Maxwell playoff projections after week three
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons and teams with 100 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.
Class AAAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colquitt County | 1-AAAAAA | 100.35 | 605,186 | 497,050 | 1.01 |
| McEachern | 4-AAAAAA | 94.36 | 259,593 | 170,713 | 4.86 |
| Mill Creek | 7-AAAAAA | 87.45 | 210,458 | 79,943 | 11.51 |
| Grayson | 8-AAAAAA | 88.29 | 185,731 | 69,028 | 13.49 |
| Archer | 8-AAAAAA | 86.95 | 146,003 | 51,003 | 18.61 |
| Norcross | 7-AAAAAA | 83.98 | 148,652 | 42,245 | 22.67 |
| North Gwinnett | 7-AAAAAA | 83.66 | 143,853 | 39,294 | 24.45 |
| Tucker | 2-AAAAAA | 79.32 | 58,470 | 11,338 | 87.20 |
| Walton | 5-AAAAAA | 80.02 | 54,659 | 11,167 | 88.55 |
| Camden County | 1-AAAAAA | 79.46 | 44,815 | 8,219 | 120.67 |
| Peachtree Ridge | 7-AAAAAA | 75.67 | 25,387 | 4,261 | 233.69 |
| Valdosta | 1-AAAAAA | 77.04 | 20,846 | 3,259 | 305.84 |
| Etowah | 5-AAAAAA | 76.23 | 16,718 | 2,668 | 373.81 |
| Dacula | 8-AAAAAA | 75.75 | 11,108 | 1,865 | 535.19 |
| Alpharetta | 6-AAAAAA | 73.64 | 8,011 | 1,587 | 629.12 |
| Roswell | 5-AAAAAA | 74.07 | 7,917 | 1,070 | 933.58 |
| Tift County | 1-AAAAAA | 73.80 | 8,953 | 1,052 | 949.57 |
| Westlake | 3-AAAAAA | 71.22 | 8,829 | 897 | 1,113.83 |
| Lassiter | 5-AAAAAA | 73.59 | 4,527 | 601 | 1,662.89 |
| North Cobb | 4-AAAAAA | 71.18 | 5,364 | 519 | 1,925.78 |
| Hillgrove | 4-AAAAAA | 70.77 | 4,813 | 432 | 2,313.81 |
| Lee County | 1-AAAAAA | 71.84 | 3,636 | 379 | 2,637.52 |
| East Coweta | 3-AAAAAA | 68.38 | 3,493 | 316 | 3,163.56 |
| Milton | 5-AAAAAA | 70.93 | 2,333 | 267 | 3,744.32 |
| Lovejoy | 2-AAAAAA | 67.28 | 1,991 | 199 | 5,024.13 |
| Newnan | 3-AAAAAA | 66.86 | 2,228 | 178 | 5,616.98 |
| Lowndes | 1-AAAAAA | 70.16 | 1,874 | 163 | 6,133.97 |
Class AAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northside (Warner Robins) | 2-AAAAA | 79.81 | 397,523 | 276,904 | 2.61 |
| Creekside | 6-Div B-AAAAA | 77.95 | 304,934 | 189,992 | 4.26 |
| Ware County | 3-AAAAA | 74.12 | 183,304 | 95,205 | 9.50 |
| Mays | 6-Div B-AAAAA | 73.55 | 159,034 | 79,628 | 11.56 |
| Coffee | 3-AAAAA | 72.67 | 149,011 | 70,328 | 13.22 |
| Stockbridge | 4-Div B-AAAAA | 70.36 | 123,140 | 51,415 | 18.45 |
| East Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 69.37 | 107,042 | 43,436 | 22.02 |
| Allatoona | 5-AAAAA | 70.21 | 100,889 | 41,813 | 22.92 |
| Gainesville | 8-AAAAA | 69.41 | 79,219 | 32,534 | 29.74 |
| Kell | 7-Div B-AAAAA | 68.51 | 65,084 | 23,858 | 40.91 |
| Stephenson | 6-Div A-AAAAA | 67.45 | 60,787 | 20,900 | 46.85 |
| South Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 66.49 | 53,912 | 17,917 | 54.81 |
| Glynn Academy | 3-AAAAA | 66.51 | 47,472 | 15,088 | 65.28 |
| Warner Robins | 2-AAAAA | 64.93 | 27,674 | 7,855 | 126.31 |
| Mundy's Mill | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 63.08 | 23,383 | 6,351 | 156.46 |
| Alexander | 5-AAAAA | 63.29 | 21,196 | 5,564 | 178.73 |
| Houston County | 2-AAAAA | 63.67 | 19,709 | 5,281 | 188.36 |
| Dalton | 7-Div A-AAAAA | 62.43 | 13,738 | 3,457 | 288.27 |
| Dutchtown | 4-Div B-AAAAA | 61.14 | 13,030 | 2,922 | 341.23 |
| Lanier | 8-AAAAA | 60.95 | 12,652 | 2,885 | 345.62 |
| New Manchester | 5-AAAAA | 60.27 | 8,393 | 1,882 | 530.35 |
| Carver (Columbus) | 1-AAAAA | 59.10 | 9,508 | 1,807 | 552.40 |
| Starr's Mill | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 57.89 | 4,242 | 812 | 1,230.53 |
| Northgate | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 57.22 | 4,078 | 689 | 1,450.38 |
| Jones County | 2-AAAAA | 57.74 | 2,735 | 483 | 2,069.39 |
| Drew | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 54.83 | 1,403 | 203 | 4,925.11 |
| M. L. King | 6-Div A-AAAAA | 54.47 | 979 | 136 | 7,351.94 |
Class AAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | 8-AAAA | 88.46 | 772,525 | 663,954 | 0.51 |
| Cartersville | 7-AAAA | 74.36 | 373,466 | 116,352 | 7.59 |
| Woodward Academy | 5-AAAA | 71.45 | 170,840 | 59,666 | 15.76 |
| Marist | 6-AAAA | 71.38 | 198,514 | 59,096 | 15.92 |
| Sandy Creek | 5-AAAA | 69.56 | 142,569 | 39,799 | 24.13 |
| St. Pius X | 6-AAAA | 65.12 | 61,245 | 13,755 | 71.70 |
| Mary Persons | 2-AAAA | 64.87 | 47,045 | 11,012 | 89.81 |
| West Laurens | 2-AAAA | 64.20 | 42,195 | 9,417 | 105.19 |
| Burke County | 3-AAAA | 62.64 | 33,579 | 6,607 | 150.35 |
| Jonesboro | 4-Div B-AAAA | 61.62 | 29,504 | 4,518 | 220.34 |
| Griffin | 4-Div B-AAAA | 61.62 | 28,522 | 4,461 | 223.16 |
| Thomson | 3-AAAA | 59.83 | 19,833 | 2,972 | 335.47 |
| Bainbridge | 1-Div B-AAAA | 58.87 | 14,123 | 1,899 | 525.59 |
| Thomas County Central | 1-Div A-AAAA | 57.99 | 10,235 | 1,249 | 799.64 |
| Wayne County | 3-AAAA | 57.06 | 11,754 | 1,242 | 804.15 |
| Carrollton | 5-AAAA | 56.56 | 10,524 | 1,044 | 956.85 |
| Grady | 6-AAAA | 56.30 | 7,204 | 869 | 1,149.75 |
| Whitewater | 5-AAAA | 55.86 | 8,536 | 792 | 1,261.63 |
| North Oconee | 8-AAAA | 55.12 | 7,498 | 637 | 1,568.86 |
| Cairo | 1-Div A-AAAA | 53.01 | 2,268 | 182 | 5,493.51 |
| Northwest Whitfield | 7-AAAA | 50.81 | 1,425 | 121 | 8,263.46 |
Class AAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calhoun | 6-AAA | 78.21 | 609,581 | 483,928 | 1.07 |
| Blessed Trinity | 4-Div B-AAA | 74.83 | 412,315 | 277,693 | 2.60 |
| Jefferson | 8-AAA | 67.35 | 241,084 | 90,325 | 10.07 |
| Cedar Grove | 4-Div A-AAA | 61.98 | 141,141 | 34,429 | 28.05 |
| Westside (Macon) | 2-AAA | 59.75 | 140,397 | 28,615 | 33.95 |
| Washington County | 3-AAA | 59.52 | 122,888 | 26,347 | 36.95 |
| Elbert County | 8-AAA | 59.38 | 63,204 | 15,627 | 62.99 |
| Hart County | 8-AAA | 58.01 | 49,643 | 11,347 | 87.13 |
| Westminster (Atlanta) | 4-Div B-AAA | 57.29 | 57,362 | 9,954 | 99.46 |
| Peach County | 2-AAA | 54.62 | 45,697 | 7,005 | 141.76 |
| Laney | 3-AAA | 53.33 | 31,650 | 5,017 | 198.32 |
| Central (Carrollton) | 5-AAA | 54.48 | 35,339 | 4,863 | 204.63 |
| Cook | 1-Div A-AAA | 53.10 | 13,207 | 1,876 | 532.05 |
| Dodge County | 1-Div A-AAA | 50.37 | 8,431 | 931 | 1,073.11 |
| Adairsville | 6-AAA | 46.65 | 9,251 | 625 | 1,599.00 |
| Callaway | 5-AAA | 48.39 | 5,947 | 567 | 1,762.67 |
| West Hall | 7-AAA | 45.67 | 3,155 | 315 | 3,173.60 |
| Ringgold | 6-AAA | 42.72 | 3,251 | 188 | 5,318.15 |
| Decatur | 4-Div B-AAA | 44.99 | 1,730 | 126 | 7,935.51 |
Class AA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedictine | 2-AA | 76.42 | 714,537 | 516,226 | 0.94 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | 6-AA | 72.83 | 564,786 | 311,681 | 2.21 |
| Fitzgerald | 1-AA | 63.74 | 269,939 | 95,333 | 9.49 |
| Lovett | 6-AA | 54.10 | 67,218 | 14,465 | 68.13 |
| Pace Academy | 6-AA | 53.92 | 63,587 | 12,676 | 77.89 |
| Macon County | 4-AA | 52.81 | 65,957 | 12,415 | 79.55 |
| Vidalia | 2-AA | 54.66 | 66,526 | 12,217 | 80.85 |
| Thomasville | 1-AA | 50.20 | 35,377 | 5,786 | 171.83 |
| Dublin | 3-AA | 49.83 | 31,370 | 5,034 | 197.65 |
| Brooks County | 1-AA | 49.00 | 27,252 | 4,092 | 243.38 |
| Rabun County | 8-AA | 46.89 | 22,597 | 3,126 | 318.90 |
| Wesleyan | 6-AA | 46.49 | 15,225 | 1,834 | 544.26 |
| Lamar County | 4-AA | 45.22 | 13,309 | 1,497 | 667.00 |
| Jefferson County | 3-AA | 44.29 | 8,206 | 858 | 1,164.50 |
| Bacon County | 2-AA | 43.13 | 6,990 | 657 | 1,521.07 |
| Darlington | 7-AA | 42.40 | 5,384 | 465 | 2,149.54 |
| Heard County | 5-AA | 41.47 | 5,023 | 448 | 2,231.14 |
| Bleckley County | 4-AA | 41.88 | 5,089 | 429 | 2,330.00 |
| Early County | 1-AA | 42.10 | 4,589 | 402 | 2,486.56 |
| Screven County | 3-AA | 40.58 | 2,395 | 160 | 6,249.00 |
Class A-Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinch County | 2-A | 48.57 | 319,704 | 217,636 | 3.59 |
| Marion County | 4-A | 51.79 | 206,731 | 155,238 | 5.44 |
| Irwin County | 2-A | 45.31 | 241,084 | 138,910 | 6.20 |
| Charlton County | 2-A | 46.03 | 218,535 | 128,999 | 6.75 |
| Lincoln County | 7-Div B-A | 41.03 | 168,403 | 74,154 | 12.49 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 3-Div B-A | 39.52 | 169,787 | 67,933 | 13.72 |
| Commerce | 8-A | 39.15 | 170,854 | 66,102 | 14.13 |
| Hawkinsville | 4-A | 39.16 | 122,726 | 49,897 | 19.04 |
| Turner County | 2-A | 37.46 | 114,023 | 40,844 | 23.48 |
| Dooly County | 4-A | 35.43 | 74,348 | 23,191 | 42.12 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 6-Div A-A | 32.32 | 45,658 | 11,327 | 87.28 |
| Johnson County | 3-Div B-A | 30.98 | 30,321 | 6,835 | 145.31 |
| Trion | 6-Div A-A | 29.54 | 31,588 | 6,426 | 154.62 |
| Greenville | 4-A | 27.23 | 23,160 | 3,905 | 255.08 |
| Mitchell County | 1-A | 23.89 | 24,169 | 3,130 | 318.49 |
| Claxton | 3-Div A-A | 28.06 | 11,698 | 2,111 | 472.71 |
| Wilkinson County | 7-Div A-A | 27.52 | 10,165 | 1,724 | 579.05 |
| Terrell County | 1-A | 19.04 | 6,139 | 483 | 2,069.39 |
| Telfair County | 2-A | 23.00 | 4,007 | 474 | 2,108.70 |
| Wilcox County | 2-A | 23.78 | 3,201 | 428 | 2,335.45 |
| Treutlen | 3-Div B-A | 18.25 | 2,235 | 182 | 5,493.51 |
Class A-Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 5-A | 56.95 | 473,681 | 328,712 | 2.04 |
| Mount Paran Christian | 6-Div A-A | 54.79 | 483,778 | 299,596 | 2.34 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | 8-A | 49.19 | 296,332 | 138,421 | 6.22 |
| Calvary Day | 3-Div A-A | 47.34 | 249,768 | 98,842 | 9.12 |
| Landmark Christian | 5-A | 43.74 | 128,372 | 41,938 | 22.84 |
| Aquinas | 7-Div B-A | 43.59 | 117,412 | 37,068 | 25.98 |
| Pacelli | 4-A | 40.10 | 78,943 | 19,768 | 49.59 |
| Savannah Christian | 3-Div A-A | 39.50 | 53,174 | 12,865 | 76.73 |
| Tattnall Square | 7-Div A-A | 38.64 | 53,445 | 12,126 | 81.47 |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | 6-Div B-A | 36.84 | 26,368 | 5,397 | 184.29 |
| Stratford Academy | 7-Div A-A | 34.20 | 12,312 | 2,057 | 485.14 |
| Our Lady of Mercy | 5-A | 31.98 | 10,019 | 1,363 | 732.68 |
| Pinecrest Academy | 6-Div B-A | 31.39 | 7,028 | 959 | 1,041.75 |
| First Presbyterian | 7-Div A-A | 30.20 | 3,251 | 406 | 2,462.05 |
| Athens Academy | 8-A | 27.13 | 4,054 | 335 | 2,984.07 |
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