlanta) | 6-AAAAA | 6-3 | 52.36 | 7,217 | 925 | 118 | 17 | 5,881.35 |
| Warner Robins | 2-AAAAA | 7-2 | 52.22 | 4,327 | 752 | 86 | 12 | 8,332.33 |
Class AAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodward Academy | 5-AAAA | 9-0 | 70.72 | 86,450 | 70,423 | 51,571 | 34,721 | 1.88 |
| Cartersville | 7-AAAA | 9-0 | 67.11 | 84,392 | 65,582 | 43,344 | 22,820 | 3.38 |
| Bainbridge | 1-AAAA | 9-0 | 64.95 | 55,030 | 40,045 | 22,097 | 10,532 | 8.49 |
| Buford | 8-AAAA | 8-1 | 63.98 | 68,065 | 46,873 | 20,584 | 10,343 | 8.67 |
| Thomson | 3-AAAA | 8-1 | 60.20 | 66,837 | 31,241 | 11,275 | 4,624 | 20.63 |
| Mary Persons | 2-AAAA | 9-0 | 60.97 | 61,160 | 21,706 | 10,542 | 4,452 | 21.46 |
| Sandy Creek | 5-AAAA | 7-2 | 61.11 | 43,983 | 26,421 | 10,898 | 4,138 | 23.17 |
| Jonesboro | 4-AAAA | 8-1 | 58.50 | 50,522 | 20,337 | 8,060 | 2,695 | 36.11 |
| St. Pius X | 6-AAAA | 7-2 | 56.07 | 58,016 | 21,090 | 7,307 | 2,037 | 48.09 |
| Locust Grove | 4-AAAA | 9-0 | 57.38 | 41,156 | 16,673 | 5,794 | 1,878 | 52.25 |
| Marist | 6-AAAA | 7-2 | 51.97 | 34,633 | 5,832 | 1,626 | 386 | 258.07 |
| Burke County | 3-AAAA | 7-2 | 52.13 | 29,632 | 7,888 | 1,725 | 367 | 271.48 |
| Liberty County | 3-AAAA | 6-3 | 50.89 | 11,698 | 4,723 | 1,229 | 230 | 433.78 |
| Worth County | 1-AAAA | 6-3 | 53.60 | 8,675 | 3,950 | 823 | 226 | 441.48 |
| Spalding | 4-AAAA | 8-1 | 53.12 | 6,656 | 2,708 | 788 | 192 | 519.83 |
| West Laurens | 2-AAAA | 7-2 | 48.88 | 16,016 | 2,994 | 648 | 114 | 876.19 |
| Carrollton | 5-AAAA | 5-4 | 46.43 | 15,705 | 2,602 | 516 | 67 | 1,491.54 |
| Upson-Lee | 2-AAAA | 7-2 | 47.64 | 9,735 | 2,134 | 314 | 59 | 1,693.92 |
| Eastside | 4-AAAA | 7-2 | 49.05 | 4,042 | 1,214 | 243 | 43 | 2,324.58 |
| Cairo | 1-AAAA | 4-4 | 44.13 | 2,979 | 668 | 92 | 14 | 7,141.86 |
| Eagle's Landing | 4-AAAA | 6-3 | 47.81 | 1,329 | 373 | 75 | 13 | 7,691.31 |
| Thomas County Central | 1-AAAA | 5-4 | 43.98 | 4,777 | 644 | 85 | 12 | 8,332.33 |
| Howard | 2-AAAA | 6-3 | 44.75 | 5,778 | 812 | 94 | 10 | 9,999.00 |
| Wayne County | 3-AAAA | 3-7 | 43.70 | 5,272 | 413 | 63 | 10 | 9,999.00 |
Class AAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calhoun | 6-AAA | 9-0 | 66.58 | 85,155 | 75,148 | 54,465 | 43,804 | 1.28 |
| Blessed Trinity | 4-AAA | 9-0 | 63.52 | 78,828 | 71,147 | 41,672 | 29,730 | 2.36 |
| Jefferson | 8-AAA | 8-1 | 54.55 | 51,298 | 37,420 | 22,117 | 7,372 | 12.56 |
| Jackson | 2-AAA | 7-2 | 50.25 | 77,991 | 55,746 | 27,344 | 6,377 | 14.68 |
| Cedar Grove | 4-AAA | 8-1 | 50.89 | 45,256 | 33,405 | 16,318 | 3,999 | 24.01 |
| Peach County | 2-AAA | 8-2 | 51.22 | 16,054 | 9,729 | 3,752 | 1,666 | 59.02 |
| Dodge County | 1-AAA | 9-0 | 49.26 | 61,249 | 11,232 | 3,917 | 1,654 | 59.46 |
| Elbert County | 8-AAA | 8-1 | 48.50 | 29,911 | 15,046 | 4,658 | 1,285 | 76.82 |
| Westside (Macon) | 2-AAA | 6-3 | 46.12 | 53,794 | 16,468 | 7,118 | 1,257 | 78.55 |
| Spencer | 2-AAA | 6-3 | 46.65 | 71,948 | 16,910 | 3,183 | 1,039 | 95.25 |
| Oconee County | 8-AAA | 7-2 | 41.90 | 26,467 | 10,258 | 3,113 | 374 | 266.38 |
| Hart County | 8-AAA | 7-2 | 43.85 | 24,459 | 7,575 | 2,450 | 372 | 267.82 |
| Central (Carrollton) | 5-AAA | 9-0 | 42.27 | 27,008 | 8,276 | 2,539 | 337 | 295.74 |
| Adairsville | 6-AAA | 8-1 | 40.62 | 21,592 | 10,389 | 2,737 | 290 | 343.83 |
| Callaway | 5-AAA | 8-1 | 40.63 | 19,709 | 4,697 | 1,246 | 170 | 587.24 |
| Laney | 3-AAA | 7-2 | 36.68 | 24,375 | 4,630 | 1,339 | 85 | 1,175.47 |
| Westminster (Atlanta) | 4-AAA | 5-4 | 36.66 | 15,817 | 3,328 | 662 | 60 | 1,665.67 |
| Central (Macon) | 2-AAA | 5-4 | 41.85 | 7,050 | 1,419 | 394 | 54 | 1,850.85 |
| Pierce County | 1-AAA | 6-3 | 36.52 | 6,988 | 1,663 | 325 | 27 | 3,702.70 |
| Cook | 1-AAA | 6-3 | 38.52 | 1,968 | 695 | 117 | 15 | 6,665.67 |
| Southeast Bulloch | 1-AAA | 6-3 | 34.73 | 6,806 | 1,263 | 205 | 12 | 8,332.33 |
Class AA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedictine | 2-AA | 9-0 | 68.27 | 91,948 | 79,292 | 71,114 | 49,653 | 1.01 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | 6-AA | 8-1 | 64.30 | 90,047 | 72,884 | 66,988 | 34,748 | 1.88 |
| Brooks County | 1-AA | 8-2 | 51.01 | 91,976 | 25,844 | 19,528 | 5,005 | 18.98 |
| Fitzgerald | 1-AA | 8-1 | 53.75 | 84,081 | 16,379 | 10,606 | 4,231 | 22.64 |
| Rabun County | 8-AA | 8-1 | 48.49 | 74,006 | 43,721 | 7,889 | 2,291 | 42.65 |
| Jefferson County | 3-AA | 7-2 | 47.90 | 68,855 | 37,956 | 6,493 | 1,842 | 53.29 |
| Darlington | 7-AA | 9-0 | 42.75 | 39,952 | 25,985 | 4,405 | 619 | 160.55 |
| Lamar County | 4-AA | 7-2 | 40.54 | 51,634 | 25,414 | 3,534 | 447 | 222.71 |
| Wesleyan | 6-AA | 8-1 | 42.38 | 22,107 | 9,463 | 2,029 | 335 | 297.51 |
| Screven County | 3-AA | 8-1 | 41.40 | 34,230 | 19,384 | 2,739 | 323 | 308.60 |
| Macon County | 4-AA | 7-2 | 38.92 | 37,993 | 16,564 | 1,967 | 199 | 501.51 |
| Lovett | 6-AA | 5-5 | 40.65 | 13,998 | 6,210 | 904 | 118 | 846.46 |
| Pace Academy | 6-AA | 7-2 | 40.61 | 15,612 | 6,971 | 770 | 106 | 942.40 |
| Vidalia | 2-AA | 6-3 | 34.14 | 5,487 | 1,455 | 241 | 26 | 3,845.15 |
| Early County | 1-AA | 5-3-1 | 38.19 | 9,909 | 3,035 | 183 | 24 | 4,165.67 |
| Model | 7-AA | 9-1 | 36.37 | 10,217 | 2,659 | 154 | 14 | 7,141.86 |
Class A-Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch County | 2-A | 8-1 | 48.97 | 94,358 | 74,978 | 56,662 | 39,529 | 1.53 |
| Turner County | 2-A | 8-1 | 45.34 | 90,009 | 71,029 | 42,281 | 23,533 | 3.25 |
| Charlton County | 2-A | 6-2 | 41.48 | 86,072 | 46,185 | 23,987 | 10,705 | 8.34 |
| Marion County | 4-A | 8-1 | 38.48 | 90,346 | 57,153 | 26,834 | 9,307 | 9.74 |
| Irwin County | 2-A | 6-2-1 | 40.33 | 86,587 | 43,557 | 18,829 | 8,329 | 11.01 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 3-A | 8-1 | 36.96 | 80,375 | 36,104 | 13,953 | 4,659 | 20.46 |
| Commerce | 8-A | 6-3 | 33.23 | 65,600 | 28,073 | 8,418 | 2,063 | 47.47 |
| Lincoln County | 7-A | 8-1 | 34.42 | 36,931 | 13,460 | 4,568 | 1,243 | 79.45 |
| Trion | 6-A | 6-3 | 29.43 | 21,815 | 9,887 | 2,272 | 407 | 244.70 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 6-A | 6-3 | 24.07 | 21,916 | 5,110 | 816 | 98 | 1,019.41 |
| Wilkinson County | 7-A | 5-4 | 19.90 | 31,840 | 4,000 | 402 | 39 | 2,563.10 |
| Telfair County | 2-A | 5-4 | 23.64 | 9,532 | 2,123 | 288 | 37 | 2,701.70 |
| Dooly County | 4-A | 6-3 | 20.94 | 14,778 | 2,628 | 282 | 32 | 3,124.00 |
| Johnson County | 3-A | 5-4 | 18.18 | 19,539 | 2,185 | 215 | 12 | 8,332.33 |
Class A-Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Record | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Avenue Christian | 8-A | 9-0 | 62.51 | 98,780 | 93,214 | 74,038 | 64,827 | 0.54 |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 5-A | 6-3 | 53.42 | 94,980 | 81,679 | 23,683 | 17,218 | 4.81 |
| Aquinas | 7-A | 8-1 | 46.01 | 91,135 | 64,806 | 43,294 | 9,380 | 9.66 |
| Mount Paran Christian | 6-A | 9-0 | 43.95 | 88,910 | 58,453 | 31,832 | 5,935 | 15.85 |
| Savannah Christian | 3-A | 8-1 | 35.99 | 70,297 | 21,482 | 6,203 | 700 | 141.86 |
| Athens Academy | 8-A | 8-1 | 37.17 | 55,981 | 10,987 | 3,911 | 507 | 196.24 |
| Calvary Day | 3-A | 8-1 | 34.16 | 73,364 | 19,353 | 4,926 | 439 | 226.79 |
| Landmark Christian | 5-A | 6-3 | 33.90 | 64,220 | 16,037 | 4,788 | 393 | 253.45 |
| Stratford Academy | 7-A | 7-2 | 35.00 | 50,655 | 13,836 | 3,501 | 372 | 267.82 |
| Pinecrest Academy | 6-A | 8-1 | 31.07 | 53,094 | 12,106 | 2,913 | 205 | 486.80 |
| Christian Heritage | 6-A | 5-4 | 27.05 | 11,856 | 2,502 | 339 | 16 | 6,249.00 |
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