Maxwell playoff projections after week one
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons and teams with 100 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.
Class AAAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colquitt County | 1-AAAAAA | 100.88 | 664,860 | 565,104 | 0.77 |
| McEachern | 4-AAAAAA | 90.14 | 183,318 | 102,902 | 8.72 |
| Norcross | 7-AAAAAA | 86.48 | 176,035 | 68,574 | 13.58 |
| Grayson | 8-AAAAAA | 85.73 | 144,444 | 46,104 | 20.69 |
| North Gwinnett | 7-AAAAAA | 84.78 | 130,205 | 42,630 | 22.46 |
| Archer | 8-AAAAAA | 86.10 | 122,777 | 41,842 | 22.90 |
| Mill Creek | 7-AAAAAA | 84.05 | 118,655 | 36,964 | 26.05 |
| Dacula | 8-AAAAAA | 84.99 | 107,208 | 32,973 | 29.33 |
| Lovejoy | 2-AAAAAA | 78.94 | 63,354 | 12,534 | 78.78 |
| Tucker | 2-AAAAAA | 78.64 | 54,640 | 10,802 | 91.58 |
| Camden County | 1-AAAAAA | 80.52 | 37,715 | 7,869 | 126.08 |
| Peachtree Ridge | 7-AAAAAA | 79.61 | 32,955 | 7,550 | 131.45 |
| Milton | 5-AAAAAA | 78.37 | 36,098 | 6,503 | 152.78 |
| Valdosta | 1-AAAAAA | 78.33 | 24,731 | 4,371 | 227.78 |
| Etowah | 5-AAAAAA | 75.91 | 14,864 | 2,303 | 433.22 |
| Walton | 5-AAAAAA | 75.41 | 11,738 | 1,732 | 576.37 |
| Roswell | 5-AAAAAA | 74.42 | 11,097 | 1,474 | 677.43 |
| Alpharetta | 6-AAAAAA | 72.20 | 6,799 | 1,239 | 806.10 |
| Hughes | 3-AAAAAA | 71.56 | 12,186 | 1,228 | 813.33 |
| Lee County | 1-AAAAAA | 75.07 | 7,401 | 1,025 | 974.61 |
| North Cobb | 4-AAAAAA | 73.61 | 7,453 | 943 | 1,059.45 |
| Hillgrove | 4-AAAAAA | 73.39 | 6,711 | 845 | 1,182.43 |
| Lowndes | 1-AAAAAA | 73.36 | 4,452 | 537 | 1,861.20 |
| Tift County | 1-AAAAAA | 73.45 | 4,369 | 519 | 1,925.78 |
| Lassiter | 5-AAAAAA | 71.69 | 2,948 | 349 | 2,864.33 |
| Westlake | 3-AAAAAA | 67.87 | 4,186 | 325 | 3,075.92 |
| Collins Hill | 7-AAAAAA | 70.82 | 2,555 | 290 | 3,447.28 |
| Newton | 2-AAAAAA | 67.39 | 2,486 | 202 | 4,949.50 |
| East Coweta | 3-AAAAAA | 66.54 | 2,132 | 157 | 6,368.43 |
Class AAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northside (Warner Robins) | 2-AAAAA | 82.95 | 473,695 | 351,724 | 1.84 |
| Ware County | 3-AAAAA | 78.08 | 257,548 | 149,854 | 5.67 |
| Kell | 7-AAAAA | 75.87 | 214,221 | 102,574 | 8.75 |
| Coffee | 3-AAAAA | 74.80 | 166,278 | 79,016 | 11.66 |
| Gainesville | 8-AAAAA | 73.04 | 144,753 | 69,704 | 13.35 |
| Mays | 6-AAAAA | 73.70 | 113,007 | 49,197 | 19.33 |
| Creekside | 6-AAAAA | 73.41 | 111,791 | 48,002 | 19.83 |
| Stockbridge | 4-AAAAA | 70.06 | 135,285 | 45,357 | 21.05 |
| East Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 68.31 | 71,819 | 24,665 | 39.54 |
| Stephenson | 6-AAAAA | 68.00 | 52,883 | 16,050 | 61.31 |
| Allatoona | 5-AAAAA | 68.80 | 48,737 | 15,645 | 62.92 |
| South Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 66.37 | 40,586 | 11,956 | 82.64 |
| Carver (Columbus) | 1-AAAAA | 64.94 | 44,714 | 10,985 | 90.03 |
| Glynn Academy | 3-AAAAA | 65.06 | 18,576 | 4,453 | 223.57 |
| Dalton | 7-AAAAA | 64.38 | 17,326 | 4,221 | 235.91 |
| Harris County | 1-AAAAA | 61.19 | 22,484 | 4,029 | 247.20 |
| Warner Robins | 2-AAAAA | 64.69 | 16,862 | 3,928 | 253.58 |
| Houston County | 2-AAAAA | 63.99 | 12,478 | 2,761 | 361.19 |
| M. L. King | 6-AAAAA | 61.70 | 6,865 | 1,305 | 765.28 |
| Lanier | 8-AAAAA | 58.92 | 5,814 | 973 | 1,026.75 |
| Jones County | 2-AAAAA | 60.69 | 5,517 | 921 | 1,084.78 |
| New Manchester | 5-AAAAA | 59.91 | 4,959 | 854 | 1,169.96 |
| Alexander | 5-AAAAA | 59.58 | 3,090 | 543 | 1,840.62 |
| Mundy's Mill | 4-AAAAA | 57.41 | 2,967 | 435 | 2,297.85 |
| Brunswick | 3-AAAAA | 57.25 | 1,318 | 167 | 5,987.02 |
| LaGrange | 1-AAAAA | 53.46 | 1,488 | 152 | 6,577.95 |
| Clarke Central | 8-AAAAA | 53.91 | 887 | 107 | 9,344.79 |
Class AAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | 8-AAAA | 97.12 | 838,427 | 769,265 | 0.30 |
| Sandy Creek | 5-AAAA | 81.17 | 226,855 | 104,764 | 8.55 |
| Marist | 6-AAAA | 75.47 | 219,521 | 41,961 | 22.83 |
| St. Pius X | 6-AAAA | 72.02 | 177,464 | 24,590 | 39.67 |
| Cartersville | 7-AAAA | 71.09 | 212,068 | 24,253 | 40.23 |
| Griffin | 4-AAAA | 70.79 | 176,267 | 20,053 | 48.87 |
| Woodward Academy | 5-AAAA | 68.95 | 52,266 | 7,041 | 141.03 |
| Whitewater | 5-AAAA | 65.57 | 28,906 | 2,831 | 352.23 |
| Burke County | 3-AAAA | 62.50 | 12,064 | 1,597 | 625.17 |
| Mary Persons | 2-AAAA | 61.72 | 9,287 | 971 | 1,028.87 |
| Thomas County Central | 1-AAAA | 60.96 | 14,537 | 915 | 1,091.90 |
| Cairo | 1-AAAA | 60.08 | 7,824 | 505 | 1,979.20 |
| Carrollton | 5-AAAA | 60.81 | 6,611 | 445 | 2,246.19 |
| West Laurens | 2-AAAA | 57.88 | 3,888 | 255 | 3,920.57 |
| North Oconee | 8-AAAA | 58.66 | 5,157 | 219 | 4,565.21 |
Class AAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington County | 3-AAA | 81.87 | 709,320 | 428,718 | 1.33 |
| Calhoun | 6-AAA | 81.29 | 702,937 | 407,779 | 1.45 |
| Blessed Trinity | 4-AAA | 73.95 | 208,088 | 84,809 | 10.79 |
| Jefferson | 8-AAA | 68.65 | 100,973 | 29,793 | 32.56 |
| Westminster (Atlanta) | 4-AAA | 66.61 | 73,902 | 18,528 | 52.97 |
| Peach County | 2-AAA | 60.71 | 46,130 | 7,648 | 129.75 |
| Cedar Grove | 4-AAA | 62.16 | 30,747 | 5,652 | 175.93 |
| Hart County | 8-AAA | 61.09 | 30,702 | 5,290 | 188.04 |
| Westside (Macon) | 2-AAA | 57.33 | 22,987 | 3,043 | 327.62 |
| Elbert County | 8-AAA | 59.57 | 19,659 | 2,990 | 333.45 |
| Central (Carrollton) | 5-AAA | 58.18 | 21,012 | 2,979 | 334.68 |
| Pierce County | 1-AAA | 53.76 | 10,609 | 1,038 | 962.39 |
| Cook | 1-AAA | 55.93 | 5,543 | 654 | 1,528.05 |
| Adairsville | 6-AAA | 51.66 | 5,451 | 403 | 2,480.39 |
| Dodge County | 1-AAA | 52.44 | 2,403 | 204 | 4,900.96 |
| Appling County | 1-AAA | 51.71 | 1,951 | 149 | 6,710.41 |
| West Hall | 7-AAA | 44.53 | 3,042 | 119 | 8,402.36 |
Class AA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedictine | 2-AA | 75.03 | 660,603 | 484,666 | 1.06 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | 6-AA | 70.98 | 477,209 | 263,133 | 2.80 |
| Fitzgerald | 1-AA | 62.96 | 250,058 | 96,270 | 9.39 |
| Vidalia | 2-AA | 62.66 | 222,263 | 74,889 | 12.35 |
| Brooks County | 1-AA | 58.54 | 121,380 | 36,418 | 26.46 |
| Lovett | 6-AA | 56.04 | 70,696 | 18,161 | 54.06 |
| Pace Academy | 6-AA | 51.58 | 30,079 | 5,496 | 180.95 |
| Thomasville | 1-AA | 50.07 | 25,025 | 4,309 | 231.07 |
| Dublin | 3-AA | 46.84 | 25,743 | 3,774 | 263.97 |
| Lamar County | 4-AA | 45.53 | 21,470 | 2,718 | 366.92 |
| Washington-Wilkes | 8-AA | 45.04 | 20,022 | 2,573 | 387.65 |
| Heard County | 5-AA | 45.43 | 12,158 | 1,497 | 667.00 |
| Macon County | 4-AA | 44.98 | 11,621 | 1,448 | 689.61 |
| Darlington | 7-AA | 42.18 | 11,934 | 1,068 | 935.33 |
| Bowdon | 5-AA | 44.65 | 9,158 | 1,061 | 941.51 |
| Rabun County | 8-AA | 41.72 | 9,899 | 915 | 1,091.90 |
| Early County | 1-AA | 43.58 | 3,462 | 391 | 2,556.54 |
| Bleckley County | 4-AA | 41.02 | 4,171 | 361 | 2,769.08 |
| Jefferson County | 3-AA | 39.52 | 3,221 | 248 | 4,031.26 |
| Model | 7-AA | 38.23 | 3,012 | 192 | 5,207.33 |
Class A-Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion County | 4-A | 53.51 | 562,885 | 393,768 | 1.54 |
| Hawkinsville | 4-A | 49.16 | 327,903 | 179,329 | 4.58 |
| Irwin County | 2-A | 48.17 | 330,820 | 159,698 | 5.26 |
| Charlton County | 2-A | 46.31 | 244,703 | 105,584 | 8.47 |
| Dooly County | 4-A | 43.96 | 163,602 | 65,064 | 14.37 |
| Clinch County | 2-A | 41.81 | 122,072 | 39,924 | 24.05 |
| Commerce | 8-A | 36.58 | 73,287 | 16,706 | 58.86 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 3-A | 38.43 | 62,470 | 16,567 | 59.36 |
| Lincoln County | 7-A | 39.42 | 49,718 | 14,256 | 69.15 |
| Johnson County | 3-A | 33.02 | 11,691 | 2,126 | 469.37 |
| Claxton | 3-A | 33.03 | 10,162 | 1,873 | 532.90 |
| Mitchell County | 1-A | 26.44 | 9,914 | 1,018 | 981.32 |
| Wilcox County | 2-A | 31.06 | 6,368 | 924 | 1,081.25 |
| Trion | 6-A | 29.62 | 6,147 | 817 | 1,222.99 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 6-A | 31.36 | 4,540 | 733 | 1,363.26 |
| Turner County | 2-A | 28.87 | 5,540 | 711 | 1,405.47 |
| Greenville | 4-A | 30.14 | 4,029 | 572 | 1,747.25 |
| Telfair County | 2-A | 25.15 | 1,385 | 129 | 7,750.94 |
Class A-Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 5-A | 59.76 | 512,352 | 354,885 | 1.82 |
| Mount Paran Christian | 6-A | 57.12 | 467,952 | 280,784 | 2.56 |
| Aquinas | 7-A | 52.22 | 335,941 | 150,767 | 5.63 |
| Calvary Day | 3-A | 50.28 | 269,307 | 109,172 | 8.16 |
| Landmark Christian | 5-A | 46.12 | 101,414 | 32,079 | 30.17 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | 8-A | 42.03 | 97,829 | 23,450 | 41.64 |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | 6-A | 43.55 | 68,507 | 17,875 | 54.94 |
| Savannah Christian | 3-A | 43.22 | 51,576 | 12,996 | 75.95 |
| Tattnall Square | 7-A | 41.97 | 48,729 | 11,201 | 88.28 |
| Stratford Academy | 7-A | 39.03 | 15,541 | 2,863 | 348.28 |
| Our Lady of Mercy | 5-A | 36.27 | 9,907 | 1,591 | 627.54 |
| Athens Christian | 8-A | 31.13 | 7,273 | 728 | 1,372.63 |
| Pacelli | 4-A | 34.55 | 4,610 | 615 | 1,625.02 |
| First Presbyterian | 7-A | 33.72 | 3,118 | 393 | 2,543.53 |
| Brookstone | 4-A | 33.70 | 3,141 | 392 | 2,550.02 |
| George Walton Academy | 8-A | 26.32 | 1,420 | 101 | 9,899.99 |
