High School Sports Blog

Maxwell playoff projections after Round One

By Loren Maxwell
Nov 13, 2018

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2018 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.

Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Colquitt County#1 (1 - AAAAAAA)11-0104.7478.504.41961,690.69903,293.44813,972.54729,814.700.37
Grayson#1 (8 - AAAAAAA)9-286.7181.463.32933,080.43722,810.25544,140.80123,462.357.10
Parkview#1 (7 - AAAAAAA)11-086.1186.082.48751,008.83559,276.96106,056.6362,824.6014.92
Hillgrove#1 (3 - AAAAAAA)11-079.1884.572.26609,211.74447,270.09180,104.3824,724.1339.45
North Gwinnett#1 (6 - AAAAAAA)9-278.4487.092.02888,251.0979,347.5233,682.5314,017.2770.34
Lowndes#2 (1 - AAAAAAA)8-377.5485.892.02687,616.57207,767.28110,466.5113,471.3373.23
Tift County#4 (1 - AAAAAAA)7-477.7387.212.24899,257.35303,640.5029,752.6711,910.0182.96
Walton#2 (4 - AAAAAAA)10-175.8286.101.73390,788.26250,327.1177,599.318,328.57119.07
Archer#2 (8 - AAAAAAA)9-276.1589.181.40248,991.17131,841.0911,598.894,242.81234.69
Milton#1 (5 - AAAAAAA)9-270.8484.761.90630,881.43215,911.1451,687.663,755.70265.26
McEachern#3 (3 - AAAAAAA)8-373.5990.361.0638,309.3115,527.244,683.041,464.69681.74
Westlake#1 (2 - AAAAAAA)9-268.5786.321.39312,383.4355,369.4819,288.601,162.06859.54
Mill Creek#2 (6 - AAAAAAA)8-366.5685.951.47369,118.5786,491.6613,963.97709.391,408.67
Norcross#2 (7 - AAAAAAA)7-461.4487.021.0866,919.5714,052.992,748.7788.9011,247.18
West Forsyth#2 (5 - AAAAAAA)6-558.7989.661.11111,748.911,831.80178.5918.1455,114.02
East Coweta#3 (2 - AAAAAAA)4-754.7688.751.11100,742.655,241.4475.125.35186,880.93

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Lee County#1 (1)11-090.9558.764.62992,832.46913,965.32883,526.88828,783.450.21
Valdosta#2 (1)7-466.9568.622.71782,109.14536,811.82343,750.8948,681.1819.54
Creekview#1 (6)11-067.2670.772.10920,999.1184,371.0862,052.3136,956.7226.06
Northside (Warner Robins)#3 (1)6-563.9768.322.78903,261.44562,867.79282,700.1832,708.9029.57
Sequoyah#2 (6)9-260.2068.862.37807,679.18383,586.04166,362.9314,739.8566.84
Harrison#4 (6)9-260.2569.652.29776,780.11473,938.3830,301.9512,959.7676.16
Allatoona#3 (6)8-361.4070.661.99604,200.90249,334.10120,575.7811,647.2184.86
Coffee#4 (1)8-358.0669.752.24800,432.55408,571.3521,718.838,185.84121.16
Dacula#1 (8)9-256.0970.421.59395,799.10134,139.2652,810.373,442.07289.52
Glynn Academy#1 (2)7-453.0970.701.33217,890.8679,714.8226,123.431,345.68742.12
Lanier#2 (8)8-346.7070.801.30223,219.8974,478.411,445.44242.454,123.51
Creekside#1 (5)8-344.7770.141.23192,320.8235,140.155,565.97142.427,020.29
Richmond Hill#3 (2)5-543.0970.761.24199,567.4543,011.85595.8374.0113,511.47
Bradwell Institute#4 (2)5-642.7171.301.1296,738.5618,406.022,110.4444.9922,227.69
Habersham Central#3 (8)7-443.7874.411.0879,000.89907.38201.4526.5337,688.21
Effingham County#2 (2)7-442.7274.421.017,167.54756.22157.3118.9352,826.92

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Warner Robins#1 (1)10-180.7365.233.67928,839.63889,950.89464,161.76385,679.851.59
Rome#1 (7)11-082.4568.773.40969,704.73684,640.09402,582.78343,579.181.91
Dutchtown#1 (4)11-074.1971.762.49963,490.85311,731.90125,747.7490,675.4210.03
Stockbridge#2 (4)10-165.7665.063.07945,473.55691,539.31362,712.7269,752.2613.34
Buford#1 (8)9-267.9367.362.53680,267.20478,009.64303,683.6768,992.1113.49
Wayne County#1 (2)11-060.5868.211.91575,908.61219,961.71101,654.6612,795.8377.15
Kell#2 (7)9-261.4669.661.58319,732.80168,575.3178,405.3810,629.9293.07
Carrollton#3 (7)9-258.3267.492.27868,869.51287,886.5898,721.3410,232.9796.72
Bainbridge#2 (1)6-558.6069.281.62424,091.39133,453.3453,229.025,653.31175.89
Ware County#2 (2)8-356.1273.291.1271,160.3747,286.713,975.911,227.51813.66
East Paulding#4 (7)7-452.1772.531.63586,375.0642,454.902,497.06582.391,716.06
Clarke Central#3 (8)7-447.6072.661.43413,624.9420,307.50782.25127.487,843.47
Cedar Shoals#2 (8)8-348.8776.771.0330,295.272,666.68206.6537.3226,790.89
Loganville#4 (8)5-640.4969.151.14131,130.4912,259.901,024.2320.4148,993.44
New Hampstead#4 (2)5-538.3169.151.0654,526.458,314.21568.989.19108,860.37
Griffin#2 (3)8-342.5476.641.0436,509.15961.3445.854.86205,835.57

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Mary Persons#1 (2)11-084.0467.433.81989,656.50795,838.60596,624.60432,804.441.31
Blessed Trinity#1 (7)11-077.5063.973.82923,579.08862,028.34716,126.50316,550.142.16
Cartersville#1 (5)11-075.3468.433.18902,119.53821,416.99297,864.62161,670.025.19
St. Pius X#1 (8)10-171.6575.011.87625,509.48145,287.1771,204.8932,814.8529.47
Troup#2 (5)10-165.8169.772.27595,078.47499,181.19148,072.6931,209.3231.04
Pickens#1 (6)11-060.8869.951.80404,921.53313,958.9574,193.1110,689.1392.55
Marist#2 (7)9-267.6076.831.46374,490.5258,450.1322,326.488,371.37118.45
Burke County#2 (3)8-353.2470.531.64564,144.5859,404.0418,572.101,403.75711.38
Baldwin#1 (3)6-553.4572.022.00864,946.89121,615.978,358.901,255.95795.21
North Oconee#2 (8)9-253.6671.351.1376,420.9241,142.6413,203.711,035.46964.75
Cairo#1 (1)9-250.3069.421.79632,742.43137,971.5716,259.42945.901,056.20
Ridgeland#2 (6)8-354.2173.981.1697,880.4753,201.393,553.84564.751,769.69
Eastside#1 (4)11-049.5870.081.48435,855.4237,424.989,851.01537.001,861.19
Thomson#3 (3)5-645.9470.561.42367,257.5748,888.303,721.48145.316,880.90
Columbus#3 (1)7-435.9673.561.14135,053.113,765.6544.001.53654,390.42
Woodward Academy#3 (4)7-439.5176.651.0110,343.50424.1022.671.08921,814.75

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Cedar Grove#1 (5)10-175.3359.843.78924,909.37812,484.22625,137.57420,149.281.38
Calhoun#1 (6)11-068.8760.513.28837,942.73807,034.87440,006.76198,010.144.05
Peach County#1 (4)9-269.9362.013.23944,590.48684,485.36407,655.69193,159.614.18
Monroe Area#1 (8)11-067.0562.892.77753,060.09643,493.35250,837.82119,937.307.34
Greater Atlanta Christian#1 (7)9-262.1066.131.97633,439.29218,789.8592,541.0128,556.0034.02
Benedictine#1 (3)10-157.5665.141.89699,727.38129,133.1051,576.8713,872.8871.08
Dawson County#2 (7)10-156.9866.381.45246,939.91165,107.4132,982.648,515.80116.43
Westminster (Atlanta)#3 (5)7-457.7167.911.49366,560.7189,045.2427,786.246,443.16154.20
Lovett#2 (5)6-553.5265.571.33162,057.27137,662.9628,260.534,856.49204.91
Pierce County#1 (2)11-051.3064.471.84668,852.57150,301.6421,641.143,636.54273.99
North Hall#3 (7)9-251.3067.481.1175,090.6328,336.997,200.021,209.88825.53
Westside (Macon)#2 (4)8-350.1866.981.34300,272.6230,045.707,227.781,109.82900.04
Jackson#3 (4)7-445.3565.921.38331,147.4341,097.603,396.15347.612,875.80
Pike County#4 (4)8-338.7064.811.59557,741.2434,979.861,988.8999.8010,019.53
Liberty County#3 (2)7-342.6567.891.0655,409.527,679.54898.0063.9415,638.05
Jenkins#3 (3)8-335.3064.821.46442,258.7620,322.31862.8831.7331,515.41

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Rockmart#1 (7)11-068.3156.483.31867,151.00650,507.15477,178.73319,513.772.13
Dublin#1 (3)10-166.4054.813.38836,443.43687,136.93543,756.54310,150.332.22
Dodge County#2 (3)10-160.2859.192.33820,538.48285,292.60152,222.1575,314.6512.28
Brooks County#1 (1)9-259.8959.682.13594,114.27340,356.41133,683.9164,973.4714.39
Hapeville Charter#1 (6)10-159.2659.152.24681,787.80356,332.65135,066.5363,741.0214.69
Fitzgerald#2 (1)8-356.0857.892.19635,294.85378,816.96133,172.7244,532.2221.46
Rabun County#1 (8)10-153.1156.022.44848,128.84426,671.81133,398.8036,685.6226.26
Heard County#1 (5)9-253.0557.042.14792,818.65212,549.18107,214.8829,363.3833.06
Washington County#3 (3)9-257.1661.591.68405,885.73191,874.8658,649.6924,948.8839.08
Swainsboro#1 (2)9-249.4558.321.59364,705.15170,689.3342,253.758,924.59111.05
Callaway#2 (5)9-252.7261.471.46318,212.20111,436.0826,056.258,646.31114.66
Thomasville#3 (1)7-451.1660.311.28163,556.5779,624.2233,623.738,057.86123.10
Bremen#3 (5)9-250.6362.551.19132,849.0042,925.0112,868.833,748.47265.78
Jefferson County#1 (4)9-244.0061.131.21179,461.5221,275.244,273.91780.631,280.02
Douglass#2 (6)10-140.7159.571.23207,181.3520,689.674,461.35461.432,166.17
Chattooga#2 (7)9-236.9958.981.18151,871.1623,821.912,118.24157.396,352.73

Class A - Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Irwin County#1 (2)10-071.9251.614.09988,421.97932,583.44644,406.71521,834.670.92
Pelham#4 (1)10-065.6953.723.51973,532.15948,532.97344,910.25242,284.123.13
Clinch County#6 (2)9-161.0852.803.53920,415.07806,423.75616,605.09188,236.924.31
Marion County#2 (4)10-050.4753.433.08957,629.15793,906.57292,173.4239,841.0224.10
Mount Zion (Carroll)#3 (6)9-142.2456.392.02810,306.05149,096.0654,187.943,613.23275.76
Mitchell County#8 (1)8-246.3762.251.71648,168.8848,287.677,346.282,138.08466.71
Schley County#7 (4)8-237.6756.791.92731,255.15166,593.4223,927.471,051.58949.95
Charlton County#11 (2)8-337.6858.451.1279,584.9334,409.609,152.27402.602,482.84
Commerce#9 (8)9-241.3462.821.37351,831.1217,332.741,871.58388.162,575.26
Chattahoochee County#12 (1)8-332.3861.291.67636,452.5428,838.43873.9290.5111,047.18
Trion#10 (6)8-328.7457.371.30268,744.8532,059.182,300.3943.6522,906.20
Emanuel County Institute#13 (3)7-430.7261.651.0426,467.8513,022.90340.9730.7232,549.95
Dooly County#14 (4)7-428.8058.121.20189,693.9510,070.601,405.3726.8237,280.60
Greene County#5 (7)8-225.7061.361.37363,547.469,605.70175.0510.1898,221.51
Miller County#16 (1)7-328.5362.851.0111,578.031,796.1675.245.62178,059.34
Montgomery County#18 (3)8-320.3757.381.0542,370.857,440.83248.062.10476,478.53

Class A - Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Rec Rating Draw AvgDepth Qtrfinals Semifinals Finals Champion Odds
Eagle's Landing Christian#3 (5)9-154.5639.803.81919,012.14843,866.71675,199.07372,027.641.69
Athens Academy#1 (8)10-055.3040.803.72924,561.37841,499.37593,281.61364,139.441.75
Prince Avenue Christian#4 (8)9-150.8244.043.06862,237.55717,216.18318,033.93163,654.785.11
Savannah Christian#2 (3)9-143.9344.002.51700,986.52554,233.66197,810.5761,724.8315.20
North Cobb Christian#5 (6)9-137.7146.982.05794,782.81202,251.3743,060.1310,825.8091.37
Hebron Christian Academy#18 (8)6-536.4946.931.53299,013.48182,964.2736,524.686,798.03146.10
Calvary Day#8 (3)9-135.0447.201.88741,733.88107,146.2726,086.145,480.30181.47
Darlington#6 (6)8-233.1445.471.94792,982.86106,174.5137,978.705,462.20182.08
Fellowship Christian#7 (6)9-132.7545.951.79591,942.16170,941.1726,879.843,748.29265.79
Wesleyan#13 (5)7-433.5648.951.21137,762.4561,071.389,576.761,813.08550.55
Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)#14 (5)8-331.3547.271.1380,987.8639,617.8212,359.981,540.35648.20
Riverside Military Academy#23 (8)6-530.1146.621.51408,057.8491,860.9011,756.951,323.98754.30
Mount Vernon Presbyterian#16 (5)8-331.3248.721.1275,438.6334,333.896,345.661,020.22979.18
Holy Innocents#24 (5)6-525.5748.311.28258,266.1217,020.472,001.31205.124,874.10
Brookstone#21 (4)7-425.2548.601.23205,217.1919,461.071,614.46161.196,203.01
Aquinas#11 (7)9-220.7946.691.22207,017.1410,340.961,490.2174.7413,378.07

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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