Maxwell playoff projections after week two
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons and teams with 100 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.
Class AAAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colquitt County | 1-AAAAAA | 101.27 | 668,414 | 499,579 | 1.00 |
| Grayson | 8-AAAAAA | 88.30 | 200,708 | 135,438 | 6.38 |
| North Gwinnett | 7-AAAAAA | 84.63 | 153,677 | 107,531 | 8.30 |
| Norcross | 7-AAAAAA | 84.53 | 154,283 | 107,324 | 8.32 |
| Mill Creek | 7-AAAAAA | 84.10 | 145,069 | 102,524 | 8.75 |
| McEachern | 4-AAAAAA | 89.61 | 165,540 | 98,915 | 9.11 |
| Archer | 8-AAAAAA | 87.37 | 156,808 | 57,225 | 16.47 |
| Tucker | 2-AAAAAA | 78.28 | 51,468 | 41,442 | 23.13 |
| Dacula | 8-AAAAAA | 82.84 | 61,243 | 40,780 | 23.52 |
| Valdosta | 1-AAAAAA | 78.31 | 27,375 | 22,532 | 43.38 |
| Peachtree Ridge | 7-AAAAAA | 76.87 | 24,400 | 19,853 | 49.37 |
| Lassiter | 5-AAAAAA | 78.20 | 27,245 | 19,712 | 49.73 |
| Lovejoy | 2-AAAAAA | 75.27 | 24,400 | 17,175 | 57.22 |
| Walton | 5-AAAAAA | 76.51 | 16,559 | 13,846 | 71.22 |
| Etowah | 5-AAAAAA | 76.66 | 17,817 | 12,419 | 79.52 |
| Roswell | 5-AAAAAA | 75.03 | 11,352 | 9,663 | 102.49 |
| Hillgrove | 4-AAAAAA | 74.33 | 10,625 | 7,568 | 131.14 |
| North Cobb | 4-AAAAAA | 73.34 | 7,733 | 6,591 | 150.72 |
| Tift County | 1-AAAAAA | 74.04 | 7,110 | 6,070 | 163.74 |
| Lee County | 1-AAAAAA | 74.10 | 6,223 | 4,554 | 218.59 |
| Westlake | 3-AAAAAA | 68.06 | 4,787 | 4,411 | 225.71 |
| Camden County | 1-AAAAAA | 77.97 | 22,119 | 4,196 | 237.32 |
| Alpharetta | 6-AAAAAA | 76.22 | 16,992 | 4,085 | 243.80 |
| Lowndes | 1-AAAAAA | 72.75 | 4,036 | 3,007 | 331.56 |
| Milton | 5-AAAAAA | 72.05 | 2,997 | 2,500 | 399.00 |
| Hughes | 3-AAAAAA | 67.10 | 2,963 | 2,121 | 470.48 |
| Newton | 2-AAAAAA | 66.24 | 1,787 | 1,441 | 692.96 |
| East Coweta | 3-AAAAAA | 64.14 | 1,021 | 683 | 1,463.13 |
| Newnan | 3-AAAAAA | 62.65 | 594 | 522 | 1,914.71 |
| Harrison | 4-AAAAAA | 66.24 | 633 | 449 | 2,226.17 |
| Central Gwinnett | 8-AAAAAA | 71.28 | 2,156 | 329 | 3,038.51 |
| Parkview | 8-AAAAAA | 65.63 | 158 | 146 | 6,848.32 |
| Collins Hill | 7-AAAAAA | 67.65 | 1,163 | 121 | 8,263.46 |
| West Forsyth | 6-AAAAAA | 58.02 | 107 | 103 | 9,707.74 |
Class AAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northside (Warner Robins) | 2-AAAAA | 81.78 | 466,778 | 198,440 | 4.04 |
| Creekside | 6-AAAAA | 76.89 | 248,824 | 128,720 | 6.77 |
| Ware County | 3-AAAAA | 75.20 | 204,058 | 97,256 | 9.28 |
| Stockbridge | 4-AAAAA | 71.11 | 159,209 | 91,816 | 9.89 |
| Coffee | 3-AAAAA | 73.23 | 152,494 | 68,510 | 13.60 |
| East Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 70.00 | 115,124 | 52,143 | 18.18 |
| Mays | 6-AAAAA | 72.15 | 98,702 | 42,088 | 22.76 |
| Gainesville | 8-AAAAA | 69.45 | 86,789 | 40,775 | 23.52 |
| Stephenson | 6-AAAAA | 67.82 | 56,422 | 35,006 | 27.57 |
| Warner Robins | 2-AAAAA | 67.32 | 42,159 | 29,066 | 33.40 |
| Kell | 7-AAAAA | 69.22 | 69,850 | 28,471 | 34.12 |
| South Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 66.13 | 45,414 | 28,403 | 34.21 |
| Allatoona | 5-AAAAA | 68.96 | 70,995 | 25,071 | 38.89 |
| Glynn Academy | 3-AAAAA | 67.99 | 57,299 | 23,121 | 42.25 |
| Houston County | 2-AAAAA | 65.00 | 21,140 | 8,075 | 122.84 |
| Dalton | 7-AAAAA | 63.66 | 18,731 | 6,689 | 148.50 |
| Carver (Columbus) | 1-AAAAA | 62.71 | 25,746 | 6,300 | 157.73 |
| LaGrange | 1-AAAAA | 58.29 | 7,726 | 3,141 | 317.37 |
| Lanier | 8-AAAAA | 58.85 | 6,176 | 2,519 | 395.98 |
| Alexander | 5-AAAAA | 61.75 | 10,166 | 2,302 | 433.40 |
| Starr's Mill | 4-AAAAA | 60.25 | 8,278 | 1,711 | 583.45 |
| Mundy's Mill | 4-AAAAA | 60.01 | 7,029 | 1,426 | 700.26 |
| Jones County | 2-AAAAA | 59.26 | 3,583 | 1,320 | 756.58 |
| Northgate | 4-AAAAA | 56.64 | 2,648 | 1,223 | 816.66 |
| New Manchester | 5-AAAAA | 57.90 | 2,608 | 1,199 | 833.03 |
| Harris County | 1-AAAAA | 54.96 | 2,878 | 1,132 | 882.39 |
| M. L. King | 6-AAAAA | 58.90 | 3,278 | 606 | 1,649.17 |
| Rome | 7-AAAAA | 54.12 | 540 | 390 | 2,563.10 |
| Drew | 4-AAAAA | 55.30 | 1,105 | 366 | 2,731.24 |
| Hiram | 5-AAAAA | 54.83 | 595 | 253 | 3,951.57 |
| Sequoyah | 7-AAAAA | 53.11 | 302 | 227 | 4,404.29 |
| Flowery Branch | 8-AAAAA | 52.68 | 584 | 175 | 5,713.29 |
| Sprayberry | 7-AAAAA | 52.49 | 222 | 161 | 6,210.18 |
| Salem | 8-AAAAA | 50.09 | 197 | 142 | 7,041.25 |
| Lakeside (Evans) | 2-AAAAA | 53.71 | 260 | 110 | 9,089.91 |
Class AAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | 8-AAAA | 96.53 | 889,365 | 733,429 | 0.36 |
| Marist | 6-AAAA | 74.86 | 290,917 | 240,627 | 3.16 |
| Cartersville | 7-AAAA | 71.23 | 250,773 | 220,329 | 3.54 |
| Griffin | 4-AAAA | 68.84 | 135,751 | 118,732 | 7.42 |
| Sandy Creek | 5-AAAA | 68.48 | 83,783 | 70,865 | 13.11 |
| Woodward Academy | 5-AAAA | 68.70 | 77,740 | 63,147 | 14.84 |
| Thomson | 3-AAAA | 65.82 | 35,824 | 28,893 | 33.61 |
| St. Pius X | 6-AAAA | 69.06 | 124,393 | 18,487 | 53.09 |
| West Laurens | 2-AAAA | 63.10 | 19,306 | 16,059 | 61.27 |
| Burke County | 3-AAAA | 59.35 | 13,292 | 10,964 | 90.21 |
| Jonesboro | 4-AAAA | 59.58 | 12,023 | 10,383 | 95.31 |
| Cairo | 1-AAAA | 59.46 | 11,353 | 9,515 | 104.10 |
| Mary Persons | 2-AAAA | 59.21 | 10,480 | 9,344 | 106.02 |
| Wayne County | 3-AAAA | 57.22 | 9,593 | 8,948 | 110.76 |
| Whitewater | 5-AAAA | 56.83 | 7,407 | 6,875 | 144.45 |
| North Oconee | 8-AAAA | 55.08 | 5,239 | 4,841 | 205.57 |
| Carrollton | 5-AAAA | 54.23 | 2,849 | 2,414 | 413.25 |
| Stephens County | 8-AAAA | 51.91 | 1,524 | 1,440 | 693.44 |
| Thomas County Central | 1-AAAA | 58.34 | 9,787 | 785 | 1,272.89 |
| Northwest Whitfield | 7-AAAA | 50.21 | 832 | 746 | 1,339.48 |
| Grady | 6-AAAA | 52.35 | 934 | 736 | 1,357.70 |
| Pickens | 7-AAAA | 49.17 | 711 | 651 | 1,535.10 |
| Westover | 1-AAAA | 49.62 | 388 | 373 | 2,679.97 |
| Veterans | 2-AAAA | 47.81 | 246 | 231 | 4,328.00 |
| Bainbridge | 1-AAAA | 54.11 | 3,015 | 185 | 5,404.41 |
| Gilmer | 7-AAAA | 46.29 | 214 | 173 | 5,779.35 |
| Eastside | 4-AAAA | 47.64 | 190 | 154 | 6,492.51 |
| Columbia | 6-AAAA | 47.66 | 169 | 142 | 7,041.25 |
| Monroe | 1-AAAA | 47.61 | 131 | 119 | 8,402.36 |
| White County | 8-AAAA | 45.75 | 111 | 107 | 9,344.79 |
| Worth County | 1-AAAA | 46.18 | 107 | 105 | 9,522.81 |
Class AAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calhoun | 6-AAA | 81.28 | 686,431 | 452,692 | 1.21 |
| Washington County | 3-AAA | 70.64 | 400,953 | 271,181 | 2.69 |
| Blessed Trinity | 4-AAA | 76.38 | 368,270 | 204,300 | 3.89 |
| Westminster (Atlanta) | 4-AAA | 66.94 | 151,985 | 110,088 | 8.08 |
| Jefferson | 8-AAA | 66.62 | 118,723 | 81,273 | 11.30 |
| Cedar Grove | 4-AAA | 62.64 | 67,294 | 50,074 | 18.97 |
| Peach County | 2-AAA | 56.51 | 37,896 | 31,004 | 31.25 |
| Hart County | 8-AAA | 60.72 | 41,826 | 28,253 | 34.39 |
| Elbert County | 8-AAA | 59.41 | 29,041 | 19,161 | 51.19 |
| Central (Carrollton) | 5-AAA | 57.57 | 34,789 | 4,764 | 208.91 |
| Westside (Macon) | 2-AAA | 55.84 | 32,472 | 3,962 | 251.40 |
| Dodge County | 1-AAA | 50.89 | 5,318 | 3,795 | 262.50 |
| Cook | 1-AAA | 54.22 | 5,820 | 3,750 | 265.67 |
| Callaway | 5-AAA | 50.46 | 4,136 | 3,028 | 329.25 |
| West Hall | 7-AAA | 44.53 | 2,429 | 2,075 | 480.93 |
| Pierce County | 1-AAA | 51.23 | 2,652 | 1,871 | 533.47 |
| Laney | 3-AAA | 45.39 | 2,086 | 1,329 | 751.45 |
| Ringgold | 6-AAA | 42.24 | 913 | 823 | 1,214.07 |
| Jackson | 2-AAA | 42.09 | 742 | 539 | 1,854.29 |
| Adairsville | 6-AAA | 47.50 | 4,120 | 251 | 3,983.06 |
| Appling County | 1-AAA | 47.49 | 1,719 | 160 | 6,249.00 |
Class AA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedictine | 2-AA | 76.04 | 722,447 | 519,808 | 0.92 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | 6-AA | 72.47 | 564,953 | 338,980 | 1.95 |
| Fitzgerald | 1-AA | 63.43 | 265,761 | 175,186 | 4.71 |
| Vidalia | 2-AA | 56.30 | 86,865 | 69,001 | 13.49 |
| Lovett | 6-AA | 55.59 | 78,689 | 61,457 | 15.27 |
| Pace Academy | 6-AA | 53.56 | 57,082 | 46,105 | 20.69 |
| Thomasville | 1-AA | 50.72 | 36,943 | 30,564 | 31.72 |
| Lamar County | 4-AA | 47.07 | 26,862 | 22,353 | 43.74 |
| Brooks County | 1-AA | 50.54 | 32,574 | 15,297 | 64.37 |
| Macon County | 4-AA | 46.48 | 17,356 | 14,802 | 66.56 |
| Jefferson County | 3-AA | 45.33 | 14,044 | 11,793 | 83.80 |
| Dublin | 3-AA | 47.57 | 23,995 | 10,856 | 91.11 |
| Rabun County | 8-AA | 42.79 | 11,520 | 10,169 | 97.34 |
| Darlington | 7-AA | 44.22 | 13,945 | 8,994 | 110.19 |
| Heard County | 5-AA | 43.92 | 9,412 | 8,037 | 123.42 |
| Wesleyan | 6-AA | 44.00 | 7,114 | 6,452 | 153.99 |
| Bleckley County | 4-AA | 43.42 | 8,635 | 4,435 | 224.48 |
| Bowdon | 5-AA | 44.04 | 9,139 | 3,875 | 257.06 |
| Washington-Wilkes | 8-AA | 37.69 | 2,859 | 2,685 | 371.44 |
| Metter | 3-AA | 38.99 | 2,175 | 1,945 | 513.14 |
| Early County | 1-AA | 41.38 | 2,721 | 1,418 | 704.22 |
| Model | 7-AA | 36.82 | 1,243 | 1,123 | 889.47 |
| Seminole County | 1-AA | 38.16 | 794 | 717 | 1,393.70 |
| Swainsboro | 3-AA | 35.84 | 487 | 440 | 2,271.73 |
| Screven County | 3-AA | 35.08 | 388 | 359 | 2,784.52 |
Class A-Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch County | 2-A | 48.91 | 304,434 | 185,080 | 4.40 |
| Charlton County | 2-A | 46.59 | 268,751 | 147,311 | 5.79 |
| Irwin County | 2-A | 46.58 | 278,682 | 134,854 | 6.42 |
| Lincoln County | 7-A | 45.34 | 265,031 | 130,604 | 6.66 |
| Dooly County | 4-A | 45.43 | 151,440 | 77,717 | 11.87 |
| Commerce | 8-A | 38.38 | 155,963 | 75,504 | 12.24 |
| Marion County | 4-A | 52.47 | 219,691 | 74,448 | 12.43 |
| Hawkinsville | 4-A | 40.16 | 109,415 | 54,917 | 17.21 |
| Mitchell County | 1-A | 27.85 | 58,305 | 49,800 | 19.08 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 3-A | 34.23 | 53,841 | 27,352 | 35.56 |
| Turner County | 2-A | 28.15 | 20,851 | 17,704 | 55.48 |
| Trion | 6-A | 29.61 | 20,849 | 17,546 | 55.99 |
| Johnson County | 3-A | 30.72 | 19,618 | 12,616 | 78.26 |
| Telfair County | 2-A | 24.77 | 8,872 | 7,858 | 126.26 |
| Wilcox County | 2-A | 27.64 | 8,937 | 7,697 | 128.92 |
| Schley County | 4-A | 24.46 | 7,535 | 6,707 | 148.10 |
| Greenville | 4-A | 27.63 | 10,536 | 5,159 | 192.84 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 6-A | 31.61 | 24,538 | 4,461 | 223.16 |
| Randolph-Clay | 1-A | 14.69 | 1,835 | 1,725 | 578.71 |
| Claxton | 3-A | 27.68 | 5,816 | 1,463 | 682.53 |
| Treutlen | 3-A | 17.90 | 1,286 | 1,208 | 826.81 |
| Terrell County | 1-A | 13.92 | 1,073 | 1,019 | 980.35 |
| Miller County | 1-A | 13.33 | 714 | 676 | 1,478.29 |
| Hancock Central | 7-A | 21.31 | 1,181 | 569 | 1,756.47 |
| Wilkinson County | 7-A | 21.14 | 209 | 192 | 5,207.33 |
| Jenkins County | 3-A | 15.68 | 149 | 102 | 9,802.92 |
Class A-Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 5-A | 59.75 | 497,768 | 358,232 | 1.79 |
| Mount Paran Christian | 6-A | 56.08 | 435,757 | 199,843 | 4.00 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | 8-A | 50.96 | 308,248 | 173,154 | 4.78 |
| Calvary Day | 3-A | 49.75 | 295,158 | 170,435 | 4.87 |
| Landmark Christian | 5-A | 47.30 | 157,426 | 88,973 | 10.24 |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | 6-A | 43.38 | 74,625 | 55,224 | 17.11 |
| Aquinas | 7-A | 43.49 | 70,375 | 41,586 | 23.05 |
| Tattnall Square | 7-A | 41.53 | 63,051 | 38,486 | 24.98 |
| Savannah Christian | 3-A | 39.91 | 35,758 | 28,330 | 34.30 |
| Stratford Academy | 7-A | 38.10 | 21,019 | 17,156 | 57.29 |
| Pacelli | 4-A | 37.17 | 19,248 | 8,193 | 121.06 |
| Our Lady of Mercy | 5-A | 33.55 | 6,755 | 5,838 | 170.29 |
| Pinecrest Academy | 6-A | 32.64 | 3,729 | 3,246 | 307.07 |
| Athens Academy | 8-A | 29.77 | 4,486 | 2,825 | 352.98 |
| Brookstone | 4-A | 32.72 | 4,050 | 2,528 | 394.57 |
| First Presbyterian | 7-A | 30.67 | 1,203 | 756 | 1,321.75 |
| Athens Christian | 8-A | 24.17 | 533 | 348 | 2,872.56 |
| Christian Heritage | 6-A | 28.69 | 466 | 290 | 3,447.28 |
| St. Francis | 6-A | 22.79 | 109 | 103 | 9,707.74 |
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